Have the Innings Caught Up With Buehrle?

[chitownsportsfan]

(This thread is pure speculation based off a few facts, I am not suggesting anything other than the possiblity that MB might need some rest, please take everything as speculation until further information comes along or MB just continues to suck. I am very appreciative of MB's talents and am just throwing this out there for thought.)

 

I think this is a legimate question, spurred by the talk of a "dead arm", and MB's general suckitude lately.

 

Here are MB's innings over his career:

 

2001 - 22 years old - 221.1 IP

2002 - 23 - 239

2003 - 24 - 230.1

2004 - 25 - 245.1

2005 - 26 - 236.2 reg season and 23.1 in playoffs + WS

 

That's a lot of innings already pitched as a 26 year old and 4+ years of over 230 IP is pretty insane in this day and age.

 

Of course, there are more variables that can affect a pitcher's health than just IP--things like pitch counts, delivery, and pitch selection (is he throwing a violent overhand curve, obviously not) can all factor into a "dead arm" or even a more serious problem.

 

Is MB just experiencing a "dead arm" period? I think those of us that have played baseball during a longer season--50 or so games--have probably all experienced a time during spring training or in the middle of season where your arm just does not feel good--you might not have any structural damage--but it sure is harder to throw when your elbow is tight and your tricep area is tingling with every lob into the bucket.

 

There is clearly a difference between pain and injury and MB might just be going through what every seasoned baseball player goes through, but if MB is feeling anything at all--I hope the Sox provide every resource available to get him back on track. Except HGH of course...

Is their any structural damage to MB's shoulder and elbow? I certainly hope not.

 

Will MB bounce back? Should he now be on strict pitchcounts? Does he need the "El Duque treatment" of a few weeks off?

 

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing BMAC spot start for Buehlre a few times this 2nd half, in fact, I think that's a great idea. It will help ease MB's load heading into a likely playoff berth, and BMAC gets to actually see some meaningful innings. I doubt Oz would ever do this, but if I was the manager, I would at least consider it if MB continues to struggle with "a dead arm".

Edited July 19, 2006 by chitownsportsfan

[Rowand44]

Uh oh. This thread looks very familiar.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Uh oh. This thread looks very familiar.

 

 

At least he didn't bump that thread.

[Chisoxfn]

IIRC, Mark has said that he feels really good. I'd buy the dead arm theory if it looked like his stuff wasn't there. He seems to be throwing about the same as always, the only difference is teams have been real agressive against him all while he's left his pitches up.

 

He fixes his command and makes an adjustment or two and he should be golden to be the Buerhle we've all came to expect.

[Rowand44]

IIRC, Mark has said that he feels really good. I'd buy the dead arm theory if it looked like his stuff wasn't there. He seems to be throwing about the same as always, the only difference is teams have been real agressive against him all while he's left his pitches up.

 

He fixes his command and makes an adjustment or two and he should be golden to be the Buerhle we've all came to expect.

Everything is just up with him. Every time he throws his change up right now, it's up and away to righties and way out of the zone. Buehrle will be fine, he's really the least of my worries.

[Kalapse]

Dwight Gooden, Vida Blue, Frank Viola, Ramon Martinez, Britt Burns, and even Larmar Hoyt who are they? Pitchers who had good to great 3-5 years to start their careers but then things didn't work out for them to have long productive careers.

[chitownsportsfan]

Uh oh. This thread looks very familiar.

 

Please enlighten me. Was there a rather infamous thread on this already?

[Spiegle]

its a good point, although i like to think of Buehrle as an indescructable workhorse... he may need to be on a shorter leash for a while (which i have no problem with at all, give him 5-6 innings and let BMac get 2 after he is out). Or give BMac a start or two in his place, I dont really think anything bad could happen from that, and since I (and i'd say a lot here) believe that he will be in the rotation next year, giving him a few more starts could be a very good thing too

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Please enlighten me. Was there a rather infamous thread on this already?

 

 

If you dont know then dont worry about it. Thats a really sore spot around here.

[Kalapse]

Please enlighten me. Was there a rather infamous thread on this already?

A few but sometimes you gotta discuss the continued rise and the continued fall of the same damn pitcher.

[Chisoxfn]

Dwight Gooden, Vida Blue, Frank Viola, Ramon Martinez, Britt Burns, and even Larmar Hoyt who are they? Pitchers who had good to great 3-5 years to start their careers but then things didn't work out for them to have long productive careers.

Ramon Martinez: injuries

Dwight Gooden: Druggy

 

Can't really speak on what happened to the others since they were a bit before my time. I don't think Mark is any of them. I think Mark is a Glavine like pitcher.

[Rowand44]

Please enlighten me. Was there a rather infamous thread on this already?

Ha ya, don't worry about. You weren't around when the thread made it's debut but it's probably one of the more famous threads in this site's history. "The Rise and Decline of Mark Buehrle," or something along those lines. I believe it was in early 04 and Mark was struggling and a thread pretty similar to this, about all the innings he's pitched early in his career and so on. That thread lived forever and seemingly got bumped everytime he pitched poorly that season.

Edited July 19, 2006 by Rowand44

[chitownsportsfan]

If you dont know then dont worry about it. Thats a really sore spot around here.

 

Cool, I will live in ignorance.

 

Ha ya, don't worry about. You weren't around when the thread made it's debut but it's probably one of the more famous threads in this site's history. "The Rise and Decline of Mark Buehrle," or something along those lines. I believe it was in early 04 and Mark was struggling and a thread pretty similar to this, about all the innings he's pitched early in his career and so on. That thread lived forever and seemingly got bumped everytime he pitched poorly that season.

 

Oh yea, I do vaquely remember that thread. I was probably just lurking at the time, and well, the drugs man, the drugs.

 

I'm not saying MB is due for some huge fall, however, I think caution is the name of the game for this point on.

 

Ramon Martinez: injuries

Dwight Gooden: Druggy

 

Can't really speak on what happened to the others since they were a bit before my time. I don't think Mark is any of them. I think Mark is a Glavine like pitcher.

 

I agree with this thought, soft tossing lefties that somehow pitch above their "stuff". Hopefully MB can continue to emulate Glavine's career track, although this year has been a detour.

[Kalapse]

Dwight Gooden: Druggy

Dude, nobody is above becoming a drug addict.

[Chisoxfn]

Dude, nobody is above becoming a drug addict.

[Rowand44]

Dude, nobody is above becoming a drug addict.

BAhahahaha, solid.

[chitownsportsfan]

BAhahahaha, solid.

 

LOL, f***, maybe I should have just started another media watch.

[whitesoxin']

Can't really speak on what happened to the others since they were a bit before my time. I don't think Mark is any of them. I think Mark is a Glavine like pitcher.

You don't think Buehrle will win 300 games, do you? I would love if Buehrle had the same type of career as Glavine, but I don't think he will get as many runs. It seems like even when he's on Mark just pitches to keep us in the game and when you do that you will have a lot of no decisions.

[Kalapse]

LOL, f***, maybe I should have just started another media watch.

The ironic thing is, you've replied to this exact post once before . . .

 

Dwight Gooden, Vida Blue, Frank Viola, Ramon Martinez, Britt Burns, and even Larmar Hoyt who are they? Pitchers who had good to great 3-5 years to start their careers but then things didn't work out for them to have long productive careers.

 

If you're saying that MB will suffer a similiar fate bacause he's similiar to those guys--you are dead wrong.

MB

is in his 7th MLB season first off, so I'm not sure where the "3-5" good years thing comes in.

 

Ok, the guys you compared him to: Doc Gooden has drug problems--hard drug problems--he is not a good comparison.

 

Frank Viola was a damn good pitcher. 9 times over 200ip, and a career ERA+ of 113. Heck, he pitched over 250IP 5 times. Not a HOFER, but certainly a good player, with a long and solid career. If MB has a Fran Viola career that would be awesome.

 

Martinez only made it over 200IP 4 times in his 13 year career, and finished with a 105 ERA+--he is a decidely mediocre pitcher. His first 5 full seasons--yes, he did flash some potential. However, he didn't do it the level MB is doing it, not even close. His age 26 season he had an ERA+ of 99. MB's age 26 ERA+ was 143.

 

Screw the other two guys, your argument was poor, I hope this proves it.

[chitownsportsfan]

The ironic thing is, you've replied to this exact post once before . . .

 

+ 3 for the rare correct use of "ironic".

 

Thing is though, MB didn't have an ERA of over 4 at the time. Things change.

 

and damnit, no more sorting through my old posts! Those are like, in the history, dude. You need an old post? I can get you an old post dude.

Edited July 19, 2006 by chitownsportsfan

[Dam8610]

IIRC, Mark has said that he feels really good. I'd buy the dead arm theory if it looked like his stuff wasn't there. He seems to be throwing about the same as always, the only difference is teams have been real agressive against him all while he's left his pitches up.

 

He fixes his command and makes an adjustment or two and he should be golden to be the Buerhle we've all came to expect.

 

I think it is dead arm though because he tends to have a period every year where he struggles because he can't get the ball down. He went through it at about this time last year, had it in June of 04 (although he was up and down a lot that year), and had the same thing in May of 03 (kind of early for dead arm, but it could happen). Once he starts getting the ball down again (hopefully VERY soon), he'll be fine.

[chitownsportsfan]

I think it is dead arm though because he tends to have a period every year where he struggles because he can't get the ball down. He went through it at about this time last year, had it in June of 04 (although he was up and down a lot that year), and had the same thing in May of 03 (kind of early for dead arm, but it could happen). Once he starts getting the ball down again (hopefully VERY soon), he'll be fine.

 

Thank you. An honest response to an honest question.

[Balta1701]

I just have trouble believing the dead arm theories that crop up with Mark, based entirely on the evidence you cite as the reason he might be worn out.

 

2001 - 22 years old - 221.1 IP

2002 - 23 - 239

2003 - 24 - 230.1

2004 - 25 - 245.1

2005 - 26 - 236.2 reg season and 23.1 in playoffs + WS

 

In other words, Mark has been doing this for several years. Even pitching the extra 20 innings last year, he didn't go THAT far beyond his career highs in innings. So here would be my question; why would the innings catch up to him after 5 years when it didn't after 4 years?

 

If he was having some sort of genuine health problem, or we heard rumors of his arm being sore (i.e. like we heard during the W.S. last year), maybe it would be a concern. But I just can't buy that a 27 year old with a 5 year history of pitching 230+ innings is suddenly going to hit an innings wall in the middle of a season that he's never found before.

[dmbjeff]

dead arm is more for guys who are flame throwers. look at freddy for instance, previous fastball in the low 90's now its in the mid to high 80's. i dont think mark has lost velocity and velocity isn't why he is good. its location for him and he has said himself, he as left too many pitches over the middle. if he has a problem its either in mechanics or the brain.

[Dam8610]

I just have trouble believing the dead arm theories that crop up with Mark, based entirely on the evidence you cite as the reason he might be worn out.

 

2001 - 22 years old - 221.1 IP

2002 - 23 - 239

2003 - 24 - 230.1

2004 - 25 - 245.1

2005 - 26 - 236.2 reg season and 23.1 in playoffs + WS

 

In other words, Mark has been doing this for several years. Even pitching the extra 20 innings last year, he didn't go THAT far beyond his career highs in innings. So here would be my question; why would the innings catch up to him after 5 years when it didn't after 4 years?

 

If he was having some sort of genuine health problem, or we heard rumors of his arm being sore (i.e. like we heard during the W.S. last year), maybe it would be a concern. But I just can't buy that a 27 year old with a 5 year history of pitching 230+ innings is suddenly going to hit an innings wall in the middle of a season that he's never found before.

 

He's found that wall several times before. Last year it was in July, in 04, he seemed to hit it thrice, in 03, he hit it in May. When he gets the ball up, he gets hit, and there's at least one period every year in which that happens.