Small Ball, Where Art Thou?

[LVSoxFan]

If you think about it this team is more like the 2004 Sox without the five-hole in the rotation. Well, okay, maybe with that same five-hole.

 

Either way, the entire mantra of 2005 was pitching and defense, moving baserunners. It won us astounding success. Yes I KNOW we did not "smallball" our way through the playoffs, but let's not kid ourselves that it's not what got us through the regular season.

 

And yet this year, we have the big bombers and what has it gotten us (granted, second or third best record in baseball, but you know what I mean). I would GLADLY trade the HRs and 20-9 games for:

 

-A decent bunt. We did this relentlessly last year--what has happened to this approach?

 

-A stolen base. Pods is a non-issue because he's rarely ON base anymore. Yet nobody else even attempts, except maybe Ozuna. Who's not even a starter.

 

-Timely hits with RISP. It doesn't have to be a grand slam. A single will do.

 

-When was the last time you saw us turn a double-play?

 

-Too many times I've heard that the pitchers lucked out this year because they give up the runs but know our offense can score it back. RED FLAG. That was an IMMEDIATE red flag to me because it abandons our 2005 approach.

 

-Hitting to opposite field. Remember how good we were at that last year?

 

In other words, the things that made us champs last year all seem to be MIA right now.

[NorthSideSox72]

If you think about it this team is more like the 2004 Sox without the five-hole in the rotation. Well, okay, maybe with that same five-hole.

 

Either way, the entire mantra of 2005 was pitching and defense, moving baserunners. It won us astounding success. Yes I KNOW we did not "smallball" our way through the playoffs, but let's not kid ourselves that it's not what got us through the regular season.

 

And yet this year, we have the big bombers and what has it gotten us (granted, second or third best record in baseball, but you know what I mean). I would GLADLY trade the HRs and 20-9 games for:

 

-A decent bunt. We did this relentlessly last year--what has happened to this approach?

 

-A stolen base. Pods is a non-issue because he's rarely ON base anymore. Yet nobody else even attempts, except maybe Ozuna. Who's not even a starter.

 

-Timely hits with RISP. It doesn't have to be a grand slam. A single will do.

 

-When was the last time you saw us turn a double-play?

 

-Too many times I've heard that the pitchers lucked out this year because they give up the runs but know our offense can score it back. RED FLAG. That was an IMMEDIATE red flag to me because it abandons our 2005 approach.

 

-Hitting to opposite field. Remember how good we were at that last year?

 

In other words, the things that made us champs last year all seem to be MIA right now.

 

1. Last I checked the Sox were first or second in all of baseball in BA with RISP.

 

2. While we definitely suck at small ball this year, that was not THE factor for us last year. It was about 4th on the list after pitching, power hitting and defense.

 

3. How many negative threads can you start in such a short period of time?

[LVSoxFan]

1. Last I checked the Sox were first or second in all of baseball in BA with RISP.

 

2. While we definitely suck at small ball this year, that was not THE factor for us last year. It was about 4th on the list after pitching, power hitting and defense.

 

3. How many negative threads can you start in such a short period of time?

 

Only two, dude!

 

I completely disagree with you on #2. Are you kidding? Ozzie knew this, KW knew this, I knew this. To say that smallball wasn't the main reason for 2005 just defies logic. And history.

 

And whatever the overall average with RISP is, it sure has been AWOL of late. Have you not seen how many men we've left on base in Detroit? NY? Hell I only watched for 45 minutes today at lunch and I saw SEVEN stranded, with one or no outs.

[AbeFroman]

I wouldn't mind seeing Ozzie rip up the club house... You know, go nuts in front of the team and trash some couches and tables and whatnot....

 

Failure to execute was never a problem last year.... It is what is keeping up from firing on all cylinders this year

[LVSoxFan]

I agree. Who can disagree with the Sausage King of Chicago!

[chisoxdavid]

Im sure Ozzie will try to get the team to play small again.

[chitownsportsfan]

Im sure Ozzie will try to get the team to play small again.

 

Another freaking "smallball is the cause of our problems thread"?

 

Get the fish out of here and look at the stats.

 

Pitching is the freaking problem.

 

Edit: loving the new censors.

Edited July 20, 2006 by chitownsportsfan

[jackie hayes]

Only two, dude!

 

I completely disagree with you on #2. Are you kidding? Ozzie knew this, KW knew this, I knew this. To say that smallball wasn't the main reason for 2005 just defies logic. And history.

Or not. Our pitchers were out-of-their-minds good last year. We scored a large percentage of our runs off the homer. We had ONE fast guy. None in the 2nd half. Smallball has nothing to do with the Sox then or now. (Nor should it...)

[chitownsportsfan]

Or not. Our pitchers were out-of-their-minds good last year. We scored a large percentage of our runs off the homer. We had ONE fast guy. None in the 2nd half. Smallball has nothing to do with the Sox then or now. (Nor should it...)

 

 

Ding Ding Ding!

[mr_genius]

I wouldn't mind seeing Ozzie rip up the club house... You know, go nuts in front of the team and trash some couches and tables and whatnot....

 

if he needs some help i'm good at smashing stuff

[The Ginger Kid]

last year's team pitched better than this years. I'll take this offense over that any day.

[DBAHO]

last year's team pitched better than this years. I'll take this offense over that any day.

Yep that's what it boils down to ATM.

 

Still we need to manufacture a run or 2 in these close type of games like today. That means the leadoff hitter needs to get on base more, which didn't happen agains the Tigers.

[soxpride77]

Another freaking "smallball is the cause of our problems thread"?

 

Get the fish out of here and look at the stats.

 

Pitching is the freaking problem.

 

Edit: loving the new censors.

 

I disagree, at least for this series against Detroit, which is the cause of all the panic. The reason we lost two to Detroit is because of our inability to score runs. PK even said it after the game last night, he said that you can't expect to win scoring only two runs. Well, last night we scored 2, and today we scored 1. Detroit is us last year. They have great pitching, and can manufacture runs when they need them.

[DonkeyKongerko]

For some reason, I expected statistics when I saw this thread title.

 

We still turn double plays, when our pitchers give us the chance. We still TRY to bunt. We're still good with RISP overall though not during our current slide.

 

As far as hitting to the opposite field, I don't know who is really better or worse at that than last year or what it really proves. Pods among others isn't hitting to any of the fields right now.

 

4/5 of our rotation was pitching in October last year and it's really showing. We are the 2003 Angels.

[chitownsportsfan]

I disagree, at least for this series against Detroit, which is the cause of all the panic. The reason we lost two to Detroit is because of our inability to score runs. PK even said it after the game last night, he said that you can't expect to win scoring only two runs. Well, last night we scored 2, and today we scored 1. Detroit is us last year. They have great pitching, and can manufacture runs when they need them.

 

Up until these last 2 games, 2 games in an entire season, "manufacturing runs" didn't even enter into the equation.

 

There is only one time smallball has been proven to help a team win a game: that is when trailing or tied in the 8th or 9th innings with the leadoff man aboard.

 

I'm too lazy to find the link to the run expectancy tables, but it's been proven literally tens of thousands of times through empirical evidence that intentionally trying to make an out in an inning is just not a good idea unless you only need 1 run to tie or go ahead in the late innings.

 

Like someone (sorry you) said, the problem was that whenever someone was on, there was already one out.

 

(on a side note, it's amazing that Farmer and Singleton can bring up the "leadoff walks score 40% of the time" stat--which comes from run expectancy tables, and not take the next step and use the same basic idea to show that bunting runners over lowers the mean run expectancy for that inning.

Edited July 21, 2006 by chitownsportsfan

[greg775]

4/5 of our rotation was pitching in October last year and it's really showing. We are the 2003 Angels.

 

I agree with Donkey. This is what's alarming. One thing is for sure. If we make the playoffs this year, it's gonna be an

entirely different scenario from last year.

I just don't think we're going to catch Detroit, nor will anybody. The Tigers are gonna have the best record in baseball

and the Twins, Yankees, Bosox and us will be trying to outdistance ourselves as the best of the rest.

Hope I'm wrong, but the Tigers are the team this year like we were a year ago.

Edited July 21, 2006 by greg775

[chisoxdavid]

Another freaking "smallball is the cause of our problems thread"?

 

Get the fish out of here and look at the stats.

 

Pitching is the freaking problem.

 

Edit: loving the new censors.

Easy there tiger, Im not the one that started the thread. Pitching might be a problem, but we could of won a few more games if we played more small ball. Im not saying its the main reason we arent in first, but there have been games where it seems like we are just waiting for that a HR.

[RME JICO]

The best way to compare it is by asking which team would win head to head, the 2005 Sox vs the 2006 Sox, and what component of the team would make the biggest difference.

 

The main difference to me is the starting pitching. In 2005, the starters went deep into games and had quality starts 90% of the time. That made the bullpen well rested and very effective. The offense in 2005 did just enough to get by, but this year the offense is different with Thome in the lineup.

 

If the starting pitching was close to the 2005 level, the Sox would be a couple games up on Detroit and no one would be questioning the other areas of the team (as much). It seems like the pitching failures are magnifying the rest of the teams shortcomings.

 

One other reason why the Sox are using less small ball is they are better hitters this year (Crede, Dye, Konerko, Iguchi, AJ) all seem to be hitting the ball better, so Ozzie in not going to take the bat out of their hands and make an automatic out with a sacrifice. Then you add Thome into that, and all you have left is Pods and Uribe who are struggling, and BA who is now on fire.

 

The Sox had to win with small ball last year, this year they have more options and weapons. If the pitching wasn't so shaky there would be no complaints about the offense.

[vandy125]

A lot of people are talking about pitching being the issue. Could our pitching be an issue because of the way our defense is playing?

 

I remember last year, we seemed to be really solid on defense, and I am sure that helped our pitchers a ton. This year, to me, our defense just seems ehhh.

 

Are there any decent stats that we can look at to compare the defense between this year and last year?

[RME JICO]

A lot of people are talking about pitching being the issue. Could our pitching be an issue because of the way our defense is playing?

 

I remember last year, we seemed to be really solid on defense, and I am sure that helped our pitchers a ton. This year, to me, our defense just seems ehhh.

 

Are there any decent stats that we can look at to compare the defense between this year and last year?

 

Baseball Prospectus has a Defensive Efficiency Stat that had the Sox 2nd last year at .720, and 8th this year at .707. Out of the top 10 teams from the 2005 list, only 3 made the playoffs (Sox, STL, HOU), so there is not much correlation between Defensive Efficiency and making the playoffs, but I am sure it can't hurt.

 

Here are a few other misc factors that are contributing to the Sox struggles:

 

- Sox pitchers are striking out a lot less batters this year, 2nd to last only behind KC, which means more balls in play

- The Sox catchers have thrown out the 2nd lowest percentage of base stealers (23%) only behind CLE

- Sox pitchers have given up more HRs this year than in 2005

- Sox pitchers have intentionally walked the 2nd most batters (31), 2nd only behind TOR

 

So these factors add up to more runners on base, more runners advancing, and more runs overall for the opposing team. Add that to a lower Defensive Efficiency and the team is going to allow more runs.

Edited July 21, 2006 by RME JICO

[LVSoxFan]

I'm not disputing that pitching is the A #1 cause of our woes thus far but you people are freakin crazy if you think that smallball, Ozzieball, whatever you want to call it, hasn't been AWOL this year.

 

Did you not watch the first half of 2005?

 

And as far as 2006 goes, like I said: I've seen this movie before. It's called "2004."

 

Yep, the 2004, after which KW and Ozzie and everybody made a BIG point about how we have to play "fundamental" (i.e., smallball) baseball. Sorry, they called it "smartball."

 

I will concede that "smallball" is negated when pitching's not there (pitching and defense, pitching and defense) but to suggest that this had nothing to do with our 2005 success is freakin absurd.

Edited July 21, 2006 by LVSoxFan

[NorthSideSox72]

I will concede that "smallball" is negated when pitching's not there (pitching and defense, pitching and defense) but to suggest that this had nothing to do with our 2005 success is freakin absurd.

 

It is no more or less 'freakin absurd' than you saying it won us a championship last year.

 

It was a PART of the puzzle last year, and certainly not the biggest part. Most people here won't dispute that we are poor at executing bunts and steals and what-not this year, and indeed that has caused us a few problems. But to say that is the key difference between this year and last is just manifestly untrue.

 

Pitching, pitching, pitching...

[LVSoxFan]

Why don't we meet halfway? Obviously pitching is the major element this year, and if you had to go for #2.... smallball.

 

Deal?

[NorthSideSox72]

Why don't we meet halfway? Obviously pitching is the major element this year, and if you had to go for #2.... smallball.

 

Deal?

I think last year, pitching was #1, then timely homeruns, THEN a combination of small ball and great defense. We've kept the homeruns going this year, so that isn't really a problem area.

 

I'd agree that small ball and defense are the number 2 and 3 areas that are biting us in the a** right now, yeah. Behind pitching, starters particularly.

[LVSoxFan]

I think last year, pitching was #1, then timely homeruns, THEN a combination of small ball and great defense. We've kept the homeruns going this year, so that isn't really a problem area.

 

I'd agree that small ball and defense are the number 2 and 3 areas that are biting us in the a** right now, yeah. Behind pitching, starters particularly.

 

Good enough for me! I concur!