Dontrelle Willis almost a White Sox?

[Chisoxfn]

Dontrell's peripheal numbers aren't very good, but I do think he has good stuff. However he's in a major pitchers park and obviously playing in a league that isn't near as good offensively.

[3E8]

Seriously, pitching in the NL East for any team not named the Phillies is a dream. Shea, Dolphin, RFK, and Turner. That's a lot of outfield.

[nitetrain8601]

Hopefully it was Buehrle and Garcia for Dontrelle.

[Felix]

Hopefully it was Buehrle and Garcia for Dontrelle.

If I knew where the puke smiley went, I'd put it here.

Edited July 21, 2006 by Felix

[Frankensteiner]

Nomo is by far the best comparison I've ever seen, that's the one I always love to use. 1 great year, another pretty good year after that about 5 or so ok years and then just utter crap. I really see Dontrelle going down this road.

 

If Willis was really no better than Nomo, do you guys think Kenny would be chasing after him like this? Not to play the "these guys know what they're doing" card, but our scouting department must see that he's not doing this with smoke and mirrors like it's being suggested here.

 

And if we're going by your theory, shouldn't Willis have peaked in his first year instead of his third? It's not like he adopted that delivery last year. Hitters should have been used to seeing him by last season.

 

As far as this year, his numbers are pretty good outside of the horrible month of May. His biggest problem is he's walking too many hitters (BB/9 is the highest of his career). On the other hand, his G/F ratio is the best it's been. Also, saying he pitches in a pitcher's park is irrelavent as his home splits are just terrible compared to his road splits (6.17 ERA vs 2.49).

[Felix]

As far as this year, his numbers are pretty good outside of the horrible month of May.

So are Buehrle's outside of the horrible month of July.

[CySox]

I would love Willis, but it would most likely cast Fields and Sweeney, and I think they might be too much to give up.

[Balta1701]

I would love Willis, but it would most likely cast Fields and Sweeney, and I think they might be too much to give up.

It'll probably cast even more than those 2 to get Willis, which would be why it hasn't gone down yet.

 

By the way, I will say that this does seem like the sort of deal KW would like to do if he could...something that makes a big splash.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

I would love Willis, but it would most likely cast Fields and Sweeney, and I think they might be too much to give up.

 

If that's what it takes to get Willis, this deal should be done yesterday.

[3E8]

It's not. McCarthy would be a must for the Marlins in a Willis deal.

[The Ginger Kid]

Ugh, I'm completely torn when it comes to Willis. I think he'll be pretty damn bad about 3 years from now but he probably would dominate the AL for the rest of this season, throwing elbows and knees at people. I would NEVER, NEVER trade McCarthy for Willis, that would be a huge mistake and I just can't see a deal getting done without including McCarthy.

 

If it were Fields + spects I'd jump all over that and then dump Freddy on someone for a piece as well.

Vazquez would nearly double their payroll, they have NO use for him.

aren't the yankees still picking up some of Javy's salary?

[South Side Fireworks Man]

It's not. McCarthy would be a must for the Marlins in a Willis deal.

 

No deal then.

[SABR Sox]

As much as I don't like to say it White Sox fans to have a tendancy to overrate Brandon McCarthy.

 

He is a young promising arm that did post very impressive minor league numbers. He is young and there is upside.

 

But in the eyes of other teams, he's not what so many of us see. They see a young 22-year old that could be good, but has posted lackluster strikeout rates in his major league career, and could use a bit more work on the control. not that his control is terrible, but not great.

 

He's certianly no Liriano, and certianly not good enough for me to decline on Dontrelle Willis.

 

Willis is getting hit harder this year, and is issuing more walks than his '05 campaign, but he's better than McCarthy at this point, and in my opinion, better suited in the longrun.

 

Now if the Fish are interested in McCarthy + Tracey + Fields, etc. Then the issue gets a little iffy for me. But Brandon McCarthy hasn't done enough for me to label him as an untouchable at this point.

[ZoomSlowik]

If Willis was really no better than Nomo, do you guys think Kenny would be chasing after him like this? Not to play the "these guys know what they're doing" card, but our scouting department must see that he's not doing this with smoke and mirrors like it's being suggested here.

 

And if we're going by your theory, shouldn't Willis have peaked in his first year instead of his third? It's not like he adopted that delivery last year. Hitters should have been used to seeing him by last season.

 

As far as this year, his numbers are pretty good outside of the horrible month of May. His biggest problem is he's walking too many hitters (BB/9 is the highest of his career). On the other hand, his G/F ratio is the best it's been. Also, saying he pitches in a pitcher's park is irrelavent as his home splits are just terrible compared to his road splits (6.17 ERA vs 2.49).

 

Nomo still had more than one good year. He may have been at his best in his first year, but he was also solid in his second year as well. He also had two other good years much later. The only problem is that he had 5 mediocre to poor years sandwiched in between. He also struck out a lot more guys than Willis.

 

So far Willis has about half a good year as a rookie, a poor season in his second, a great year in his third year, and has been mediocre so far this year. That's far from enough evidence to conclude that he's an ace for the next 10 years.

Edited July 23, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[3E8]

but has posted lackluster strikeout rates in his major league career

Are you saying they are lackluster compared to his minor league K rates? Because McCarthy's career K/IP is just 7% lower than Willis', and about 100 of Dontrelle's career 540 strikeouts are against pitchers. McCarthy also has a better BB/IP rate than Willis. This is all without the luxury of being granted a permanent position in the starting rotation to improve himself.

[Frankensteiner]

Nomo still had more than one good year. He may have been at his best in his first year, but he was also solid in his second year as well. He also had two other good years much later. The only problem is that he had 5 mediocre to poor years sandwiched in between. He also struck out a lot more guys than Willis.

 

So far Willis has about half a good year as a rookie, a poor season in his second, a great year in his third year, and has been mediocre so far this year. That's far from enough evidence to conclude that he's an ace for the next 10 years.

 

Nomo was a different case than Willis. His numbers got progressively worse with each successive year. That would support the theory of batters getting familiar with his delivery. I'm not sure how to explain away the 2 good season he had upon his return to the NL west.

 

Again though, Willis having his best season in year 3 would seem to dispute the notion that he's a gimmick pitcher, which is the only reason given as to why he's not as good as his numbers. Or is there some other reasoning I'm not familiar with?

[SABR Sox]

Are you saying they are lackluster compared to his minor league K rates? Because McCarthy's career K/IP is just 7% lower than Willis', and about 100 of Dontrelle's career 540 strikeouts are against pitchers. McCarthy also has a better BB/IP rate than Willis. This is all without the luxury of being granted a permanent position in the starting rotation to improve himself.

 

I should have made myself a bit more clear with the word "lackluster". I was merely comparing his minor league K totals to his major league K totals. Not that they should be the same, but there is quite a gap between the K/9 of the two (over a 40% decrease).

 

Your argument that McCarthy has better BB/9 than Willis over their career's is also true, but with McCarthy's sample size so small I basically avoided it all together, there's really no point to using it, unless he puts up the same numbers with 200+ IP's there is really no point to comparing McCarthy, a RP, to Willis a SP.

 

But if you want to get into sample sizes, McCarthy's BB/9 this season is 3.05, just OK really.

 

Willis in 06: 2.89, a bit bitter.

Willis in 05: 2.09, a lot better.

[3E8]

I should have made myself a bit more clear with the word "lackluster". I was merely comparing his minor league K totals to his major league K totals. Not that they should be the same, but there is quite a gap between the K/9 of the two (over a 40% decrease).

 

Your argument that McCarthy has better BB/9 than Willis over their career's is also true, but with McCarthy's sample size so small I basically avoided it all together, there's really no point to using it, unless he puts up the same numbers with 200+ IP's there is really no point to comparing McCarthy, a RP, to Willis a SP.

 

But if you want to get into sample sizes, McCarthy's BB/9 this season is 3.05, just OK really.

 

Willis in 06: 2.89, a bit bitter.

Willis in 05: 2.09, a lot better.

Yeah I figured you meant they were lackluster in comparison to his minor league stats, because McCarthy's K/9 has been league average thus far. I expected a drop in strikeouts after his promotions, but I agree with you that it could be better. His effectiveness is totally dependent on his change. In games where the change is on you get a noticable increase in his ability to miss opposing bats. Brandon's control as a reliever has been worse as you pointed out. A BB/9 of 3 is better than league average and not bad for an AL reliever. But like you said we are dealing with 50 innings here.

[ZoomSlowik]

Nomo was a different case than Willis. His numbers got progressively worse with each successive year. That would support the theory of batters getting familiar with his delivery. I'm not sure how to explain away the 2 good season he had upon his return to the NL west.

 

Again though, Willis having his best season in year 3 would seem to dispute the notion that he's a gimmick pitcher, which is the only reason given as to why he's not as good as his numbers. Or is there some other reasoning I'm not familiar with?

 

I don't see how the fact that Willis was at his best in his third year changes things. He actually pitched better, that would be the major factor. That's the same as Nomo coming back and doing well for a couple of years. Just being familiar with his delivery doesn't necessarily translate to success. He does throw pretty hard, so he will be tough at times. That's far from being able to put up a lot of great seasons though. He might not get Nomo-bad, but I don't see him being worth what he'll fetch.

 

It's not about him being "as good as his numbers" because a lot of his numbers aren't that good. His walk and strikeout totals have never been very impressive. Plus a 3.94 ERA in the NL in a pitcher's park with a 1.42 WHIP doesn't exactly have me excited.

[Balta1701]

aren't the yankees still picking up some of Javy's salary?

No. The Diamondbacks got to keep all of the money the Yankees sent them. We got something like $3 million from the D-Backs in that deal, but that's it.

[Frankensteiner]

I'm going to bump this and eat some crow here. Willis just got destroyed by Philly tonight: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 HR.

 

He's been pretty bad his last 3 starts. I thought he was over his early season struggles but guess not. Willis looks like Vazquez circa 2005.

[Kalapse]

It mainly has to do with the fact that he's not very good but I'm sure there's other contributing factors.

[Jake]

No. The Diamondbacks got to keep all of the money the Yankees sent them. We got something like $3 million from the D-Backs in that deal, but that's it.

 

Per MLB4U:

 

Javier Carlos Vazquez: signed 4-Year EXTENSION worth 45M- + received a 2M signing bonus- will make 8.5M in 2004, 10.5M in 2005, 11.5M in 2006, and 12.5M in 2007- + 3M each year of his 2005, 2006 and 2007 salaries is contributed by the Yankees- + invoked his right by parameters set by the CBA to demand a trade on 11/11/05 because he was traded in the middle of a multi-year contract (if he is not traded by March 15th, 2006 then he may forfeit remaining salaries and declare free agency)- + as a result of demanding a trade and then receiving the trade, he can not become a free agent until three seasons after the trade, meaning he will eligible for arbitration following the 2007 season and eligible for free agency after the 2008 season- + 1M of 2006 salary paid by ARI and 3M of 2007 salary paid by ARI