Buehrle

[aboz56]

Horrid location and hanging changeups.

 

Yep, that's pretty much been it.

[Jake]

I think there are some things to be worried about:

 

1. His strikeout rate this season is an extremely low 4.03 K/9. That is considerably lower than any other season of his major league career. The last two seasons it was 6.05 and 5.67 respectively.

 

2. He has become extremely hittable. Opposing batters are hitting .306 against him. That is much, much worse than any other season in his career. The last two seasons it was .271 and .262 respecitvely. His OPS against is .828. His previous high was .738.

 

If you're giving up a lot of hits and can't strike guys out, you're going to fail big time. This isn't just a slump, it is a horrible season. Maybe it is the huge number of innings and pitches he's thrown over the past 6 years, but he has definitely become a different pitcher this year.

 

The numbers just confirm what we already know, he's getting hammered. What isn't apparent is exactly what the problem is, or if there are just a series of problems. Obviously location has been a problem, and poor breaking pitches.

[SoxHawk1980]

He's basically just had one awful month. His ERA for the first three was 2.57, 3.18, and 3.89. It's amazing how a few brutal starts can kill your numbers. Given his track record and his performance earlier in the year, I gotta think he's going to come out of it at some point.

His peripherals were bad all year though. Finally, it caught up with him and he's been giving up a lot of runs recently. Basically, it was poor pitching, pretty much all year; he just didn't get lucky in the last month. This is a bad season and he's been pitching poorly in every way: K's, hits, walks, runs...everything.

[Guest JimH]

I love Buehrle and I have to say the most rattling thing about this whole slump has been seeing him getting lit up like that.

 

It's like watching your dad get beat up in a bar brawl.

 

Wow ... you nailed it, excellent analogy.

 

You have a bit of writer in you, a bit of poet actually. I am totally serious. Great analogy.

 

PS - No I have never seen my dad get his ass kicked. However one time I did have to come to his defense, it worked out nicely.

[WCSox]

It looks to me like he's going through a dead-arm period. He's leaving pitches up and his breaking ball is flatter than usual. His velocity was more or less normal when he was getting shelled a month ago, so I don't think that it's an injury issue.

[champ]

My co-worker thinks Mark is injured and asked about his velocity.

 

When I saw him last Friday, he was hitting 88 with regularity on the gun, and I've never seen him top that when I've been at games (I know once in a while he'll get into the 90s), so I told him: it's not velocity.

 

You could make the argument with Freddy, but Mark? Naw, it's something else. But I have never seen a pitcher collapse so quickly after years of realiability.

Unless, as my co-workers says, those years of tons of innings are now coming crashing down on him.

 

Give me a break...collapse? He's in a funk, and it's not the first time he's been in one in his career. You just have to wait it out and hope he finds his groove sooner rather than later.

[Punch and Judy Garland]

The guy started 2-10 one year. He has a track record and I'm confident that he'll find himself here in August. I realize the sky is falling around here but I really do think that he will end up with his era in the high 3's, get his wins, and have a normal season when its all said and done

[greg775]

The Sox starters simply are throwing slower this year.

Freddy Garcia has become a junkballer. Buehrle looks spent.

After that World Series, Garcia came back a month early this year for the World Baseball Classic. Javier Vazquez, new to the rotation, threw in the WBC, too.

Still, Jose Contreras and Garland are getting outs, and Garcia is managing. Move Brandon McCarthy into the rotation in place of Vazquez, and that would make for one fresh arm, and a playoff-level rotation.

 

Good story by Couch today I thought in the Sun Times.

If our pitchers continue "throwing slower" including Mark, we're doomed.

We're gonna get massacred in August if those pitches don't have something on 'em.

[whitesoxin']

The bottom line is that Mark Buehrle is just not that good.

[Jordan4life_2007]

The bottom line is that Mark Buehrle is just not that good right now.

 

Fixed.

[whitesoxin']

Fixed.

To each his own. I'm sure hoping he can turn it around, but I don't think he'll ever be dominant for a long period of time anymore.

[greg775]

To each his own. I'm sure hoping he can turn it around, but I don't think he'll ever be dominant for a long period of time anymore.

If that is the case ... wow.

The first crap stretch of his career and you got him finished.

Tough crowd.

[quickman]

Personally i think he knew something was wrong, tired or whatever when he pulled out of the World Baseball event. he pitched alot last year including the playoffs and even got up in the bullpen during the playoffs. I also think the sox know it but can't do much about it. Eitherway the team is done.

[Guest JimH]

Personally i think he knew something was wrong, tired or whatever when he pulled out of the World Baseball event. he pitched alot last year including the playoffs and even got up in the bullpen during the playoffs. I also think the sox know it but can't do much about it. Eitherway the team is done.

 

Tired, absolutely. Hurting, very possibly. And I agree on the WBC aspect.

 

There are two things they can do about it ... DL him for 15 days and either acquire a bullpen arm or move McCarthy in for a 60 pitch start or two. Or, limit his pitch count to 80 for the next 3-4 starts and see if he bounces back. That's it, that's all they can do. There is also nothing wrong with really shortleashing him for the next two starts, i.e. the next time he falls behind 3-0, yank him and let him rest. Problem is, you better have back up arms ready to fill the void, especially if it's game one of a series.

[nitetrain8601]

Maybe we're seeing why Buehrle dropped so low in his draft.

[whitesoxfan99]

Maybe we're seeing why Buehrle dropped so low in his draft.

 

What a stupid post

[champ]

To each his own. I'm sure hoping he can turn it around, but I don't think he'll ever be dominant for a long period of time anymore.

 

And your reasoning behind this is what? Because if, by off chance, he never did not pitch well again, you can say that you told us so? That's the only reasoning I can think of, and I can't believe you seriously believe that. This is a guy that's a proven winner, and all of a sudden he sucks. GMAB...

Edited July 28, 2006 by champ

[Jordan4life_2007]

What a stupid post

 

I concur.

[Butter Parque]

Location is his whole problem, he's never had and never will have any velocity. It's tough having an ace who doesn't hit 90

[ZoomSlowik]

His peripherals were bad all year though. Finally, it caught up with him and he's been giving up a lot of runs recently. Basically, it was poor pitching, pretty much all year; he just didn't get lucky in the last month. This is a bad season and he's been pitching poorly in every way: K's, hits, walks, runs...everything.

 

His ERA was 3.22 before the Cubs' start. That's the only thing that really matters in the long run. His peripherals have never looked that great, he's not a stuff-reliant pitcher. His career BAA is .266 and his k/9 is 5.23. Those aren't terrible, but they're not great either. He hasn't been "getting lucky" in the past. Luck doesn't last for 5 and a half years.

[SoxHawk1980]

His ERA was 3.22 before the Cubs' start. That's the only thing that really matters in the long run. His peripherals have never looked that great. He's not a stuff-reliant pitcher. His career BAA is .266 and his k/9 is 5.23. Those aren't terrible, but they're not great either.

 

His peripherals have always been at least decent. Decent K/9, good K/BB, good WHIP. This season, all of those peripherals turned to crap. All of the indictators are down this season. That doesn't look like a slump. That looks like a serious long-term problem, not just a little slump. Sox fans had better hope that this is just arm fatigue or an injury.

 

He hasn't been "getting lucky" in the past. Luck doesn't last for 5 and a half years.

No, he hasn't been getting lucky in the past. He's been getting enough strike outs, and keeping guys from hitting him too hard. He's had enough velocity, excellent control, and perfectly executed change of speeds.

 

If you look at all of his relevant stats this year, you'll see that they are wildly different from each of his prior major league seasons. This is a major season-long downturn. Not just a little slump.

[ZoomSlowik]

His peripherals have always been at least decent. Decent K/9, good K/BB, good WHIP. This season, all of those peripherals turned to crap. All of the indictators are down this season. That doesn't look like a slump. That looks like a serious long-term problem, not just a little slump. Sox fans had better hope that this is just arm fatigue or an injury.

No, he hasn't been getting lucky in the past. He's been getting enough strike outs, and keeping guys from hitting him too hard. He's had enough velocity, excellent control, and perfectly executed change of speeds.

 

If you look at all of his relevant stats this year, you'll see that they are wildly different from each of his prior major league seasons. This is a major season-long downturn. Not just a little slump.

 

How is it a season-long meltdown? I posted the numbers. He had two great months and one decent one before this. Look at his splits, he's really only sucked for 5 starts.

 

The peripherals argument is bogus. There's virtually no difference between 4 k/9 and 6 k/9 (and even less between 5 and his career 5.23 rate), either way you're still relying on your defense. He had virtually the same numbers in 2003 as well and was still decent.

 

Mark's pre-July numbers:

Record- 9-4

ERA- 3.22

WHIP- 1.25

BAA- .268 (not entirely sure on my math with this one)

K/9- 3.78

K/BB- 1.68

BB/9- 2.25

 

Mark's July numbers:

Record- 0-5

ERA- 11.48

WHIP- 1.95

BAA- .348

K/9- 5.06

K/BB- 3.00

BB/9- 1.68

 

Tell me again how that is a season-long slump, and how his peripherals matter so much. The only ones that really matter are his ERA and his WHIP, which are obviously much higher of late.

Edited July 28, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[RME JICO]

BP has some insight on Buehrle's woes:

 

There are plenty of statistical signs pointing to Buehrle’s downfall this year, but some are contradictory. The difference between his performance before and after July 1 is striking:

 

 

OBP SLG G/F

Before July 1 .310 .403 1.24

After July 1 .411 .692 0.90

 

Buehrle has faced a difficult July slate of opponents, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, and the streaking Twins, but that can’t tell the whole story. His month started with a five-inning, 11-run, 13-hit calamity at Wrigley. The decrease in ground ball/fly ball ratio could be a cause, or it could be the effect of some other change in his approach.

 

The control that has been his signature doesn’t appear to have slipped: his 2006 walk rate is 2.2 per nine innings, a tick up from his career rate of 2.1 per nine. His strikeout rate is down considerably on the year--4.0 per nine compared to 5.7 last year—but it’s been down since April. Before July 1, he struck out 10% of the batters he faced and still put together a strong first half. Since then, he’s punching out only 11%.

 

Among ChiSox fans, it would be a relief if Buehrle turned out to be injured. However, these five losses might just end up looking like a stretch of bad luck. The combination of a lower G/F ratio (from 2003-05, it hovered between 1.4 and 1.5) and the decreased strikeout rate strongly suggest a drop in effectiveness, so it’s something of a surprise that the disaster didn’t strike sooner.

 

BABIP, otherwise known as a pitching evaluator’s best friend, suggests an explanation. In his last three seasons, Buehrle allowed hits on almost exactly 30% of balls in play. For the first three months of the season, with a lower G/F ratio that would suggest that rate would go up, he managed a BABIP of .271. With Brian Anderson in the outfield, the combination of a high fly ball rate and a low BABIP seems possible, but it’s still unlikely.

 

In his last five starts, the tables turned. In July, Buehrle has allowed hits on over 40% of balls in play, almost impossible to achieve with the strong Pale Hose defense behind him. It would probably help if he managed to keep a few more balls on the ground, but it appears that a fair amount of his rough month can be attributed to bad luck. Buehrle doesn’t look like he’ll magically transform into the pitcher he was last year, but it’s very possible that--even without surgery--he’ll regain his above-average innings-eating form before the season is out.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....b9e854d19bc00b4

[LVSoxFan]

Give me a break...collapse? He's in a funk, and it's not the first time he's been in one in his career. You just have to wait it out and hope he finds his groove sooner rather than later.

 

Dude, five awful starts in a row is not a "funk."

 

Maybe two. But five? Wake up. Especially when he's been our workhorse.

[ZoomSlowik]

I don't see strikeout/walk rates or groundball/flyball rates being the issue. He's simply getting hit a lot more frequently and harder. He's leaving a lot of pitches up and out over the plate and they're getting hit hard. You don't need to analyze stats to figure that out.