Buehrle

[RME JICO]

I don't see strikeout/walk rates or groundball/flyball rates being the issue. He's simply getting hit a lot more frequently and harder. He's leaving a lot of pitches up and out over the plate and they're getting hit hard. You don't need to analyze stats to figure that out.

The GB/FB argument has some weight though. First if he is allowing a hit in 40% of the balls in play for July, that is way too high, then you add that to an increased FB rate, and you are going to let up a ton of hits and a ton of runs. Also, if he is striking out less, then there are more balls in play. The strikeout difference is not huge but 2 less strikeouts means 2 more balls in play.

 

It all adds up.

 

First, he is not pitching as effective as his usual self. Then he strikes out less, gives up more balls hit into play, which equates to more hits and runs.

 

Now even if he was not pitching well, his BABIP should not be around .400 like BP suggests. That will come down and when it does, his hits allowed and runs allowed will go down as well.

[ZoomSlowik]

The GB/FB argument has some weight though. First if he is allowing a hit in 40% of the balls in play for July, that is way too high, then you add that to an increased FB rate, and you are going to let up a ton of hits and a ton of runs. Also, if he is striking out less, then there are more balls in play. The strikeout difference is not huge but 2 less strikeouts means 2 more balls in play.

 

It all adds up.

 

First, he is not pitching as effective as his usual self. Then he strikes out less, gives up more balls hit into play, which equates to more hits and runs.

 

Now even if he was not pitching well, his BABIP should not be around .400 like BP suggests. That will come down and when it does, his hits allowed and runs allowed will go down as well.

 

The problem with that is that his strikeouts are up in July and pretty low when he was good. That wouldn't really make sense.

 

Besides, if you do the math, a 2 strikeout difference doesn't change things that much. That's two more balls in play for every 9 innings, which means a little less than 1.5 more for every start, and around 10 more in a month. Even if you get really unlucky, only 4 of those are going to turn into hits. That's less than a hit a start, which shouldn't translate to that big a difference unless all of them come at the exact right time. We're not even really talking about that big a difference, his career total is 5.23 and his career high is barely over 6. If he were a stuff-pitcher I'd be worried about a 4 K/9 rate, but not for a finnesse pitcher that normally has good control like Mark.

 

As for the groundball rate, I'd say that's more of a by-product of his problem than the actual problem. An increased number of flyballs won't cause problems in and of itself, but if they're all hard hit balls it will. THAT is his problem. His poor pitch placement is causing a couple of pitches that normally would be weak grounders or flyballs somewhere into screaming liners in the gap.

 

I won't argue with the increased number of hits or the increased BABIP. That's clearly the issue. You can't be successful with a BAA against that high. However, striking people out more often isn't the issue. He's got to get his control back, which turns those line drives back into weak grounders and flyouts.

Edited July 28, 2006 by ZoomSlowik