Fastballs and our starters

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Yesterday on the Score there was an interview with John Dewann from Baseball Infosolutions, whom you may have heard of. They track just about everything there is to track, and he was talking about our 5 starters plus BMac, and their fastballs. Specifically, how many of each guy's fastballs hit 90 mph. From lowest to highest percentage, they were Buerhle, Garcia, Garland, Vazquez, McCarthy and Contreras. That's probably what most of us would have thought. He added, however, that Garcia's percentage from last year to this year went from 89% (meaning 89% of his fastballs were over 90 mph last year) to 48% this year.

 

Then he added this: last year Buerhle's fast ball, when it was on, was at 85 mph. This year he reaches 85 only 44% of the time.

 

The numbers support what our eyes are telling us.

[S720]

Yesterday on the Score there was an interview with John Dewann from Baseball Infosolutions, whom you may have heard of. They track just about everything there is to track, and he was talking about our 5 starters plus BMac, and their fastballs. Specifically, how many of each guy's fastballs hit 90 mph. From lowest to highest percentage, they were Buerhle, Garcia, Garland, Vazquez, McCarthy and Contreras. That's probably what most of us would have thought. He added, however, that Garcia's percentage from last year to this year went from 89% (meaning 89% of his fastballs were over 90 mph last year) to 48% this year.

 

Then he added this: last year Buerhle's fast ball, when it was on, was at 85 mph. This year he reaches 85 only 44% of the time.

 

The numbers support what our eyes are telling us.

 

I guess the extended time to win the World Series last year has caught up with our starting pitchers.

[DBAHO]

The amount of innings our starters have thrown over the past few seasons, were probably bound to catch up to them at some point;

 

MB

01- 221.1 IP

02 - 239 IP

03 - 230.1 IP

04 - 245.1 IP

05 - 236.2 IP

06 - 138.1 IP (so far)

 

That's over 1300 innings in 5 and a half seasons for Mark.

 

Freddy

01 - 238.2 IP

02 - 223.2 IP

03 - 201.1 IP

04 - 210 IP

05 - 228 IP

06 - 133.2 IP (so far)

 

Total of over 1200 innings for Freddy there in those 5 and a half seasons.

[whitesoxfan101]

The amount of innings our starters have thrown over the past few seasons, were probably bound to catch up to them at some point;

 

MB

01- 221.1 IP

02 - 239 IP

03 - 230.1 IP

04 - 245.1 IP

05 - 236.2 IP

06 - 138.1 IP (so far)

 

That's over 1300 innings in 5 and a half seasons for Mark.

 

Freddy

01 - 238.2 IP

02 - 223.2 IP

03 - 201.1 IP

04 - 210 IP

05 - 228 IP

06 - 133.2 IP (so far)

 

Total of over 1200 innings for Freddy there in those 5 and a half seasons.

 

Yeah, plus Jon and Javy have also thrown a ton of innings, and God only knowns how many innings Jose threw in Cuba.

[Milkman delivers]

That's pathetic for Buehrle and Garcia. That dropoff is insane.

 

Can we find out how many mph the Astros' rotation has lost?

[whitesoxfan101]

That's pathetic for Buehrle and Garcia. That dropoff is insane.

 

Can we find out how many mph the Astros' rotation has lost?

 

Backe has been hurt most of the year, Pettitte has been awful, Oswalt has been good (comparable to Contreras), and of course then you have the Diva Clemens.

[Milkman delivers]

Backe has been hurt most of the year, Pettitte has been awful, Oswalt has been good (comparable to Contreras), and of course then you have the Diva Clemens.

 

Ehh, Roy Oswalt > Jose Contreras.

[Balta1701]

The amount of innings our starters have thrown over the past few seasons, were probably bound to catch up to them at some point;

 

MB

01- 221.1 IP

02 - 239 IP

03 - 230.1 IP

04 - 245.1 IP

05 - 236.2 IP

06 - 138.1 IP (so far)

 

That's over 1300 innings in 5 and a half seasons for Mark.

 

Freddy

01 - 238.2 IP

02 - 223.2 IP

03 - 201.1 IP

04 - 210 IP

05 - 228 IP

06 - 133.2 IP (so far)

 

Total of over 1200 innings for Freddy there in those 5 and a half seasons.

But don't those numbers and the fact that we haven't seen a dropoff before on either of those pitchers argue that they've been able to handle a lot of innings in the past without problems so there's no gigantic reason to expect that the innings will all of a sudden kill them?

[LVSoxFan]

That dropoff for Freddy is INSANE. Wow. That explains a lot.

 

Buehrle? Whatever, he was never that fast to begin with. But Freddy? Wow.

 

Do we really think it's that extra month that did them in? Or is it something else (my co-worker swears he thinks Freddy's hurt)?

[Milkman delivers]

I don't mean to minimize the extra workload, but the two of them did only pitch 3 extra games. Is that really enough to cause these problems?

 

I agree with LV, I think one or both of them is hurt.

[whitesoxfan101]

Ehh, Roy Oswalt > Jose Contreras.

 

In general?? Of course, but this year they have pretty similar numbers, except Jose has a much better record and an ERA that is 0.3 higher (but at the same time, he's in the AL, so keep that in mind).

[SoxFan76]

I don't mean to minimize the extra workload, but the two of them did only pitch 3 extra games. Is that really enough to cause these problems?

 

I agree with LV, I think one or both of them is hurt.

 

In my opinion....yeah I think it is enough. Besides just the 3 starts, it's the mental work load and it's the entire month of October where instead of doing some training/recooperation, they were still on the road playing ball. I don't think it has anything to do with IP, but just for the fact that their routine was thrown off by that "pesky" World Series.

 

So when people say the starters will come back to their career norms...I'm not always so sure about that. Sure, Buehrle's going to get a lot better (he can't get much worse), but as for Freddy and Vazquez, I think what you see is what you get. Freddy because of the playoffs and WBC, and Vazquez just because he's overrated and has never been that great in the past few years.

[Gregory Pratt]

I still think Freddy Garcia is simply off steroids.

[Milkman delivers]

I still think Freddy Garcia is simply off steroids.

 

That may be. Let's remember, he started losing velocity last year, not just this year. And in a strange coincidence, last year was the year they installed a drug testing policy.

 

Damn, now I'm even more discouraged.

Edited August 1, 2006 by Milkman delivers

[Gregory Pratt]

That may be. Let's remember, he started losing velocity last year, not just this year. And in a strange coincidence, last year was the year they installed a drug testing policy.

 

Damn, now I'm even more discouraged.

 

The thing that makes me doubt that, though, is that he has hit the mid-90s in a few games this year. He can still do it sometimes, and that makes me wonder about his 'roid use. In my mind, the alternative is that he's just been getting fatter (that we can see with our own eyes) and has lost a lot of focus, and probably is hitting up too much marijuana.

 

Hell, it could be both.

[YASNY]

The thing that makes me doubt that, though, is that he has hit the mid-90s in a few games this year. He can still do it sometimes, and that makes me wonder about his 'roid use. In my mind, the alternative is that he's just been getting fatter (that we can see with our own eyes) and has lost a lot of focus, and probably is hitting up too much marijuana.

 

Hell, it could be both.

 

 

Freddie's just trying to save himself for the stretch run.

[LVSoxFan]

Don't they get tested for pot in MLB?

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

That dropoff for Freddy is INSANE. Wow. That explains a lot.

 

Buehrle? Whatever, he was never that fast to begin with.

 

 

The dropoff for Buehrle is just as significant for him, in that (as Hawk would say) to the batter's eye there isn't a big difference between Mark's fastball and his changeup. Batters are pounding him because they aren't being fooled. Maybe Mark has to adjust to his slower fastball by making his changeup slower yet. Game of adjustments.

 

I sure wouldn't give up on him, and I'm glad they didn't trade him this week. Eventually - maybe next year - he'll figure it out.

[LVSoxFan]

I see what you mean about Mark. It's just that losing like 10 MPH off the fastball (Freddy's) seems so EXTREME, doesn't it?

[fathom]

The dropoff for Buehrle is just as significant for him, in that (as Hawk would say) to the batter's eye there isn't a big difference between Mark's fastball and his changeup. Batters are pounding him because they aren't being fooled. Maybe Mark has to adjust to his slower fastball by making his changeup slower yet. Game of adjustments.

 

I sure wouldn't give up on him, and I'm glad they didn't trade him this week. Eventually - maybe next year - he'll figure it out.

 

I haven't noticed much of a drop-off at all with Buehrle's speed this year. Actually, he was throwing harder in his last game than he normally does. Buehrle is a control pitcher, and his main issue is everything is up in the zone. Garcia is much different, as he used to use his fastball to set up his offspeed stuff. Even when he threw 94 mph, he rarely threw his fastball by people. However, the difference between the 88 mph fastball and 94 mph fastball, followed by an offspeed pitch, is huge. It's not just Garcia's fastball that isn't as crisp. His slider has nowhere near the tilt that it did when he first joined the Sox. If you go back and watch his first start with the team, he had terrific stuff. And as someone mentioned before, his velocity started to decline pretty drastically last year. He was in the 90-91 mph range all season.

[zygoat]

those numbers mean everything. MArk is awesoem when it comes to offspeed stuff and breaking pitches (slow stuff), but when he cant get the hitter to rush his swing by throwing a fastball, everything is the same speed. Freddy is a power pitcher and needs that fastball to be effective.

[Gregory Pratt]

Don't they get tested for pot in MLB?

 

I don't believe so. Freddy failed the international pot test for the WBC, heh.

[sweatpants]

The thing that makes me doubt that, though, is that he has hit the mid-90s in a few games this year. He can still do it sometimes, and that makes me wonder about his 'roid use. In my mind, the alternative is that he's just been getting fatter (that we can see with our own eyes) and has lost a lot of focus, and probably is hitting up too much marijuana.

 

Hell, it could be both.

 

I don't know about steroids, but it might have more to do with amphetamine use. Former players said numerous times that the new drug tests is going to effect more players in terms of amphetamine use than with the roids us. They also singled out pitchers as the main culprits as the drug amazingly increases your abilty to focus(remember amphetamines are the main active ingredient in the "study drugs" Adderall and Dexedrine) and also gives you loads of constant energy. I remember Buster Olney or someone stating that teams were buying Red Bull by the cases in trying to counteract the drug policy. I wouldn't be suprised if quite a few Sox pitchers were effected by this.

[LVSoxFan]

That stat on Freddy is just mind-blowing, though.

[kevo880]

I don't believe so. Freddy failed the international pot test for the WBC, heh.

 

Why are you so obsessed about Freddy smoking pot? no one else on this board ever talks about it but you. just because he got caught in the offseason doesnt mean hes a pothead and does it all the time. im sure you drink sometimes does that make you and alcoholic?

i really dont think thats the reason freddy has lost velocity and isnt the same pitcher. The steroids or amphetimines makes a lot more sense to me.

Edited August 1, 2006 by kevo880