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Play Ozzie for a week


VAfan

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If you were Ozzie right now, what 3 things would you do to try to spark the team on an August-September run? This is what I would do.

 

1. Change the lineup. The top 3 hitters -- Pods/Iguchi/Thome -- are all much worse to just worse against left handed pitchers. Thus, not only do we have a poor record against lefty starters, but late in games it is easy for opposing managers to use a LOOGY against 3 guys instead of 1 or 2. I would break this up by hitting Jermaine Dye 3rd and slide Thome to 5th. Dye may walk less, but he also strikes out less. So he's a better bet to get a guy home from 3B with less than 2 outs. Plus, we played our best baseball last year with Dye hitting 3rd, where he forces himself to be a more patient hitter. (I'm also concerned that Thome's wrist and back may reduce his production over the next two months, making Dye clearly better.) With Thome 5th, I also move Crede permanently into the 6 hole, since he's a much better hitter than AJ Pierzynski. AJ would hit 7th, followed by Uribe and Anderson.

 

2. Use McCarthy in true long relief. This one slays me. Ozzie has almost never used McCarthy in a role in which he might excell, and help us win games at the same time. To my mind, every game started by Vazquez and Garcia should be taken over by McCarthy in the 6th inning for a 2-3 inning stint. McCarthy could help both of these guys win ballgames we are losing in the mid-late innings. If Buehrle needs help, I'd use McCarthy there too. This guy has pitched only 56 innings so far this year. His arm will be fine if we give him another 60-70 innings in the next two months.

 

3. Play to win every day. Ozzie needs to play to try to win that day's game every day. The time is past where we can afford to lose a game while trying to build someone's confidence. We need to put building the team's confidence first by winning ballgames one day at a time.

 

GO SOX!! Let's start it off by beating Roy Halladay!!!

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QUOTE(VAfan @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 01:49 PM)
If you were Ozzie right now, what 3 things would you do to try to spark the team on an August-September run? This is what I would do.

 

1. Change the lineup. The top 3 hitters -- Pods/Iguchi/Thome -- are all much worse to just worse against left handed pitchers. Thus, not only do we have a poor record against lefty starters, but late in games it is easy for opposing managers to use a LOOGY against 3 guys instead of 1 or 2. I would break this up by hitting Jermaine Dye 3rd and slide Thome to 5th. Dye may walk less, but he also strikes out less. So he's a better bet to get a guy home from 3B with less than 2 outs. Plus, we played our best baseball last year with Dye hitting 3rd, where he forces himself to be a more patient hitter. (I'm also concerned that Thome's wrist and back may reduce his production over the next two months, making Dye clearly better.) With Thome 5th, I also move Crede permanently into the 6 hole, since he's a much better hitter than AJ Pierzynski. AJ would hit 7th, followed by Uribe and Anderson.

 

[

 

GO SOX!! Let's start it off by beating Roy Halladay!!!

I will expand on this.

 

Dye is probably the best hitter in the AL right now. I would also bat him 3rd because I believe he is our best hitter at making contact as well as hitting gaps. I would bat Thome 4th and Kong 5th.

 

I would also never only play BA against LHP. He has always been better against RHP, so I would play him pretty much every day. I would only play Mack if an OF needed rest.

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QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 02:05 PM)
Pitching.

 

And let's not act like this wouldn't be a good move.

 

If Mack isn't subbing for Anderson then I'm cool with it. Just play Anderson 90% of the time. that's my two cents on managing the team. I'll leave the rest up to you guys.

Edited by Controlled Chaos
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QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 02:08 PM)
Oh, I didn't realize we were talking about past performance as opposed to how he's been playing consistently throughout this season.

Well, to play him everyday, odds are he would revert back to his career numbers.

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I also move Crede permanently into the 6 hole, since he's a much better hitter than AJ Pierzynski.

 

Crede is hitting .299 this year and is a lifetime .263 hitter.

 

Pierzynski is hitting .320 this year and is a lifetime .291 hitter.

 

And in this case, stats aren't lying.

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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 02:09 PM)
Well, to play him everyday, odds are he would revert back to his career numbers.

 

He's been playing almost everyday. ESPN says he's played in 78 games, and we're slightly over 100, no? That's a buttload of games. I don't see how he'd magically revert to his career numbers so suddenly.

Edited by Milkman delivers
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QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 12:20 PM)
He's been playing almost everyday. ESPN says he's playing in 78 games, and we're slightly over 100, no? That's a buttload of games. I don't see how he'd magically revert to his career numbers so suddenly.

You know why he might? The reason why is in his splits this year.

AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG OPS

vs. Left 39 3 8 0 0 0 4 2 2 9 .205 .279 .205 .484

vs. Right 146 20 50 8 1 3 11 19 1 27 .342 .419 .473 .892

 

His numbers look damn good, because his numbers against lefties are terrible, his numbers against righties are freaking great, and he's faced righties almost 4x as many ABs as lefties. Even those numbers out some, and his numbers rapidly go down to his career numbers. Pods only hits. 239 against lefties, and he's still significantly better, even in the OBP. Mack would be ideal in a platoon corner outfield spot if we were to design something like that (actually, with Fields next year, that's not a terrible idea)

Edited by Balta1701
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QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 02:20 PM)
He's been playing almost everyday. ESPN says he's played in 78 games, and we're slightly over 100, no? That's a buttload of games. I don't see how he'd magically revert to his career numbers so suddenly.

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

So I'm guessing Crede is going to go like 1-40 and return around his .260+ avg since every season is indicated that a player will revert to his career numbers.. ;)

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QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 02:20 PM)
He's been playing almost everyday. ESPN says he's played in 78 games, and we're slightly over 100, no? That's a buttload of games. I don't see how he'd magically revert to his career numbers so suddenly.

So roughly half of what he played in for the Pirates. Another 78 games and im sure they will line up a little better.

Edited by RockRaines
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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 02:22 PM)
You know why he might? The reason why is in his splits this year.

AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG OPS

vs. Left 39 3 8 0 0 0 4 2 2 9 .205 .279 .205 .484

vs. Right 146 20 50 8 1 3 11 19 1 27 .342 .419 .473 .892

 

His numbers look damn good, because his numbers against lefties are terrible, his numbers against righties are freaking great, and he's faced righties almost 4x as many ABs as lefties. Even those numbers out some, and his numbers rapidly go down to his career numbers. Pods only hits. 239 against lefties, and he's still significantly better, even in the OBP. Mack would be ideal in a platoon corner outfield spot if we were to design something like that (actually, with Fields next year, that's not a terrible idea)

 

What happens when we face a lefty? Ozuna plays LF. So, does it even matter really how much better Pods is against lefties than Mack?

 

Let's also remember that Mackowiak is now on a better team that he's ever even come close to being on. His career numbers might look a little better if he weren't on all those garbage Pirate teams.

Edited by Milkman delivers
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QUOTE(The Ginger Kid @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 02:27 PM)
If I were Ozzie I'd tell my wife's cousin's nephew's sister's husband, Freddy Spicoli, to lay off the hippie lettuce.

 

Whats wrong with it? What he needs is some Eric Gagne, potential career ending j-u-i-c-e!!

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QUOTE(RockRaines @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 07:07 PM)
It wouldnt be. His career .328 OBP sucks balls for a leadoff man.

What are his career numbers against lefthanders and righthanders? I would play Mac in left field on a platoon basis if his numbers justified that Mac seems to be a better fielder than Podsednik and has a stronger arm.

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QUOTE(bigredrudy @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 01:00 PM)
What are his career numbers against lefthanders and righthanders? I would play Mac in left field on a platoon basis if his numbers justified that Mac seems to be a better fielder than Podsednik and has a stronger arm.

I can give you his 2003-2005 splits.

By Breakdown AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

vs. Left 165 17 38 3 5 1 17 7 2 38 0 1 .230 .269 .327 .596

vs. Right 963 125 256 44 8 31 135 101 11 229 27 7 .266 .340 .425 .765

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Aug 4, 2006 -> 08:02 PM)
I can give you his 2003-2005 splits.

By Breakdown AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

vs. Left 165 17 38 3 5 1 17 7 2 38 0 1 .230 .269 .327 .596

vs. Right 963 125 256 44 8 31 135 101 11 229 27 7 .266 .340 .425 .765

I think these numbers could justify a platoon situation for next year. Podsednik has lost a step or two since the first half of last year. His stealing percentage for stealing second base since the first half of last year is horrendous. I would bet that Mac is faster to first base than is pods and is faster to second. Pod's infield outs are not even close. He seems to have trouble getting started from a stopped position. I have to believe that Mac is a better fielder than Pods but how much better I don't know. Your thoughts and corrections if any

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