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Time for a lineup change


Balta1701

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QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Aug 6, 2006 -> 01:47 PM)
The offense has consistantly put up a lot of runs all season long. They had a bad 2 week stretch right after the allstar break and that was basically it. The offense has been outstanding this year.

All I'm saying is that saying "The offense has been outstanding" doesn't mean it's impossible for the offense to be even more effective than it has been.

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QUOTE(whitesoxfan101 @ Aug 6, 2006 -> 03:47 PM)
Do you have any statistical evidence to support this?? And also, we should win when we score 5 runs, and we should win when we lead 3-0 early.

 

So you want the offense to be more consistent? This argument is mind boggling, sometimes good pitching goes against us and we only score 3. That happens to EVERY TEAM, you can't score 5 or more every game, and you know what?? If our pitching wasn't so mediocre, we'd win some of the games we only score 3 in.

 

We should win when we score 5, but even good pitching allows 6 runs in a game now and then. We had the best pitching staff in the league last year, and I'm pretty sure there were games when the Sox staff allowed 6 or even 7 runs.

 

I don't have actual statistical evidence, at this point, to support it, but that's cuz I have to work in like 5 minutes. I'll try and get back to it later, or perhaps someone else will be able to before I do. That's just what seems like has happened this season, and it has happened in the past when we had a great offense too.

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QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Aug 6, 2006 -> 03:53 PM)
We should win when we score 5, but even good pitching allows 6 runs in a game now and then. We had the best pitching staff in the league last year, and I'm pretty sure there were games when the Sox staff allowed 6 or even 7 runs.

 

I don't have actual statistical evidence, at this point, to support it, but that's cuz I have to work in like 5 minutes. I'll try and get back to it later, or perhaps someone else will be able to before I do. That's just what seems like has happened this season, and it has happened in the past when we had a great offense too.

wite, this pitching staff has been bad so they've allowed 6 runs plenty of times this season. You're basically making the point for the offense that they can't score 6 or 7 runs every game, it just can't happen. Lets just say that the pitching has not won us many games this season.

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We have scored 622 runs in 109 games. Which is 5.7 runs per game. Our pitching gives up 4.64 runs per game. Lets just give you a feel for it, the Texas Rangers and their bad pitching is 4.70 runs per game.

 

 

You need pitching to compete. We need our starting pitchers to pitch better, make better pitches and not to crumble when someone gets on base. We need our pitchng to stop giving up big innings. We need our relievers to strand inherhited runners more than allow them to score And we need our manager to stop asking his pitchers on if they want to be removed or not. When a starting pitcher has reached the 7th inning plateau, and has over 100 pitches, and has given up a crooked number just a few innings earlier, in a one run game this is not the time to ask him so how do you feel, and then to stick with him.

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QUOTE(whitesoxfan101 @ Aug 6, 2006 -> 03:36 PM)
So the fact that we leading ALL OF BASEBALL in runs scored doesn't matter because you think our lineup (rather than our bad pitching) has lost us close games? That's a far more stupid argument by you.

 

Just because the offense is great doesn't mean it still can't get better. We should always strive to be better, and not have the "good enough" mentality.

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The problem is not Thome, per se. It's that 1-2-3 are extremely weak against LHP. So much so that it has become routine for a LOOGY to blow through our 1-2-3 late in the game. Moving Dye to #3 would help, but not that much.

 

We really need a threat against LHP in the #2 spot. If you want to move Jermaine anywhere, that's where it should be. JD #2 would neutralize the LOOGY, and you'd still have JD, THome, Kong going back-to-back-to-back.

 

Pods

JD

Thome

Kong

Crede

AJ

Iguchi

Uribe

Anderson

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QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Aug 6, 2006 -> 05:16 PM)
The problem is not Thome, per se. It's that 1-2-3 are extremely weak against LHP. So much so that it has become routine for a LOOGY to blow through our 1-2-3 late in the game. Moving Dye to #3 would help, but not that much.

 

We really need a threat against LHP in the #2 spot. If you want to move Jermaine anywhere, that's where it should be. JD #2 would neutralize the LOOGY, and you'd still have JD, THome, Kong going back-to-back-to-back.

 

Pods

JD

Thome

Kong

Crede

AJ

Iguchi

Uribe

Anderson

 

Now that's an idea I'd be more willing to listen to. It keeps the murderers 3 together, gives JD extra at bats, and kills off the LOOGY thing.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Aug 6, 2006 -> 03:10 PM)
Ok, so I know we've heard this before around here, and I know I'm going to either be labeled as annoying or as a flip-flopper, because I've been one of the loudest advocates for keeping Thome's OBP in the 3 slot, but as of today, I'm convinced.

 

Our lineup would be more effective if Jermaine Dye were in the 3 hole, Jim Thome were in the 4 hole, Paul Konerko were in the 5 hole, Joe Crede were in the 6 hole, and AJP were in the 7 hole.

 

So, why am I convinced today? All of the old arguments still fit. Moving Thome out of the 3 hole will probably cut into JD's RBI chances, because he will have fewer people on base. Thome may also score fewer runs because Dye won't be 2 guys behind him. Thome may drive in a few more from having JD in front of him, which would reduce the impact overall. But none of those are the key reason.

 

The reason we need to do this is the lefties. In the 6th inning today, Scott Schoenweis came in as a Loogy. Started off with Pods, got him, Iguchi, and Thome in short order.

 

The problem of course is that in terms of their numbers against lefties, these are basically our 3 worst guys in our lineup. Excluding Brian Anderson, and part-time guys, who's numbers will all be skewed, against lefties, the top 3 in our lineup look like this

 

BA OPS

Scott Podsednik .237 .608

Tadahito Iguchi .221 .650

Jim Thome .259 .768

 

Why is this important? It is important because it allows an opposing manager to, every game, send in a Loogy, and be able to get a quick, easy inning at the start of our lineup, and it allows that LOOGY to pitch to 3 people instead of one.

 

Here are Jermaine's #s against lefties:

Jermaine Dye .361 1.112

 

So, right now, we are struggling against lefties, and we have for much of the season. The weakness of our first 3 hitters against lefties, I feel, is one of the primary reasons. It allows managers to use 1 lefty to take out Podsednik, Iguchi, and Thome late in games without having anyone in there who we can count on to pound that lefty. By spreading out our lefties, and sticking Dye in there, I believe that our gains against left-handers will overcome the losses of total runs by moving Thome's OBP slightly lower in the order.

 

Anyway, I know Ozzie won't do this, as in his eyes what he's doing is working, but I wanted to make a thread about it anyway. Schoenweis's inning today just really pissed me off, because having these 3 guys in a row who aren't hitting lefties is giving opposing managers a big advantage. If they want to bring in a Loogy against Thome, they get the added gifts of Podsednik and Iguchi for that one pitcher. Sticking Dye in there would break that up, and make managers either feed a lefty to Dye, give a righty to Podsednik and Iguchi, or deplete their bullpen by using 3 pitchers.

wow, I said this 5 days ago. I agree with you totally. Dye is most effective IMO in that spot.

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If I'm reading the thread right (I like to think that I am), changing the lineup is going to help the pitching staff pitch better?

 

As pointed out by some posters, the Sox offense is #1 in runs scored. Offense isn't the problem, the pitching staff not protecting leads (Such as today's 3 run lead over a slumping team or giving up 15 runs to the Cubs when the offense scores 11) is the problem.

 

Freddy, Jose, Mark and Javy have been very inconsistent for the last two months and when the offense hit a slump after the break, it was finally exposed. The 6 - 3 road trip, while good, still showed signs the pitching staff hasn't come around. We better hope the O doesn't go into another slump cuz if they do, the Sox might be toast.

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QUOTE(Allsox @ Aug 6, 2006 -> 09:13 PM)
If I'm reading the thread right (I like to think that I am), changing the lineup is going to help the pitching staff pitch better?

 

As pointed out by some posters, the Sox offense is #1 in runs scored. Offense isn't the problem, the pitching staff not protecting leads (Such as today's 3 run lead over a slumping team or giving up 15 runs to the Cubs when the offense scores 11) is the problem.

 

Freddy, Jose, Mark and Javy have been very inconsistent for the last two months and when the offense hit a slump after the break, it was finally exposed. The 6 - 3 road trip, while good, still showed signs the pitching staff hasn't come around. We better hope the O doesn't go into another slump cuz if they do, the Sox might be toast.

 

I don't think it's hard to understand this. Yes, the offense is the best in baseball. But, it can still get better (the point Balta is making).

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Aug 6, 2006 -> 01:10 PM)
Ok, so I know we've heard this before around here, and I know I'm going to either be labeled as annoying or as a flip-flopper, because I've been one of the loudest advocates for keeping Thome's OBP in the 3 slot, but as of today, I'm convinced.

 

Our lineup would be more effective if Jermaine Dye were in the 3 hole, Jim Thome were in the 4 hole, Paul Konerko were in the 5 hole, Joe Crede were in the 6 hole, and AJP were in the 7 hole.

 

So, why am I convinced today? All of the old arguments still fit. Moving Thome out of the 3 hole will probably cut into JD's RBI chances, because he will have fewer people on base. Thome may also score fewer runs because Dye won't be 2 guys behind him. Thome may drive in a few more from having JD in front of him, which would reduce the impact overall. But none of those are the key reason.

 

The reason we need to do this is the lefties. In the 6th inning today, Scott Schoenweis came in as a Loogy. Started off with Pods, got him, Iguchi, and Thome in short order.

 

The problem of course is that in terms of their numbers against lefties, these are basically our 3 worst guys in our lineup. Excluding Brian Anderson, and part-time guys, who's numbers will all be skewed, against lefties, the top 3 in our lineup look like this

 

BA OPS

Scott Podsednik .237 .608

Tadahito Iguchi .221 .650

Jim Thome .259 .768

 

Why is this important? It is important because it allows an opposing manager to, every game, send in a Loogy, and be able to get a quick, easy inning at the start of our lineup, and it allows that LOOGY to pitch to 3 people instead of one.

 

Here are Jermaine's #s against lefties:

Jermaine Dye .361 1.112

 

So, right now, we are struggling against lefties, and we have for much of the season. The weakness of our first 3 hitters against lefties, I feel, is one of the primary reasons. It allows managers to use 1 lefty to take out Podsednik, Iguchi, and Thome late in games without having anyone in there who we can count on to pound that lefty. By spreading out our lefties, and sticking Dye in there, I believe that our gains against left-handers will overcome the losses of total runs by moving Thome's OBP slightly lower in the order.

 

Anyway, I know Ozzie won't do this, as in his eyes what he's doing is working, but I wanted to make a thread about it anyway. Schoenweis's inning today just really pissed me off, because having these 3 guys in a row who aren't hitting lefties is giving opposing managers a big advantage. If they want to bring in a Loogy against Thome, they get the added gifts of Podsednik and Iguchi for that one pitcher. Sticking Dye in there would break that up, and make managers either feed a lefty to Dye, give a righty to Podsednik and Iguchi, or deplete their bullpen by using 3 pitchers.

As much as i'd like Oz to make that move, I think its probably too late. Its not like anyone of those guys are slumping, in fact their all having great years. But i do agree that lineup may give us more consistency, but i guess if it ain't broke dont fix it.
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QUOTE(whitesoxfan101 @ Aug 6, 2006 -> 06:00 PM)
Now that's an idea I'd be more willing to listen to. It keeps the murderers 3 together, gives JD extra at bats, and kills off the LOOGY thing.

 

Balta suggested Pods, Goochi, Dye, Thome, Konerko

 

From what I can gather of that, it keeps the murderers 3 together, gives JD extra at bats, and kills the LOOGY thing...not nearly to the point that Cheat's does, but it does it.

 

 

Cheat...in theory, I'd like your suggestion, but I don't think there's a chance in hell Ozzie even considers it. His #2 guy is getting on base when the leadoff man isn't, and he's getting him over when he gets him on(though I'm not nearly sure how true that's been this year).

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QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Aug 7, 2006 -> 02:21 AM)
I don't think it's hard to understand this. Yes, the offense is the best in baseball. But, it can still get better (the point Balta is making).

 

To which my question still stands:

How does changing the lineup help the pitching staff pitch better?

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QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Aug 7, 2006 -> 11:53 AM)
It doesn't. A lineup tweak may improve the offense. Who said anything about pitching?

 

Well, the argument that's going back and forth is that the offense doesn't need to get better, the pitching does.

 

The fact is, we really don't know how to make the pitching better. But, we might just be able to make the offense slightly better, which would help to bail out the pitching.

 

Making this chance wouldn't cause Freddy to throw harder or Vazquez to not implode, but it might give us a little more insurance for the barrage of runs our starters give up.

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It's a good argument for JD in the 3 hole where he hit with some success last year, too. My only concern would be the timing of the move - it's late in the season and everyone's got a role right now and to mix that up could go either way. Can we afford to have it backfire? Every game is a playoff game from here on out.

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QUOTE(The Ginger Kid @ Aug 7, 2006 -> 01:01 PM)
It's a good argument for JD in the 3 hole where he hit with some success last year, too. My only concern would be the timing of the move - it's late in the season and everyone's got a role right now and to mix that up could go either way. Can we afford to have it backfire? Every game is a playoff game from here on out.

It's not a big enough change to have a backfire, I don't believe. This is just a smart move to protect against lefties.

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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Aug 7, 2006 -> 01:12 PM)
Thome has been an on-base machine since he got back. I doubt Ozzie moves him out of the 3-hole now. He's also due for a barrage of homers. Hopefully that starts tonight.

 

Yeah, we've been waiting for this barrage for a while now. I'm beginning to question whether he'll make 50 this year. And a lot of other power guys have left him in the dust.

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QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Aug 7, 2006 -> 01:26 PM)
Yeah, we've been waiting for this barrage for a while now. I'm beginning to question whether he'll make 50 this year. And a lot of other power guys have left him in the dust.

I was just debating this with myself earlier. Ortiz has basically just taken any chance for an AL MVP for Thome by going off, and now theres a chance Thome won't get to 50, despite starting on pace for like 80 after 30 games. I REALLY hope his homer barrage starts tonight, because we could REALLY use them.

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QUOTE(TitoMB345 @ Aug 7, 2006 -> 11:28 AM)
I was just debating this with myself earlier. Ortiz has basically just taken any chance for an AL MVP for Thome by going off, and now theres a chance Thome won't get to 50, despite starting on pace for like 80 after 30 games. I REALLY hope his homer barrage starts tonight, because we could REALLY use them.

Back in ST, he did say that he usually started taking a lot of pitches/walks right before he started really nailing the ball.

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