65-45, tied for WC lead, 1/2 game ahead of MN

[VAfan]

We are 65-45 with 52 games left in the regular season.

 

Reasons for hope.

 

-- We are on pace to win 95.7 games, which I will round up to 96. I believe no team with 96 wins has missed the playoffs since the wild card was put in place.

 

-- Our offense leads the majors in runs scored, with 625.

 

-- We have outscored our opponents by 88 runs, which trails only Detroit (+150) and NYY (+97) in the AL. We are better in this category than our two WC rivals Boston (+59) and Minny (+70).

 

-- We are only 15-14 in 1-run games, after leading the majors in this category last year. Any return to more normal levels should improve this success rate.

 

-- No one thinks we have played up to our potential.

 

-- Every one of our starting pitchers, except Jose Contreras, is currently above their career ERA totals. Regression to the mean suggests they will all pitch better from here to the end of the season. Also,

 

- Jon Garland is on an 8-game winning streak.

- Javy Vazquez pitched his best game the last time out.

- Mark Buehrle gave up only 3 runs in 6 innings, following a game where he gave up only 2 runs in 6 innings.

 

-- After months of moves, the White Sox finally have a stable and deep bullpen. And, thanks to Ozzie, it has once again pitched the fewest innings in baseball. It is rested and ready for a stretch run. Our bullpen has also blown only 12 saves -- only 5 teams have blown fewer.

 

-- Perhaps our most dangerous rival for the Wild Card -- Minnesota -- appears to have lost its best starting pitcher -- Francisco Liriano -- to the disabled list. Given his potential, Minnesota will err on the side of caution by making sure he is completely healthy again before he pitches. When he entered the rotation, they became a threat. With him on the sidelines, they won't be as bad as they were to start the season, but they aren't the same team.

 

-- Our other chief WC rival -- Boston -- has lost its starting catcher for a month to 6 weeks. Though he was not hitting that well, he was still the principal signal caller. Boston also has a patchwork starting staff. Their team ERA of 4.60 is barely better than our own 4.65.

 

Reasons for despair

 

-- We have the toughest schedule down the stretch of any of our rivals.

 

-- Our team ERA of 4.65 is a run worse than it was last year.

 

-- Ozzie Guillen has repeatedly left our tired starting pitchers in to lose ballgames that might have been won by using our bullpen.

 

-- Joe Crede experienced back pain this week. Juan Uribe also is having back pains.

 

-- The top of our lineup is pathetic against left handed pitchers. This makes us susceptible to LH starters and LOOGYs.

 

-- The bottom of the lineup has two players -- Brian Anderson and Juan Uribe -- with OBPs under .300. Indeed, our lineup is crippled by several players with RC27 numbers that are pretty awful. Out of 176 MLB players who have enough ABs to qualify, this is where some our players would rank: BA 3.22 (would be 174th), Cintron 3.76 (would be 170th), Uribe 3.93 (is 164th), Podsednik 4.60 (is 139th). I believe we have fielded a lineup with those 4 guys hitting 8, 9, 1 and 2.

 

-- Two of our starting pitchers could easily have their worst seasons in MLB -- Freddy Garcia and Mark Buehrle.

 

-- Until his last start, Javy Vazquez could not get past the 6th inning or the 3rd time through opponents' lineups without getting torched and giving up leads the White Sox held. In none of those games, did Ozzie Guillen make a move to bring in Brandon McCarthy so we could win the game.

 

 

COMMENT

 

I've tried to make this a fairly objective list. And, writing it out, it actually gives me a lot more reason for hope than I otherwise had after last night's game. This team isn't nearly ready to repeat as World Series champions, but it does appear to have the potential to win the AL Wild Card race -- in part because our opponents have absorbed some blows themselves recently -- and if it gets into the playoffs, anything is possible.

 

GO WHITE SOX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[LVSoxFan]

Nice work, VAFan, that just about sums it up. I guess we'll all have a much better idea what the future holds after this weekend.

 

:0

[Milkman delivers]

I don't have a chance to read this yet since I'm leaving work any minute, but I have to admit I've really come to enjoy VAfan's posts. Always well thought out and written.

[BigSqwert]

I don't have a chance to read this yet since I'm leaving work any minute, but I have to admit I've really come to enjoy VAfan's posts. Always well thought out and written.

When are the next ST awards?

[Hangar18]

say man, that is a pretty good way at looking at things from both sides. We've only got 7 weeks left to watch baseball, and to tell you the truth, the Wild Card is bogus, but im not too proud to say I hope we can make that.

[Milkman delivers]

When are the next ST awards?

 

I think they happen around the end of the year, like December or something?

[NorthSideSox72]

Pretty good summary. Things are not so gloomy, at this point.

 

We'll have a really good picture of the division at the end of August, I think.

[Leonard Zelig]

But Buehrle really gave up 6 runs in 6.2 innings.

[Balta1701]

But Buehrle really gave up 6 runs in 6.2 innings.

No, Buehrle gave up 3 runs in 6.1 innings. Ozzie gave up 3 runs in .2 inning.

Edited August 8, 2006 by Balta1701

[PA32R]

No, Buehrle gave up 3 runs in 6.1 innings. Ozzie gave up 3 runs in .2 inning.

 

No, Ozzie was an unindited co-conspirator. The millionaires on the field have to get the job done. I'm not saying that it wasn't a ludicrously bad decision to leave MB in, but come on. A balk?

 

By the way, per Benjamin Franklin, The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. How does that not apply to both Ozzie (leaving starting pitchers in long enough to put the game out of reach) and MB (trying to get the call yesterday on the outside pitch)?

[ecoyne]

We are 65-45 with 52 games left in the regular season.

 

Reasons for hope.

 

-- After months of moves, the White Sox finally have a stable and deep bullpen. And, thanks to Ozzie, it has once again pitched the fewest innings in baseball. It is rested and ready for a stretch run. Our bullpen has also blown only 12 saves -- only 5 teams have blown fewer.

 

I think there is a reason why Ozzie has allowed his bullpen to be so well rested. It has not been stable this season with a combined ERA of 4.33. They are ranked 19th in major league baseball at this point in time by virtue of this stat. In 2005, the White Sox bullpen finished 3rd with a combined ERA of 3.23. You have to admit, the bullpen that is present today is a far cry from the efforts of last year.

Edited August 8, 2006 by soxunited

[Harry&JimmyRocked]

in your "hope" section most of that stuff is things that are not facts. they are things that people would hope would be. the dread section gives us facts and has no "well, it's go to get better right?"

 

the only good thing goin for this team was the injuries to varitek and liriano...AND THAT'S SAD

[elrockinMT]

We can still get into the playoffs. Whew!

[VAfan]

in your "hope" section most of that stuff is things that are not facts. they are things that people would hope would be. the dread section gives us facts and has no "well, it's go to get better right?"

 

the only good thing goin for this team was the injuries to varitek and liriano...AND THAT'S SAD

 

Not true. Runs scored and run differential are both significant facts in which we are currently better than our chief rivals for the WC. Plus, we do have a well-rested bullpen and 5 veteran starters.

 

Moreover, one of key elements of the despair section -- like Ozzie's decision to leave his starters in too long and his failure to use McCarthy to save his starters and help win games -- can be changed today by Ozzie making better choices.

 

Check out Rick Morrissey's column in the Trib today. http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sp...hitesox-utility

 

As my comment says, after the Angels game on Monday, I was among those who Morrissey is writing about. But penning this post actually made me feel like there is hope for this team after all. After last night's game, I'm not shouting from the rooftops, but I feel like the hope is legitimate.

 

GO WHITE SOX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SPANK THE YANKS AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[VAfan]

I think there is a reason why Ozzie has allowed his bullpen to be so well rested. It has not been stable this season with a combined ERA of 4.33. They are ranked 19th in major league baseball at this point in time by virtue of this stat. In 2005, the White Sox bullpen finished 3rd with a combined ERA of 3.23. You have to admit, the bullpen that is present today is a far cry from the efforts of last year.

 

Yes, I would admit this.

 

I think our bullpen could go either way. How good can Mike MacDougal be down the stretch? Can Matt Thornton keep throwing strikes? Can Neal Cotts be 90% of what he was last season? Will Ozzie use McCarthy properly, to save our starters 3 times a week? Will Bobby Jenks hold up with greater use? Has Riske figured out his release point?

 

Still, this is a much better bullpen than we have had at any time prior to this point in the season.

[Rowand44]

I think there is a reason why Ozzie has allowed his bullpen to be so well rested. It has not been stable this season with a combined ERA of 4.33. They are ranked 19th in major league baseball at this point in time by virtue of this stat. In 2005, the White Sox bullpen finished 3rd with a combined ERA of 3.23. You have to admit, the bullpen that is present today is a far cry from the efforts of last year.

That era is much higher because of Cliff, Montero and Boone Logan. This is a fine bullpen now, even though Cotts has been awful the last month.

Edited August 9, 2006 by Rowand44

[VAfan]

We are now 71-46, having beaten the Yanks 2 out of 3, swept the Tigers, and walloped the Royals 12-2. We have a 3 game lead in the wild card over Boston and the Twins. The Tigers are now just 5-1/2 back.

 

The day I put this up I was bummed, but writing it helped me put our situation in perspective. And since then we've been on a tear. Even the one loss was encouraging. Down 7-0 to the Yanks, with Randy Johnson no-hitting us through 6 innings, we stormed back with 6 runs and let the Yanks know that no lead is safe against us. Since then we've won 5 in a row.

 

The two biggest things in this stretch is a series of quality starts -- only Garland's loss to the Yanks was subpar -- and offensive contributions from the 8, 9, 1, and 2 hitters. Those guys (except Iguchi) sucked in the loss to the Yanks, when any hit from any of them could have won the game, but since then they have helped the team win multiple games with their hitting. This makes the Sox a complete team again because everyone is helping out.

 

GO WHITE SOX!!!!!!!!!!!!