brijames Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Ozzie has been saying the last few weeks that 95 will get you in but I'm saying 96 to be safe. That means the White Sox have to go 20-12 in their last 32, the Twins need to go 20-13 in their last 33. The Tigers who I still believe will win the division need to go only 14-15 in their last 29 to reach 96. The RedSox and Angels pretty much have no shot at the wildcard and would have to win their division. Looking at the remaining schedule you have to say that the Twins have the advantage as the White Sox have 3 at Boston then that killer 6 game trip to Oak and Anaheim, then have to finish with 3 at Minn. Losing 2 of 3 this past weekend was a real killer. At this point the Sox just need to approach every game as a must win and just get to that 96 wins and see where they stand. They can't worry about the Tigers or Twins but only about the team they are playing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Princess Dye Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 i predict we will need more wins than two of these three teams: Detroit, Minnesota, Boston. ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilliamTell Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 how about we get 99 again just like last year, but that's wishful thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCSox Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 IIRC, it's been a long time since a team with 94 wins didn't get into the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mumu Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 QUOTE(WCSox @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 12:46 PM) IIRC, it's been a long time since a team with 94 wins didn't get into the playoffs. That doesn't mean a thing if we don't finish ahead of Minnesota. If the Twins win 96 games, and we win 95, we're out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCSox Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 QUOTE(mu mu @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 11:05 AM) That doesn't mean a thing if we don't finish ahead of Minnesota. If the Twins win 96 games, and we win 95, we're out. Well, yes. I was just giving some historical perspective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 QUOTE(WCSox @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 12:46 PM) IIRC, it's been a long time since a team with 94 wins didn't get into the playoffs. Well all 4 al teams did have at least 95 wins last year. The Indians however were the last team left out and they were at 93 so ya you're right, but you see my point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benbacca37 Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 What did Cleveland finish with last year? Was it 93? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 (edited) QUOTE(benbacca37 @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 01:22 PM) What did Cleveland finish with last year? Was it 93? Yeup. Edited August 28, 2006 by Rowand44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benbacca37 Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Nevermind Rowand was just a hair quicker with my answer than I was with my question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ginger Kid Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 (edited) This is going to be one helluva September. With the Sox facing the DRays and Minny playing KC and Detriot in NY, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the standings beginning September 1st looked something like: Det -- Minn 3.0 (2 back in the loss column) Sox 3.5 Here's to pitching and timely hitting! Edited August 28, 2006 by The Ginger Kid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 QUOTE(brijames @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 11:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Ozzie has been saying the last few weeks that 95 will get you in but I'm saying 96 to be safe. That means the White Sox have to go 20-12 in their last 32, the Twins need to go 20-13 in their last 33. The Tigers who I still believe will win the division need to go only 14-15 in their last 29 to reach 96. The RedSox and Angels pretty much have no shot at the wildcard and would have to win their division. Looking at the remaining schedule you have to say that the Twins have the advantage as the White Sox have 3 at Boston then that killer 6 game trip to Oak and Anaheim, then have to finish with 3 at Minn. Losing 2 of 3 this past weekend was a real killer. At this point the Sox just need to approach every game as a must win and just get to that 96 wins and see where they stand. They can't worry about the Tigers or Twins but only about the team they are playing. This is going to be a huge prediction, but I predict the Tigers miss the playoffs. I think they go 10-19, the Sox go 20-12 and the Twins go 21-12. That is what I think happens. The Sox win the Wild Card and the Twins win the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgaudin Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 QUOTE(southsideirish @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 03:11 PM) This is going to be a huge prediction, but I predict the Tigers miss the playoffs. I think they go 10-19, the Sox go 20-12 and the Twins go 21-12. That is what I think happens. The Sox win the Wild Card and the Twins win the division. I've looked at the remaining games for the 3 top AL Central teams and it doesn't look good for the Sox. I can't see them winning more than 19 games, tops. That last West Division roadtrip scares the hell out of me. The Sox play badly at these cities, and both are fighting for their playoff lives. Minnesota has a much more favorable schedule. They don't go west anymore, and they get KC 7 games and TB for 3 games, as well as Cleveland another 4 games who they have owned. They play their last 7 games AT HOME, huge. Detroit will have a moderate schedule as well. They don't travel west and will play KC 6 times. But their schedule is a bit tougher than Minnesota's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 QUOTE(southsideirish @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 04:11 PM) This is going to be a huge prediction, but I predict the Tigers miss the playoffs. I think they go 10-19, the Sox go 20-12 and the Twins go 21-12. That is what I think happens. The Sox win the Wild Card and the Twins win the division. I think Minny catches them but they hold us off down the stretch. Hopefully I'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ginger Kid Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 QUOTE(southsideirish @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 01:11 PM) This is going to be a huge prediction, but I predict the Tigers miss the playoffs. I think they go 10-19, the Sox go 20-12 and the Twins go 21-12. That is what I think happens. The Sox win the Wild Card and the Twins win the division. bold prediction, but by no means out of the question. Since the first of August their lead has dwindled. Pitching will be the key to unravel this mystery. Don't be surprised if the Sox take 2 of 3 from Minny on the last weekend to lock up the division and hand the twins the wild card. Something tells me the tigers are sloooowly fading.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLAK Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 This is what it has taken to win the Wild Card: year NL AL 2005 HOU 89 BOS 95 2004 HOU 92 BOS 98 2003 FLA 91 BOS 95 2002 SFG 95 ANA 99 2001 STL 93 OAK 102 2000 NYM 94 SEA 91 1999 NYM 97 BOS 94 1998 CHC 90 BOS 92 1997 FLA 92 NYY 96 1996 LAD 90 BAL 88 1995 COL 77 NYY 79 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Before someone makes mention, I'd like to point out the reason the totals are so low in 95 is because it was a strike shortened season. Either way, you can see that the AL seems to be the league thats harder to win the wild card in (well more wins anyway) and I guess that coincides with the AL's recent dominance in the All Star game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 (edited) QUOTE(TLAK @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 08:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> This is what it has taken to win the Wild Card: year NL AL 2005 HOU 89 BOS 95 2004 HOU 92 BOS 98 2003 FLA 91 BOS 95 2002 SFG 95 ANA 99 2001 STL 93 OAK 102 2000 NYM 94 SEA 91 1999 NYM 97 BOS 94 1998 CHC 90 BOS 92 1997 FLA 92 NYY 96 1996 LAD 90 BAL 88 1995 COL 77 NYY 79 That is great and all, but who really cares? You have a 98.77% chance of making the playoffs if you have 95+ wins since the birth of the wild card. In the American League you can make that a 100% chance. No team with 95 or more wins in the American League has ever missed the playoffs since the birth of the wild card. Only 1 team EVER has missed the playoffs with 95 or more wins since the birth of the wild card. That team is the 1999 Cincinatti Reds. Here the stats: 1995 ATL 90 54 CIN 85 59 LAD 78 66 COL 77 67 CLE 100 44 BOS 86 58 SEA 79 66 NYY 79 65 1996 ATL 96 66 SDP 91 71 LAD 90 72 STL 88 74 CLE 99 62 NYY 92 70 TEX 90 72 BAL 88 74 1997 ATL 101 61 FLA 92 70 SFG 90 72 HOU 84 78 BAL 98 64 NYY 96 66 SEA 90 72 CLE 86 75 1998 ATL 106 56 HOU 102 60 SDP 98 64 CHC 90 73 NYY 114 48 BOS 92 70 CLE 89 73 TEX 88 74 1999 ATL 103 59 ARI 100 62 HOU 97 65 NYM 97 66 NYY 98 64 CLE 97 65 TEX 95 67 BOS 94 68 Missed the playoffs: CIN 96 67 2000 SFG 97 65 ATL 95 67 STL 95 67 NYM 94 68 NYY 87 74 CHW 95 67 OAK 91 70 SEA 91 71 2001 HOU 93 69 STL 93 69 ARI 92 70 ATL 88 74 SEA 116 46 OAK 102 60 NYY 95 65 CLE 91 71 2002 ATL 101 59 ARI 98 64 STL 97 65 SFG 95 66 NYY 103 58 OAK 103 59 ANA 99 63 MIN 94 67 2003 ATL 101 61 SFG 100 61 FLA 91 71 CHC 88 74 NYY 101 61 OAK 96 66 BOS 95 67 MIN 90 72 2004 STL 105 57 ATL 96 66 LAD 93 69 HOU 92 70 NYY 101 61 BOS 98 64 MIN 92 70 ANA 92 70 2005 STL 100 62 ATL 90 72 HOU 89 73 SDP 82 80 CHW 99 63 NYY 95 67 LAA 95 67 BOS 95 67 QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 08:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Before someone makes mention, I'd like to point out the reason the totals are so low in 95 is because it was a strike shortened season. Either way, you can see that the AL seems to be the league thats harder to win the wild card in (well more wins anyway) and I guess that coincides with the AL's recent dominance in the All Star game. I don't think that is what those records show at all. A 95+ win team in the American League has never missed the playoffs since the birth of the wildcard. The only team with 95+ wins that has missed the playoffs since the birth of the wild card were the 1999 Cin Reds. I don't think the stats or records TLAK presented show anything to be honest with you. Edited August 29, 2006 by southsideirish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 You're only talking about 10 seasons. Thats not exactly a large sample size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hangar18 Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 I think its going to take 99 myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 You have to look at the second team in the wild card standing to know what it took. A team may have taken the wild card with 98 wins, but if the runner up only had 89 then it actually took 90. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsideirish Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 11:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> You're only talking about 10 seasons. Thats not exactly a large sample size. It's not? Then what is? It is since the birth of the wild card. You don't have anything else to compare it to. Give me a better example then. QUOTE(Texsox @ Aug 29, 2006 -> 01:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> You have to look at the second team in the wild card standing to know what it took. A team may have taken the wild card with 98 wins, but if the runner up only had 89 then it actually took 90. Texsox - it really doesn't matter. I understand your point and I totally agree with it, but since the birth of the wild card only one team with 95 plus wins has missed out on the playoffs. To me, that says it all right there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 QUOTE(southsideirish @ Aug 29, 2006 -> 02:57 PM) Texsox - it really doesn't matter. I understand your point and I totally agree with it, but since the birth of the wild card only one team with 95 plus wins has missed out on the playoffs. To me, that says it all right there. What it tells me is either Minny or the Sox will stumble. Which is probably accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 QUOTE(Texsox @ Aug 29, 2006 -> 02:43 PM) What it tells me is either Minny or the Sox will stumble. Which is probably accurate. Or Detroit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2006 -> 04:50 PM) Or Detroit. Less probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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