96 wins will get you into the AL playoffs

[Hangar18]

but since the birth of the wild card only one team with 95 plus wins has missed out on the playoffs. To me, that says it all right there.

 

So the SOX have to go 19-13 the rest of the way to make the wildcard. That means the Twinks have to majorly stumble also. I dont see it. I see the SOX doing the stumbling, especially during that west coast trip. Im very worried about that. Dye #3 helps now. Anderson FT CF rest of the way will help too.

[Balta1701]

Less probably.

Talk to me again next Sunday after Detroit is done with NYY and the Halos. If it's still 4-5 games or more a lead, then I'll agree. But they're 6-13 in their last 19 games. And they still have to go to both Minny and Chicago.

[Texsox]

Talk to me again next Sunday after Detroit is done with NYY and the Halos. If it's still 4-5 games or more a lead, then I'll agree. But they're 6-13 in their last 19 games. And they still have to go to both Minny and Chicago.

 

I should say it is more probable Detroit will have a worse record than either Minny or the Sox in this last stretch. I don't believe they will collapse enough for both teams to pass them.

[Balta1701]

I should say it is more probable Detroit will have a worse record than either Minny or the Sox in this last stretch. I don't believe they will collapse enough for both teams to pass them.

The whole reason I'm looking at Detroit right now is that I'm looking at recent history, where both the White Sox and Twinkies have played better than Detroit recently, Detroit is missing at least 1 key piece, Detroit is giving playing time to Neifi Perez, and Detroit has to face the 2 teams chasing them on the road, along with the Yankees on the road right now.

 

We'll really know a lot about what Detroit has left in the tank after the LA Angels go to Detroit next weekend I think. If they don't pull out of their slide and play darn well against the Yankees and Halos, then they'll have a 3 game with Seattle before a big 4 game series at the Twinkie dome. Meanwhile, the White Sox are playing the D-Rays and Royals, and the Twins get 3 games at home against the Royals before going to New York for 3. Both teams have a real opportunity to make up a lot of ground very quickly here if Detroit doesn't play well. Detroit could literally be several games out of the Wild Card by the end of that 4 game set in Minnesota if they don't turn around quick.

[Texsox]

This is one of those I agree with the analysis, but my gut tells me Detroit stays ahead of either the Sox or the Twins. I can see one or the other passing them by. I can't see them not making the playoffs at this time. In fact, having this slump may help them, like it did the Sox way back in 2005 when they won the division.

[Balta1701]

This is one of those I agree with the analysis, but my gut tells me Detroit stays ahead of either the Sox or the Twins. I can see one or the other passing them by. I can't see them not making the playoffs at this time. In fact, having this slump may help them, like it did the Sox way back in 2005 when they won the division.

A lot of it depends on how they react right now. Like I said, they have a much tougher next 3 days than either the White Sox or Twins. It's entirely possible that their lead could be down to 2 games or less by the time the Angels roll into Detroit this weekend if Detroit doesn't step up right now. The White Sox found it in them to step it up right when things looked their darkest, that day when some sort of human-animal hybrid caused Ken Harrelson's head to explode. Detroit is going to be looking at having that day this week or next. They don't have Polonco, I don't think the pitching matchups favor them in these next 6 days, and they don't have momentum right now.

 

My gut tells me they're in real trouble, but my head tells me that I'll know a lot more next Sunday when they've finished with the Angels.

[StrangeSox]

It's not? Then what is? It is since the birth of the wild card. You don't have anything else to compare it to. Give me a better example then.

 

I'm not saying that you're intentionally leaving out data. But you're acting like a team with 95 wins will never miss the playoffs because it hasn't happened in 10 tries yet.

[Texsox]

A lot of it depends on how they react right now. Like I said, they have a much tougher next 3 days than either the White Sox or Twins. It's entirely possible that their lead could be down to 2 games or less by the time the Angels roll into Detroit this weekend if Detroit doesn't step up right now. The White Sox found it in them to step it up right when things looked their darkest, that day when some sort of human-animal hybrid caused Ken Harrelson's head to explode. Detroit is going to be looking at having that day this week or next. They don't have Polonco, I don't think the pitching matchups favor them in these next 6 days, and they don't have momentum right now.

 

My gut tells me they're in real trouble, but my head tells me that I'll know a lot more next Sunday when they've finished with the Angels.

 

They do have some veteran leadership, so it should be interesting. I think the key is winning series. I don't see any of these three going on a 10 game winning streak at this point in the season. Each team has a stopper, and not in the good way. So whichever team(s) win the most series will be in. I am beginning to like your scenario more and more. Keep talking, I could be a sailor up on the rocks in no time listening to this siren song . . .

[shakes]

The White Sox found it in them to step it up right when things looked their darkest, that day when some sort of human-animal hybrid caused Ken Harrelson's head to explode.

 

Balta, you have me laughing with that one, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Hawk's head will explode soon.

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(Hangar18 @ Aug 29, 2006 -> 04:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So the SOX have to go 19-13 the rest of the way to make the wildcard. That means the Twinks have to majorly stumble also. I dont see it. I see the SOX doing the stumbling, especially during that west coast trip. Im very worried about that. Dye #3 helps now. Anderson FT CF rest of the way will help too.

 

 

 

Because you are a pessimistic fan, which is ok. The Twins don't HAVE to do the stumbling. Detroit can stumble to both the Twins and the Sox - which is what I see happening and I have predicted happening. The West coast trip doesn't worry me at all.

[lukeman89]

with the way the AL beat up on the NL this year, it would make sense if it took more than 95 for the AL wildcard

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Aug 29, 2006 -> 05:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not saying that you're intentionally leaving out data. But you're acting like a team with 95 wins will never miss the playoffs because it hasn't happened in 10 tries yet.

 

 

 

Where the hell did I say that? I even gave percentages. It has never happened in the American League and only once in the National League. Given those odds I will say that 95 wins gets us in the playoffs. 3 teams in the same division will not win 95+ games. Boston and NY will not both win 95+ games. Oak and LAA will not win 95+ games. 95 wins gets us in the playoffs. It is pretty simple.

 

 

 

QUOTE(lukeman89 @ Aug 29, 2006 -> 11:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

with the way the AL beat up on the NL this year, it would make sense if it took more than 95 for the AL wildcard

 

 

 

So you think 3 teams from the same division will win 95 games? Do you think Boston is going to win 95 games? Do you think LAA and Oakland will both win 95 games? If you said yes to all of that then you are correct, it will take more than 95 games to get in. Just because the AL beat up on the NL does not have it make sense that it will take more than 95 games for the AL wildcard. That is nonsense.

Edited August 30, 2006 by southsideirish

[Jordan4life_2007]

Where the hell did I say that? I even gave percentages. It has never happened in the American League and only once in the National League. Given those odds I will say that 95 wins gets us in the playoffs. 3 teams in the same division will not win 95+ games. Boston and NY will not both win 95+ games. Oak and LAA will not win 95+ games. 95 wins gets us in the playoffs. It is pretty simple.

 

 

 

 

So you think 3 teams from the same division will win 95 games? Do you think Boston is going to win 95 games? Do you think LAA and Oakland will both win 95 games? If you said yes to all of that then you are correct, it will take more than 95 games to get in. Just because the AL beat up on the NL does not have it make sense that it will take more than 95 games for the AL wildcard. That is nonsense.

 

Yeah. 95 wins will do it.

[Bubba Philips]

Yeah. 95 wins will do it.

tigers 16wins 15 losses =31 remaining games +82 wins =98 wins/ losses 64

minnesota 22 wins 10 losses=32 remaining games +76 wins = 98 wins/losses 64 Now if the sox can go 21 and 10=31 remaining games 77+21 =98/wins 64 losses... I discounted Boston but for the wild card and even the Central division aren't over yet . SO

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(forrestg @ Aug 30, 2006 -> 12:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

tigers 16wins 15 losses =31 remaining games +82 wins =98 wins/ losses 64

minnesota 22 wins 10 losses=32 remaining games +76 wins = 98 wins/losses 64 Now if the sox can go 21 and 10=31 remaining games 77+21 =98/wins 64 losses... I discounted Boston but for the wild card and even the Central division aren't over yet . SO

 

 

 

Detroit will go 11-20. Minnesota will go 18-14. The White Sox will go 18-13. White Sox win the division. Twins win the wild card. Tigers are out. Too bad, soo sad, bye bye.

[Texsox]

Just because the AL beat up on the NL does not have it make sense that it will take more than 95 games for the AL wildcard. That is nonsense.

 

Before interleague play, wins and loses would equal out in each league. Now with interleague play, this year there will be more wins in the AL than loses and vice versa. I thought it was an interesting observation.

 

Put another way, there will be more wins than loses in the AL and more loses than wins in the NL. Subtracting wins from loses in the AL will result in a positive number and a negative number in the NL. With more wins spread around this year, it could take more to win the wild card. So it isn't nonsense.

 

If I did some quick math here, adding up wins and subtracting loses, the AL has 55 more wins than loses.

[Hangar18]

Because you are a pessimistic fan, which is ok. The Twins don't HAVE to do the stumbling. Detroit can stumble to both the Twins and the Sox - which is what I see happening and I have predicted happening. The West coast trip doesn't worry me at all.

 

 

 

Best case scenario, is that BOTH teams stumble, with someone majorly stumbling.

That takes alot of luck, but that also takes into account the SOX going on a major HOT streak, something they havnt done since June/early July

[Zoogz]

Detroit will go 11-20. Minnesota will go 18-14. The White Sox will go 18-13. White Sox win the division. Twins win the wild card. Tigers are out. Too bad, soo sad, bye bye.

 

That is a bold prediction... you believe that a team that has up until now played at a .626 clip will finish at a .355 pace? I understand that their past three weeks have not covered them in glory, but they somehow found a way to get to +40 games over .500 previously this season. Whether or not it was luck is another discussion, I suppose, but 11-20 would still be an extremely extended piece of underperforming especially with teams like the Royals (6), Seattle (3), fading Toronto (3), and Baltimore (4) still on the schedule. They would have to put up a month WORSE than the one they're currently putting up now, as they are 12-14 (by my count) through August.

 

If I were a Sox fan, I'd be rooting more for the Sox to go .667 through the final month rather than to count on the Tigers choking...

Edited August 30, 2006 by Zoogz

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(Texsox @ Aug 30, 2006 -> 08:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Before interleague play, wins and loses would equal out in each league. Now with interleague play, this year there will be more wins in the AL than loses and vice versa. I thought it was an interesting observation.

 

Put another way, there will be more wins than loses in the AL and more loses than wins in the NL. Subtracting wins from loses in the AL will result in a positive number and a negative number in the NL. With more wins spread around this year, it could take more to win the wild card. So it isn't nonsense.

 

If I did some quick math here, adding up wins and subtracting loses, the AL has 55 more wins than loses.

 

So just because the American League as a whole beat up on the National League means it will take more than 95 wins to win the wild card? That is nonsense. There is a lot more that goes into it than adding and subtracting. You hae to take percentages and what teams beat up on what teams and so on and so forth. That claim is just nonsense.

 

Now if you are saying for this specific year that it will take more wins to win the wild card in the American League than it will to win the wild card in the National League then I completely agree. That is definitely true.

 

 

QUOTE(Hangar18 @ Aug 30, 2006 -> 08:46 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Best case scenario, is that BOTH teams stumble, with someone majorly stumbling.

That takes alot of luck, but that also takes into account the SOX going on a major HOT streak, something they havnt done since June/early July

 

So you are saying it would be an optimisitc point of view to see this happening? OK, where do I sign up?

 

 

QUOTE(Zoogz @ Aug 30, 2006 -> 08:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is a bold prediction... you believe that a team that has up until now played at a .626 clip will finish at a .355 pace? I understand that their past three weeks have not covered them in glory, but they somehow found a way to get to +40 games over .500 previously this season. Whether or not it was luck is another discussion, I suppose, but 11-20 would still be an extremely extended piece of underperforming especially with teams like the Royals (6), Seattle (3), fading Toronto (3), and Baltimore (4) still on the schedule. They would have to put up a month WORSE than the one they're currently putting up now, as they are 12-14 (by my count) through August.

 

If I were a Sox fan, I'd be rooting more for the Sox to go .667 through the final month rather than to count on the Tigers choking...

 

Yes, that is truly what I believe. It is an extremely bold prediction. Just remember where you heard it first when it happens.

[cgaudin]

Because you are a pessimistic fan, which is ok. The Twins don't HAVE to do the stumbling. Detroit can stumble to both the Twins and the Sox - which is what I see happening and I have predicted happening. The West coast trip doesn't worry me at all.

 

The Sox have had their butts handed to them on those west coast trips for some time now. They will be playing the West Coast version of the Twins in the A's and a very good Angels team. I don't see them doing better than 2 wins in those 6 games. I will be delirious if they break even. Oh, and the day after a long trip back from the west they face off the Tigers. Yeah, dude...it looks great.....

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(cgaudin @ Aug 30, 2006 -> 11:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Sox have had their butts handed to them on those west coast trips for some time now. They will be playing the West Coast version of the Twins in the A's and a very good Angels team. I don't see them doing better than 2 wins in those 6 games. I will be delirious if they break even. Oh, and the day after a long trip back from the west they face off the Tigers. Yeah, dude...it looks great.....

 

So you are on the pessimistic bandwagon as well? So be it. I really don't care. I think they will do very well out west and come back home and take care of the Tigers as they usually do at home.