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From here on in, it's a 32 Game Season


mumu

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I predict we go up 7-0 on Tampa, I personally feel awesome seeing KC taking a two run lead into the ninth.......then Freddy gives back all the runs, we fail to score, our pen loses the game, and MN scores three in the 9th to make it a 1.5 game WC lead......thus causing me to spend the rest of the evening mulling over how f'd up this team is, wonderinng how the hell this happened, and spending all day tomorrow praying we don't go down 2.5 games.......

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QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Aug 29, 2006 -> 07:01 PM)
TB: 2-1

KC: 2-1

BOS: 1-2

CLE: 1-3

LAA: 1-2

OAK: 1-2

DET: 2-1

SEA: 3-1

CLE: 1-2

MIN: 1-2

 

15 - 17 record. Buehrle faces both Oakland and Boston if probables remain untouched. These can be considered automatic losses against teams who traditonally give us trouble. "Doom and gloom" nature of this post is merely based upon our subpar starting pitching and the strength of opponents faced down the stretch. Even Cleveland worries me. I don't believe they'll lay down for us. Last series in Minnesota, I'm willing to bet a sweep if Liriano returns to their rotation.

 

Now, how long until someone tells me to quit watching this season if I don't believe they'll make it to the playoffs?

 

I agree with you on that @Bos, CLE, @LAA, @Oak stretch. That is just a brutal schedule and I sense at least two horrific, demoralizing losses on the West Coast (i.e. games we just gift wrap for the other team). It would be a minor miracle if we could come out of that stretch with 6 or 7 wins.

 

By my count Buehrle is not scheduled to pitch against Boston (Garland, Vazquez, Count) which really doesn't make that much difference because Cleveland slaps him around pretty well, too.

 

I would guess we actually man up and sweep one of TB/KC and go 5-1 this week, and split with Cleveland next weekend. Otherwise, I agree with all your predictions. 17-15 for the rest of the season putting us at 93 wins at the end of the year.

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Right now it seems Boston will be down at least one of Manny/Ortiz and maybe not have both for our upcoming series vs them. If thats the case they are not a very scary team at all. With only 1 of them playing you can pitch around him and if neither they are a pretty horrific team.

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QUOTE(SoxFan101 @ Aug 30, 2006 -> 12:55 AM)
Right now it seems Boston will be down at least one of Manny/Ortiz and maybe not have both for our upcoming series vs them. If thats the case they are not a very scary team at all. With only 1 of them playing you can pitch around him and if neither they are a pretty horrific team.

 

Not to mention the fact that Boston has essentially thrown in the towel by announcing that Wells is on the trading block. That won't inspire their players to play great baseball.

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Its a 26 game season in my eyes, and to me, we need to go 20-6. So far, were 2-1.

Now its a 23 game season ............... we need to go 18-5. At some point, this team is going to have to start SWEEPING some teams the next couple of weeks. We have to be in front of the TWINKS for the WC by at least 3 games ..............by that last weekend

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QUOTE(Hangar18 @ Aug 29, 2006 -> 02:05 PM)
In our next 26 .................

The SOX must go 20-6. They control everything if they do this. If they fall short of this, they'll be Golfing on October 2nd

 

 

So .................... Knowing they must go 20-6, after the first 7 games, the SOX stumble to 3-4.

 

THE SOX NOW must go 17-2 the rest of the way .......

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QUOTE(Hangar18 @ Sep 5, 2006 -> 09:16 AM)
So .................... Knowing they must go 20-6, after the first 7 games, the SOX stumble to 3-4.

 

THE SOX NOW must go 17-2 the rest of the way .......

Nice to see you have a new number to keep track of...

 

No, they don't need to go 17-2 the rest of the way. They need to play .5 games better than MIN the rest of the way. So unless you think MIN is going 16-2 during that same span, which they won't, your math is wrong.

 

The Sox need to go .5 games better than MIN in the next 25 games. If they want to be in a strong position when they get to MIN (where they need just 1 win there), they need to be 2.5 games better over 22 games. That is not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. It's not good either, but its surely doable.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 5, 2006 -> 10:21 AM)
Nice to see you have a new number to keep track of...

 

No, they don't need to go 17-2 the rest of the way. They need to play .5 games better than MIN the rest of the way. So unless you think MIN is going 16-2 during that same span, which they won't, your math is wrong.

 

The Sox need to go .5 games better than MIN in the next 25 games. If they want to be in a strong position when they get to MIN (where they need just 1 win there), they need to be 2.5 games better over 22 games. That is not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. It's not good either, but its surely doable.

They can't go .5 games better than Minnesota. One of the 2 teams will not play one more game than the other. 162 games each. :P

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I posted this in another thread, but it seems more apros pos to be in here. The remaining schedules of the three contenders...

 

Detroit:

13 home - ave. win% of those teams - .462

11 away - ave. win% of those teams - .510

Last six games of the season...Tor, Tor, Tor, KC, KC, KC

 

Chicago:

11 home - ave. win% of those teams - .520

14 away - ave. win% of those teams - .540

Last six...@Clev, @Clev, @Clev, @Minn, @Minn, @Minn

 

Minnesota:

14 home - ave. win% of those teams - .534

12 away - ave. win% of those teams - .464

Last six...KC, KC, KC, ChiSox, ChiSox, ChiSox

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 5, 2006 -> 10:21 AM)
Nice to see you have a new number to keep track of...

 

No, they don't need to go 17-2 the rest of the way. They need to play .5 games better than MIN the rest of the way. So unless you think MIN is going 16-2 during that same span, which they won't, your math is wrong.

 

The Sox need to go .5 games better than MIN in the next 25 games. If they want to be in a strong position when they get to MIN (where they need just 1 win there), they need to be 2.5 games better over 22 games. That is not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. It's not good either, but its surely doable.

 

 

I actually have the numbers skewed towards overtaking Detroit. It is the same principle, because if we DO NOT HAVE better than a 3 game lead in the Wild Card by the time 9/29 gets here, the SOX are in big big big trouble. The Twinks will not lose in that dome the last weekend of September if their wild-card lives are depending on it

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QUOTE(Hangar18 @ Sep 5, 2006 -> 12:52 PM)
I actually have the numbers skewed towards overtaking Detroit. It is the same principle, because if we DO NOT HAVE better than a 3 game lead in the Wild Card by the time 9/29 gets here, the SOX are in big big big trouble. The Twinks will not lose in that dome the last weekend of September if their wild-card lives are depending on it

OK, well Detroit is another matter. We are 5.5 behind them. If we aren't within a couple games of them after our series against them, I think that is a done deal.

 

If we have at least a 2 game lead going into MIN, we'll be OK. We'd just need to win 1 game up there, which we can do.

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QUOTE(Hangar18 @ Sep 5, 2006 -> 09:16 AM)
So .................... Knowing they must go 20-6, after the first 7 games, the SOX stumble to 3-4.

 

THE SOX NOW must go 17-2 the rest of the way .......

 

 

 

Ok, so the bumbling stumbling SOX are now 3-5 since we've been keeping track.

The SOX now must go 17-1 the rest of the way ...........

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Results so far...

 

TB: 2-1

KC: 1-2

BOS: 1-2

CLE: 2-2

 

So, 13 games into the final 32 game stretch, we're 6-7. Typical, since we're below .500 since the All-Star break in July.

 

Only 6 teams and 19 games left to play, can the Sox edge out the Twins or the Tigers?

 

Remaining...

 

LAA (3 Away)

OAK (3 Away)

DET (3 Home)

SEA (4 Home)

CLE (3 Away)

MIN (3 Away)

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QUOTE(mu mu @ Sep 11, 2006 -> 03:25 PM)
Results so far...

 

TB: 2-1

KC: 1-2

BOS: 1-2

CLE: 2-2

 

So, 13 games into the final 32 game stretch, we're 6-7. Typical, since we're below .500 since the All-Star break in July.

 

Only 6 teams and 19 games left to play, can the Sox edge out the Twins or the Tigers?

 

Remaining...

 

LAA (3 Away)

OAK (3 Away)

DET (3 Home)

SEA (4 Home)

CLE (3 Away)

MIN (3 Away)

 

Okay well they gave away any chance for breathing room. NOW THEY MUST win every series to make the playoffs. The Twins will win this division, so that 3 game series vs Detroit is the most important series out of this final stretch IMO.

THEY MUST WIN:

2 of 3 @ LAA

2 of 3 @ OAK

2 of 3 vs DET

3 of 4 vs SEA

2 of 3 @ CLE

2 of 3 @ MIN

 

If they can somehow do this!?!? God for bid play over .500 baseball the rest of the way!! We will end up 95-67 and this SHOULD be good enough to pass Detroit for that Wild Card spot.

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