Voters painting state blue

[spiderman]

Link to Chicago Tribune Article

 

The percentage of Illinois voters who call themselves Democrats is at its highest pre-election level in more than a decade, posing a problem for Republicans trying to win the governor's mansion and key congressional seats, a Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

 

The poll found 43 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats while a little more than a quarter of the voters identified themselves as Republicans. The 17 percentage point difference ranks among the most polarized partisan spreads in more than 16 years of Tribune surveys taken prior to an election day.

 

Chris Mooney, professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield, said the poll findings reflected recent dissatisfaction with President Bush's administration and anti-war sentiment on top of the state's longer-term demographic trend toward the Democrats.

 

"The population has become more and more urban, it's become more and more non-white," Mooney said. "This [national] short-term bump toward Democrats is exacerbating the long-term trend."

 

The most recent Tribune poll found that even in longtime Republican-leaning regions, the GOP no longer might have the upper hand. In the collar counties, 31 percent of voters aligned themselves with Republicans while 29 percent identified with Democrats. Outside the Chicago metropolitan region, voters split equally at 36 percent between Democrats and Republicans.

 

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You'd think that with nobody really like Blago, you might see some life from the GOP ?? Guess not...

[jasonxctf]

this state is going to be "blue" for a long, long time. Thanks George.

[Texsox]

How they self report party alegiance and how they vote is usually different. I'll bet the hardcore, straight tickets voting, party faithful hasn't changed much. A statewide Dem candidate will still have to gobble up huge numbers in Chicago, split the suburbs close to even, and hold on for his dear life and pray for a downstate tornado.

[NorthSideSox72]

How they self report party alegiance and how they vote is usually different. I'll bet the hardcore, straight tickets voting, party faithful hasn't changed much. A statewide Dem candidate will still have to gobble up huge numbers in Chicago, split the suburbs close to even, and hold on for his dear life and pray for a downstate tornado.

Given that the Chicago metro makes up fully two thirds of Illinois' population... a Dem doesn't have to do a whole lot downstate for national or statewide office. Sort of unfortunate really, given the difference in political philosophies. Downstate IL might be better served politically if it were annexed by Indiana.

[Texsox]

Not quite. Cook County is 5,000,000 and Illinois is over 12,000,000. Chicago is about 3,000,000. So actually Chicago is close to 25% than 66%.

[NorthSideSox72]

Not quite. Cook County is 5,000,000 and Illinois is over 12,000,000. Chicago is about 3,000,000. So actually Chicago is close to 25% than 66%.

Cook County is one of 6 counties that make up the Chicago area. The metro is between 8 and 9 million, depending on what source you look at. That is 66%-75%.

[Texsox]

Cook County is one of 6 counties that make up the Chicago area. The metro is between 8 and 9 million, depending on what source you look at. That is 66%-75%.

 

But the suburbs are Republican strongholds. Lake County, for example didn't relect a Dem during the 20th Century. Will, Kane, etc? All GOP land.

[Soxy]

But the suburbs are Republican strongholds. Lake County, for example didn't relect a Dem during the 20th Century. Will, Kane, etc? All GOP land.

Don't forget Kendall! Home of J. Dennis Hastert! When I voted there, seriously, may 25% of the time there was a democrat challenger.

[NorthSideSox72]

But the suburbs are Republican strongholds. Lake County, for example didn't relect a Dem during the 20th Century. Will, Kane, etc? All GOP land.

Not all. And that is changing. In fact, I suspect that is where the Dems are making their biggest gains. Many suburbs are seeing big increases in ethnic minorities, and younger former city dwellers. That pushes them more towards the Dems.

[jasonxctf]

according to wikipedia...

 

As of 2005, Illinois has an estimated population of 12,763,371, which is an increase of 51,355, or 0.4%, from the prior year and an increase of 343,724, or 2.8%, since the year 2000. This includes a natural increase since the last census of 406,425 people (that is 959,470 births minus 553,045 deaths) and a decrease due to net migration of 63,011 people out of the state. Immigration from outside the United States resulted in a net increase of 328,020 people, and migration within the country produced a net loss of 391,031 people. As of 2004 there were 1,682,900 foreign-born (13.3%).[6]

 

At the northern edge of the state on Lake Michigan lies Chicago, the nation's third largest city. In 2000, 23.3% of the population lived in the city of Chicago, 43.3% in Cook County and 65.6% in Illinois's part of Chicagoland, the leading industrial and transportation center in the region, which includes Will, DuPage, Kane, and Lake Counties as well as Cook County. The rest of the population lives in the smaller cities and in the rural areas that dot the state's plains.

 

 

So bascially, if a candidate gets 65% in cook county and carries the Rockford, Rock Island/Moline and Peoria areas, he or she is a shoe-in.

[jasonxctf]

yeah dont forget that nationally the dems picked up a traditional stronghold seat with melissa bean and may get another with tammy duckworth.