Think We Should Be done with BMac

[joeynach]

I have been saying it for almost 2 months or more now this guy doesnt have the stuff to pitch in the big leagues at least not yet. His command and stuff just isn't good enough. He has a plus curve but has much trouble locating it, his fastball is 89-90 and very flat, and his change is minus as he devolded it last year and its always up in the zone. I have seen enough of him and would like to see him moved or demoted. Maybe its just me but I have seen enough and seems to be purely physical. I say goodbye BMac dont let the door to AAA hit you on the way out, your not even close to being a reliable major league pitcher.

 

P.S. This situation also describes to my theory that decent rookie pitchers can look like Cy young before they get around the league for some time. No scouting reports and hitters haven't seen them before gives them an advantage but over a season they catch up. Hence why we went from 2.00 era to 5.00 over a year period.

[Jordan4life_2007]

No disrespect. But this thread blows.

[Rowand44]

No. Brandon is a special talent(god I've said this a lot). He's going to be one of our best starting pitchers next year, book it. His changeup is his best pitch when it's on and considering he's been used sparingly out of the bullpen and well he's never been a reliever before, he seems to have a hard time finding that pitch. You don't give up on a pitcher with Brandon's upside after one bad year pitching in a role he's never pitched in before. Like I said in a different thread, I wish the Twins would have done that with Santana.

[3 BeWareTheNewSox 5]

As I said in the other thread, I am giving him a free pass, he showed me something 2 years ago starting, and you can't compare that role to a bullpen role. Prep, mindset, everything is different, the problem though is he will probably not be used to a full year of starting and will probably break down

[santo=dorf]

I wouldn't go that far, but I'm all for moving him if he nets us a huge upgrade at short or LF.

[Kalapse]

Well McCarthy did face the Rangers, Tigers and Twins twice each last season.

 

5/27 @ TEX: 5 IP, 6 H, 6 ER

8/30 @ TEX: 7.6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER

 

6/29 @ DET: 6.3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER

9/27 @ DET: 6.3 IP, 8 H, 3 ER

 

9/17 @ MIN: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER

9/22 V MIN: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER

 

I'm not really sure how that last theory really works.

[SoxHawk1980]

I don't think there is good reason for being confident about Brandon in the rotation next year. His stuff is good, but it isn't great. And I don't think you can gloss over the fact that he's pitched poorly this season. It isn't enough to say "he's never been a reliever before." So what? It frequently happens that good starting pitching prospects come up to the majors and pitch out of the bullpen for a while. Those who later become good starters usually do well out of the bullpen. Hell, it is alwasy easier to pitch out of the bullpen than as a starter. Usually you only go one time through the lineup and you don't pitch long enough to tire during the game. So why should I be confident that his poor 2006 season means nothing? It seems like people are working hard to come up with a reason to think McCarthy will be a good starter next year. I hope it is more than fan optimism.

Edited September 19, 2006 by SoxHawk1980

[DBAHO]

So the 1.69 ERA he put up Post ASB last season was a fluke?

[SoxHawk1980]

So the 1.69 ERA he put up Post ASB last season was a fluke?

No, it wasn't a fluke. Nor is it all one should consider when one evaluates him. In addition to those 42.2 innings in his career, I'd also consider his 24.1 innings before the ASB (8.14 ERA) and his 76.1 innings this year (4.95 ERA). Are the bad 100.2 innings just a fluke?

[SinkingShip06]

So the 1.69 ERA he put up Post ASB last season was a fluke?

 

Yes. just like the rest of our young "stud" pitches have done in the past 10 years.

[SoxHawk1980]

Yes. just like the rest of our young "stud" pitches have done in the past 10 years.

Dan Wright had a good 42-inning stretch too once...

[Jordan4life_2007]

Dan Wright had a good 42-inning stretch too once...

 

He did? Do tell.

[Kalapse]

He did? Do tell.

I'm actually looking through his game logs from '01 and '02 right now and I'm having a hard time finding these 42 innings of dominance.

[CWSGuy406]

No, it wasn't a fluke. Nor is it all one should consider when one evaluates him. In addition to those 42.2 innings in his career, I'd also consider his 24.1 innings before the ASB (8.14 ERA) and his 76.1 innings this year (4.95 ERA). Are the bad 100.2 innings just a fluke?

 

Okay, so if we take everything McCarthy has done in his MLB career, we get an ERA right around 4.60. Right around league average.

 

Then we take his minor league career (unless you're of the silly ilk that don't believe in those evil minor league numbers), and see that he struck out 10.27 batters per nine while only walking 1.64 per nine.

 

Put it all together, and I think we're looking at a pretty good #3 starter, a guy who can give us a 4.00-4.30 ERA and 200 innings. As for 2007...? I think he'll be a 4.50-4.75 pitcher, right around league average, having stretches where he is good, and other stretches where he gets hit hard because he loses his 'changeup' feel for a bit.

 

And I'd gladly take a 4.60 ERA and 180 IP from Brandon next year, thank you very much.

 

Is he Verlander? Probably not. But you're also looking at one kid who was taken top five, and another who lasted until the 17th (?) round or therabouts.

[3 BeWareTheNewSox 5]

I don't think there is good reason for being confident about Brandon in the rotation next year. His stuff is good, but it isn't great. And I don't think you can gloss over the fact that he's pitched poorly this season. It isn't enough to say "he's never been a reliever before." So what? It frequently happens that good starting pitching prospects come up to the majors and pitch out of the bullpen for a while. Those who later become good starters usually do well out of the bullpen. Hell, it is alwasy easier to pitch out of the bullpen than as a starter. Usually you only go one time through the lineup and you don't pitch long enough to tire during the game. So why should I be confident that his poor 2006 season means nothing? It seems like people are working hard to come up with a reason to think McCarthy will be a good starter next year. I hope it is more than fan optimism.

 

Sorry, still can't compare it to me, even if other pitchers did it. The last time I remember the Sox trying to progress a starter through the pen was Cotts. Was tops in the minor leagues, came up, then started in the wrong situations, got lit up, and there goes that starting career. Buehrle was the last successful one I can remember and no one saw him coming. I like how we did it with Garland, throw him to the lions, keep him out there, didn't look like he'd be anything special, and BAM, back to back stellar seasons. Just so different for me to compare. More likely to inherit runners, might be more comfortable pitching out of the wind up, just have a different strategy if you know your max is probably 2 innings and you can't allow anything. Start to press and then throw fat ones up there. If you start and know hits or a run won't hurt, just a different mindset.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I'm actually looking through his game logs from '01 and '02 right now and I'm having a hard time finding these 42 innings of dominance.

 

LOL. Because they don't exist. I remember him having a dominant start every now and then. But no way he did what Brandon did at the end of last year. Like you've said many times, he was EASILY our second best starter down the stretch.

[Baines3]

I doubt very much if Bardon will be going any place this off season.

[3 BeWareTheNewSox 5]

All I remember from Wright is one game where he shutout Texas. It was a gem, like a CG 2 hitter. I never regarded him to be a stud though

[SoxHawk1980]

He did? Do tell.

Well, in his last 7 starts of 2002, Danny had a stretch of 49.2 innings with and ERA of 3.08. The point is that prospects can have good stretches, but that does not necessarily mean a great career is in the offing.

[SoxHawk1980]

Put it all together, and I think we're looking at a pretty good #3 starter, a guy who can give us a 4.00-4.30 ERA and 200 innings. As for 2007...? I think he'll be a 4.50-4.75 pitcher, right around league average, having stretches where he is good, and other stretches where he gets hit hard because he loses his 'changeup' feel for a bit.

 

And I'd gladly take a 4.60 ERA and 180 IP from Brandon next year, thank you very much.

Sounds like your prediction sounds about right to me. Unfortunately, that isn't much of an upgrade for our rotation. Hardly any at all.

[Kalapse]

All I remember from Wright is one game where he shutout Texas. It was a gem, like a CG 2 hitter. I never regarded him to be a stud though

Quite the dominant performance.

 

05/16/2002: VS TEX: 9 IP, 5H, 0ER, 1BB, 5K

 

Previous start: 05/10/2002: @ ANA: 2.6 IP, 8H, 8ER, 1BB, 1K

2 Starts later: 05/27/2002: VS NYY: 4.3 IP, 8H, 8ER, 3BB, 6K

 

God I miss Dan Wright.

 

Sounds like your prediction sounds about right to me. Unfortunately, that isn't much of an upgrade for our rotation. Hardly any at all.

Actually it's about a $10M upgrade.

[Heads22]

There was a direct correlation between Dan Wright's performance and his neckbeard.

[SoxHawk1980]

Actually it's about a $10M upgrade.

That's great if the $10M is used to bring in a starting pitcher that is actually good. This rotation needs improvement desperately.

[Kalapse]

Well, in his last 7 starts of 2002, Danny had a stretch of 49.2 innings with and ERA of 3.08. The point is that prospects can have good stretches, but that does not necessarily mean a great career is in the offing.

That was also 221 1/3 IP into his big league career pitching in games that meant absolutely nothing, with no pressure at all, I mean was he really even a prospect at that point? Seems like a bad pitcher going out and pitching well in low pressure situations against some good and some very bad teams.

[SoxHawk1980]

That was also 221 1/3 IP into his big league career pitching in games that meant absolutely nothing, with no pressure at all, I mean was he really even a prospect at that point? Seems like a bad pitcher going out and pitching well in low pressure situations against some good and some very bad teams.

If I remember correctly, that was his first full season in the majors. Feel free to spin Wright and McCarthy's numbers any way you want, but I don't see greatness in McCarthy's future after this crap season. I think CWSGuy406's prediction for 2007 is pretty close and that would be anything but impressive. And, BTW, it is worse than what this team needs. I'm not saying trade the guy, but this rotation needs an uprgrade and McCarthy isn't it.