Think We Should Be done with BMac

[Heads22]

You think Brandon will actually be worse than Freddy?

[ZoomSlowik]

If I remember correctly, that was his first full season in the majors. Feel free to spin Wright and McCarthy's numbers any way you want, but I don't see greatness in McCarthy's future after this crap season. I think CWSGuy406's prediction for 2007 is pretty close and that would be anything but impressive. And, BTW, it is worse than what this team needs. I'm not saying trade the guy, but this rotation needs an uprgrade and McCarthy isn't it.

 

Last time I checked, 3 of our 5 starters have an ERA of 4.70 or higher this year. I would say that's an upgrade, and at a much lower price. That was a fairly conservative projection for B-Mac too. I have no doubt that he can out-pitch Freddy next year, which is all I really care about.

 

Plus, if you're going to make judgements based off one season, you'd have dismissed an awful lot of great pitchers in the past. Very few pitchers dominate from their first year in the majors, and many of them end up flaming out pre-maturely. I don't know how you can entirely dismiss McCarthy before he even has one season as a starter under his belt.

[The Ginger Kid]

Brandon is a special talent(god I've said this a lot). He's going to be one of our best starting pitchers next year, book it.

this is such bulls***

[SoxHawk1980]

You think Brandon will actually be worse than Freddy?

Do I think Brandon will do worse than a 4.82 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP? He might, but I think he'd do a little better. But not much better. I, for one, am not going to pretend this season never happened and remember only the good starts of 2005.

 

Last time I checked, 3 of our 5 starters have an ERA of 4.70 or higher this year. I would say that's an upgrade, and at a much lower price. That was a fairly conservative projection for B-Mac too.

A minimal upgrade at best, and I don't think that projection for BMac is conservative at all.

Plus, if you're going to make judgements based off one season, you'd have dismissed an awful lot of great pitchers in the past. Very few pitchers dominate from their first year in the majors, and many of them end up flaming out pre-maturely. I don't know how you can entirely dismiss McCarthy before he even has one season as a starter under his belt.

I'm not judging BMac on one season (or just 42 innings). I'm looking at his entire major league career, plus his minor league performance, plus what I see with my own two eyes. I see a good prospect but certainly one who is not yet ready to be a good major league starter. I don't want to trade him. But I also don't think we should expect him to be anything more than minimal upgrade over Garcia (at best).

[jackie hayes]

Brandon pitched badly down the stretch this year, no doubt.

 

But the guy owns a great history for strikeouts and control. His major league k/bb numbers are really pretty good, considering his experience. I worry that seeing Liriano, Verlander, and Weaver debut in one year has spoiled everyone's appetite. (Not to mention Johnson, Sanchez, Cain, Hamels, Hill, Olsen...)

 

Great post, Keith. The numbers you put up for 2007, are those just guesses, or projections? Just cuz I'd guess the better end of that range to be the middle, off the top of my head.

[CWSGuy406]

Great post, Keith. The numbers you put up for 2007, are those just guesses, or projections? Just cuz I'd guess the better end of that range to be the middle, off the top of my head.

 

Consider it a very conservative, slightly pessimistic projection. What did I say again -- 180 IP, 4.60 ERA? And someone is actually complaining that that's not good enough, from a first full-time year starter?

 

I'm not as optimistic as R44 -- I can't see Brandon putting up a sub-4 ERA. If I were to range it like PECOTA's Percentile thingy, I'd go...

 

 

90th - 3.80 ERA, 200 IP

 

75th - 4.15 ERA, 190 IP

 

50th - 4.50 ERA, 180 IP

 

25th - 4.80, 175 IP

 

10th - 5.15, 170 IP

[Rowand44]

Consider it a very conservative, slightly pessimistic projection. What did I say again -- 180 IP, 4.60 ERA? And someone is actually complaining that that's not good enough, from a first full-time year starter?

 

I'm not as optimistic as R44 -- I can't see Brandon putting up a sub-4 ERA. If I were to range it like PECOTA's Percentile thingy, I'd go...

90th - 3.80 ERA, 200 IP

 

75th - 4.15 ERA, 190 IP

 

50th - 4.50 ERA, 180 IP

 

25th - 4.80, 175 IP

 

10th - 5.15, 170 IP

I'm usually one who projects a first year starter to have some issues. But like I've said over and over again I really believe Brandon is a special talent and I really believe he'll put up a sub 4 era next year.

Edited September 19, 2006 by Rowand44

[SoxHawk1980]

Consider it a very conservative, slightly pessimistic projection. What did I say again -- 180 IP, 4.60 ERA? And someone is actually complaining that that's not good enough, from a first full-time year starter?

I think that is ok for a first complete season as a starter, but I'm more interested in the team than in BMac's development. My problem is that this represents a very minor improvement for our rotation when that rotation needs much more improvement than that. Also, if 4.60 is the over/under, I'll bet the over.

[jackie hayes]

Consider it a very conservative, slightly pessimistic projection. What did I say again -- 180 IP, 4.60 ERA? And someone is actually complaining that that's not good enough, from a first full-time year starter?

 

I'm not as optimistic as R44 -- I can't see Brandon putting up a sub-4 ERA. If I were to range it like PECOTA's Percentile thingy, I'd go...

90th - 3.80 ERA, 200 IP

 

75th - 4.15 ERA, 190 IP

 

50th - 4.50 ERA, 180 IP

 

25th - 4.80, 175 IP

 

10th - 5.15, 170 IP

 

As for 2007...? I think he'll be a 4.50-4.75 pitcher, right around league average, having stretches where he is good, and other stretches where he gets hit hard because he loses his 'changeup' feel for a bit.

 

Agree with the percentiles. I just thought that 4.50 as a floor was too pessimistic.

 

Good young pitchers struggle. Just look at where Cain and Hamels were after 75 innings pitched. He has very good stuff, has shown great control in the minors, good control in the majors. There's no way he's going anywhere, thank Kenny.

[greg775]

It all goes back to the cash. Guys like Brandon are vital to an organization to survive and be competitive at a high level for a long amount of time. As Keith said, Brandon should not have too much of a problem posting a little better than league average numbers, at a very cheap price. Better yet, Mac should be able to post numbers better than Garcia this season, at a 1/10th of a price. You need a guy like that, a few guys, if you can't have a payroll of 130 Million+.

 

Finally a post about Brandon I can agree with. Tony comes through.

I can buy this; I can't buy the fanatics who think Brandon is a phenom who was "misused"

by Ozzie and that's the only reason he sucked.

[DBAHO]

I'd expect Brandon to put up an ERA in the low 4's and pick up about 13-15 wins for us next season.

 

And yeah you may call that optimistic, but the guy showed what he can do as a starter. I would basically chuck out his ERA when he 1st started because he obviously wasn't ready and he had major problems giving up the longball. When he came back as a starter in the 2nd half of the season that wasn't a problem for him anymore.

[BobDylan]

As I said in the other thread, I am giving him a free pass, he showed me something 2 years ago starting, and you can't compare that role to a bullpen role. Prep, mindset, everything is different, the problem though is he will probably not be used to a full year of starting and will probably break down

 

That's a terrible misconception. Preperation is only slightly different. The mindset isn't different at all. Pitching is pitching, nothing else...you either know how to do it or you don't. Different players have different success because they change their mind-set from pen to the rotation or vice versa. If you recall the game Black Jack took the booth, he talked about this.

[SinkingShip06]

Some guys can come out of the pen. Some guys can't. Some guys suck as starters and thrive as middle men. Some can't do it. I still say trade his ass before we can't get anything back

[DBAHO]

Some guys can come out of the pen. Some guys can't. Some guys suck as starters and thrive as middle men. Some can't do it. I still say trade his ass before we can't get anything back

And yet Brandon has thrived as a starter before. Why wouldn't you give him that oppurtunity to let him pitch where he is most comfortable again, especially for such a low price, which is becoming extremely important in the makeup of our team?

[RockRaines]

Bottom line in 2007 BMAC>Freddy.

 

And the salary flexibility will allow us to find another piece that could help us make a run.

[The Ginger Kid]

I wish we would've traded BMac for Tejada when we had the chance.

[LVSoxFan]

My take on McCarthy is he's a terrible reliever. He's a starter, whom we're trying to use in the bullpen. And that just doesn't work for him.

 

I'm more than willing to give him next year as a STARTER but no more of this bullpen experiment.

 

Also, if he's so damn valuable that we can't trade him, what's the point of banishing him to the bullpen for middle relief?

 

Start him or trade him, that's what I say.

[RockRaines]

I wish we would've traded BMac for Tejada when we had the chance.

Yes, im sure that would have helped the fact that we have given up almost as many runs as Cle's s***ty pitching staff.

[southsider2k5]

I wish we would've traded BMac for Tejada when we had the chance.

 

there is a great irony between your post and your sig

[Kalapse]

I wish we would've traded BMac for Tejada when we had the chance.

Miguel Tejada will never play for the Chicago White Sox it was never even a possibility in the past. Miguel Tejada is one thing KW and Ozzie actually agree upon and they want him nowhere near this or any other team they're running.

[Balta1701]

So, I was watching BMac pitch last night both in the 8th and in the 9th innings, and think I saw a few noteworthy things.

 

First and foremost, BMac destroyed people in the 8th inning with his changeup. It was working like dynamite, and they went 123.

 

In the 9th inning, his changeup wasn't nearly as sharp. But I don't think that was totally what killed him in the 9th.

 

I think what killed him in the 9th was that something has happened to his curve ball. Whether or not the curve was the pitch people were hitting isn't the point, the more pitches he has to choose from that are working the harder it is for people to hit him.

 

Last year, BMac was tossing up there a big sweeping curve ball...the kind that starts off aiming at a right handed batter and breaks hard to wind up on the outside corner. It was Zito-like, except from the other side. This year, BMac's curve ball is much, much tighter. It starts off in the zone instead of aiming at the batter, has some break to it, but not nearly as much. It looks a lot like Javier Vazquez's current curve ball, and it winds up hanging a lot.

 

I'm not sure what did this, if Cooper made some change, if it's just not being able to pitch enough, or if he's still hurting from whatever that was that sidelined him for 2 weeks back in August. But that just isnt' the same pitch he was throwing at any point last season.

[WHITESOXRANDY]

I think that next year in the Sox rotation, he would pitch about as well as Buehrle, Vazquez or Garcia - and for about $ 10 mil. less.

[Ishmookie]

I feel that Bmac was great until tghis whole long reliever thing happened. He should've started in the rotation this year. Now mentally he's extremely screwed up. We ruined a tremendously talented pitcher by sticking him in the bullpen to mop up.

[illinilaw08]

I have three things to say about this... first, as has been pointed out often in this thread, BMac is a much cheaper option than any of the other starters leaving the Sox free to spend that money elsewhere.

 

Second, BMac pitched incredibly well down the stretch last year with tons of pressure on him. This wasn't Kip Wells pitching well at the end of a second place season, it was a young pitcher holding down a team during a pennant race.

 

Finally, I think many people on this board expect young players to lock in immediately and be stars right off the bat. It is a major transition from AAA to the majors and very few prospects make that transition seamlessly. Thats why I am less harsh on BA this season as oppossed to Uribe or Pods, and that's why I am willing to look past BMac's bump in the road this season. Sorry about that, I'll get off my soapbox now.

[Steve9347]

Here's my take.

 

Brandon McCarthy will be decent... like 4.20 ERA decent.

 

He will not be God.

 

He will not be dogturds.

 

He will be decent.