Will our starting pitchers bounce back next year?

[VAfan]

I believe the key to this coming offseason is deciding what to do with our starting pitchers.

 

Here is their 2006 performance.

 

Jose Contreras 29 29 13 8 0 16 0 194.1 187 88 95 19 55 132 6.11 103.6 1.25 4.08

Jon Garland 31 30 17 6 0 16 0 197.2 229 96 97 25 38 103 4.69 104.2 1.35 4.37

Freddy Garcia 31 31 15 9 0 17 0 202.1 215 104 111 31 47 129 5.74 101.2 1.29 4.63

Javier Vazquez 30 29 11 9 0 13 0 183.2 185 96 101 20 53 153 7.50 101.9 1.30 4.70

Mark Buehrle 31 31 12 13 0 16 0 199.1 238 106 117 34 45 96 4.33 96.8 1.42 4.79

Brandon McCarthy 51 1 3 7 0 0 11 76.1 71 42 42 15 29 57 6.72 83.0 1.31 4.95

 

 

While here is their 2005 performance.

 

Chicago White Sox Team Pitching Statistics

NAME G GS W L Sv QS Hld IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHIP ERA

Mark Buehrle 33 33 16 8 0 20 0 236.2 240 82 99 20 40 149 5.67 105.4 1.18 3.12

Jon Garland 32 32 18 10 0 22 0 221.0 212 86 93 26 47 115 4.68 103.6 1.17 3.50

Jose Contreras 32 32 15 7 0 18 0 204.2 177 82 91 23 75 154 6.77 99.1 1.23 3.61

Freddy Garcia 33 33 14 8 0 20 0 228.0 225 98 102 26 60 146 5.76 103.0 1.25 3.87

Brandon McCarthy 12 10 3 2 0 5 0 67.0 62 30 30 13 17 48 6.45 94.7 1.18 4.03

 

 

Given the fact that every one of these starters was significantly better in 2005, and those performances are closer to their historical norms than their 2006 totals, if I were Kenny Williams, I think I would go to bat with these guys for another season -- returning all of them to a starting role in 2007.

 

I also think I would not be too quick to insert Brandon McCarthy into the starting rotation. Notice that he was the worst of the 6 pitchers BOTH YEARS. This doesn't suggest he would be an improvement over any of our starting five in 2007.

 

I think another reason to come back with what we have is that it is nearly impossible to rank our 5 starters with any clarity. Buehrle went from best ERA in 2005, to second worst in 2006, but he's probably been the most consistent guy up until this season. Freddie Garcia seemed to have nothing for long stretches this season, but has pitched back-to-back gems, and had a 1-0 shutout in June that was the last game we won when scoring less than 4 runs. Jose Contreras blew up after his winning streak ended, but before that he won how many games in a row? He was also the stud that led us to a World Championship. Jon Garland went from #5 starter last season to our most consistent starter this year, and he's the youngest guy on the staff. Javier Vazquez blew up in the 6th inning of nearly every start, but through 5 innings, had an ERA in the low 2's and could have won 18 games easily if Ozzie had used him right and we'd had a bullpen we could rely on. Which of these 5 guys do you trade?? And, given how they pitched this season, would trading any of them bring equal value??

 

I may change my mind about this, but right now, I would be inclined to keep these guys for another run. All of them ought to be pissed watching the other teams in the playoffs knowing that we would have a better team than any of them if they had performed.

 

Instead of "fixing" this area of the team, I'd concentrate on:

 

1. Getting a new lead off hitter and LF

2. Making adjustments so we can hit lefties as well as righties

3. Strengthening the bullpen

 

We have a better team than the Tigers or Twins or A's or Yankees if our starters perform at career norms instead of all having off years. It would be unconventional for Kenny Williams not to make a lot of moves, but right now I think that might be the right choice.

[Jordan4life_2007]

One has to go. There's no way in hell we can keep Brandon in the 'pen for another year.

[LVSoxFan]

Keep the five alive.

 

Trade McCarthy for a freakin' leadoff, high-percentage batting, non-slugger man.

 

Think: Ichiro-like.

[Balta1701]

I think that the odds say Mark and Jon will bounce back next year. Javy? I don't know...this is basically where he's been for the last several years. Freddy? All depends on his fastball. Jose? I don't know how healthy he is.

 

The odds say that they all won't have terrible seasons again next year...but the odds also say that you won't get dominant seasons from all 5 either.

[SoxFanForever]

Keep the five alive.

 

Trade McCarthy for a freakin' leadoff, high-percentage batting, non-slugger man.

 

Think: Ichiro-like.

How many "Ichiro-like" players are laying around on other teams just waiting to be traded?

 

Hint: not many

[SinkingShip06]

How many "Ichiro-like" players are laying around on other teams just waiting to be traded?

 

Hint: not many

 

BMAC for Carl Crawford. i'd even toss fields in there

[LVSoxFan]

How many "Ichiro-like" players are laying around on other teams just waiting to be traded?

 

Hint: not many

 

 

WELL THANKS, Cap'n Obvious! I meant with Ichiro-like sensibilities. Maybe it's one of our homegrown, I don't know. But we need to get back to what got us there in 2005. Enough of this feast or famine HR derby crap.

 

And I'm willing to give it another year with the not-so-fantastic five. I think some of them are embarassed and will want to kick ass next year. I'll go with that.

 

Let's not forget how many fine starting performances were wasted 2nd half because the offense was AWOL. Yes, even Javy got burned a few times.

[Dick Allen]

I would trade at least 2 of these guys. So many teams seem willing to pay huge for pitching, KW should take advantage of having guys with good track records who really have questionable futures. Sign a fifth starter-type to be the fifth starter. The Sox have budget problems right now. I read where they have $99 million committed to 12 players. Getting a couple of these guys off your books while having another team pay a price equivalent to their potential value is the way to go IMO.

[Felix]

I'm thinking that a few of them will rebound, including Vazquez, but we really need to trade one of them and get BMac into the rotation. Whether it's Freddy (who I've always liked), Vazquez, or even Contreras (who could probably net us a nice return), a deal has to be made. They are making too much money, and the Sox will have to cut payroll somewhere, and with BMac's prescene, starting pitching is the obvious place to do it.

[SinkingShip06]

I'm thinking that a few of them will rebound, including Vazquez, but we really need to trade one of them and get BMac into the rotation. Whether it's Freddy (who I've always liked), Vazquez, or even Contreras (who could probably net us a nice return), a deal has to be made. They are making too much money, and the Sox will have to cut payroll somewhere, and with BMac's prescene, starting pitching is the obvious place to do it.

 

Contreras to the Mets for Milledge??

[AirScott]

Contreras to the Mets for Milledge??

that isn't far-fetched...no, not at all.

[Flash Tizzle]

If Williams leaves this rotation as it currently stands, he'll have learned NOTHING from his Northside counterpart.

 

Whereas injuries are a key difference between the rotations (for Cubs, Prior/Wood; us, consistently healthy), the basic idea of hoping that our current staters somehow rebound is, quite frankly, lazy general managing.

 

You get rid of an existing starter for McCarthy. This talk of trading him for a leadoff hitter is honestly absurd. Young pitching with McCarthy's potential -- which has actually been proven, opposed to other prospects -- exceeds that of a leadoff hitter.

 

My idea of McCarthy's value is high because I've always favored pitchers over positional players. A lineup has 9 players. 9 players can absorb deficiencies of others. Considering Podsednik's mediocre production, and the likelihood our offense overall will produce similar numbers, it shouldn't be difficult to replace him. Even easier if Guillen is transfixed on a speedy slap hitter with low OBP.

Edited September 22, 2006 by Flash Tizzle

[Felix]

If Williams leaves this rotation as it currently stands, he'll have learned NOTHING from his Northside counterpart.

 

Whereas injuries are a key difference between the rotations (for Cubs, Prior/Wood; us, consistently healthy), the basic idea of hoping that our current staters somehow rebound is, quite frankly, lazy general managing.

 

You get rid of an existing starter for McCarthy. This talk of trading him for a leadoff hitter is honestly absurd. Young pitching with McCarthy's potential -- which has actually been proven, opposed to other prospects -- exceeds that of a leadoff hitter.

 

My idea of McCarthy's value is high because I've always been impartial to pitchers over positional players. A lineup has 9 players. 9 players can absorb difficiencies of others. Considering Podsednik's mediocre production, and the likelihood our offense overall will produce similar numbers, it shouldn't be difficult to replace him. Even easier if Guillen is transfixed on a speedy slap hitter with low OBP.

What are you talking about? McCarthy is another sucky White Sox pitching prospect who doesn't throw 100 MPH.

[Flash Tizzle]

What are you talking about? McCarthy is another sucky White Sox pitching prospect who doesn't throw 100 MPH.

What separates him from the army of soft tossing prospects we've produced in the past is his command (K/BB) and success in the minors, as well as two legitimate pitches to offset a 90mph fastball.

 

Without the changeup working, he is another sucky White Sox pitching prospect. His bullpen stinct this year suggests as much.

Edited September 22, 2006 by Flash Tizzle

[Balta1701]

What separates him from the army of soft tossing prospects we've produced in the past is his command (K/BB) and success in the minors, as well as two legitimate pitches to offset a 90mph fastball.

 

Without the changeup working, he is another sucky White Sox pitching prospect. His bullpen stinct this year suggests as much.

I'm still not sure what entirely to make of McCarthy this year. Last year, if the changeup wasn't working, yeah he was toast. Ditto that in the bullpen this year. But this year in the bullpen, his curve ball also doesn't look nearly as sharp. It doesn't have the big, start out in the right handed batters box and end up on the outside corner bend that we saw last year...it looks more like the janging javy curve ball we sometimes see. And even more than that, BMac was supposedly trying to add in a 2 seamer, and given how few innings he's thrown this year, I'm really not certain if we've seen it much. He might be able to pitch around having a few pitches not working when next year rolls around, if he works the offseason right.

 

Of course, there's also the possibility that Ozzie has permanently screwed him up this season, and he won't be anything mroe than a 7th starter for us, and a 4th-5th starter when we trade him.

[SABR Sox]

We need at least one pitcher that can strike people out.

 

Our pitchers peripherals have never been the absolute best.

 

As dumb as it sounds, they either overachieve of they don't.

Edited September 22, 2006 by SABR Sox

[Capn12]

The thing to me here is, in the last week..week and a half, when we REALLY had to win games against Detroit, Boston, etc to have any shot at the playoffs, it HASN'T been the starting pitching thats let us down(besides Buehrle who is a whole other issue). The hitting has been abysmal lately, save one 7-0 game against Detroit. Garland is Garland, and I'm quite impressed with his ability to still win 17 games the way he started this year. Freddy has looked pretty damn good here lately, Javy found his strikeout mojo and if he can K guys, give 6-7 IP with 3ish runs per, I'm happy. Contreras....I don't know what to think about him...I'd almost be inclined to move Jose, something just doesn't feel right here to me.

[GoSox05]

i doubt that all those pitchers will have bad seasons again. Maybe one will, but i think it was pretty crazy this year that all five, exceot Garland, had bad years at the same time.

[whitesoxfan101]

Next years rotation:

 

Garland

Contreras

Garcia

Vasquez

McCarthy

 

Pick up Mark's option, and trade him to an NL team for some major bullpen help (San Diego?)

 

Just my $0.02

[elrockinMT]

One has to go. There's no way in hell we can keep Brandon in the 'pen for another year.

 

 

You use McCarthy as trade bait. I have not been impressed. I would keep our 5 current starters

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Kenny Williams job won't be easy. Buehrle has been and is potentially our best starter but after this year his trade value is down. Garcia added a split finger and looks amazing. Then add in that maybe his fastball will come back.

Has Vasquez turned the corner after a season of working with Coop ? He looks so good lately ala Garcia. Contreras can be one of the best pitcher in the league when healthy but is he healthy? How old is he anyway ? Is he on a downward trend due to health and age ?

How big a factor is payroll ? Will that be a main consideration with moving a starter and putting BMac in the rotation? Can BMac be a relaible 5th starter after a year in the pen ?

Any one of these guys are capable of having a stellar season or being mediocre. Picking the wrong one to move could cost a pennant or even a World Series. Good luck figuring it out Kenny . I wouldn't want to be in your position.