Stocks and investing thread

[NorthSideSox72]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060927/ap_on_.../wall_street_80

 

So... are we going to bust over?

 

Durable goods orders reported this AM as down .5%, versus concensus +.5%, so I'd say its unlikely today. But maybe soon?

 

This reminds me... for the second straight month (first time in two years), durable goods large-ticket orders were down. The articles I read about that fact this AM talk about the negative impact that may have on factory production, and about this slow down being a surprise to some. To me, I think the reason should be obvious - the housing market is flattening, and in some places even deflating a bit.

 

Why is that important? Well, as I have stated in here previously, I think a BIG part of the reason why the economy recovered so quickly from the 2001 recession was the boom in housing market value, coupled with low interest rates. This pushed a lot of people to re-fi, or to take out equity. That money then went into the economy. A lot of people don't seem to be highlighting this in these articles, but I think its a big issue. Now, prices are flat at best, and interest rates are higher and going up. That means less cash in people's hands, and less going into big ticket items (durable goods).

 

So here is my second question... what do we think the housing market will do in the next year, 2 years and 5 years?

 

I'll make a prediction. I think, aside from a few absurdly over-valued markets (isolated, mostly in FL and CA), the market will stabilize but not decline much. And in fact, values will likely go back up, as equity markets go down a bit from this lack of cash in the economy. What this will eventually cause is further rises in housing in major urban markets, creating a wave of movement out to rural areas. This will be amplified by the retirement of the baby boomers, who will be looking for that recreational land or that cabin in the woods to retire too, where land is cheap. And of course, since even in the U.S. there is less and less land available... prices will go up by even larger percentages in rural areas. Basically, we will start becomind Europe, in the housing sense.

 

So, my advice... buy open space in areas with recreation opportunities, particularly if relatively nearby major urban centers.

 

What say you, economics and finance people?

[southsider2k5]

I'll talk more about longer term later, but I am going to bet we see a Dow 10,000 day where stocks touch the old record, and then run like hell, and end up negative for the day. At this very second we are under 10 points away from the current closing record, and are floating around it, but not quite making the run there.

[southsider2k5]

LOL. The old close high is 11,722.98 We got to 11720.77 before the market got scared and ran off. We dipped off about 30 points before the bleeding stopped, and are now floating around 11700. I think we will have the old fashioned double/triple top where the market tries to go through the old highs two/three times, and then created a new resistance point before finally turning for good to the red on the day.

 

Crude has dropped by $1 a barrel in the last hour, so that should provide the spark to make the next up runs for the Dow. If they are going to make a run at these highs here, its going to be soon.

[southsider2k5]

Dow made another top at 11717 at about 10:35

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Dow made another top at 11717 at about 10:35

 

 

Dow has 30 stocks in it. I'll be a lot more impressed when the S & P makes an all time high. That's still like 200 points off.

[southsider2k5]

 

 

LOL so predictable. Its almost funny. Really it was a 4 topper, but 3 solid runs at the high, and each of them trended just a little bit lower than the last one, which really was the indicator that it wasn't going to make it over the top. If you follow the trendlines you can see it giving out to where it finally does go negative. Right now we are treading water around unchanged for the day, but there really isn't too much support left after it goes under the 3rd moving average.

[southsider2k5]

Ah, now they are going to make it interesting... back through the short and the medium moving averages, looking to maybe make a late run at the record. Stay tuned.

[WilliamTell]

Dow misses the record by 34, end up 20 above.

 

Dow has 30 stocks in it. I'll be a lot more impressed when the S & P makes an all time high. That's still like 200 points off.

 

I don't even want to know what NASDAQ's all-time high was.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Dow misses the record by 34, end up 20 above.

I don't even want to know what NASDAQ's all-time high was.

 

 

 

LOL! Thats why I left it out. If I remember correctly it was 5048 or something like that on a closing basis.

[southsider2k5]

Well its just out of the open, but we have pushed through it. I think this might be the day! Solid opening indicators, no real bad news. I guess we will see.

[southsider2k5]

Well here we go... Its the last 20 minutes plus of the day and the Dow is sitting at about 11715, only 7 points from the all time closing record. There is a ton of resistance up there that has been built over the course of the last two days, but we keep bouncing off of the moving averages even as the bands have tightened up, so I really still think we are going to have a breakout to the upside and set a new record on the day.

[southsider2k5]

Damn. now 3 minutes to go and 3 points away!

 

Its not gonna be today. They got close, traded through it for about 5 minutes and got scared. Looks like we are going to finish 10-12 points away from the ATH going into Friday's trading day. So for the 3rd straight day we have the 2nd highest closing day on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ever...

[NorthSideSox72]

11716 and rising...

[southsider2k5]

11716 and rising...

 

Yeah, they have printed through it again today a couple different times, but it just can't get the big momentum push to get over the top. As a matter of a fact we are there again at this moment.

[southsider2k5]

Well the Dow has recorded its highest ever valuation today, trading as high as 11754.47 breaking the old high of 11750. This could be the day for the record close finally.

[southsider2k5]

The Dow Jones industrial average closes at an all-time high of 11727.34

 

[kapkomet]

The economy sucks, stupid.

[southsider2k5]

The economy sucks, stupid.

 

Shh, its all a conspiracy

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

The Dow Jones industrial average closes at an all-time high of 11727.34

 

 

Look for it to push even higher, along with the rest of the markets. Earnings are forecast to be very strong this time around and that, combined with a trainload of money on the sidelines, should provide plenty of fuel to keep this rally going.

[southsider2k5]

2ND straight record close for the DJIA up 123.27 to 11820.61, also the highest single print ever at 11851.17

[mmmmmbeeer]

I guess this is good news for my 401k, but I haven't honestly seen any large jumps in total savings over the past year or so while our economy has been "booming". It'd be great if I had more money to invest in this "booming", "record-breaking" stock market but unfortunately inflation has beaten my wage increases over the past 5 years. I'm somehow able to put a little over 20% of my income (10% 401k, 7% company match, 5% personal savings) aside for retirement, but it's just not enough. You talk to your grandparents and they were easily able to save 40%+ of their earnings because costs weren't near as high...not anymore....unless you're single, a DINK, or actually have a family but earn a shipload of money ($150K+), it's really getting increasingly difficult to put aside much at all. The numbers seem to indicate that many people have a tough time just meeting the company match on their 401k, a 3-month emergency fund is rare in the middle class any more. Lou Dobbs had an interesting commentary on this subject today, check it out. I love his closing lines.

 

Dobbs

[kapkomet]

I said this somewhere else, but talk to me when the S & P breaks records. Until then, this doesn't matter.

[Balta1701]

I said this somewhere else, but talk to me when the S & P breaks records. Until then, this doesn't matter.

It does matter to some extent...mainly in terms of it being a psychological barrier. As we saw last week, sometimes people just don't want to push the market beyond that.

 

In terms of saying anything about the economy as a whole, its impact is, as you say, rather little.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

I said this somewhere else, but talk to me when the S & P breaks records. Until then, this doesn't matter.

 

 

So did I. However, my 2 mutual funds are in full on rocking mode right now both being up well into double digits so Im not one to carp about details.

 

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

I guess this is good news for my 401k, but I haven't honestly seen any large jumps in total savings over the past year or so while our economy has been "booming". It'd be great if I had more money to invest in this "booming", "record-breaking" stock market but unfortunately inflation has beaten my wage increases over the past 5 years. I'm somehow able to put a little over 20% of my income (10% 401k, 7% company match, 5% personal savings) aside for retirement, but it's just not enough. You talk to your grandparents and they were easily able to save 40%+ of their earnings because costs weren't near as high...not anymore....unless you're single, a DINK, or actually have a family but earn a shipload of money ($150K+), it's really getting increasingly difficult to put aside much at all. The numbers seem to indicate that many people have a tough time just meeting the company match on their 401k, a 3-month emergency fund is rare in the middle class any more. Lou Dobbs had an interesting commentary on this subject today, check it out. I love his closing lines.

 

Dobbs

 

 

Im single, for the time being anyway, and I only manage to save about 1/3d of my income. I'd like to know exactly what policies Dobbs is talking about when he says "public policy is hurting the middle class". I AM the middle class and Im doing just fine.

 

Personally, I think it's not the government that's squeezing the middle class but they are doing it to themselves. Everybody wants the big SUV, everybody wants the 123413412435125 inch plasma screen TV, everybody wants a big house out in the burbs, and all new trendy furniture to go in it every 5 years.

 

Bottom line is that people are complete failures at living within their means. They want the world on a 40,000 a year income and when you tell them they cant have it, they cry poor and stomp their feet like little kids who didn't get an ice cream when they asked for it.

 

Dobbs is talking about 250 million casualties in a class war? My guess is that 90% of said casualties are suffering from self-inflicted wounds.