Stocks and investing thread

[kapkomet]

Sino-Chino relations have been bad for a long, long time.

[NorthSideSox72]

Sino-Chino relations have been bad for a long, long time.

yes, and they are currently rivals in the whole BRIC sphere of expanding economies.

 

[Rex Kickass]

Sino-Chino relations have been bad for a long, long time.

 

Sino-Chino?

 

Chinese relationship to casual pants?

[NorthSideSox72]

Sino-Chino?

 

Chinese relationship to casual pants?

 

I didn't even catch that at first. I think he means Indo-Sino.

 

[kapkomet]

Ooops.

[NorthSideSox72]

Ooops.

Just don't say "Indo-Chino" in any meetings, unless you want to be the subject of a Dilbert cartoon.

 

[kapkomet]

 

What can I say? I'm a walking Dilbert cartoon.

[NorthSideSox72]

 

What can I say? I'm a walking Dilbert cartoon.

Actually, its sounded like your previous company was a Dilbert cartoon. Did you have a pointy-haired boss?

 

[kapkomet]

Actually, its sounded like your previous company was a Dilbert cartoon. Did you have a pointy-haired boss?

Um, something like that. SHE was pretty pointy-haired.

 

[kapkomet]

Back to the Africa thing before I have to delve into a cesspool of a hellish Friday (my direct boss is in the hospital... so I get all his work on top of all of mine on top of still quasi filling the role I was in previously - I like being three people, honest)...

 

Europe has been trying since the Industrial Age to pull Africa into the mix as far as trying to outsource and use the labor pool. In our classes we had some documentaries from various sources that talked about the struggles of trying to get that going there - the top one was the tribal issues and the backstabbing to try to get the business itself. Where there has been inroads made, the bribery and power struggles are damn near impossible to get around. It's not like a caste system in India where they can push people into certain roles (although that's disapating to a certain extent now) and China who just makes people do what they want to by brainwashing them since birth).

 

There are warlords and tribal disputes all over that really leads to so much instability it's hard to harness the labor pool there. The conversations we had in our class was to say that if it could be done, we would have done it already. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's very difficult to get things done there from a business standpoint.

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Actually, while they don't have nearly the numbers that, say, India and China have... Russia does have a quickly growing, educated middle class, specifically in the larger cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. Some outsourcing in technology is already going there.

 

Speaking of India and China... Some companies in India who sell their outsource services are getting so much work, and are so hard-pressed for cheap labor, that they are double-outsourcing to China. And, interestingly enough, there have been some problems there because apparently Chinese workers sometimes refuse to work for an Indian firm. There is apparently some history there, probably over issues like Tibet and Burma.

 

That's I think the problem here... we were in different economic classes, I think I was envisioning more like grunt labor, you know, manufacturing and industry.

 

Also another interesting tidbit of info I picked up this morning... The trade deficit narrowed way more than expected. They had predicted $58.5 billion, and it was actually $56.5 billion.

[NorthSideSox72]

That's I think the problem here... we were in different economic classes, I think I was envisioning more like grunt labor, you know, manufacturing and industry.

 

Also another interesting tidbit of info I picked up this morning... The trade deficit narrowed way more than expected. They had predicted $58.5 billion, and it was actually $56.5 billion.

If I recall, that decrease is partly due to the dollar's fall in value, isn't it?

 

[kapkomet]

If I recall, that decrease is partly due to the dollar's fall in value, isn't it?

Yes, which is exactly what they are trying to accomplish, BTW. I personally have a little disagreement with this policy, but they are trying to make our goods cheaper overseas to alleviate some of the trade imbalances.

[southsider2k5]

Yes, which is exactly what they are trying to accomplish, BTW. I personally have a little disagreement with this policy, but they are trying to make our goods cheaper overseas to alleviate some of the trade imbalances.

 

FWIW, the full story

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071109/economy.html?.v=5

 

Trade Gap Narrowed in September

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

Falling Dollar Spurs Foreigners to Buy American, Pushing Exports to Record Level

 

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. trade deficit fell to the lowest level in 28 months as a falling dollar spurred U.S. exports to an all-time high. The deficit with China jumped to the second highest level on record as imports of toys and other goods surged despite a rash of safety recalls.

 

The Commerce Department said Friday that the deficit for September dipped by 0.6 percent from the previous month -- to $56.5 billion. That was the narrowest trade imbalance since May 2005 and took economists by surprise. They had been forecasting the deficit would rise.

 

The improvement came from a 1.1 percent jump in U.S. exports, which climbed to a record $140.1 billion. The dollars' decline against many major currencies has made U.S. goods cheaper and more competitive in foreign markets. For September, sales of American-made cars, computers and farm products including corn, cotton, wheat and soybeans were all up.

 

Imports also rose in September, climbing by 0.6 percent to $196.6 billion, the second highest level on record. Imports of foreign-made cars, televisions and clothing were all up. Oil imports, however, fell by 0.8 percent to $10.5 billion, an improvement that is likely to be temporary given the recent surge in oil prices to close to $100 per barrel.

 

The deficit with China rose 5.5 percent to $23.8 billion, second only to a $24.4 billion deficit in October 2006. Imports surged to the second highest level on record, pushed up by big gains in imports of Chinese-made televisions, cell phones, computers and toys as retailers stocked their shelves for Christmas.

 

Those gains were occurring despite a string of high-profile recalls of Chinese products this year -- everything from toys with lead paint to defective tires and chemical-tainted toothpaste and pet food ingredients.

 

Through September, the trade deficit is running at an annual rate of $703.4 billion, down by 7.4 percent from last year's $758.5 billion. Analysts believe that surging exports from a weaker dollar will lead to a narrowing of the deficit for the full year, breaking a string of five consecutive records.

 

Critics of President Bush's trade policies say that even with the narrowing of the deficit this year, the imbalances are still running at unsustainable levels, forcing the United States to depend more and more on foreigners' willingness to hold dollars to finance the imbalances.

 

While a falling dollar is good for exports, it raises worries that at some point foreigners will be less willing to purchase dollar-denominated investments such as U.S. stocks and bonds. Such a change in sentiment could send stock prices plunging and push up U.S. interest rates.

 

The administration scored its first congressional victory on trade this week when the House passed a free trade agreement with Peru. However, approval of three other deals with Panama, Colombia and South Korea are expected to face tougher challenges in Congress.

 

For September, America's foreign oil bill dropped by 0.8 percent to $10.5 billion reflecting a drop in volume. The average price for a barrel of imported crude rose to a record $68.51 in September and is expected to climb even higher with the recent spike in spot oil prices, which traded this week near $100 per barrel.

 

The imbalance with the European Union dropped a sharp 37.1 percent to $6.4 billion. The dollar has fallen to record lows against the 13-nation euro currency, which means that U.S. products are cheaper in those markets while European goods are more expensive for American consumers.

 

The deficit with Canada, America's largest trading partner, dropped by 3.2 percent to $4.9 billion while the imbalance with Mexico fell 9.3 percent to $6.3 billion.

 

 

 

 

 

[BigSqwert]

The Dow taking another hit this morning because of Wachovia stating it will take quarterly loan losses due to its debt portfolio.

 

[southsider2k5]

The Dow taking another hit this morning because of Wachovia stating it will take quarterly loan losses due to its debt portfolio.

 

So we are starting to look at magic numbers again...

 

13000 is the big number today. If they can get to that, and stay above it, that bodes well for the stocks. If they close through that today, the next stop is 12600.

[southsider2k5]

The WSJ seems to be calling "top" on oil prices, there is also one more very intersting tidbit that is buried in the article that I haven't heard anywhere else so far...

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1194976258...=googlenews_wsj

 

Soaring Oil Prices Could Hit a Speed Bump

By NEIL KING JR.

November 13, 2007 12:55 p.m.

 

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- The big oil-price surge of 2007 may not be over yet, but signs are emerging of a significant cooling that could put the $100-a-barrel benchmark out of reach for the near term.

 

For industrialized countries skittish over soaring crude prices, much of the news this week has been good. There are signs of ebbing oil demand in the U.S. and Russia. The dollar has strengthened slightly. Daily output in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Angola is up.

 

Just as important, perhaps, are the soothing noises here from the de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ali Naimi.

 

In remarks to reporters Tuesday, Mr. Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, said the world's economy "is resilient and continues to be resilient" and that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil supplier, didn't foresee a recession in the U.S., the largest oil consumer.

 

Mr. Naimi also argued strenuously against "the pessimists" that he says have been driving up prices by predicting impending supply shortages and soaring demand. "The price today has really no reflection whatsoever with the fundamentals" of supply and demand, he said, repeating a frequent lament from other OPEC ministers lately that prices have soared solely because of the falling dollar, geopolitical jitters and market speculation.

 

After hitting an intraday high of over $98 a barrel last week, U.S. benchmark crude has since slid, falling 2.4% Tuesday to $92.33 as of late morning on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It remains below the inflation-adjusted high of $101.70 reached in April 1980.

 

The International Energy Agency helped buttress the case that some corners of the world market aren't hungering for more oil. In a monthly report, the industrialized world's energy watchdog said it was lowering its prediction for global demand for the fourth quarter by 500,000 barrels a day, thanks mainly to signs of weakening demand in the U.S. and the former Soviet states.

 

The IEA added that world oil supply rose in October by 1.4 million barrels a day. One surprise performer was Iraq, where output from its northern fields is expected this month to top 600,000 barrels a day, setting a record since a U.S.-led coalition invaded Iraq in early 2003. The IEA also cited increased production from Angola, a new OPEC member that is also emerging as an important supplier of crude to the U.S.

 

OPEC countries supply around 40% of the world's oil demand, which now runs at just over 85 million barrels a day.

 

Demand for oil has continued to climb in much of the world despite soaring prices. But the IEA said "strong indications" are emerging that "high prices are depressing demand" in industrialized countries.

 

Some oil analysts cited the IEA data as evidence that prices may now be on a downward slope. A report from Lehman Brothers said various factors, including softer demand and a boost in OPEC supply, could mean the market has hit a "turning point away from the recent near-$100 highs."

 

Mr. Naimi has left open the possibility in recent days that OPEC may decide to raise its output ceiling next month, when ministers meet formally to discuss policy. But he ruled out any such discussion this week, as OPEC heads of state gather here for a rare top-level, but largely formal, summit that is supposed to include Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.

 

Saudi Arabia is keen to use the media spotlight this week to drive home the point that it has plenty of oil to go around, and that its supplies aren't dwindling, as some analysts have argued in recent years. The country's national oil company, Aramco, has sponsored media tours to its headquarters in Dhahran, to a huge new petrochemical complex along the Red Sea, and to one of its longstanding oil fields, which the company is now looking to expand.

 

As by far OPEC's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia has about 11.3 million barrels a day in capacity. Mr. Naimi said that despite rising production costs, the country was on schedule to boost capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009.

 

Mr. Naimi grinned when asked if he saw a competitive threat from countries like Canada, which has begun to extract oil from its so-called tar sands in the wilds of Alberta. "I am not aware of any more lucrative acreage than Saudi Arabia," he said.

 

Write to Neil King Jr. at [email protected]

[Balta1701]

If you watch oil prices over the past few years, that sort of triangle pattern is common. A fairly slow rise up to some plateau, then a pretty quick dropoff once the price overshoots where it should be and demand slows. Then, a slow climb back up to a higher price level.

[Balta1701]

So the government is in the process of twisting the arms of Federal Reserve Board members to lower interest rates by as much as 2 percentage points over the next year, including potentially a whopping half-point cut next week. That will allow banks to go back to one of their favorite recession-delaying ploys: encouraging debt-strapped consumers to refinance their loans at lower rates.

 

If that doesn't work, the government has been making noises about creating something like a Marshall Plan for home foreclosures -- a giant bailout fund similar to one used during previous housing crises. Just for good measure, analyst Bove notes, the administration is engaged in other types of powerful job-creating fiscal stimuli as well, such as ramping up spending on defense, infrastructure and transportation construction. "The administration in power is not going to go into an election year in a recession," he insists.

 

These hazardous ploys would be aimed at papering over the nation's debt problems until after the November 2008 election, after which nobody currently in power really cares what happens. If Democrats take over the White House, the Republicans will blame them for any economic calamities to come. If a Republican wins, he'll be happy to continue a long-standing tradition of allowing the nation to take some harsh medicine in the first year of his administration so he can take credit for fixing it in the three years hence -- just before the next election. It happened in 2001 and in 1991, and you can bet it will happen in 2009.

Link

[southsider2k5]

Link

 

I wonder why he didn't tell us who shot JFK while he was at it?

[kapkomet]

Link

That's a nice steaming pile of s*** right there.

[Balta1701]

No idea exactly what it will mean, but politically, it's probably worth noting that the 3 states currently hardest hit by the surge in foreclosures happen to be 1. the state with the most people and, 2-3: the 2 states that have decided the last 2 Presidential elections. California, Ohio, and Florida right now are out in front leading the country in the foreclosure mess. That's an interesting set of states, to be sure.

[NorthSideSox72]

No idea exactly what it will mean, but politically, it's probably worth noting that the 3 states currently hardest hit by the surge in foreclosures happen to be 1. the state with the most people and, 2-3: the 2 states that have decided the last 2 Presidential elections. California, Ohio, and Florida right now are out in front leading the country in the foreclosure mess. That's an interesting set of states, to be sure.

Also interesting is that they are not on that list for the same reasons. FL and CA had housing markets that were laughably hyper-inflated, and are now crashing out. OH is a victim for the same reasons its been an economic victim for a few decades - decaying manufacturing sector, high unemployment and an apparent inability to effectively recover and adapt to new job markets. Therefore, any campaign approach taken using that subject needs to take different approaches in the different states.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Average gallon of gas now $3.09, just a penny below the peak of $3.10 (adjusted) from 1981, and 9 cents short of the all-time record of $3.18 set last May. Forecasters predict it will blow past that in the coming weeks.

 

[southsider2k5]

So Oil rallied like crazy again today, up about $3.50 to get over $98 a barrell. It looks like we are going to get at least one run at $100. Stay tuned.