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NorthSideSox72

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QUOTE(Cknolls @ Jan 22, 2008 -> 11:18 AM)
I will say this. There is finally some edge back in the pits for traders. Spreads are wider and p/l 's are greener. My take right now is we go back to test 1293 on futures on the downside. Or we test 1327.50 on the upside.

 

Well we had our bloodletting, so a rally really is possible right now.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2008 -> 11:30 AM)
Well we had our bloodletting, so a rally really is possible right now.

I thought that too after seeing the bounceback after the lows this morning. Everyone dumped what they wanted to, so now it's time to roll.

 

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Any thoughts on this boondoggle they are calling a stimulus package?

 

 

What does everyone think?

 

Shouldn't the gov't just lower tax rates across the board and let us keep more of our money instead of giving us a rebate? The interest saved amounts to a nice chunk of change.

 

 

 

 

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QUOTE(Cknolls @ Jan 22, 2008 -> 02:24 PM)
Any thoughts on this boondoggle they are calling a stimulus package?

What does everyone think?

 

Shouldn't the gov't just lower tax rates across the board and let us keep more of our money instead of giving us a rebate? The interest saved amounts to a nice chunk of change.

The rebate isn't a horrible idea, but its not going to fix much. And the idea being floated to disallow forcelosures for some period of time would be disastrous. The temp hold on mortgage rate increases is not a bad idea. Lowering taxes for certain brackets a bit isn't a bad one either, but I'd try to couple it with lifting/removing the SS cap - takes the sting out of both ends a bit, and helps long run. Some better regulation of mortgage brokers is needed, and the public schools in this country need to make financial education a bigger part of the curriculum.

 

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2008 -> 02:24 PM)
12000 is a big big number for the Dow. If they break that, they might end up at 20% down from the highs, which is official bear market territory.

 

 

Bear mkt started last July and was confirmed when we closed below the weekly, monthly and yearly closes on the SPX.

 

 

 

Also, what tricks does BIG BEN have up his sleeve when these cuts do nothing. The Fed is trying to stimulate credit growth while banks are trying to protect themselves by actively reducing it. Example, Fifth Third CC this morning, "The impact of the Fed's rate cut is muted because e bank hedges its income for changes in rates, and so the effectiveness of the rate cut largely depends on whether the cut spurs economic activity in our base."

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QUOTE(Cknolls @ Jan 22, 2008 -> 03:31 PM)
Bear mkt started last July and was confirmed when we closed below the weekly, monthly and yearly closes on the SPX.

Also, what tricks does BIG BEN have up his sleeve when these cuts do nothing. The Fed is trying to stimulate credit growth while banks are trying to protect themselves by actively reducing it. Example, Fifth Third CC this morning, "The impact of the Fed's rate cut is muted because e bank hedges its income for changes in rates, and so the effectiveness of the rate cut largely depends on whether the cut spurs economic activity in our base."

How do you get that they are "actively reducing it" from that quote? That quotes says, to me, that 5/3 will only see benefit if more borrowers come to them because of decreased rates. Which is of course the whole point.

 

And your definition of a bear market is not the same as the one I've been taught - a 20% drop from a high. We aren't there yet.

 

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 22, 2008 -> 02:52 PM)
How do you get that they are "actively reducing it" from that quote? That quotes says, to me, that 5/3 will only see benefit if more borrowers come to them because of decreased rates. Which is of course the whole point.

 

And your definition of a bear market is not the same as the one I've been taught - a 20% drop from a high. We aren't there yet.

 

That is the generally accepted definition, and that number is about 11331.00 in the Dow.

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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 22, 2008 -> 02:03 PM)
I thought bear was 10% reduction. So this would just be a Cub market? Nobody's winning, and nobody's losing enough to care?

We need about another 100 years of losing before its anywhere close to a cub market.

 

After about the 50th year, the stockbrokers start sacrificing goats, it just gets messy.

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Here's the official word on a bear market;

 

Bear market

A bear market is described as being accompanied by widespread pessimism. Investors anticipating further losses are motivated to sell, with negative sentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle. The most famous bear market in history was 1930 to 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression.[5] A milder, low-level long-term bear market occurred from about 1967 to 1983, encompassing the stagflation economy, energy crises in the 1970s, and high unemployment in the early 1980s.

 

Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market; a bear market is not a simple decline, but a substantial drop in the prices of a range of issues over a defined period of time. By one common definition, a bear market is marked by a price decline of 20% or more in a key stock market index from a recent peak over a 12-month period. However, no consensual definition of a bear market exists to clearly differentiate a primary market trend from a secondary market trend.

 

Investors frequently confuse bear markets with corrections. Corrections are much shorter lived, whereas bear markets occur over a longer period with typically a greater magnitude of loss from top to bottom.

 

 

Also our market has bounced back up 6% this morning. They certainly took the news about the Fed Cut well.

 

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By the way, on individual stocks.... does anyone else think JetBlue is currently a steal at 4.70 a share? I'm no economist and I know that airline stocks are generally not good performers... but Lufthansa just dumped 750 million into the airline for 19% and I wouldn't think that would happen for a short term deal.

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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 02:51 AM)
By the way, on individual stocks.... does anyone else think JetBlue is currently a steal at 4.70 a share? I'm no economist and I know that airline stocks are generally not good performers... but Lufthansa just dumped 750 million into the airline for 19% and I wouldn't think that would happen for a short term deal.

JetBlue will probably be the first US non-core airline to start intercontinental flights. I just don't see Southwest, AirTran, Frontier or Midwest Express doing it. And that market is very lucrative. So yeah, I'd say that might be a good bet. But I don't know JetBlue's financials right now either.

 

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 07:42 AM)
JetBlue will probably be the first US non-core airline to start intercontinental flights. I just don't see Southwest, AirTran, Frontier or Midwest Express doing it. And that market is very lucrative. So yeah, I'd say that might be a good bet. But I don't know JetBlue's financials right now either.

Two comments here. 1- I've dealt with Lufthansa people personally back in the day when I was in the airline industry. They wouldn't have invested if they didn't want to do something with it. 2- Having said that, JetBlue or ANY airline is a huge risk in this environment. They may merge with someone, which would add value at that time. Remember, they took a huge hit when they had their Valentine's Day fiasco last year and are still paying for it.

 

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QUOTE(kapkomet @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 08:49 AM)
Two comments here. 1- I've dealt with Lufthansa people personally back in the day when I was in the airline industry. They wouldn't have invested if they didn't want to do something with it. 2- Having said that, JetBlue or ANY airline is a huge risk in this environment. They may merge with someone, which would add value at that time. Remember, they took a huge hit when they had their Valentine's Day fiasco last year and are still paying for it.

By the way, speaking of airline mergers, here are two official NSS72 predictions for the industry...

 

1. Frontier and AirTran will begin merger talks, representing the first major merger among the "new kids". Their businesses are just too perfect a pairing. They already have some sharing agreements.

 

2. At least one of the second tier hub airlines - Delta, Northwest, Continental, US Airways - will merge with another from the same group. Its just hard to say which one(s) will be involved.

 

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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:51 AM)
By the way, on individual stocks.... does anyone else think JetBlue is currently a steal at 4.70 a share? I'm no economist and I know that airline stocks are generally not good performers... but Lufthansa just dumped 750 million into the airline for 19% and I wouldn't think that would happen for a short term deal.

 

Rule #1 of all trading, only risk what you are able to lose. If you will miss the money if JBLU goes bankrupt, don't do it.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 08:25 AM)
Rule #1 of all trading, only risk what you are able to lose. If you will miss the money if JBLU goes bankrupt, don't do it.

 

 

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 08:29 AM)
Are their financials that bad? I didn't look.

When compared to the traditional hub model airlines, they don't do so bad. Again, Lufthansa wouldn't have put money in it for it to go bankrupt. Lufthansa was going to do something with the airline I used to work at on the cargo side of things, but when they did their due diligence, they deemed us as a going concern. That was actually AFTER we came out of bankruptcy, and that's when I knew to move on. They wouldn't have invested for it to go bankrupt, is all I'm saying.

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