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NorthSideSox72

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 1, 2007 -> 03:56 PM)
I doubt anyone will want to carry positions over the weekend

 

Speak for yourself. It's our anniversary and we are ditching the kids and going away for the weekend.

 

[/cue adult movie music in 3. . . 2. . . . . Bump-chukkah. . . Bump-chukkah. . . Bump-chukkah. . . ]

 

:)

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QUOTE(FlaSoxxJim @ Mar 1, 2007 -> 03:19 PM)
Speak for yourself. It's our anniversary and we are ditching the kids and going away for the weekend.

 

[/cue adult movie music in 3. . . 2. . . . . Bump-chukkah. . . Bump-chukkah. . . Bump-chukkah. . . ]

 

:)

 

I think I just threw up in my mouth. ;)

 

Have fun and congrats! :cheers

Edited by mreye
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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 1, 2007 -> 12:56 PM)
Meh, it might well be the beginning of a sell-off by the technical signs aren't there. Yesterday they rallied back, but finished on the lows, which ususally means they are exhausting the "buy the dips" people. The market did open sharply lower, which wasn't a big surprise, but instead of sustaining the selling, the market actually rallied back pretty well, even going green for a while. It looks like we are going to finish in the high end of the range. I would bet tomorrow is a 100 point plus down day, as I doubt anyone will want to carry positions over the weekend, but barring bad news, I would bet on a rally early next week.

I'd just like to add...I'm impressed.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 2, 2007 -> 04:10 PM)
I'd just like to add...I'm impressed.

 

Thanks :)

 

Today will be an interesting one. As goes Monday, goes the week. So far things are looking good as the US markets are bucking big down days in Japan (-4%) and Europe (-2%) and are in positive territory. To the naked eye, it looks like we have drawn the line in the sand at 12000.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Dow had the air taken out of it again today. It was down about 200 at its low point, and has bounced back a little bit with around an hour and a half to go. They are still bouncing off of the 12100 level, so it seems that is a pretty solid support number unless something else happens. The interesting thing is that energy prices are pretty well down, which usually creates a little bit more for the bulls, but not today.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 13, 2007 -> 11:36 AM)
Dow had the air taken out of it again today. It was down about 200 at its low point, and has bounced back a little bit with around an hour and a half to go. They are still bouncing off of the 12100 level, so it seems that is a pretty solid support number unless something else happens. The interesting thing is that energy prices are pretty well down, which usually creates a little bit more for the bulls, but not today.

So, we're not nearly @ the end of the day yet, but following up on yesterday's down trend, the market gave back some early attempts at gains today...and has broken through the 12000 level. Right now it's at about 11950.

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It's back over 12000, but I can definitely understand the nervousness. Everyone thought the housing slump was over and now with all the subprime mortgage issues - coupled with GM needing to float its GMAC arm a billion dollars to keep it alive, has got to be scaring the crap out of Joe Investor today.

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GM was our "something else" happening for the day.

 

12000 is a big round number. Markets don't like closes below big round numbers. If we go through 12k on the close, next stop is either 11,700 or 11,500. This whole subprime thing, plus GMs disappointing earnings has some people spooked.

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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Mar 14, 2007 -> 10:43 AM)
Southsider: am I wrong in thinking that the billions and billions locked up in subprime lending going south will be a huge catalyst to a possible recession?

Personally, I've thought for a while that the housing market bursting in general, not just the subprime market, might well be a catalyst for such an event. That market just went crazy the last 6 years or so with the excessively low interest rates, to the point where people being able to take money out of the increased value of their homes was a significant driving force for the growth out there. The fact that housing prices have stopped growing in general for now will remove that stimulus, and it will probably only get worse with time as all of the fancy new "Interest-only" or similar mortgages start hitting the ballooning payments that were supposed to trigger people to sell.

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QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Mar 14, 2007 -> 12:43 PM)
Southsider: am I wrong in thinking that the billions and billions locked up in subprime lending going south will be a huge catalyst to a possible recession?

 

From a dollar standpoint, billions isn't nearly as much as it sounds like, and neither is the subprime market. If these dopes actually paid attention to history for once, they would learn that making loans to people who probably won't be able to pay them back at a higher percentage than most is a dumb idea. I know I can't be the only one here who remembers the SNLs and junk bond stupidity. In reality the subprime market is a small fraction of all mortgages, as the vast majority of reputable lenders don't want the risk on their books.

 

That being said from a dollars standpoint, no, I don't think this is enough to push a recesion. What danger we get out of this is a change in mentality that could lead to a recession. An event like this can change people's mind that things are going to be OK. The dirty little secret that no one wants to admit is that perception is reality when it comes to our economy. This is really dangerous if people think it is a bad thing. If they sell this the right, it shouldn't make a difference as I understand it. This could be another card in the deck towards a recession, but not on its own merits from a dollar standpoint.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 15, 2007 -> 05:18 AM)
The next two days are going to be fun. Friday is a quadruple witching. Yeah volitility!

Am I supposed to have a clue what that means? I can give you a description of quadrupole splitting (one of the things you measure when you use a Mossbauer spectrometer on Fe), but that one is over my head.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 15, 2007 -> 11:11 AM)
Am I supposed to have a clue what that means? I can give you a description of quadrupole splitting (one of the things you measure when you use a Mossbauer spectrometer on Fe), but that one is over my head.

 

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quadruplewitching.asp

 

A day on which contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire.

 

This is similar to the triple witching hour, except that the quadruple witching hour sees also the expiry of SSFs.

 

Quadruple witching days occur on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.

 

What is means for the market is a ton more volatility as people use the primary market to hedge against their moves in the derivatives that are expiring. You tend to get big violent swings as more people are trading than usual, and moves in the stock directly affect the prices of their derivatives.

 

Wiki had the definition for triple witching, but that is kind of outdated with the intro of Single Stock Futures (SSFs)

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_witching_hour

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 21, 2007 -> 08:45 AM)
2 day Fed meetings are the absolute most boring days in the world to work in this industry

sleep.gif

 

it needs to be 1:15 already

But I have a feeling that PHT will be hopping today, with the roster reduction to 28. So at least you have some distraction.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 21, 2007 -> 08:51 AM)
But I have a feeling that PHT will be hopping today, with the roster reduction to 28. So at least you have some distraction.

 

Energy inventory numbers come out this morning as well, hopefully that will give us a bit of a pop.

 

I am looking foward to the roster moves. This year is a lot more up in the air than it has been in a while.

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  • 4 weeks later...
QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Apr 20, 2007 -> 12:56 PM)
Yesterday was a second record close, and today the Dow is up about 100 points, in shouting distance of 13000 for the first time in history, and still no posts? Dang, I guess you have to be down for there be any interest in the blue chips!

 

 

That's cool as hell for me and my mutual funds but my interest ends there.

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