Stocks and investing thread

[southsider2k5]

The Dow opened over the 13,000 mark today, trading there for the first time in history.

[NorthSideSox72]

The Dow opened over the 13,000 mark today, trading there for the first time in history.

Apparently they aren't terribly worried about the sudden housing spasm we had yesterday. Rates are effected, though. I think the consequences of the real estate "bubble" (really more like a spike for most people) are going to start being felt this year and next.

[southsider2k5]

So we did get yet another all time record for the Dow Jones and the first close over 13,000, with a pretty nice up date, settling just under 13,100.

[southsider2k5]

I know what will get everyone posting... You will see $3.00 gas nationwide on average within two weeks. Probably more like $3.50 in Chicago.

[NorthSideSox72]

I know what will get everyone posting... You will see $3.00 gas nationwide on average within two weeks. Probably more like $3.50 in Chicago.

I'll insert my usual line here...

 

Good.

 

Pain in the short run, but big benefit in the long run.

[Rex Kickass]

I'm guessing we'll see 3.50 nationwide by Memorial Day, a lot of places pushing 4.

[southsider2k5]

I'm guessing we'll see 3.50 nationwide by Memorial Day, a lot of places pushing 4.

The futures haven't pushed that hard, but all it takes is one big, bad thing happening. More realistically, I could see $4 around Labor Day.

[Balta1701]

I know what will get everyone posting... You will see $3.00 gas nationwide on average within two weeks. Probably more like $3.50 in Chicago.

For God's sake i'd love to pay $3 again. Haven't seen that since November.

[mr_genius]

The economy is really strong right now. It should be getting more press.

Edited April 26, 2007 by mr_genius

[NorthSideSox72]

The economy is really strong right now. It should be getting more press.

When does any kind of good news ever get enough press? The media focuses on the bad, because that's what sells.

[pierard]

When does any kind of good news ever get enough press? The media focuses on the bad, because that's what sells.

 

It could be that the economy is not as strong as it appears. If the dollar had the same value it had from 95-00 then yes this would be an economic milestone. However, the dollar has lost 50% of its value during Bush's Presidency so in reality the DOW closed at 6,500 in 99 dollars. Not impressive at all, don't buy the hype.

[NorthSideSox72]

It could be that the economy is not as strong as it appears. If the dollar had the same value it had from 95-00 then yes this would be an economic milestone. However, the dollar has lost 50% of its value during Bush's Presidency so in reality the DOW closed at 6,500 in 99 dollars. Not impressive at all, don't buy the hype.

I think you are making a direct financial relationship that does not exist. Even if the dollar has lost 50% of its value (which seems high) on an FX basis, that is not the same as saying the value of the dollar to the average American is cut in half. Inflation even when compounded since 99 has been very, very low. Yes, the lowered value of the dollar because of poor fiscal policy is a serious problem. No, the DJIA is not the equivalent of 6500.

[pierard]

I think you are making a direct financial relationship that does not exist. Even if the dollar has lost 50% of its value (which seems high) on an FX basis, that is not the same as saying the value of the dollar to the average American is cut in half. Inflation even when compounded since 99 has been very, very low. Yes, the lowered value of the dollar because of poor fiscal policy is a serious problem. No, the DJIA is not the equivalent of 6500.

 

 

I tried to value the dow relative to gold (price per once). More than likely, I made a mistake. But here are two articles I found interesting: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...amp;refer=japan

 

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_repor...keyword=article

[mr_genius]

When does any kind of good news ever get enough press? The media focuses on the bad, because that's what sells.

 

actually, the good economy got tons of press during the Clintion admin.

 

It could be that the economy is not as strong as it appears. If the dollar had the same value it had from 95-00 then yes this would be an economic milestone. However, the dollar has lost 50% of its value during Bush's Presidency so in reality the DOW closed at 6,500 in 99 dollars. Not impressive at all, don't buy the hype.

 

a low dollar value does not necessarily indicate a weak economy. right now, the high value of the Euro actually hurts that economy. there is a reason China keeps it's currency at a low value. the EU is upset with the US and China because they feel both countries are purposely keeping it's currency at a low value, creating an unfair economic advantage.

Edited April 27, 2007 by mr_genius

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

actually, the good economy got tons of press during the Clintion admin.

a low dollar value does not necessarily indicate a weak economy. right now, the high value of the Euro actually hurts that economy. there is a reason China keeps it's currency at a low value. the EU is upset with the US and China because they feel both countries are purposely keeping it's currency at a low value, creating an unfair economic advantage.

 

Who are they to whine about unfair economic advantages when they subsidize companies like Airbus with government money.

[Balta1701]

Who are they to whine about unfair economic advantages when they subsidize companies like Airbus with government money.

Well, to be totally accurate, the U.S. government subsidizes plenty of things as well. Especially farmers, but then think about those brief Steel tarrifs Mr. Bush instituted, all of the subsidies given to energy companies, etc.

[southsider2k5]

3rd straight record close yesterday, but down so far in early trading. Looks like we will get the usual selloff on the Friday after a big up week. Look for stocks to settle right around the 13K mark today.

[southsider2k5]

So no big surprise, the Dow Jones finshed with another new record high close, for the third day in a row, finishing at 13241.38. It was the 21st up day out of the last 24 sessions, and the 40th record high close for the Dow since October. Remember the original old high was 11,729, so we are about 15% above the old records.

 

Now I have heard the cries about the Dow being a narrow based index, which isn't necesarily reflective of most of America, but try this one on for size. The S&P 500 closed over 1500 (at 1502.39) for the first time since September of 2000, right before the stock bubble burst. Besides being a HUGE psychological boost for the market, and attracting tons of money sitting on the sidelines for a potential breakout, it also put the SPs within shooting range of their all-time closing high of 1527.46. They are only 1.5% away from that mark, which is attainable in short work if the momentum continues.

 

Once again, this market rally has been incredible, but hardly mentioned in most parts.

[kapkomet]

If/when the market corrects itself and falls, that will be the perils of the George Bush economy.

 

f***wads.

[southsider2k5]

If/when the market corrects itself and falls, that will be the perils of the George Bush economy.

 

f***wads.

 

Heck after the one day of a 4% correction, Paul Krugman had already written up a facitious article about the collapse of the stock market from the perspective of a year in the future. The sharks have been waiting for the economy to go into the tank for a while now.

[Balta1701]

Heck after the one day of a 4% correction, Paul Krugman had already written up a facitious article about the collapse of the stock market from the perspective of a year in the future. The sharks have been waiting for the economy to go into the tank for a while now.

I think a big part of the reason for this is that as far as the majority of Americans go, this economy is still not trickling down. To my eyes, it's the same reason why ads last year trying to run on the "Strong economy" didn't work for the party in power...the average person just doesn't feel this economy is anywhere near as strong as the market does.

 

I can go up and down the list. Higher oil prices. Inflation (I'm paying 20% more for milk than I was a mere 4 months ago!). The weakening of the housing market (vacancies are at a record high now), the bankruptcy bill, skyrocketing health care prices, the fact that the job market is sputtering along barely able to keep up with population growth, and the complete stagnation of median income over the past few years. I know for a fact that you can tell me all you want about how great the Stock Market is doing, that doesn't change the fact that I'm working 2 jobs right now because the Fiancee can't find one. When people's personal economic situation is in the tank, no amount of stories about how great the stock market is doing will change their opinion of the situation.

[kapkomet]

I think a big part of the reason for this is that as far as the majority of Americans go, this economy is still not trickling down. To my eyes, it's the same reason why ads last year trying to run on the "Strong economy" didn't work for the party in power...the average person just doesn't feel this economy is anywhere near as strong as the market does.

 

I can go up and down the list. Higher oil prices. Inflation (I'm paying 20% more for milk than I was a mere 4 months ago!). The weakening of the housing market (vacancies are at a record high now), the bankruptcy bill, skyrocketing health care prices, the fact that the job market is sputtering along barely able to keep up with population growth, and the complete stagnation of median income over the past few years. I know for a fact that you can tell me all you want about how great the Stock Market is doing, that doesn't change the fact that I'm working 2 jobs right now because the Fiancee can't find one. When people's personal economic situation is in the tank, no amount of stories about how great the stock market is doing will change their opinion of the situation.

oh, it's trickling down.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

I think a big part of the reason for this is that as far as the majority of Americans go, this economy is still not trickling down. To my eyes, it's the same reason why ads last year trying to run on the "Strong economy" didn't work for the party in power...the average person just doesn't feel this economy is anywhere near as strong as the market does.

 

I can go up and down the list. Higher oil prices. Inflation (I'm paying 20% more for milk than I was a mere 4 months ago!). The weakening of the housing market (vacancies are at a record high now), the bankruptcy bill, skyrocketing health care prices, the fact that the job market is sputtering along barely able to keep up with population growth, and the complete stagnation of median income over the past few years. I know for a fact that you can tell me all you want about how great the Stock Market is doing, that doesn't change the fact that I'm working 2 jobs right now because the Fiancee can't find one. When people's personal economic situation is in the tank, no amount of stories about how great the stock market is doing will change their opinion of the situation.

 

 

In many cases the fact that people's personal economic situation is jacked up is their own fault. They all want flat panel TVs, a full new set of furniture every couple of years, the latest and greatest gadgets and on and on and on. None of this stuff is needs, it's wants and they don't make the salaries to get it all so they buy on credit and rack up mountains of high interest debt.

 

This one really ticks me off. The also want to buy a home when they don't have the money for a down payment so they get these crazy sub-prime loans and then have the balls to whine when interest rates go up and they get their throats cut. All that tells me is that they don't research the potential risks of such a venture or they simply don't care.

 

Your average consumer knows jack and squat about properly managing their money. They make financial decisions based on instant gratification versus long term planning.

 

If you live within your means and park some money in investments then anyone can benefit from this stock market surge. I don't make the greatest salary in the world but I'm making out like a bandit these days because when I was 20-21 I was already saving a rather large percentage of my pay.

 

Heck after the one day of a 4% correction, Paul Krugman had already written up a facitious article about the collapse of the stock market from the perspective of a year in the future. The sharks have been waiting for the economy to go into the tank for a while now.

 

 

You have the balls to ride out blips in the market and hang in there you can't miss. The day after that big drop I put a bunch of idle cash to work in my existing mutual funds and it has paid off nicely.

[kapkomet]

ok, honestly, this run by the current market is totally unfounded and ridiculous. I have a feeling what we're seeing is some (ahem) foreign buying here to push things up to an "irrational" level. There's more then meets the eye on this "rise" of the markets, IMO.

[southsider2k5]

24 out of 27 days have been up days, the best streak since, drumroll please, 1927!