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Latest White Sox VORP Ratings


RME JICO

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Here are the latest VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) ratings for the Sox. I also listed the projected ratings that were given at the start of the season (on the left). Some players totally exceeded expectations (Dye, Thome), while others did not (Podsednik, Buehrle, Anderson, Uribe, Vazquez).

 

      Projected / Actual

Konerko 27.1 / 48.6

Iguchi 20.2 / 23.6

Uribe 17.4 / -0.4

Thome 16.5 / 64.8

Anderson 14.0 / -7.6

Pierzynski 12.3 / 18.7

Crede 9.0 / 22.6

Dye 7.9 / 64.3

Podsednik 2.6 / -9.2

 

Ozuna -6.8 / 5.9

Gload 4.3 / 4.8

Mackowiak 4.2 / 8.6

Cintron / 3.6

Alomar / -2.5

Widger / -6.0

 

Projected / Actual

Vazquez 39.9 / 23.1

Buehrle 39.6 / 15.2

Garcia 31.1 / 27.4

Contreras 25.3 / 32.5

Garland 23.3 / 29.1

McCarthy 21.3 / 11.3

Cotts 8.0 / 3.7

Jenks 7.0 / 16.9

Tracey -11.6 / 2.5

Thornton / 16.1

MacDougal / 11.8

Riske / 7.5

Logan / -6.4

Politte / -9.4

 

Somewhat surprising, Buehrle was the worst underachiever with a (-24.4), followed by Anderson (-21.6), Uribe (-17.0), Vazquez (-16.8), and Podsednik (-11.8).

 

 

 

Dye exceeded his projections by a whopping 56.4. Thome exceeded his by 48.3.

 

 

 

The worst offensive player was Podsednik with a (-9.2). To put just how bad that is into perspective, he ranked 1003rd out of 1028 players ranked.

 

 

 

It is pretty easy to see where the team needs to improve in the offseason.

Edited by RME JICO
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I love stats, but I find VORP to be nothing but a nuisance. The numbers have no real meaning, and seem counterintuitive in many respects.

 

For example, was Brandon McCarthy really an 11.2? The guy lost almost every key game he was put into down the stretch. Sure, Ozzie misused him more than any player on the club, but he also failed to perform on most of the occasions when he was used.

 

And is Juan Uribe really a negative player? I realize the guy NEVER walks, and his batting average is horrid. But he drove in more than 70 runs!! AJ Pierzynski, who had the three highest OBP players on the team hitting directly ahead of him nearly every game, didn't match that.

 

Plus, was Thornton almost as valuable as Bobby Jenks?? (16.1 v. 16.9) Really???

 

So, just take these numbers with a heavy dose of salt.

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QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Sep 27, 2006 -> 10:44 AM)
That data shows me how flawed the projection system is (PETCO?) and how little one show pay both money and attention to that crap.

PECOTA never projects anyone to hit like over .310 and over 35 homers, it takes into consideration that every player has the possibility of getting injured. For instance, lets say thome has a 1 in 3 chance of getting injured and missing most of the year. His projected totals go down by 1/3 to compensate. Its like vegas odds, they dont tell you what will happen, but tell you what has teh best odds of happening.

 

VORP IIRC does not take into account defensive stats either, which would raise uribe and anderson, but probably not to the point that they should still have had every day jobs...that is if you buy into any of these stats

Edited by daa84
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QUOTE(daa84 @ Sep 27, 2006 -> 10:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
PECOTA never projects anyone to hit like over .310 and over 35 homers, it takes into consideration that every player has the possibility of getting injured. For instance, lets say thome has a 1 in 3 chance of getting injured and missing most of the year. His projected totals go down by 1/3 to compensate. Its like vegas odds, they dont tell you what will happen, but tell you what has teh best odds of happening.

 

VORP IIRC does not take into account defensive stats either, which would raise uribe and anderson, but probably not to the point that they should still have had every day jobs...that is if you buy into any of these stats

Ok, so how exactly do they systematically determine the odds of a player being injured?

 

Vegas, like these stat sites (BP,) is all about suckering people for their money.

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QUOTE(daa84 @ Sep 27, 2006 -> 11:48 AM)
VORP IIRC does not take into account defensive stats either, which would raise uribe and anderson, but probably not to the point that they should still have had every day jobs...that is if you buy into any of these stats

Well, it would probably raise Uribe to being an everyday player, right? Anything over 0 is better than a replacement player, so as long as his d brings the vorp over 0, we'd probably be better sticking with Uribe.

 

I'm not so sure of that, but at least that's the theory, I believe.

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QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Sep 27, 2006 -> 10:57 AM)
Ok, so how exactly do they systematically determine the odds of a player being injured?

 

Vegas, like these stat sites (BP,) is all about suckering people for their money.

 

I must admit, I was a member for 3-months and I wasn't completley impressed. The articles were a good read, but you can find all of the good stuff on the DT Cards and the stuff on the PECOTA cards not needed for viewing.

 

PECOTA is still a very god projection system though.

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