In search of a new lead off hitter for next year

[VAfan]

Below is the ranking, by OPS, of the major league players who had 350 or more plate appearances this year in the lead off slot. You can see that Alfonso Soriano was first in OPS by a wide margin b/c no one else could come close to his power numbers. Yet he was also 4th in OBP.

 

But, perhaps critically for a White Sox offense that was paralyzed all year by left handed pitching, his splits suggest he could go a long way to solving this problem by himself.

 

vs. Left 162 35 49 10 1 12 23 29 1 42 19 6 .302 .411 .599 1.010

vs. Right 474 83 130 31 1 34 72 36 8 116 22 11 .274 .334 .559 .893

 

 

I think the White Sox should make a strong bid for Alfonso in the offseason. He proved he could be a capable left fielder. He hits best as a lead off man -- it seems to motivate him to play his best. We desperately need a new LF and lead off hitter. And Soriano has the speed that Ozzie craves.

 

If it means trading off one of our 5 starters (I'm not in favor of this, but I understand the Sox have a budget), it will probably be a worthy trade off.

 

If the bidding gets too rich for Soriano, then Gary Matthews Jr. is the guy we should target. He'll likely come a lot less expensively. Yet he also hit lefties at a very good clip.

 

vs. Left 134 25 43 13 1 7 19 15 0 24 1 3 .321 .382 .590 .971

vs. Right 472 76 148 30 5 12 60 43 4 73 8 4 .314 .372 .475 .847

 

His "weakness" is no stolen bases to speak of. To me, this is not that great of a handicap, but I'm sure it would be unacceptable to Ozzie.

 

 

By signing one of these guys -- both free agents who won't cost us any talent in trade -- we can answer two of our biggest problems from this season. If I were KW, I would put adding one of these players at the top of my offseason list.

 

***************

 

Sortable Batting

RK PLAYER TEAM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB BA OBP SLG OPS

1 Alfonso Soriano Was 541 102 159 38 2 39 81 38 16 58 .294 .368 .588 .956

2 Grady Sizemore Cle 635 132 184 52 11 27 74 22 4 77 .290 .376 .534 .910

3 Reed Johnson Tor 430 77 140 31 2 11 48 6 2 32 .326 .395 .484 .879

4 Gary Matthews Jr. Tex 605 101 191 43 6 19 79 9 7 58 .316 .375 .501 .876

5 Jose Reyes NYM 635 119 192 30 17 19 80 63 17 49 .302 .353 .493 .846

6 Johnny Damon NYY 578 112 166 35 4 23 77 24 10 65 .287 .359 .481 .840

7 Rafael Furcal LA 618 110 190 30 9 15 61 37 12 68 .307 .375 .458 .833

8 Jimmy Rollins Phi 647 122 183 43 6 25 77 36 4 56 .283 .341 .484 .825

9 Hanley Ramirez Fla 513 100 148 39 10 11 48 41 14 49 .288 .354 .468 .822

10 Kevin Youkilis Bos 387 73 111 26 1 9 47 3 1 63 .287 .387 .429 .816

11 David DeJesus KC 442 76 132 34 4 7 48 6 3 38 .299 .367 .441 .808

12 Curtis Granderson Det 553 84 149 31 8 16 62 8 5 64 .269 .346 .441 .787

13 Ichiro Suzuki Sea 678 105 217 20 7 8 47 44 2 48 .320 .368 .406 .774

14 Brian Roberts Bal 545 83 158 33 3 10 55 35 7 54 .290 .351 .417 .768

15 Jamey Carroll Col 363 68 107 18 4 3 29 6 8 43 .295 .370 .391 .761

16 Dave Roberts SD 472 75 139 18 13 2 42 46 6 46 .294 .359 .400 .759

17 Ryan Freel Cin 429 61 115 28 2 8 24 33 11 52 .268 .359 .399 .758

18 Craig Biggio Hou 352 53 93 25 0 11 38 2 0 20 .264 .310 .429 .739

19 Juan Pierre ChC 667 82 196 32 13 3 38 56 19 32 .294 .333 .394 .728

20 Jason Kendall Oak 368 59 112 16 0 0 31 8 3 39 .304 .378 .348 .726

21 Randy Winn SF 520 77 136 32 4 11 51 9 7 45 .262 .324 .402 .726

22 Luis Castillo Min 386 54 114 14 5 1 29 21 8 37 .295 .355 .365 .721

23 Marcus Giles Atl 453 71 115 23 2 8 49 10 4 53 .254 .339 .366 .705

24 David Eckstein StL 489 68 144 17 1 2 23 7 6 30 .294 .351 .346 .696

25 Scott Podsednik CWS 498 82 129 27 6 3 43 40 18 51 .259 .328 .355 .683

26 Craig Counsell Ari 331 48 87 13 4 2 25 13 7 24 .263 .326 .344 .670

27 Chone Figgins LAA 532 77 134 18 5 5 48 44 14 57 .252 .323 .333 .656

[RockRaines]

Both are terrible options. Soriano is going to cost an arm and a leg, and Mathews has had ONE good season.

[CWSGuy406]

I see the Gary Matthews Jr calls have begun.

 

Two terms come to mind when thinking about him: fluke, and career year.

 

Guy just turned 32 years old. Just what we need, another aging player signed to a big contract.

Edited September 28, 2006 by CWSGuy406

[Kalapse]

Gary Mathews average season through age 30 (2005):

 G   AB   H   2B   3B   HR   SB   CS   K   BB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS

104 310  77   16   2    8    8    3   65   36  .249  .327  .397  .723

Super.

[ptatc]

I don't believe Soriano will play the outfield for a new team. He will sign where they promise him he can hit more HRs than any other 2B.

[shawnhillegas]

People love to think we have an unlimited payroll dont they. Lets sign Jason Schmidt too.

[jackie hayes]

Why are we just applying the fluke label to Matthews? Soriano's usual obp is .300-.340. This year he puts up a .360 and the highest slugging percentage of his life, good for him. But I'm not too enthused by a .280/.320/.510 line in Soriano's glorious return to the AL, not for $15 million. And it's gonna cost damn near that sum.

Edited September 28, 2006 by jackie hayes

[daa84]

if we are looking to fill LF and CF, im assuming that 1 of them will come internally, from a competition of BA, fields, sweeney, maybe mack if its for LF.....the other is a guy i wanted to see at the deadline, adn thats eric byrnes.....he hit his 25th homer of the year and went 25/25 this year...hes also a grinder and ozzie and KWs type of guy

[SoxAce]

Both are terrible options.

 

 

^^^^^^^^^

[TheBlackSox8]

if we are looking to fill LF and CF, im assuming that 1 of them will come internally, from a competition of BA, fields, sweeney, maybe mack if its for LF.....the other is a guy i wanted to see at the deadline, adn thats eric byrnes.....he hit his 25th homer of the year and went 25/25 this year...hes also a grinder and ozzie and KWs type of guy

that's interesting....i overlooked the guy. He also is pretty good in left field too. But almost anybody is an upgrade from the '06 Pods

[greg775]

I don't think Soriano is a "terrible option" unless you are solely talking about the

money factor.

He would have been a big pickup at the all star break.

Impossible to second guess KW, cause we had a great record at the time, but in

hindsight, he would have been incredible pickup.

[witesoxfan]

that's interesting....i overlooked the guy. He also is pretty good in left field too. But almost anybody is an upgrade from the '06 Pods

 

He's pretty much one of the worst defensive outfielders in the league from all I've heard. Gets horrible reads on almost every ball hit at him, and makes routine plays look extremely difficult.

[VAfan]

I'm not averse to getting ripped on this board, and I would agree there are drawbacks to both Soriano and Matthews Jr. But all who have responded to this thread I'm sure would agree keeping Scott Podsednik for another season is NOT AN OPTION. Accordingly, if you have a better plan for LF and lead off, LET'S HEAR IT.

 

I'm not strongly wedded to any of the offseason ideas I've posted over the last few days. I just want to push the debate.

 

Aside from fixing the starting pitching problem and strengthening the bullpen, getting a lead off hitter that can hit righties AND lefties and score well over 100 runs (with Dye, Thome and Konerko behind him) has to be the biggest offseason priority of the Sox. Wouldn't all of you agree? So let's hear your ideas.

 

-- One thing I might add that I put in the Carl Crawford thread. Please evaluate how your guy hits as a lead off man. Crawford's splits suggest he SUCKS as a lead off hitter, but excels in the #2 hole.

Edited September 28, 2006 by VAfan

[Balta1701]

-- One thing I might add that I put in the Carl Crawford thread. Please evaluate how your guy hits as a lead off man. Crawford's splits suggest he SUCKS as a lead off hitter, but excels in the #2 hole.

In 2006, Carl Crawford got exactly 87 at bats in the leadoff spot. He hit .250. He did in fact do most of his damage in the 2 hole, you are correct.

 

However, in 2003-2005, Carl Crawford got 1461 at bats in the leadoff spot. He put up a .294 .325 .430 .755. And his numbers have gradually improved every year as well.

[LVSoxFan]

VAFan has got the right idea, though, for sure. We NEED a leadoff speedster to get back to our 2005 gameplan.

 

Is it just me, or did Gooch seem to hit better when Pods got on base, and struggle more this year when he wasn't?

 

Either way, I want to see slap-hitters, baserunners and those kind of players in the lineup. I've had enough of home runs and feast-or-famine offense.

[CanOfCorn]

Alright...let me throw a name out there:

 

Melky Cabrera.

 

Hit .280, OBP .361

 

Has a little pop, can play some defense, is a switch hitter and stole 12 bases this year. OH, and played mostly LF.

 

He's young, he's cheap, he's buried behind Matsui, Damon, Abreu, Wilson (if they keep him) and Sheffield (if they keep him).

 

AND, the Yankees have the $$ to take on a high salary pitcher who, by the way, the White Sox have. We can even give them some money to cover. Maybe Cabrera and Proctor for either Garcia or Vazquez and $ or a prospect? Just a thought.

[fathom]

Alright...let me throw a name out there:

 

Melky Cabrera.

 

Hit .280, OBP .361

 

Has a little pop, can play some defense, is a switch hitter and stole 12 bases this year. OH, and played mostly LF.

 

He's young, he's cheap, he's buried behind Matsui, Damon, Abreu, Wilson (if they keep him) and Sheffield (if they keep him).

 

AND, the Yankees have the $$ to take on a high salary pitcher who, by the way, the White Sox have. We can even give them some money to cover. Maybe Cabrera and Proctor for either Garcia or Vazquez and $ or a prospect? Just a thought.

 

Yankees won't trade him. They're trying to keep guys like him and Hughes, so they'll have cheap replacements once some of these big contracts expire like Sheffield.

[santo=dorf]

Oh I'm sure the Yankees would LOVE to have Javy Vazquez back.

 

I wouldn't mind a platoon of Byrnes/Mack in the #1 spot, of course Ozzie would f*** it up by playing both guys everyday and having them swith the LF and CF position every now and then.

Edited September 28, 2006 by santo=dorf

[CanOfCorn]

Yankees won't trade him. They're trying to keep guys like him and Hughes, so they'll have cheap replacements once some of these big contracts expire like Sheffield.

 

Abreu is signed thru next year.

Damon thru 2009

Matsui thru 2009.

 

I'm just saying, if we gave them pitching...and maybe an OF prospect or Brian Anderson...yah never know.

[WHITESOXRANDY]

Think about how much better our pitching would have been this year if we had Soriano.

[fathom]

Think about how much better our pitching would have been this year if we had Soriano.

 

Yeah...since it's not like having his bat during the 2nd half of the year might have sparked an offense that hit the wall with about 40 games left in the season. If we would have acquired Soriano at the deadline, I honestly believe that we make the playoffs. Our pitching stunk for about 80 pct of this season, but they pitched well enough down the stretch (starters) that we could have stayed with the Twins/Tigers.

[NorthSideSox72]

People here want to spend a ton on both LF and SS, and trade BMac. But money-wise, that ain't happenin'.

 

More realistically, think like you have a financial stake in the business, and that you have a budget to work with. Better to move one of the expensive starting 5 than BMac. And you probably won't be able to spend HUGE money on both LF and SS. So, with that in mind...

 

Trade Contreras or Garcia. Also send off Pods and Uribe. Consider moving Fields as well.

 

In trying to acquire new LF and SS, spend big money on one of those, for someone with a high OBP and who plays solid D. The other, go cheap...

 

SS: Best available on the market, use some of the above as trade bait.

LF: Ross Gload

 

If you lose the 9M per year from Garcia/Contreras (replaced by BMac), and a few more million from Uribe and Pods (replaced by ??? and Gload)... That leaves you with 14M or so to play with per year for a SS and some bullpen help. Sounds pretty good to me.

 

The SS? Furcal. Yeah, he's owed 13M next two years. But guess what? That is just KW's type, like Thome - negotiate LAD out of some cash. Pay maybe 9 or the 13M, and throw in Fields. So...

 

Your lineup would be:

 

Furcal, SS

Gload, LF

Dye, RF

Thome, DH

PK, 1B

AJ, C

Crede, 3B

Iguchi, 2B

Anderson, CF

 

You just increased OBP by a lot (and added speed), maybe lost a bit at SS on defense (about even in LF), and freed up money for the bullpen.

 

So since you are all so good at it... tell me what's wrong with my idea!

 

EDIT: If Gload struggles in LF next season, that gives a chance for Owens or Sweeney.

Edited September 28, 2006 by NorthSideSox72

[Balta1701]

Abreu is signed thru next year.

Damon thru 2009

Matsui thru 2009.

 

I'm just saying, if we gave them pitching...and maybe an OF prospect or Brian Anderson...yah never know.

I would not trade Brian Anderson for Melky Cabrera. I wouldn't even consider it.

[WHITESOXRANDY]

QUOTE(fathom @ Sep 28, 2006 -> 01:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah...since it's not like having his bat during the 2nd half of the year might have sparked an offense that hit the wall with about 40 games left in the season. If we would have acquired Soriano at the deadline, I honestly believe that we make the playoffs. Our pitching stunk for about 80 pct of this season, but they pitched well enough down the stretch (starters) that we could have stayed with the Twins/Tigers.

 

 

 

I definitely disagree. We don't make the playoffs with Soriano. We will finish 6 or 7 games out of the playoffs and he wouldn't have won that many for us. Plus,what would we have ha dto give up ? McCarthy plus ? Then, he leaves via free agency.

 

If KW did that and we didn't go all the way, everyone would be all over him.

[NorthSideSox72]

Actually the Furcal idea isn't a bad one. If he only has two more years left, even if it is a bad contract, its not like your tied down for the next 4 or 5 years.

 

Not sure I like giving Gload the nod in LF. Reminds me of the Jason Micheals situation this season with the Tribe. Michaels put up great numbers in a limited roles through out his career, but when he get a starting job, like many predicted, he put up average numbers.

 

Also im not sure how much $$ you really need for the pen. The pen needs work, no doubt, but im not sure if it will cost us alot to fix...

You could be right about Gload. On the other hand, his career and 2006 numbers against lefties are just as good as against righties (higher OPS in fact), and that is the extra exposure he'd get offensively. My only concern with Gload is defense - but then, he's replacing Podsednik.