Rebuild or Reload?

[BamaDoc]

How many of our players had below average years and how many had above or career years. Dye and Pablo may be the only career year players. If the players revert to their norm where would we be? A normal Buehrle year and we are right in it this year. I am begining to think that I am crazy but several of our players who had bad years that everyone talks of trading for good prospects may in reality have little value. Do you keep Pods and bring in competition or a platoon partner using the logic that he can't possibly suck this bad next year? Uribe and the team in general need to be reached/taught/worked on going with the pitch.

 

If you think our players revert to normal, then you may only need a tweak to the lineup. I still am enamored with Ichiro in right( moving Dye to left). Ichiro is in the last year of contract and thus may not require as much. I am not in a total rebuild mode. We are still a talented team providing we don't have significant pitcher injuries of which we are unaware.

[greasywheels121]

Reload.

 

/thread

[RockRaines]

Reload, next question.

[VAfan]

Reload.

 

1. Keep the 5 starters unless someone makes us an offer we can't refuse. Use BMac as a long-reliever/spot starter -- a role he was rarely used in this season -- to reduce the workload on our starters.

 

2. Sign Soriano or Matthews Jr. to replace Pods.

 

3. Bring up Sweeney to platoon with Anderson in CF. (Let Ozuna go.)

 

4. Find a right-handed hitting DH to give Thome a rest against lefties. (Let Gload go.) (If we would actually use him, I'd strongly consider making Josh Fields this guy.)

 

5. If Hermanson's back is okay, re-sign him to an incentive-laden deal (his $500K buyout would become the base, and the balance of his option would be in terms of performance incentives). Bullpen would be: Jenks, MacDougal, Thornton, Cotts, BMac, Hermanson. (Let Riske walk.) Though Hermy may not be perfectly reliable, we need that veteran presence down there.

 

6. Find a right-handed hitting backup catcher that can hit lefties and/or play solid defense.

 

Win 2007 World Series!

[fathom]

Reload.

 

1. Keep the 5 starters unless someone makes us an offer we can't refuse. Use BMac as a long-reliever/spot starter -- a role he was rarely used in this season -- to reduce the workload on our starters.

 

2. Sign Soriano or Matthews Jr. to replace Pods.

 

3. Bring up Sweeney to platoon with Anderson in CF. (Let Ozuna go.)

 

4. Find a right-handed hitting DH to give Thome a rest against lefties. (Let Gload go.) (If we would actually use him, I'd strongly consider making Josh Fields this guy.)

 

5. If Hermanson's back is okay, re-sign him to an incentive-laden deal (his $500K buyout would become the base, and the balance of his option would be in terms of performance incentives). Bullpen would be: Jenks, MacDougal, Thornton, Cotts, BMac, Hermanson. (Let Riske walk.) Though Hermy may not be perfectly reliable, we need that veteran presence down there.

 

6. Find a right-handed hitting backup catcher that can hit lefties and/or play solid defense.

 

Win 2007 World Series!

 

So we're going to have a payroll around 120 million?

[Balta1701]

Reload.

 

1. Keep the 5 starters unless someone makes us an offer we can't refuse. Use BMac as a long-reliever/spot starter -- a role he was rarely used in this season -- to reduce the workload on our starters.

 

2. Sign Soriano or Matthews Jr. to replace Pods.

 

3. Bring up Sweeney to platoon with Anderson in CF. (Let Ozuna go.)

 

4. Find a right-handed hitting DH to give Thome a rest against lefties. (Let Gload go.) (If we would actually use him, I'd strongly consider making Josh Fields this guy.)

 

5. If Hermanson's back is okay, re-sign him to an incentive-laden deal (his $500K buyout would become the base, and the balance of his option would be in terms of performance incentives). Bullpen would be: Jenks, MacDougal, Thornton, Cotts, BMac, Hermanson. (Let Riske walk.) Though Hermy may not be perfectly reliable, we need that veteran presence down there.

 

6. Find a right-handed hitting backup catcher that can hit lefties and/or play solid defense.

 

Win 2007 World Series!

Those are some honestly poor ideas all around.

 

1. BMac showed today why he is a.) so much more valuable as a starter and b.) so much better as a starter. He should be our #4-#5 starter next year. No questions asked.

 

2. Soriano? If we free up the $ either through the ticket sales this year or by trading a starter, I could live with that. Matthews Jr. is honestly a very poor option to me. He will get more $$ because of his dominant season this year...he's 32 already, he has had 1 great year...he's got a real chance of being another Adrian Beltre in terms of not earning the contract he'll sign.

 

3. Ryan Sweeney should not be used as a platoon player. Ryan Sweeney should be either given a full time starting spot in the big leagues or given a full time starting spot in AAA. Do not screw up these young talents we do have by limiting their playing time. Similarly, Brian Anderson should start 150+ games next season barring injury.

 

4. Josh Fields is probably not ready to swing a bat in the big leagues. Josh Fields will probably perfom like Anderson if he comes up now...struggling for a long time. As a platoon player with Thome, he'd be in even worse shape, especially considering he'd be facing Santana, Lee, Sabathia, etc. all the time.

 

5. Neal Cotts is a very risky option. It may do us well to trade him right now. We also have Logan as a potential option...we have 3 lefties for 2 spots. This may be something that is not resolved until the end of Spring Training. Hermanson is an even more risky option. As a last guy in the bullpen, he's not a terrible idea, but that's if he's only the 4th righty out there. Which means we need to have Jenks, MMac, someone better out of the pen than McCarthy before we use Hermanson. He should only get mopup duty of he stays. Charlie Haeger is looking like a non-terrible option for the pen right now...but I don't want Haegar and Hermy. Too risky.

 

BMac is a dominant starter and a terrible reliever. Why we'd even consider making him a reliever again i can't even fathom. We need to find 1 right handed reliever somewhere.

 

6. We had a long discussion of this in the game threaed. I think Stewart works on this. He will hit poorly. But he can play good defense, and he is cheap. The money we would spend on a backup catcher would be much better spent on a new LF or on a new right handed relief pitcher.

Edited September 28, 2006 by Balta1701

[VAfan]

So we're going to have a payroll around 120 million?

 

As I said in my Soriano thread, if we have to drop a $10 million contract of a starter to add him, it would probably be worth the trade off, unless Soriano gets ridiculous in his contract demands. In that case, sign Matthews and keep the starter.

 

(Can you pick the starter that needs to go? Contreras was our best starter early. Garland was our most consistent starter for the longest stretch. Garcia has had better starts down the stretch than any of the others. Vazquez, though a head case, is actually a great pitcher through 5 innings. Buehrle has been the most consistent over the longest stretch.)

[Balta1701]

(Can you pick the starter that needs to go? Contreras was our best starter early. Garland was our most consistent starter for the longest stretch. Garcia has had better starts down the stretch than any of the others. Vazquez, though a head case, is actually a great pitcher through 5 innings. Buehrle has been the most consistent over the longest stretch.)

If Mark Buehrle's contract can not be extended...it has to be him. The White Sox can not afford to lose him with no compensation at the end of 2007. If he's not extended or traded...if Mark does have a great season next year, then he may not be affordable for us, if he's bad again next year, then his trade value may drop dramatically.

 

If Buehrle can be extended...then it's whoever nets the White Sox the best package.

[VAfan]

Those are some honestly poor ideas all around.

 

1. BMac showed today why he is a.) so much more valuable as a starter and b.) so much better as a starter. He should be our #4-#5 starter next year. No questions asked.

 

2. Soriano? If we free up the $ either through the ticket sales this year or by trading a starter, I could live with that. Matthews Jr. is honestly a very poor option to me. He will get more $$ because of his dominant season this year...he's 32 already, he has had 1 great year...he's got a real chance of being another Adrian Beltre in terms of not earning the contract he'll sign.

 

3. Ryan Sweeney should not be used as a platoon player. Brian Anderson should start 150+ games next season barring injury.

 

4. Josh Fields is probably not ready to swing a bat in the big leagues. Josh Fields will probably perfom like Anderson if he comes up now...struggling for a long time. As a platoon player with Thome, he'd be in even worse shape, especially considering he'd be facing Santana, Lee, Sabathia, etc. all the time.

 

5. Neal Cotts is a very risky option. It may do us well to trade him right now. We also have Logan as a potential option...we have 3 lefties for 2 spots. This may be something that is not resolved until the end of Spring Training. Hermanson is an even more risky option. As a last guy in the bullpen, he's not a terrible idea, but that's if he's only the 4th righty out there. Which means we need to have Jenks, MMac, someone better out of the pen than McCarthy before we use Hermanson. He should only get mopup duty of he stays. Charlie Haeger is looking like a non-terrible option for the pen right now...but I don't want Haegar and Hermy. Too risky.

 

BMac is a dominant starter and a terrible reliever. Why we'd even consider making him a reliever again i can't even fathom. We need to find 1 right handed reliever somewhere.

 

6. We had a long discussion of this in the game threaed. I think Stewart works on this. He will hit poorly. But he can play good defense, and he is cheap. The money we would spend on a backup catcher would be much better spent on a new LF or on a new right handed relief pitcher.

 

These are fair comments, but I disagree with most of them.

 

My problem with replacing a starter with BMac is -- which one?? (See previous post.) And what do you do for depth if you get an injury? (We didn't have any this year other than Contreras's short stint on the DL.)

BMac's problem is he got jerked around and misused by Ozzie. He should have started the 6th inning of every game started by Javy Vazquez. He also could have really helped if Ozzie had yanked the other starters when they got in trouble instead of always leaving them in for 100 pitches. My other problem with trading one of the starters is they will likely bring very little in return since all (except Garland) are coming off career-worst years. (In hindsight, I would have been happy if we'd never made the Vazquez trade (though at the time, neither Contreras nor Garland had re-signed) and still had Chris Young. But I'm not sure I'd trade Vazquez now since we aren't going to get a Chris Young back.)

 

I greatly prefer Soriano to Matthews Jr. too. But not if his demands are going to be $15 million/year.

 

Sweeney as the platoon player would actually stand to get more than 1/2 of the ABs. Frankly, I'd make this a contest and may the best man win. Brian Anderson is not a lock to be a major league hitter and I wouldn't bet another season on him coming around. Certainly, BA is the better defensive player, however, and if he ends up outplaying Sweeney, it won't stunt either one's development.

 

I said I'd consider Fields, but I'm willing to drop this idea. There are some pretty cheap guys out there who can hit lefties well but can't field. One of those guys would be worth adding instead of Gload. Thome probably shouldn't play more than 130 games given his second-half drop off this year and pathetic sub-.400 slugging against lefties.

 

I haven't seen Stewart enough to judge whether he can be the righty-backup, but he's certainly the cheapest option.

 

As for Hermanson, what's the risk to the deal I proposed? He costs us $500K to boot out the door. If everything on top of that is incentive, then if he comes up lame, we haven't lost anything. But if stays healthy enough to give us 50-60 appearances, I'd say he's probably better than a lot of other options.

 

As for Cotts, set up relievers are like mutual funds. If you bet on the guys who finished high this year, they are likely to finish low next year. Is he really done as a pitcher? I think he has as much chance of bouncing back as our 5 starters. I'd take him over Logan forever.

 

**************

 

At the end of the day, we probably aren't that far apart. I assume we both agree we need a new lead off hitter who can hit lefties as well as righties. We need to get the rotation to bounce back. We need better depth (we had a huge hole against lefty pitchers this year). And we need to strengthen the bullpen. Some might think we need a new SS, though I don't. (I'm willing to give Uribe another chance given his 20+ HRs and 70+ RBI and still very good defense).

[Balta1701]

These are fair comments, but I disagree with most of them.

 

My problem with replacing a starter with BMac is -- which one?? (See previous post.) And what do you do for depth if you get an injury? (We didn't have any this year other than Contreras's short stint on the DL.)

BMac's problem is he got jerked around and misused by Ozzie. He should have started the 6th inning of every game started by Javy Vazquez. He also could have really helped if Ozzie had yanked the other starters when they got in trouble instead of always leaving them in for 100 pitches. My other problem with trading one of the starters is they will likely bring very little in return since all (except Garland) are coming off career-worst years. (In hindsight, I would have been happy if we'd never made the Vazquez trade (though at the time, neither Contreras nor Garland had re-signed) and still had Chris Young. But I'm not sure I'd trade Vazquez now since we aren't going to get a Chris Young back.)

Happily, the White Sox actually have what I would consider right now 8 starters who will be at AAA or higher next year who are Major League quality. The ideal person to fill the BMac role right now looks like Haeger. He's done his job quite well in this stint out of the bullpen, including a performance today. Beyond that...we also have Broadway as a potential emergency backup. He's basically going to be in the same role Haeger was in this year....starting off in AAA, he's already pitched a few games there, and he's going to be spending the whole year there next season.

 

Sweeney as the platoon player would actually stand to get more than 1/2 of the ABs. Frankly, I'd make this a contest and may the best man win. Brian Anderson is not a lock to be a major league hitter and I wouldn't bet another season on him coming around. Certainly, BA is the better defensive player, however, and if he ends up outplaying Sweeney, it won't stunt either one's development.

 

I said I'd consider Fields, but I'm willing to drop this idea. There are some pretty cheap guys out there who can hit lefties well but can't field. One of those guys would be worth adding instead of Gload. Thome probably shouldn't play more than 130 games given his second-half drop off this year and pathetic sub-.400 slugging against lefties.

See, the problem is, having guys platoon does actually stunt their development. Look at Brian Anderson this year. The fact that Rob Mackowiak has stolen so many of his at bats has not only made his numbers on the season look worse, but it's significantly slowed down Anderson's development.

 

Ryan Sweeney is an excellent talent. But he has a lot of things he can learn...most importantly, he needs to develop a better power stroke. He is not going to do that nearly as much as he can if he gets 500+ plate appearances, even in the minors. And furthermore, bringing him up would also start his arbitration clock...something that I don't know if is to our advantage yet.

 

Brian Anderson had a decent 2nd half. He would have had a better 2nd half had he gotten more at bats. He had a higher batting average and OPS than Mackowiak in the 2nd half, by a pretty large margin. He has done an excellent job of improving. Add in winterball, and I think he's going to finally be where we need him to be next year even if he doesn't improve at all from right here.

Edited September 28, 2006 by Balta1701

[greg775]

Similarly, Brian Anderson should start 150+ games next season barring injury.

He should?

What is Brian hitting, .230? He never knocks in a run.

I know ... he was misused by Ozzie and bats low in the order.

BA is a big question mark right now. He reminds of that Langerhansengretel in Atlanta.

Just cause you are a good prospect doesn't mean you'll pan out, see Jeremy Reed.

GO SOX!

[Balta1701]

He should?

What is Brian hitting, .230? He never knocks in a run.

I know ... he was misused by Ozzie and bats low in the order.

BA is a big question mark right now. He reminds of that Langerhansengretel in Atlanta.

Just cause you are a good prospect doesn't mean you'll pan out, see Jeremy Reed.

GO SOX!

Have you actually looked at BA's stats? His line in the 2nd half is .270 .316 .414 .730. He was a significantly better hitter than Mackowiak in the 2nd half. And all season he was better against right handers...which means that IMO, his numbers would have been even better if Ozzie would have let him face those scary dominant right handers like Carlos Silva in the 2nd half as well.

[whitesoxfan101]

B-Mac in Buehrle's rotation spot, new LF and SS, bullpen help, the end. So reload I guess.

[greg775]

He was a significantly better hitter than Mackowiak in the 2nd half.

 

Yes, but I'm not a Mackowiak fan either.

I know he hit better the second half. Call me a moron but sometimes I go by what

I see. The guy never knocks in a run and has so many horses*** at bats.

I hope he has a future. I won't give up on him cause it takes time sometimes.

Crede proved that.

But it will be a gamble to give BA the job again next year I think.

I'm not that crazy about Pierre, either. I guess given a choice between JP and BA,

I'd take brian.

I just hope he can start to bang the ball around the park and hit with authority.

You don't argue, do you, that BA has some (majority) abysmal at bats?

[SoxAce]

2007- Reload

 

2008- (barring if we miss the playoffs again) Rebuild

[Balta1701]

You don't argue, do you, that BA has some (majority) abysmal at bats?

Yes, Brian has some miserable at bats. But what I liked about him this season is that the number of those at bats went down dramatically as the season went on. He actually learned how to overcome some of his weaknesses. He started hitting a lot of rockets in June, July, and August, at least when he was actually playing he did. He beat some very good pitchers for doubles and looked very good in the process. He still has some poor at bats, and he has room for improvement - esp. with both stealing bases and hitting for power. But he's well on the way there.

[Rowand44]

A Kenny Williams team with an 100 million dollar payroll will never be rebuilding.

Edited September 28, 2006 by Rowand44

[greg775]

Good post balta.

Well, to me, it sounds like you think he should get those 150 games next year.

I hope if indeed he is a plum prospect and future stud Oz gives him the job.

I am not thrilled about Pierre.

[beautox]

As I said in my Soriano thread, if we have to drop a $10 million contract of a starter to add him, it would probably be worth the trade off, unless Soriano gets ridiculous in his contract demands. In that case, sign Matthews and keep the starter.

 

(Can you pick the starter that needs to go? Contreras was our best starter early. Garland was our most consistent starter for the longest stretch. Garcia has had better starts down the stretch than any of the others. Vazquez, though a head case, is actually a great pitcher through 5 innings. Buehrle has been the most consistent over the longest stretch.)

 

GMJ = Tom Goodwin circa 1998 with less SB and more HR, no thank you let some other team bite, hes 32.

 

Soriano is an offense weapon but he gets CS 41% of the time and is on pace to SO 167 times this year, hes 30 and hes going to cost a ton and is going to want a good amount of years. If Furcal got 3 / 39 i expect alot more for Soriano.

 

Our lead off hitter is going to have to come from SS or LF

 

from SS i would love to see Michael Young or Jimmy Rollins

 

and for LF i wouldn't mind Crisp or an inhouse opition

 

if the lead off hitter comes from LF i wouldn't be against keep juan, but for the love of god get Mr. Hriniak back working with uribe, that foot tap last season was huge.

 

As for our SP deal one potentially two of them to land the peices for '07 and restock our farm next year. Does anyone know how the '07 draft is looking?

[GreatScott82]

hmmm lets see. not even a year since we won the world series, we just set the ballpark record in attendance and revenue.... yea the thought of rebuilding better be put to rest. enough said.

[Colorado Sox Fan]

(Can you pick the starter that needs to go?)

 

What seemed like a pretty cut and dried decision a few weeks ago: dump Garcia, Vasquez or both...has become muddled, hasn't it? KW has extremely tough decisions to make with the starting staff and almost certainly will get it wrong. How can you predict whether MB will regain his form, Contreres will bounce back from injuries, the Garcia we saw at the end of the year is the real deal, Vasquez can be relied on and whether Jon will be April Jon, August Jon or September Jon. I don't have confidence in any of the starters, yet any of them could turn in very productive performances next year. I can't believe how the entire starting staff is in turmoil for next year.

[witesoxfan]

I can't believe how the entire starting staff is in turmoil for next year.

 

I am going to go ahead and quote the great mind of Forrest Gump...

 

s*** happens

[knightni]

If the Sox are smart, they'll trade Contreras.

 

The 4 other pitchers have more years left in them than Jose.

[Drew]

I'd put all five up and see where the offers are.

 

The two I'd most want to deal would be Contreras and Garcia, because of age and because of inconsistency, respectively. The one that I think would garner the most interest and best package would be Buehrle.

 

I also think Buehrle has the best chance at recovering from what was a disastrous second half. Vazquez has endured his Contreras period and I'm hoping he will have turned the corner and we'll see in '07 what we have seen in the second half with greater consistency.

 

Aside from Brandon McCarthy in the rotation, I don't know what you do with the other two spots. I'm not interested in Jason Schmidt with his health and age, although I'm not certain who's around that's legitimately available and good enough for nos. 4 and 5 if you deal Garcia and Contreras.

[southsider2k5]

So we're going to have a payroll around 120 million?

 

Quite possibly, yes. I really believe a payroll of $115-$125 million is very possible if season tickets stay sold out for 07.