A-Rod, what's the asking price

[beautox]

I will point out that Beckett pitched in a notorious pitchers park while Carlos has done what he has in a hitters park.

 

Fair enough he will be making 1/2 of his starts in the (Bronx#27), but he will have to pitch at the Rogers Centre(#7), Tropicana Field(#11), Fenway(#13), Camden Yards(#17) while facing a DH in a superior league. His ERA will go up .5-1.5 brining his ERA to 4-5.5, and i imagine his BB rate would stay the same while his SO rate would drop down a significant amount.

 

Park Factor Link

 

But do you really put Zambrano on the same level as Johan?

[Chisoxfn]

Fair enough he will be making 1/2 of his starts in the (Bronx#27), but he will have to pitch at the Rogers Centre(#7), Tropicana Field(#11), Fenway(#13), Camden Yards(#17) while facing a DH in a superior league. His ERA will go up .5-1.5 brining his ERA to 4-5.5, and i imagine his BB rate would stay the same while his SO rate would drop down a significant amount.

 

Park Factor Link

 

But do you really put Zambrano on the same level as Johan?

Yes and I'd be shocked if 99% of baseball exec's wouldn't do the same. I'm not saying he's as good as Johan (Johan's the best in baseball) but he's the premiere pitcher in the NL as far as I'm concerned and would be the 2nd best pitcher in the AL.

[santo=dorf]

Carlos isn't the best NL pitcher.

 

Carpenter, Clemens (yes him,) and Webb are better pitchers than him.

[beautox]

Yes and I'd be shocked if 99% of baseball exec's wouldn't do the same. I'm not saying he's as good as Johan (Johan's the best in baseball) but he's the premiere pitcher in the NL as far as I'm concerned and would be the 2nd best pitcher in the AL.

Your selling it, and im not buying it. Yes SOs are nice but not when your walking someone every other SO and then some 210Ks/115BB. In the AL; Halladay, Burnett, Verlander, Liriano, Sabathia, Bonderman, Kazmir and a lot more > Zambrano,

[CanOfCorn]

Manny is vastly superior to Pods in lf. The only major knock when it comes to Manny's defense is whether he tries. When he does try (which contrary to popular belief is most of the time) he's actually pretty darn solid out there. Now I don't know how he'd do having to cover a bit more ground (not having the monster) but he is very very good at getting off quick and accurate throws and actually throwing guys out.

 

I watched a lot of Manny in LF this past year and my opinion of his defense greatly changed and I now thing he's a better fielder than anyone gives him credit for.

 

Sorry...I don't buy it. He knew how to play the Monster. And people would run on him trying to stretch a single off the MOnster to a double. He doesn't have a good first step to the ball and he's not as fast as he once was (or lollygags around the outfield depending if there are shiny things around). He does have a good arm. No thanks...we don't need that kind of offense.

[ZoomSlowik]

Fair enough he will be making 1/2 of his starts in the (Bronx#27), but he will have to pitch at the Rogers Centre(#7), Tropicana Field(#11), Fenway(#13), Camden Yards(#17) while facing a DH in a superior league. His ERA will go up .5-1.5 brining his ERA to 4-5.5, and i imagine his BB rate would stay the same while his SO rate would drop down a significant amount.

 

Park Factor Link

 

But do you really put Zambrano on the same level as Johan?

 

On pure talent I think he is on the same level as Johan, but he is a head case that walks too many guys.

 

I think in the AL he'd post an ERA somewhere between about 3.75 and 4.25, with a WHIP in the high 1.2's and a similar strikeout total. That's roughly what C.C. Sabathia gives you, which is still pretty solid. I have a hard time seeing him post low-3 ERA's in the AL with that many walks though.

 

I can't put too much stock in his AL numbers because not only is that a rather limited sample size, it's against a lot of good hitting teams in some hitting-heavy parks. There's not a single Tampa Bay or Kansas City in there.

 

His numbers will suffer a bit going from the NL to the AL, but he's definitely better than guys like Beckett and Burnett, and he doesn't have anywhere near their injury history.

Edited October 17, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[VAfan]

Learning how to draw walks at the major league level is anything but "Easy."

 

Statheads love to point to ISoD at both the major league and minor league level to show how a player will always have the same amount of plate discipline.

 

If Crede went to the Yanks to draw walks, he'd probably hit .240 or so and be run out of town.

 

I'll confess I haven't done a statistical analysis of this, but I have to disagree about the walks. Crede's batting average went from .239 to .252, to .283 over the last three years, as his K's dropped from 81, to 66, to 58 over that span. Thus, he's obviously able to put the bat on the ball better and do more with it. This has given him a lot more confidence at the plate than he's ever had.

 

The next step for him would be to just lay off pitches out of the zone that he's been fouling off. I don't expect him to jump up to 80 BBs next season, but an upward progression to 70 over a couple of years shouldn't be that hard.

[DBAHO]

The Yakult Swallows are prepared to post Akinori Iwamura, sources told the Yomiuri Shimbun on Monday.

 

Iwamura has been asking for the opportunity to play in the majors for years, but the Swallows have refused to post him until now. The Padres, Indians, Phillies, Red Sox and Giants are among the clubs that could have some interest in the 27-year-old. He hit at least .300 with 30 homers in each of the last three seasons, topping out at 44 homers in 2004.

 

Crede and Garcia for A-Rod.

Contreras for Danks and Arias.

Danks and Fields for Crawford.

Sign Iwamura to take over at 3rd base.

 

So salary going out is (from this season);

Contreras - 8M

Crede - 2.675M

Garcia - 9M

Total = About 20M

 

Salary coming in (2007 salary);

A-Rod - 18M (could get that figure down to 15M if traded maybe?)

Crawford - 4M

Iwamura - Hard to say, maybe 5-6M for a few seasons?

Total = About 24M-28M

 

The thing is with this scenario though, our starters are basically down to Buehrle, Vazquez, Garland and B-Mac. So you'd have to sign a 5th starter or give it to a Lance Broadway or Charlie Haeger.

[nitetrain8601]

Crede and Garcia for A-Rod.

Contreras for Danks and Arias.

Danks and Fields for Crawford.

Sign Iwamura to take over at 3rd base.

 

So salary going out is (from this season);

Contreras - 8M

Crede - 2.675M

Garcia - 9M

Total = About 20M

 

Salary coming in (2007 salary);

A-Rod - 18M (could get that figure down to 15M if traded maybe?)

Crawford - 4M

Iwamura - Hard to say, maybe 5-6M for a few seasons?

Total = About 24M-28M

 

The thing is with this scenario though, our starters are basically down to Buehrle, Vazquez, Garland and B-Mac. So you'd have to sign a 5th starter or give it to a Lance Broadway or Charlie Haeger.

 

Which is what we don't want to do.

[DBAHO]

Which is what we don't want to do.

The last part of my scenario I assume you're saying?

[BobDylan]

I will point out that Beckett pitched in a notorious pitchers park while Carlos has done what he has in a hitters park.

 

I don't know if I'd go as far as to call Wrigley a hitters park. When that wind blows in, it's just as much a pitchers park as anywhere.

[3E8]

No it isn't. The leftfield power alley is under 360 ft, that's as short as you'll see. Rightfield power alley is 363 ft. Wrigley is pretty much a notorious hitter's park.

[nitetrain8601]

The last part of my scenario I assume you're saying?

 

Yep.

 

Oh yeah, does A-Rod have a no trade clause still? I thought he waived that right after he accepted a trade from the Rangers to the Yankees. Anyone got info on that and if he does have one, why would he come to the Sox?

[redandwhite]

According to everything I've read since this all became a possibility, he does infact have a no-trade clause.

[Soxbadger]

On basebeall tonight Philips said that he thought Angels and White Sox had much better packages to offer than the Cubs.

 

A-Rod also has a no trade clause, but I would assume if the Sox are offering SS and a place where he wont be booed every at bat hes going to take the trade.

 

Could be interesting if the Sox got A-rod, especially with the Cubs overtly trying to get him.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(VAfan @ Oct 17, 2006 -> 04:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'll confess I haven't done a statistical analysis of this, but I have to disagree about the walks. Crede's batting average went from .239 to .252, to .283 over the last three years, as his K's dropped from 81, to 66, to 58 over that span. Thus, he's obviously able to put the bat on the ball better and do more with it. This has given him a lot more confidence at the plate than he's ever had.

 

The next step for him would be to just lay off pitches out of the zone that he's been fouling off. I don't expect him to jump up to 80 BBs next season, but an upward progression to 70 over a couple of years shouldn't be that hard.

What about his walk rate? (PA/BB. The lower, the better.)

2004: 15.41

2005: 18.28

2006: 20.43

 

Yikes.

 

To put it in prospective, Thome had a PA/BB of 5.58 this season. I'm not saying Joe should walk 100 times in a season, but once every 5 games is atrocious.

 

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Oct 17, 2006 -> 08:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Crede and Garcia for A-Rod. Not Happening

Contreras for Danks and Arias. Why?

Danks and Fields for Crawford. Not happening

Sign Iwamura to take over at 3rd base. No thank you on the Japanese imports for postional spots where they play everyday. How did Nakamura work out for the Dodgers?

5-6M for a few seasons?

Total = About 24M-28M

 

The thing is with this scenario though, our starters are basically down to Buehrle, Vazquez, Garland and B-Mac. So you'd have to sign a 5th starter or give it to a Lance Broadway or Charlie Haeger. Which would bring back the nightmares of the 2004 season. Pass.

[Leonard Zelig]

No thank you on the Japanese imports for postional spots where they play everyday. How did Nakamura work out for the Dodgers?

 

I'm not suggesting we go after Iwamura, I know absolutley nothing about him. But do you remeber this one guy named Iguchi?

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(Leonard Zelig @ Oct 18, 2006 -> 12:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not suggesting we go after Iwamura, I know absolutley nothing about him. But do you remeber this one guy named Iguchi?

Yeah that came to me. Originally I was just thinking of the third base position. Iguchi filled a need. DBAH0 is creating a hole and then filling it with an unknown.

[EvilJester99]

What about a package of Kong and Garcia for A Rod? Gload could take over for Kong at 1st and A Rod would more than make up for Kong's offensive #'s. Plus the cash you save from dealing those 2 will be enough to cover A Rod. Just a thought... instead of making a huge hole at 3rd base.

[DBAHO]

Crede and Garcia for A-Rod. Not Happening

Contreras for Danks and Arias. Why?

Danks and Fields for Crawford. Not happening

Sign Iwamura to take over at 3rd base. No thank you on the Japanese imports for postional spots where they play everyday. How did Nakamura work out for the Dodgers?

5-6M for a few seasons?

Total = About 24M-28M

 

The thing is with this scenario though, our starters are basically down to Buehrle, Vazquez, Garland and B-Mac. So you'd have to sign a 5th starter or give it to a Lance Broadway or Charlie Haeger. Which would bring back the nightmares of the 2004 season. Pass

 

On these points you've made Santo;

1) Right now the Yanks prob wouldn't accept Crede and Garcia. But if the Angels won't include Ervin Santana in a deal, are the Yanks going to get a better offer from a team like the Cubs than the Crede and Garcia offer? Personally I don't think so.

2) Danks is a potential top of the rotation starter. Tampa Bay have said the only way they will deal Crawford is if they can get a potential top of the rotation starter back in return. Danks gives them that, and Fields will be a building block at 3rd for them. Arias gives you a future SS as well if he can pick it up at AAA next season, apparently he's pretty good defensively from what I've read IIRC.

3) How did Tadahito Iguchi work out for us? Consider Iguchi's OPS's from his last 4 seasons in Japan, .821, .740, 1.011 and .942, from age 26 to 29. In the 2 seasons with us he's put up a .780 OPS and a .774 OPS. Not great but that number could certainly go up if he was in a more run producing spot.

 

Now in the last 3 seasons, Iwamura has OPS's of .968, .946 and I couldn't find what he got this season (but I assume over .900 since he had another .300/30HR season). He's also a lefty bat to boot. Remember that we should be utilising the Japanese Market as much as possible considering the good reputation we have from having Shingo and Iguchi here. Iwamura's only 27 and coming into the prime of his career. It's something I think we should definitely look at if we're going to move Crede.

 

4) The 5th starter is obviously probably the big issue here. But I mean the Sox can always dip into the FA market and sign a stopgap if need be. Sign someone like Mark Mulder even though he may not start the season on a real incentive like deal for 1 season, and you can have a guy like Broadway start off the season for a month or 2.

 

What about a package of Kong and Garcia for A Rod? Gload could take over for Kong at 1st and A Rod would more than make up for Kong's offensive #'s. Plus the cash you save from dealing those 2 will be enough to cover A Rod. Just a thought... instead of making a huge hole at 3rd base.

I'd rather move Thome instead of Konerko, but that's just me, and I'm a big Jim Thome fan (who isn't the most popular Sox player on here over the past few months).

[Rowand44]

The problem with your scenario dbaho, is we just can't go into the season without a 5th starter. Also, out of the 3 sluggers Kong is the one I'd least like to move because of the fact imo he's more of a sure thing than Dye and Thome and he's signed at a very reasonable price over the next 4 years. Absolutely no reason to trade Konerko imo.

Edited October 18, 2006 by Rowand44

[EvilJester99]

While I agree, I would rather move Thome as well. The question is would the Yanks take a chance on him being thier 1st baseman?? Maybe a platoon of him and Giambi might work but I think they would rather have Kong...IMO

[DBAHO]

The problem with your scenario dbaho, is we just can't go into the season without a 5th starter. Also, out of the 3 sluggers Kong is the one I'd least like to move because of the fact imo he's more of a sure thing than Dye and Thome and he's signed at a very reasonable price over the next 4 years. Absolutely no reason to trade Konerko imo.

Well I mean you could always sign Pierre to play LF (gulp) and you don't have to move Contreras to the Rangers, so you have 5 starters that way. Instead you could try to move Fields to say pick up a very good reliever and a good young arm or 2.

 

e.g Fields for Carillo and Scott Cassidy

[Rowand44]

Well I mean you could always sign Pierre to play LF (gulp) and you don't have to move Contreras to the Rangers, so you have 5 starters that way. Instead you could try to move Fields to say pick up a very good reliever and a good young arm or 2.

 

e.g Fields for Carillo and Scott Cassidy

Well I will say one thing, I really hope we trade Fields this offseason. I don't think his value is going to be much higher and I want Joe around, I don't want Fields taking his spot as I just think it's going to take Josh a long time to adjust to major league pitching and I just don't see him being a great hitter either. The one thing you said in this thread that really sticks out to me is trading one of our starters to Texas. Whether it's for a John Danks or maybe a Michael Young. The Rangers are definitely an interesting team that I can see us matching up with pretty well. As far as the bullpen, I'd like us to trade for another right hander that could pitch late in a game(Linebrink or one of the Astros trio for example) and then, yes I'm joining this bandwagon, sign Kerry Wood to an incentive ladin deal if at all possible. I'd love to have Wood in our bullpen, the only thing that would scare me here is if Ozzie got some crazy ideas and wanted him to start eventually. Now obviously everything changes if we could actually trade for Alex, there's a lot of different options for our team because we got something that almost no one else has and that's 6 starting pitchers with at least some amount of trade value. Once again, it's going to be a fun offseason.

Edited October 18, 2006 by Rowand44

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(EvilJester99 @ Oct 18, 2006 -> 04:51 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

While I agree, I would rather move Thome as well. The question is would the Yanks take a chance on him being thier 1st baseman?? Maybe a platoon of him and Giambi might work but I think they would rather have Kong...IMO

Yes, a two left hand hitting platoon.

 

Thome and Konerko aren't waiving their NTC's to leave Chicago, let alone to go to New York. If the Sox thought Gload was a capable everyday first baseman, why did they re-sign Konerko last offseason?