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Kim regrets/sorry about test?


3 BeWareTheNewSox 5

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Oct 20, 2006 -> 07:26 AM)
He regrets pissing off everyone, not getting bribed to quit, and the test failing.

I think that's the key part... if I remember correctly, his missle tests also failed. So he has faulty nukes and nothing to deliver them and his actions that figured that out he pissed off the UN and some of the countries that stood up for him before, so yeah, he probably should do a little back tracking

 

I guess Clinton must have called him and straightned the whole thing out

Edited by SoxFan562004
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QUOTE(SoxFan562004 @ Oct 20, 2006 -> 05:48 AM)
I think that's the key part... if I remember correctly, his missle tests also failed. So he has faulty nukes and nothing to deliver them and his actions that figured that out he pissed off the UN and some of the countries that stood up for him before, so yeah, he probably should do a little back tracking

 

I guess Clinton must have called him and straightned the whole thing out

2 points...1, the long range (i.e. can hit the U.S.) missile failed, but the north still has workable missiles that can cover all of Japan, not to mention enough artillery in place to make Seoul vanish. And 2., yea it looks like they fizzled their first blast, which is pretty embarassing, but even a well placed Fizzle can still kill a few hundred thousand people if it hits Tokyo.

 

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Oct 20, 2006 -> 07:10 AM)
I am very very skeptical of this. My bet, he is trying to dump the sanctions but still work in secret.

The sanctions regime only holds if China and Russia are willing to enforce them in their entirety. The north is so closed off and so poor that they don't need a ton of imports or exports...he probably is betting that if they play a little nice with China, China will just stop enforcing them, and he's probably right.

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Actually, this is most likely China telling them to cool it or they will honor the sanctions.

 

Kim is walking a tightrope here. He needs the appearance of nuclear weapons to protect himself from what he views as outside aggression from states hostile to his regime (pretty much everyone but China - particularly Japan and the US) but at the same time, Kim can not forsake his entire foreign economy for the sake of this appearance of security.

 

Although I don't expect his proliferation of technology to necessarily stop, it will slow because the consequences he faces are dire to his INTERNAL security.

 

Kim's MO is brinksmanship. He dry humps the red line and when he realizes he can not take it any further, he pulls back. It's kind of the signature of pariah states. It's one of the reasons why what we say towards them can be very important.

 

I think of all the countries involved in six party talks, China understands this best. It wasn't bothered by one nuclear test, it probably already knew that it wasn't going to be terribly successful. But multiple tests would mean a power that China would have to deal with in a different way and one that isn't too pleasing to China. China has the power and ability to stop North Korea and did so.

 

But that's just my speculation.

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QUOTE(NUKE_CLEVELAND @ Oct 20, 2006 -> 03:59 PM)
You have to love how they are the ones setting off nukes and they then want US to make concessions to get them to talk again. Does he take us for complete morons?

Didn't we ask for concessions repeatedly before we'd have been willing to talk to them? Hasn't that been our policy for the last 6 years or so, diplomacy is not a means through which we can improve situations, but is instead a reward for good behavior?

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