Let's Rekindle the Crawford Talks

[BobDylan]

We basically got Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, Tadahito Iguchi, A.J. Pierzynski, and Orlando Hernandez with the money we saved on Carlos Lee. That was pretty similar. This time it could be the difference between keeping one of Buehrle, Dye or Crede and letting them walk. I'd say that's a pretty major difference.

 

If we had a $40 or $50 million dollar payroll, yes, you take that deal in a heartbeat. However, our payroll has gotten kind of bloated and we have a lot of money committed, with several other players up for new contracts over the next two years. Unless you are going to blow up the team in two years, you need to start mixing in some cheaper players, especially in the pitching staff.

 

Don't be ridiculous. We also parted ways with Magglio Ordonez and Jose Valentin.

Edited November 2, 2006 by BobDylan

[witesoxfan]

Don't be ridiculous. We also parted ways with Magglio Ordonez and Jose Valentin.

 

That was $16 million - $8 million to Garcia, $6 million to Contreras, and $2 mill for various other raises.

 

The money spent in the 04-05 offseason was money from revenues and the savings of the Carlos Lee deal, by and large.

 

 

And I still see no reasoning against trading McCarthy and Sweeney for Crawford, and then trading one of the other starters for pitching prospects. It can very easily be done.

[ZoomSlowik]

Don't be ridiculous. We also parted ways with Magglio Ordonez and Jose Valentin.

That was basically what happened, although on further analysis, my math was a little off. Lee made $8.5 mil in 2005. Pods made 700k, Iguchi made 2.35 mil, and El Duque made $3.5 mil. I can't find what AJ or Vizcaino made right now, but those salaries weren't a whole lot more than the remaining $2 mil difference between Lee and those other 3 players. All of those acquisitions came with or after the Lee trade.

 

$10 mil can easily be 3 players that will play a major role on the team if you spend the money wisely.

[BobDylan]

How exactly is he going to find a way to get around paying $70 mil to 5 guys with raises in the near future for Buehrle, Garcia, Dye, and Crede? We're not the Yankees, and KW is not a magician. You're also taking away a lot of his flexibility because he no longer has an extra starting pitcher to work with. If you trade B-Mac, you're going to end up making massive changes to this team, because they simply can't afford to keep everyone around...

 

I'm not sure why you're worried about changes. The Sox made quite a few going into the 2005 season. I'd also say they made quite a few changes into the 2006 season.

 

Aside from that, if a Brandon McCarthy for Carl Crawford deal is on the table, I HIGHLY doubt Kenny hasn't noticed the financial risk. That said, you don't think he has plans in order to weaken that financial blow? It's as if the thoughts around here are that the Sox will be in financial ruin if they make this trade. I don't know the ins and outs around the league and I don't know much about who's available, who wants what, etc, but I do know that Kenny Williams has gone against A LOT of the "knowledge" of this message board and has proved people wrong time and time again. If Williams makes a trade like this, there isn't much in his tenure here that says to me that he can't figure a way around the financial issue. He's earned my trust.

 

That said, if he doesn't make this trade, I trust him there too.

[ZoomSlowik]

That was $16 million - $8 million to Garcia, $6 million to Contreras, and $2 mill for various other raises.

 

The money spent in the 04-05 offseason was money from revenues and the savings of the Carlos Lee deal, by and large.

And I still see no reasoning against trading McCarthy and Sweeney for Crawford, and then trading one of the other starters for pitching prospects. It can very easily be done.

 

I'd rather trade one of the starters and flip the prospects to Tampa personally, depending on who we get of course. I can't think of too many other young pitchers that I would rather have as our 5th starter next year in that situation, and we couldn't get most of them. If we could deal Garcia and get someone like Danks, Pelfrey, or Humber I'd love to see us work out something with those guys and Sweeney. However, I don't know how feasible that really is. I wouldn't be quite as comfortable with our pitching if we dealt B-Mac and kept a pitching prospect of that ilk either.

[BobDylan]

That was basically what happened, although on further analysis, my math was a little off. Lee made $8.5 mil in 2005. Pods made 700k, Iguchi made 2.35 mil, and El Duque made $3.5 mil. I can't find what AJ or Vizcaino made right now, but those salaries weren't a whole lot more than the remaining $2 mil difference between Lee and those other 3 players. All of those acquisitions came with or after the Lee trade.

 

$10 mil can easily be 3 players that will play a major role on the team if you spend the money wisely.

 

In any regard, many of those players KW acquired were the "b-plans".

[redandwhite]

QUOTE(ZoomSlowik @ Nov 2, 2006 -> 01:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd rather trade one of the starters and flip the prospects to Tampa personally, depending on who we get of course. I can't think of too many other young pitchers that I would rather have as our 5th starter next year in that situation, and we couldn't get most of them. If we could deal Garcia and get someone like Danks, Pelfrey, or Humber I'd love to see us work out something with those guys and Sweeney. However, I don't know how feasible that really is. I wouldn't be quite as comfortable with our pitching if we dealt B-Mac and kept a pitching prospect of that ilk either.

 

If teams could just flip there prospects to get Crawford they would do that rather than pick up Freddy Garcia.

[ZoomSlowik]

I'm not sure why you're worried about changes. The Sox made quite a few going into the 2005 season. I'd also say they made quite a few changes into the 2006 season.

 

Aside from that, if a Brandon McCarthy for Carl Crawford deal is on the table, I HIGHLY doubt Kenny hasn't noticed the financial risk. That said, you don't think he has plans in order to weaken that financial blow? It's as if the thoughts around here are that the Sox will be in financial ruin if they make this trade. I don't know the ins and outs around the league and I don't know much about who's available, who wants what, etc, but I do know that Kenny Williams has gone against A LOT of the "knowledge" of this message board and has proved people wrong time and time again. If Williams makes a trade like this, there isn't much in his tenure here that says to me that he can't figure a way around the financial issue. He's earned my trust.

 

That said, if he doesn't make this trade, I trust him there too.

 

Because we wouldn't have anywhere near as much money to work with this time around. We added about $20 mil in players each of those off-seasons. That simply would not be feasible this time around. Because of the money we have tied up in guys like Konerko, Thome, Contreras, Garland and Vazquez, we'd probably have to let at least two (more likely 3) of Buehrle, Garcia, Dye, Crede and Iguchi go in the near future, and you wouldn't have a whole lot of money to find replacements with. It'd also seriously hamper our chances of filling other holes.

 

Where exactly is he going to shed money if he deals McCarthy? It's highly unlikely that he deals Konerko or Thome, and we wouldn't have the flexibility to deal a starter anymore. That means Dye or Crede would probably have to go, and then we'd have to be replacing at least one of Buehrle and Garcia the next year. That's not exactly an intriguing proposal either. That would seriously limit his options and probably result in weakening the team. Kenny is good, but he's no magician. It'd be difficult to retain our key players and fill any future holes with a good chunck of our payroll tied up in only a few players.

 

In any regard, many of those players KW acquired were the "b-plans".

 

Now you can read Kenny's mind? I don't see how you can really say that given when that occurred. Yes, I know at one point he was after Vizquel and Clement at one point, but that feel through well before the Lee trade.

 

 

 

If teams could just flip there prospects to get Crawford they would do that rather than pick up Freddy Garcia.

 

Unless Crawford pitches now too those are two entirely different markets. More teams need pitchers than leftfielders, and more teams are willing to overpay for pitchers as well.

Edited November 2, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[BobDylan]

Because we wouldn't have anywhere near as much money to work with this time around. We added about $20 mil in players each of those off-seasons. That simply would not be feasible this time around. Because of the money we have tied up in guys like Konerko, Thome, Contreras, Garland and Vazquez, we'd probably have to let at least two (more likely 3) of Buehrle, Garcia, Dye, Crede and Iguchi go in the near future, and you wouldn't have a whole lot of money to find replacements with. It'd also seriously hamper our chances of filling other holes.

Where exactly is he going to shed money if he deals McCarthy? It's highly unlikely that he deals Konerko or Thome, and we wouldn't have the flexibility to deal a starter anymore. That means Dye or Crede would probably have to go, and then we'd have to be replacing at least one of Buehrle and Garcia the next year. That would seriously limit his options and probably result in weakening the team. Kenny is good, but he's no magician. It'd be difficult to retain our key players and fill any future holes with a good chunck of our payroll tied up in only a few players.

 

How would I know? Kenny works in the front office, I don't. The entire point of my post was to point out that Kenny Williams will explore all the options we can't see.

 

 

Now you can read Kenny's mind? I don't see how you can really say that given where that occurred. Yes, I know at one point he was after Vizquel and Clement at one point, but that feel through.

 

No, but I can read his quotes. Where have you been?

 

 

Unless Crawford pitches now too those are two entirely different markets. More teams need pitchers than leftfielders, and more teams are willing to overpay for pitchers as well.

 

But teams aren't willing to overpay for one of the leagues best (and young) lead-off hitters?

 

Let me ask you this...would you trade Brandon McCarthy for Ichiro? (Nobody else can answer this question)

Edited November 2, 2006 by BobDylan

[witesoxfan]

But teams aren't willing to overpay for one of the leagues best (and young) lead-off hitters?

 

They would be willing to...but if they don't need a LFer or a lead-off hitter, why would they?

[Flash Tizzle]

And I still see no reasoning against trading McCarthy and Sweeney for Crawford, and then trading one of the other starters for pitching prospects. It can very easily be done.

I'm not entirely against the scenario you, as well as Chisoxfn, suggested.

 

I just believe if we were to obtain a prospect capable of reasonably matching or exceeding McCarthy's value, Vazquez would be the pitcher traded. Even then, is anyone aside from Minaya willing to overpay for Javier? This would really be the only condition for trading him.

 

Entering next season with Buehrle and Garcia in contract seasons, questionable healthy status of Contreras, and Garland as perhaps the most consistent is worrisome. If we're obtaining a pitching prospect for Vazquez (or whomever else), he better be DAMN good; and ready to pitch next season. No projects.

 

I just don't see everything running together for us. We'll receive less than we want for a starter, while depleting our system for Crawford. Watch, whichever team Williams trades a starter he'll have the other team pay the remaining salary. Thus, in return, we'll receive pure crap. Afterwards, a delightful package of McCarthy/Sweeney/Oneli Perez will be offered for Crawford and some scrub catching prospect.

[Chet Lemon]

last night i had a dream that Sox sent Dye & Iguchi to the Yankees for Cano and Melky. this did make sense to me as you cut huge amounts of salary and avoid an otherwise inevitable FA nightmare at the end of '07. Melky has a strong arm, so he could be an everday right fielder. i was thinking trade Garcia to Cin for Freel and a pitching prospect, start Freel in LF and enjoy his career .367 OBP in the leadoff spot. this could be better than trading away all our great prospects to get Crawford. now i need to have a dream about getting rid of Uribe's ass.

[RockRaines]

Pitching still beats offense, unless you see another way for us to pick up a solid pitcher, you still cant do this trade.

[CanOfCorn]

Carl Crawford is NOT a leadoff hitter. His stats for 2003-2005 in the #1 spot were .294/.332/.447. And last year it was .253/.323/.310. Great for a number 2 hitter, but NOT for leadoff.

 

In the spirit of the season, I vote NO on the Carl Crawford Bill.

[ZoomSlowik]

Let me ask you this...would you trade Brandon McCarthy for Ichiro? (Nobody else can answer this question)

 

I don't see how this is relevant, but whatever.

 

In our situation no, I wouldn't trade McCarthy for Ichiro. Obviously he is the more talented player, but that's even worse financially. You're adding $11 mil to the payroll AND preventing us from moving a starter. He's also only signed for one more year, so he'd end up costing us more than $11 mil in the future.

 

That move would ultimately cost us probably 2 major pieces from our team, maybe more.

 

Since you're not seeing this big picture, I'll spell it out:

 

Buehrle- 9.5 in 07, unknown 08 and beyond (best guess 12 mil)

Contreras- 9 in 07, 10 in 08 and 09

Crede- arbitration in 07 and 08, unknown in 09 and beyond (best guess 10 mil)

Dye- 6.5 in 07, unknown 08 and beyond (at least 8 mil)

Garcia- 10 in 07, unknown 08 and beyond (at least 10 mil)

Garland- 10 in 07, 12 in 08, unknown after

Iguchi- 3.25 in 07, unknown 08 and beyond (at least 5 mil)

Konerko- 12 in 07 and each year through 2010

Pierzynski- 5.5 in 07 and 08, unknown 09 and beyond

Thome- about 8 mil in 07 and 08, 14 team option in 09

Uribe- 4.15 in 07, 5 team option in 08

Vazquez- about 9.5 in 07, uncertain after that

 

That's $87.8 mil committed to 11 players for next year (didn't include Crede's arbitration), which means it's probably pushing $120 for 25 guys.

 

In 2008 we already have $45.5 mil tied up in Jose, Garland, Paulie, AJ, and Thome, and could spend another 5 to keep Uribe. Even assuming you let Garcia walk, you'd need to add at least another $25 mil for Buehrle, Dye and Iguchi, and you'd have to find another starting pitcher since you traded McCarthy (for my purposes, I'm assuming those guys are retained, since finding a comparable replacement would probably cost us more money or cost us significant talent in trade). So that's probably at least another $75 mil tied up in 9 players without counting what Crede and Vazquez would make, or what another potential starter would make. That would probably push the payroll over $120 mil, maybe more. And that doesn't include ANY players added to improve the team.

 

Then the year after that you need to worry about Crede, Garland, Uribe, and AJ, plus you need to decide if you want to pick up Thome's option. That's probably about $48 mil if you keep all of them, or an awful lot of replacements. Plus you're really hampered from previous contracts.

 

It's pretty simple: one of the starters has to be moved if we want to even have a chance to keep any of our key guys over the next few years. You simply can't do that if you trade McCarthy, unless you want to seriously hurt the team's rotation that was already shaky going into 2007. That doesn't sound like something Kenny would do to me.

 

McCarthy gives you a lot more flexibilty. It saves you about $9.5 mil for next year and gives you a low cost alternative for the next several years instead of forcing you to find another starter somewhere. So instead of shelling out $6 mil or more to get someone like Jason Marquis or Vincente Padilla (who he would probably outpitch), you can put it towards keeping Buerhle, Crede, Dye, or Garland, and you still have the young talent to work with that you got for Garcia (or for arguments sake Vazquez or Buehrle) that might allow you to do the same thing at another spot.

Edited November 2, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[RME JICO]

If we can work the Crawford deal without giving up B-Mac I would do it, but if B-Mac is in the deal, I say no as well. ZoomSlowik covers it pretty well.

[CanOfCorn]

And even with the "Win Now" approach that people have been talking about, ask the Red Sox and Yankees about that. Biggest payrolls, 1 World Series win between them since 2001.

 

I'd rather have B-Mac and Roberts than our current 5 starters and Crawford.

[witesoxfan]

Carl Crawford is NOT a leadoff hitter. His stats for 2003-2005 in the #1 spot were .294/.332/.447. And last year it was .253/.323/.310. Great for a number 2 hitter, but NOT for leadoff.

 

In the spirit of the season, I vote NO on the Carl Crawford Bill.

 

He was 22 in 2003, pretty much fresh out of the minors.

 

And he'd be a fine leadoff hitter, regardless of what his numbers say. He's hitting #2 in Tampa because that's where Maddon felt he fit best in the lineup, and there's no reason beyond that.

 

And even with the "Win Now" approach that people have been talking about, ask the Red Sox and Yankees about that. Biggest payrolls, 1 World Series win between them since 2001.

 

And 4 World Series victories since 1998, including 6 World Series appearances. The Yankees have also made the playoffs 12 straight years.

[CanOfCorn]

He was 22 in 2003, pretty much fresh out of the minors.

 

And he'd be a fine leadoff hitter, regardless of what his numbers say. He's hitting #2 in Tampa because that's where Maddon felt he fit best in the lineup, and there's no reason beyond that.

And 4 World Series victories since 1998, including 6 World Series appearances. The Yankees have also made the playoffs 12 straight years.

 

He's in the same league, offense wise, as Pierre. Obviously, he'd be a much better LF'er. But, he's better as a 2, than a leadoff.

 

And you can't compare 1998 Yankees with todays Yankees.

 

Tino, O'Neill, Bernie, Brosius don't compare to the ridiculous salaries of A-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield and Damon. They started spending money on big-time names and talents and haven't won since.

 

Pitching wins WS (or this year, pitchers being able to throw to a base that isn't home). Crawford would be great, but not for McCarthy.

[redandwhite]

QUOTE(RME JICO @ Nov 2, 2006 -> 11:24 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If we can work the Crawford deal without giving up B-Mac I would do it, but if B-Mac is in the deal, I say no as well. ZoomSlowik covers it pretty well.

 

Well then there should be no more discussion because without B-Mac, the White Sox have nothing to offer.

[ZoomSlowik]

He's in the same league, offense wise, as Pierre. Obviously, he'd be a much better LF'er. But, he's better as a 2, than a leadoff.

 

And you can't compare 1998 Yankees with todays Yankees.

 

Tino, O'Neill, Bernie, Brosius don't compare to the ridiculous salaries of A-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield and Damon. They started spending money on big-time names and talents and haven't won since.

 

Pitching wins WS (or this year, pitchers being able to throw to a base that isn't home). Crawford would be great, but not for McCarthy.

 

While I agree with the general premise, Crawford is a much better hitter than Pierre. Crawford is a more efficient runner, actually has some power, drives in significantly more runs (yes, I know Pierre has the pitcher in front of him, but that won't totally account for the difference), and has better contact and OBP numbers the last few years. Plus he will cost less money and his career is on the upswing unlike Pierre.

 

I like Crawford and he'd be a great fit, but the price is probably going to be too high. Trading B-Mac for Crawford and keeping Garcia essentially would cost us $14 mil more than keeping B-Mac and dealing Garcia for prospects. That's a sum we can't really afford.

[southsider2k5]

I see lots of money talk, so I am curious exactly where people are thinking the Sox 2007 payroll is going to settle out?

[redandwhite]

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Nov 2, 2006 -> 01:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I see lots of money talk, so I am curious exactly where people are thinking the Sox 2007 payroll is going to settle out?

 

Well if you opt to trade one of the starters, replace them with four-a fodder, I'd imagine the White Sox payroll would be at or around what it was last season.

[ZoomSlowik]

I see lots of money talk, so I am curious exactly where people are thinking the Sox 2007 payroll is going to settle out?

 

My best guess would be somewhere between $100 and $115 mil, and I'd personally prefer that it is closer to $100 mil given the number of contracts that are up over the next 2 years. I can't really see us going that far over that yet. The Sox are a hot ticket now but until we know that we can maintain this type of attendance level for a few years it wouldn't be too smart to go nuts with the salary IMO.

 

ESPN had them at $102,875,667 last year, but IIRC that doesn't include the money we got for Thome or Vazquez, which would drop that by about $6 mil (though there are several built-in raises to consider). I expect a moderate increase this year, which would let us do a lot of things IF we trade Garcia or another starter.

Edited November 2, 2006 by ZoomSlowik

[RockRaines]

I see lots of money talk, so I am curious exactly where people are thinking the Sox 2007 payroll is going to settle out?

115 million.