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White Sox Payroll


spiderman

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Here are some numbers which I looked at this morning. The axis on the left represents net payroll change in millions for a new season and goes with the bar graph. The axis on the right represents the percent attendance change in the season before the new payroll was decided upon and goes with the line graph.

 

It is clear that Jerry rewards the fans when attendance increases significantly, which it did this year (+26.23%). In years past when attendance increased over 20%, then net payroll went up at least $25 million.

 

When attendance doesn't change much or even goes down very slightly (less than -5%), then the payroll has gone up around $5-15 million.

 

However when attendance decreases by at least 5%, the payroll has actually been reduced.

 

I think whoever threw out $120 million as a projection for next year's payroll is pretty spot on.

 

studyrs6.th.jpg

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too much assuming, there is a waiting list for season tickets and they upped the prices a bit. Also they have new luxury boxes which will bring in more revenue. There is no reason to think that the attendance will effect the payroll in a negative way at all.

2006 was a season following a WS win. 2007 will be a season following a third place finish in the division. Do you really think the attendance/revenue will be as high in 2007 as it was in 2006? I can guarantee that JR is smart enough to know that it won't be. Therefore I'm sure the Sox will take that into consideration and it will figure into how much they are willing to shell out in payroll.

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QUOTE(3E8 @ Nov 11, 2006 -> 10:04 AM)
I think whoever threw out $120 million as a projection for next year's payroll is pretty spot on.

 

studyrs6.th.jpg

The other side of this token though is that just because the White Sox may have the money to spend, it's not necessarily the best idea to spend it.

 

Right now, baseball is in one of those revenue-surge modes, to the point where people are talking about contracts being given out this offseason that are just about as stupid as some of the ones handed out after 2000 (ARod and Manny).

 

The White Sox only have a couple of holes that can be filled. LF, SS, maybe CF if you can find someone really, really good. But they're also in a position to even be cutting salary in 1 place by dropping at least 1, if not 2 starting pitchers. Drop 1 starter, and the difference between what we have committed and $120 million is something like $30 million dollars. It'll cost some to extend Buehrle, Crede, Iguchi, and Dye, but that still leaves a ton of cash sitting there.

 

And, if everyone out there is looking to cash in by going after one of the couple big name guys, a guy like Soriano or Lee could just hold out until they find a freaking fortune somewhere. While getting a Soriano would land us a hell of a player, it also could land us a hell of a bill, to the point that we might regret it in the future.

 

We may very well be better off saving a little cash this season, extending the people we do have right now, and adding onto our payroll when there's either better, smarter, or cheaper options available a year or two from now (especially since it'd give us another year to evaluate Anderson, Haeger, and McCarthy, and see if we need to spend money to replace any of them).

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QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Nov 11, 2006 -> 11:03 PM)
2005 spurred on the 2006 attendance you speak of. Season ticket sales went through the roof. From everything we have heard(including my ticket rep) renewal rates are around 90% for 2007. There is still a ton of interest in this 90 win ball club. If they come out of the gate strong like they have the last two years, I see no reason why attendance wont be close to what it was in 06.

 

 

That's what I am talking about! Playoff games for 2005 didn't mean anything for 2006, but almost 3M in attendance did.

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$120M sounds like a pretty close figure to what I think the payroll will probably be around.

 

Remember over the past 5-6 seasons, Reinsdorf has increased the payroll each season, the most being last season after the World Series.

 

I see no reason for that to change. And if you trade a SP like Garcia, that gives you $30M in change to play around with.

 

As RME said earlier in this thread, some of that money will go to the likes of Joe Crede this off-seaon. But we could still have at least $20M to play around with to fill our holes.

 

For example;

Justin Speier - 3year $12M deal.

Dave Roberts - 2 year $10M deal with a team option for a 3rd.

 

So just signing those 2 players, could still leave you with another $10M to use, to beef up the bullpen more, or go after a bonafide stud CF in the trade market like Vernon Wells perhaps?

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Sox have plenty of money to spend

 

- no buy outs (ie Frank/Everett) $4mm

- new lux boxes $5mm

- est 3mm in attendance next year

 

Should easily hit $120mm next year and keep the pressure on everyone, keep the cubs down and keep moving the TV/Radio/Media ratings, if the sox let off the gas they can quickly become a middle of the pack team again. Yes we were 3rd in the division last year but I don't think we were "average" by any means, maybe underperformed.

 

I do think that many season ticket holders will try to pair up or dump their packages this off-season, time will tell. I would bet 50% of the "new" season ticket holders were counting on revenue from playoff ticket sales to cover some of their cost.

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QUOTE(That funky motion @ Nov 9, 2006 -> 03:44 PM)
I know that I tried to move my seats, and my rep said no one is really droping out. I just have 2 seats,so it sounds like everyone is staying.

That's also what I'm hearing. This is a good thing for Sox payroll.

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