2008 Presidential Announcement Thread.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm not a big fan of Edwards, but he's done a lot for the Dems in the last four years, and would be more than acceptable to the base that the Dems would need to turn out. He probably could get North Carolina AND Virginia to flip red to blue, which might be enough. Especially if Warner gets a VP nod.

 

IMO, I think of the current candidates, I'd like to see an Obama nomination - if nothing else to see someone other than a white male at the head of a ticket. But I'd want Schweitzer, Richardson or Warner to be the VP nod.

 

If Al Gore wanted this nomination though.... if we get real Al Gore, and not consulted algore, I'd be all for it.

I would definitely prefer Gore to Kerry, Clinton or Edwards. If, as you say, we get the real person. But he isn't going to win, or even run, probably. Might be an inspired VP pick though, if the Prez candidate is on the moderate or conservative side of the blue zone.

 

Schweitzer?

[Gregory Pratt]

Obama is a black man. He won't win. Don't kid yourselves. He won't even take The Nod. And beyond that, he's a tad mediocre, IMO. A guy with good speechwriters and PR skills.

 

All hat. No shoulder pads.

 

(I say he's a black man and can't win not as an endorsement of racism but an acknowledgement of American racism still, ah, existing.)

[NorthSideSox72]

Obama is a black man. He won't win. Don't kid yourselves. He won't even take The Nod. And beyond that, he's a tad mediocre, IMO. A guy with good speechwriters and PR skills.

 

All hat. No shoulder pads.

 

(I say he's a black man and can't win not as an endorsement of racism but an acknowledgement of American racism still, ah, existing.)

I'd wager that the American public is more willing to vote in a black man than a white woman.

[Heads22]

Vilsack on the Daily Show tonight.

[Gregory Pratt]

I'd wager that the American public is more willing to vote in a black man than a white woman.

 

Neither has a prayer today. Hillary Clinton might because there is plenty of support for Clinton out there but even that's a stretch and a helluva stretch.

 

See: Doug Wilder, 1992; racial makeup of America. Sorry.

 

Honestly, I'm rather amazed that otherwise smart people are willing to pretend that America doesn't have the racial history it has or racial makeup it does -- that Pennsylvania, the most Democratic of the swingstates, would vote in a Black Man even though it's over 90% white (I think it's ninety seven). That a Black Man can win a single electoral vote in the South -- in Iowa, in Missouri or Michigan.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Vilsack on the Daily Show tonight.

I saw him. He's ok. Didnt really impress me. But, didn't turn me off. I went to his webpage and saw he is keeping a video blog. Very neat. I think he might be trying to hard thought. We'll see. i want to see who else jumps ina and what their stance is on the issues. I won't vote for Obama just because he is from Illinois and I wont vote for Vilsack because he is from Iowa (my wife's home state and my future home state). I will vote on the issues.

 

Obama never really says anything worth while

 

http://www.ontheissues.org/Barack_Obama.htm

[Heads22]

He didn't wow me either. He's not my favorite in the group.

[southsider2k5]

I'd wager that the American public is more willing to vote in a black man than a white woman.

 

I'd take that bet if we weren't talking about Hillary Clinton.

[NorthSideSox72]

Neither has a prayer today. Hillary Clinton might because there is plenty of support for Clinton out there but even that's a stretch and a helluva stretch.

 

See: Doug Wilder, 1992; racial makeup of America. Sorry.

 

Honestly, I'm rather amazed that otherwise smart people are willing to pretend that America doesn't have the racial history it has or racial makeup it does -- that Pennsylvania, the most Democratic of the swingstates, would vote in a Black Man even though it's over 90% white (I think it's ninety seven). That a Black Man can win a single electoral vote in the South -- in Iowa, in Missouri or Michigan.

When Colin Powell was considering a run from the GOP side ('92 or '96, I forget which), polls indicated he was at that time the most popular choice not only in his own party, but nationally as well. He eventually dropped out (at least in part because his wife said she'd leave him if he won), but he absolutely had a good chance to win.

 

I have no doubt that there is still plenty of racism and bigotry in this country. But I do believe that the right person can bust through that, and right now, Obama looks like he might be that person. I just think American is more ready (right now) for a black man than a woman of any race to win the Presidency. None of that should really matter of course, but, it does.

[Gregory Pratt]

When Colin Powell was considering a run from the GOP side ('92 or '96, I forget which), polls indicated he was at that time the most popular choice not only in his own party, but nationally as well. He eventually dropped out (at least in part because his wife said she'd leave him if he won), but he absolutely had a good chance to win.

 

I have no doubt that there is still plenty of racism and bigotry in this country. But I do believe that the right person can bust through that, and right now, Obama looks like he might be that person. I just think American is more ready (right now) for a black man than a woman of any race to win the Presidency. None of that should really matter of course, but, it does.

 

Polls indicated -- you're telling me that Powell had a chance because the polls indicated? Please. Polls indictated that John Kerry had a prayer.

 

As soon as the Forces of Politics and Race got a hold on him -- which doesn't happen during the "Honeymoon" of "Will he or won't he?" but only once the race BEGINS -- he'd have been mauled.

[southsider2k5]

When Colin Powell was considering a run from the GOP side ('92 or '96, I forget which), polls indicated he was at that time the most popular choice not only in his own party, but nationally as well. He eventually dropped out (at least in part because his wife said she'd leave him if he won), but he absolutely had a good chance to win.

 

I have no doubt that there is still plenty of racism and bigotry in this country. But I do believe that the right person can bust through that, and right now, Obama looks like he might be that person. I just think American is more ready (right now) for a black man than a woman of any race to win the Presidency. None of that should really matter of course, but, it does.

 

As split as the electorate is, it doesn't take much to keep a canditate out of office. If you were to get the usual party line split, plus even a couple of a percent of a party who either didn't vote, or voted for an opponent because of their usual party's canditate's race, it would be enough to swing an election quite easily. It isn't that the overwealming portion of the country isn't ready for a [insert downtrodden minority of your choice here] President, its that the 1% of the country that isn't, would be the swing vote in this scenario.

[NorthSideSox72]

Polls indicated -- you're telling me that Powell had a chance because the polls indicated? Please. Polls indictated that John Kerry had a prayer.

 

As soon as the Forces of Politics and Race got a hold on him -- which doesn't happen during the "Honeymoon" of "Will he or won't he?" but only once the race BEGINS -- he'd have been mauled.

Kerry did have a prayer - he lost 51-49. And if he had been the slightest bit competent in his campaign messages, you would have won. You make it sound like he was Walter Mondale or something. Polls are obviously flawed, but to say that a poll showing Powell favored in an election is nothing is dismissing reality.

[Gregory Pratt]

It was absolutely nothing. The poll was taken in the VERY early stages. He'd have been destroyed and he knew it. That's why he didn't run. (I don't buy the "My wife would leave me" angle. That's more of a clever excuse than anything.)

[NorthSideSox72]

As split as the electorate is, it doesn't take much to keep a canditate out of office. If you were to get the usual party line split, plus even a couple of a percent of a party who either didn't vote, or voted for an opponent because of their usual party's canditate's race, it would be enough to swing an election quite easily. It isn't that the overwealming portion of the country isn't ready for a [insert downtrodden minority of your choice here] President, its that the 1% of the country that isn't, would be the swing vote in this scenario.

I completely disagree. The 1% (and I'd say its actually more than that, more like 5% or more) of the population that simply won't vote for a black man is NOT the swing vote - those voters will vote GOP, or maybe 3rd party, almost all of the time. So Obama doesn't suffer for that. Powell might have, though. The far right fringes, where racism is most prevalent, wouldn't vote for any democrat in any case. The swing votes, America's socially moderate, are far less likely to be driven that way.

 

As for sexism and Hillary on the other hand, I think the fear of a female President would exist on that far right fringe, but ALSO exist in other segments of the population. She suffers at the swing much more than a racial minority would.

 

 

It was absolutely nothing. The poll was taken in the VERY early stages. He'd have been destroyed and he knew it. That's why he didn't run. (I don't buy the "My wife would leave me" angle. That's more of a clever excuse than anything.)

Have you read much on Powell? Or read anything he has written himself? Because I have. I don't doubt for one second his wife said that.

 

Powell was lacking in political prowess and mindset to be sure. He is a statesman in the pure sense. If he lost, that is what would have made him lose. The few percent on the far right of his party (as stated earlier) would not have voted for him, but he would have picked up at least that many based purely on race from the far left in the black community.

[Rex Kickass]

There are some politicians whose reputation and persona can overcome any handicap that race would have. I think Obama is one of them. I think Colin Powell was the other until he accepted his Secretary of State nod.

 

I don't think Obama would be necessarily a bad choice for the Democrats - as he would pretty much automatically rally the base, for no real good reason, but would also really appeal to independents who might feel swayed by a McCain or Guiliani nomination.

[Gregory Pratt]

Have you read much on Powell? Or read anything he has written himself? Because I have. I don't doubt for one second his wife said that.

 

I've read what he's written. I know all about Colin Powell. He's a liar and a scumbag, frankly, and I base that on his role in the My Lai cover-up. I have no doubt that a career military man would lie or EXAGGERATE why he skipped out of the election. If his wife said that, good for her, but the real reason was almost certainly that he KNEW that there'd be some serious problems.

 

You seriously underestimate racial issues. You know about Doug Wilder, right? Democrat from Virginia. Damn good Governor, was going to run in 1992. People love him in name and his achievements but as soon as they learned he was black, through pictures and campaign, he was done. That'd definitely happen to Colin Powell. Definitely.

[southsider2k5]

I completely disagree. The 1% (and I'd say its actually more than that, more like 5% or more) of the population that simply won't vote for a black man is NOT the swing vote - those voters will vote GOP, or maybe 3rd party, almost all of the time. So Obama doesn't suffer for that. Powell might have, though. The far right fringes, where racism is most prevalent, wouldn't vote for any democrat in any case. The swing votes, America's socially moderate, are far less likely to be driven that way.

 

As for sexism and Hillary on the other hand, I think the fear of a female President would exist on that far right fringe, but ALSO exist in other segments of the population. She suffers at the swing much more than a racial minority would.

Have you read much on Powell? Or read anything he has written himself? Because I have. I don't doubt for one second his wife said that.

 

Powell was lacking in political prowess and mindset to be sure. He is a statesman in the pure sense. If he lost, that is what would have made him lose. The few percent on the far right of his party (as stated earlier) would not have voted for him, but he would have picked up at least that many based purely on race from the far left in the black community.

 

I don't know about percentages, but i know both parties have their idiots. It might be more in one group or another, but I still feel it is enough to sway an election in this climate.

[NorthSideSox72]

I've read what he's written. I know all about Colin Powell. He's a liar and a scumbag, frankly, and I base that on his role in the My Lai cover-up. I have no doubt that a career military man would lie or EXAGGERATE why he skipped out of the election. If his wife said that, good for her, but the real reason was almost certainly that he KNEW that there'd be some serious problems.

 

You seriously underestimate racial issues. You know about Doug Wilder, right? Democrat from Virginia. Damn good Governor, was going to run in 1992. People love him in name and his achievements but as soon as they learned he was black, through pictures and campaign, he was done. That'd definitely happen to Colin Powell. Definitely.

Virginia U.S.

 

The amount of underlying racial tensions is as amplified in VA as it is anywhere in the country. Few other states have as much of it. Your view on the influence of race takes individual pieces of information and extrapolates them over the entire country. Forgive the use of phrase, but, its not that black and white.

 

For some on the fringes, race might be the one and only factor. But the fringes would cancel out anyway, as I pointed out earlier. In Obama's case, any adamant "I won't vote black" stuff on one end of the spectrum would be balanced by black voters who might vote for McCain or Giuliani if the Dem running was white. The votes that matter, the ones that swing left and right, are not tobacco farmers in southern Virginia. They will tend to be wowed by a guy like Obama who dispells many of the stereotypes that some of them may harbor, and they are often interested in something different than what is going on today.

 

Obama, unless he says or does something racially specific that offends people during his campaign, will not win or lose because of his race - despite the fact that yes, racism still exists. Those may seem like opposing facts, but when you dig in, you'll see what I mean by not that black and white.

 

 

I don't know about percentages, but i know both parties have their idiots. It might be more in one group or another, but I still feel it is enough to sway an election in this climate.

Again, look at where those idiots (in the case of racism-type idiots) fall on the spectrum. Those who will vote for a black man for that reason alone, or vote for the other guy for that reason alone, will vote Dem and GOP respectively anyway if both candidates are white. Therefore, the influence is minimized.

 

Now, there are plenty of idiots in the middle too. But those who are that racist are not socially in the middle, by nature.

[YASNY]

I completely disagree. The 1% (and I'd say its actually more than that, more like 5% or more) of the population that simply won't vote for a black man is NOT the swing vote - those voters will vote GOP, or maybe 3rd party, almost all of the time. So Obama doesn't suffer for that. Powell might have, though. The far right fringes, where racism is most prevalent, wouldn't vote for any democrat in any case. The swing votes, America's socially moderate, are far less likely to be driven that way.

 

As for sexism and Hillary on the other hand, I think the fear of a female President would exist on that far right fringe, but ALSO exist in other segments of the population. She suffers at the swing much more than a racial minority would.

Have you read much on Powell? Or read anything he has written himself? Because I have. I don't doubt for one second his wife said that.

 

Powell was lacking in political prowess and mindset to be sure. He is a statesman in the pure sense. If he lost, that is what would have made him lose. The few percent on the far right of his party (as stated earlier) would not have voted for him, but he would have picked up at least that many based purely on race from the far left in the black community.

 

Wow! There are no racist Democrats.

[NorthSideSox72]

Wow! There are no racist Democrats.

When you are done hyperbolizing, read my post again.

 

I was quite clear that racism against blacks in the GOP would be, in some form, cancelled out on the other side by racists on the left. In the case of a black man running for President, that means some small percentage of the GOP votes against him because he is black, but also, some small percentage of the Dems vote FOR him because he is black.

 

Is that more clear for you?

 

Both parties, whether they like it or not, harbor certain hateful groups in the fringes of their electorate. In the case of racism by whites against blacks or hispanics, yeah, like it or not, they are a lot more GOP than Democrat. You can not like that fact, but that doesn't make it go away. Similarly, there are fringes on the left that are so full of hate against the majority race or religion that they will vote against them purely for that reason. In BOTH cases, those fringes do not rule the party. But they are there.

[YASNY]

When you are done hyperbolizing, read my post again.

 

I was quite clear that racism against blacks in the GOP would be, in some form, cancelled out on the other side by racists on the left. In the case of a black man running for President, that means some small percentage of the GOP votes against him because he is black, but also, some small percentage of the Dems vote FOR him because he is black.

 

Is that more clear for you?

 

Both parties, whether they like it or not, harbor certain hateful groups in the fringes of their electorate. In the case of racism by whites against blacks or hispanics, yeah, like it or not, they are a lot more GOP than Democrat. You can not like that fact, but that doesn't make it go away. Similarly, there are fringes on the left that are so full of hate against the majority race or religion that they will vote against them purely for that reason. In BOTH cases, those fringes do not rule the party. But they are there.

 

On subsequent posts, you did make that point. However, those posts weren't there before I posted.

[NorthSideSox72]

On subsequent posts, you did make that point. However, those posts weren't there before I posted.

Gotcha. Sorry to jump on that, but the last thing I wanted was people to think I was saying racism was the distinct territory of the GOP. That was sort of the opposite of my point - which is that its existence in both parties might cancel out the effect of a minority male running for national office.

[YASNY]

Gotcha. Sorry to jump on that, but the last thing I wanted was people to think I was saying racism was the distinct territory of the GOP. That was sort of the opposite of my point - which is that its existence in both parties might cancel out the effect of a minority male running for national office.

 

No apologies needed. It's all good.

[Gregory Pratt]

I just think you guys are all underestimating the racist tendencies of America. Not just in the South but in Ohio and Pennsylvania (the first being the most Republican swingstate the other being the most Democratic one) and of Missouri, Iowa and Florida, too.

 

If Obama runs he will be trounced. That's about all I've got to add on the matter.

[southsider2k5]

I just think you guys are all underestimating the racist tendencies of America. Not just in the South but in Ohio and Pennsylvania (the first being the most Republican swingstate the other being the most Democratic one) and of Missouri, Iowa and Florida, too.

 

If Obama runs he will be trounced. That's about all I've got to add on the matter.

You can put a good chunk of Indiana on that list as well IMO...