An offseason of BAD choices

[Steve9347]

I would guess we would win at least 5 more games next year, simply from having the much improved bullpen all year, plus I think the majority of the starting pitching is going to have bounceback years, big ones in the cases of Garcia and Buehrle.

Heck at the rate the Hawks are going, the Sox EASY.

 

 

the hawks have a better win percentage than the bulls there, killer...

[southsider2k5]

the hawks have a better win percentage than the bulls there, killer...

 

The Bulls will be a near 50 win team by the end of the season. The Hawks will not.

[Steve9347]

The Bulls will be a near 50 win team by the end of the season.

 

 

I wouldn't bet on that one...

Edited November 20, 2006 by Steve9347

[southsider2k5]

I wouldn't bet on that one...

 

It happens pretty much every year. The Bulls underachieve out of the gate because they give Skiles half of a new roster, and no big men, yet every year once they learn his system, they make a big second half run. of all of the teams Skiles has had in Chicago, this one is the deepest and most talented. THey will finish in the 47-48 win range more than likely.

[LVSoxFan]

I have said for months now, keep the Five Alive.

 

I don't see why we need to rebuild just because we didn't have 2005 all over again. On paper we were BETTER than 2005 going into '06, but as it turned out our starters had some bad years.

 

I don't expect that to be the case next year. Just a hunch. I think there were some injuries and some fatigue but I'd pretty much keep the team intact except get a decent leadoff hitter and have a solution for Brian Anderson, should his hitting not improve.

 

But I'm fine with standing pat with the starting five.

[witesoxfan]

I have said for months now, keep the Five Alive.

 

I don't see why we need to rebuild just because we didn't have 2005 all over again. On paper we were BETTER than 2005 going into '06, but as it turned out our starters had some bad years.

 

I don't expect that to be the case next year. Just a hunch. I think there were some injuries and some fatigue but I'd pretty much keep the team intact except get a decent leadoff hitter and have a solution for Brian Anderson, should his hitting not improve.

 

But I'm fine with standing pat with the starting five.

 

It's not going to happen, because it doesn't make sense either baseball/value wise or financially. The Sox have 6 starting pitchers, so one can become available, and seeing the holes the Sox have to fill, as well as the value of a moderately priced starting pitcher on today's market, and you have to figure KW could make a killing. Add to the fact that the Sox currently have about $95-100 mill tied up amongst 13-15 players, and they have many players to resign within the next 2-3 years, and trading a SP now makes too much sense not to do.

 

(and it's not like the 2005 White Sox starting rotation didn't overachieve. All 4 of the White Sox playoff starters pitched below their career ERAs. In 2006, Contreras pitched below his career ERA, and Garland was right around his, while all the others were well over. To me, it seems that 2005 is the outlier, not 2006, which is why a change is quite necessary)

[TLAK]

I'm curious what folks think in answer to this question:

 

Would the White Sox win more or fewer games, make or miss the playoffs, if we essentially stood pat this offseason?

 

Given the fact that the Twins will be without Liriano for the year, I believe we would win more games and make the playoffs with essentially the same team, with the only adjustments coming from within. The reason we would be better? Our starting pitching. With added rest and a proper spring training next year, we should bounce back closer to 2005 levels and come close to matching the Tigers' pitching.

 

I'm sure KW will NOT stand pat. But I hope he doesn't hurt the team making moves just to make moves.

I know you're just sayin, but does that mean it's OK to tear up a 99 win World Series Champion, changing a quarter the roster, but KW should stick with 90 win roster that played 8 under after the ASB?

[Want2Repeat]

The post that started this thread has some good points (I didn't agree with them all). The Sox weaknessess last year were pretty well laid out, but to say this offseason is a bust, when it it only Nov. 20th is crazy. I think Kenny is waiting to see a few things shake out before moving. If nothing else is done, I think that it is critical that they add at least one OF with a better bat and improved glove. I can't handle B.A. again and I don't think he was all that great on defense, not enough to justify his bat anyway. I would like to see LF and CF both change over this season and wouldn't mind seeing Rowand back. No matter what, they can't have Uribe, B.A., and PODS, all hitting less than .250 next year, particularly when the rest of the lineup strikes out as much as it does.

 

On the pitching front, I like Kenny's continued plan to add power pitchers to the pen. I think he will add 1-2 more. I wish we had some more power pitchers in that starting lineup. A lot of the rumours out there indicate that Sox will be trying to add a top young pitching prospect if one of our starters are moved.

[striker]

An Offseason of BAD Choices

There is nothing Kenny can do now that will make him look worse than Hendry or Coletti. These GMs spend money like Paris Hilton.

[VAfan]

On the pitching front, I like Kenny's continued plan to add power pitchers to the pen. I think he will add 1-2 more. I wish we had some more power pitchers in that starting lineup. A lot of the rumours out there indicate that Sox will be trying to add a top young pitching prospect if one of our starters are moved.

 

I have no trouble adding power pitchers to the pen, but I can't see trading one of our starting 5 for pitching prospects. Isn't that what teams out of the race do at midseason? How can you expect to get better pitching back?? It just doesn't compute in my mind. If someone can provide some examples where that has worked, let me know.

 

What I could see is trading one of our starters -- and I'm convinced it has to be Javier Vazquez, both because with a longer contract he should have more value and because I think the trade for him really weakened this team last year -- for a young outfielder with significant potential. Of course, we gave up a young outfielder with significant potential to get Vazquez last year -- Chris Young. Wouldn't it be nice to have him back?? He could be in the mix for CF or LF in 2007, and he could soften the blow when we lose Jermaine Dye in 2008. I'm still not sold on Brian Anderson or Ryan Sweeney (or Josh Fields) as above average outfielders of the future, much less superstars. If we could get someone with significant potential for our outfield -- Lastings Milledge? -- for Vazquez, I would make that kind of deal.

 

But I'm still not seeing GREAT choices out there. I'd almost rather roll the dice again with what we have.

[ptatc]

I have no trouble adding power pitchers to the pen, but I can't see trading one of our starting 5 for pitching prospects. Isn't that what teams out of the race do at midseason? How can you expect to get better pitching back?? It just doesn't compute in my mind. If someone can provide some examples where that has worked, let me know.

What I could see is trading one of our starters -- and I'm convinced it has to be Javier Vazquez, both because with a longer contract he should have more value and because I think the trade for him really weakened this team last year -- for a young outfielder with significant potential. Of course, we gave up a young outfielder with significant potential to get Vazquez last year -- Chris Young. Wouldn't it be nice to have him back?? He could be in the mix for CF or LF in 2007, and he could soften the blow when we lose Jermaine Dye in 2008. I'm still not sold on Brian Anderson or Ryan Sweeney (or Josh Fields) as above average outfielders of the future, much less superstars. If we could get someone with significant potential for our outfield -- Lastings Milledge? -- for Vazquez, I would make that kind of deal.

 

But I'm still not seeing GREAT choices out there. I'd almost rather roll the dice again with what we have.

 

Off the top of my head how about Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz? or AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Fransico Liriano and Boof Bonser or Matt Karchner for Jon Garland or Harold Baines and Wayne Tolleson for Sammy Sosa Wilson Alvarez and Scott Fletcher.

 

We can get better by picking up nearly ready pitching prosepcts to help us in the next couple of years when free agents leave while putting MaCarthy in the rotation. This would not work if we didn't have Macarthy ready.

Edited November 21, 2006 by ptatc

[CanOfCorn]

I have no trouble adding power pitchers to the pen, but I can't see trading one of our starting 5 for pitching prospects. Isn't that what teams out of the race do at midseason? How can you expect to get better pitching back?? It just doesn't compute in my mind. If someone can provide some examples where that has worked, let me know.

 

What I could see is trading one of our starters -- and I'm convinced it has to be Javier Vazquez, both because with a longer contract he should have more value and because I think the trade for him really weakened this team last year -- for a young outfielder with significant potential. Of course, we gave up a young outfielder with significant potential to get Vazquez last year -- Chris Young. Wouldn't it be nice to have him back?? He could be in the mix for CF or LF in 2007, and he could soften the blow when we lose Jermaine Dye in 2008. I'm still not sold on Brian Anderson or Ryan Sweeney (or Josh Fields) as above average outfielders of the future, much less superstars. If we could get someone with significant potential for our outfield -- Lastings Milledge? -- for Vazquez, I would make that kind of deal.

 

But I'm still not seeing GREAT choices out there. I'd almost rather roll the dice again with what we have.

 

I would agree if we weren't dealing out of a position of strength. But we are. We have 6 pitchers who have or could start at the major league level and maybe 7 if the Sox want to take a chance with Haeger or Phillips. So, take one of those pitchers and get two or three younger ones to bolster the farm. That's how you sustain success.

[Jeeves]

It may even turn out better that KW waited to pull the trigger on a trade for one of our starters. After some of the free-agent starters get signed, there will be a few teams who couldn't cash in, who would then be more likely to overpay for one of our starters.

 

I think another spot that needs addressing, albeit it isn't as pressing as say LF, is back-up catcher. Stewart isn't the answer, and AJ needs to get rest. He was clearly tired by the end of the season. Ideally we could get a competeny back-up who can hit lefties well. Hell, at this point I'll be happy with anyone just as long as we don't bring back Sandy.

[klaus kinski]

We were world champs in 2005-changed 8 places on roster and finished third. We all believed the team last year was a repeat team. Wholesale changes AGAIN are not the answer-a few holes need to be filled-lets just fill them with quality players

[VAfan]

Off the top of my head how about Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz? or AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Fransico Liriano and Boof Bonser or Matt Karchner for Jon Garland or Harold Baines and Wayne Tolleson for Sammy Sosa Wilson Alvarez and Scott Fletcher.

 

We can get better by picking up nearly ready pitching prosepcts to help us in the next couple of years when free agents leave while putting MaCarthy in the rotation. This would not work if we didn't have Macarthy ready.

 

But Alexander and Karchner were traded in the middle of pennant races by teams that were not in the race, which is exactly my point. Teams in the race will trade anything to give them a half-year of someone they think will help put them over the top. The other trades are hitters for pitchers (or vice versa), which is the much more likely scenario -- again my exact point.

 

We aren't going to get great pitching prospects for one of our 5 main starters. And we also aren't going to turn around prospects to make some third trade, which is what some people have suggested.

 

BTW -- how good is Lastings Milledge? Should we go after that guy? He failed last season, but isn't he supposed to be a 5-tool guy?

[WinningUgly85]

isn't it a little early to say that it has been an offseason of bad choices. I mean KW is not done yet. Plus, we haven't seen our new aquisitions in play yet. Give me a break guys.

[southsideirish71]

But Alexander and Karchner were traded in the middle of pennant races by teams that were not in the race, which is exactly my point. Teams in the race will trade anything to give them a half-year of someone they think will help put them over the top. The other trades are hitters for pitchers (or vice versa), which is the much more likely scenario -- again my exact point.

 

We aren't going to get great pitching prospects for one of our 5 main starters. And we also aren't going to turn around prospects to make some third trade, which is what some people have suggested.

 

BTW -- how good is Lastings Milledge? Should we go after that guy? He failed last season, but isn't he supposed to be a 5-tool guy?

 

Joe Borchard was supposedly a 5 tool guy. Too bad he cant hit the little white ball more consistently.

 

With the highway robbery that is currently going on for FAs, I think we can get a good pitching prospect in the lines of Danks or Pelfrey for one of our starters.

[Kalapse]

We were world champs in 2005-changed 8 places on roster and finished third. We all believed the team last year was a repeat team. Wholesale changes AGAIN are not the answer-a few holes need to be filled-lets just fill them with quality players

This would make sense if the Sox had totally revamped the rotation following the '05 season which they did not. What is the #1 reason the Sox won it all in '05? Pitching. What's the #1 reason the Sox finished 3rd in '06? Pitching.

 

I Don't want to post a s***load of pitching stats here so I'm going to keep it simple and only use ERA+ for this breakdown. That's right, I'm lazy.

 

'05 Rotation (Name - ERA+):

Buehrle - 143

Contreras - 123

Garcia - 115

Garland - 127

Hernandez/McCarthy - 87

Average ERA+ = 119

 

'06 Rotation:

Buehrle - 93

Contreras - 109

Garcia - 103

Garland - 103

Vazquez - 96

Average ERA+ = 101

 

Changes to the rotation from '05 to '06 = Hernandez 87 ERA+ to Vazquez 96 ERA+ = +9 difference

 

CLOSER: The bullpen which was another strength over the '05 season went relatively unchanged from '05 to '06. Hermanson who got hurt after 57 appearanced in the '05 season and was replaced late last year by Bobby Jenks, Jenks kept his closing role for the '06 season.

 

LEFTIES: The main lefty from the '05 team, Neal Cotts returned to his role in '06. However after posting a remarkable 229 ERA+ for the World champs, Cotts came crashing back down to earth posting a pathetic 90 ERA+ last season. The second lefty in '05 was Damaso Marte who basically blew ass for most of the '05 season and was nearly kicked off the team in September. His lousy 118 ERA+ was first replaced by Boone Logan (bad) but his role was quickly filled by Matt Thornton stepped up with a very nice 140 ERA+

 

RIGHTIES: I'm going to keep this one real simple. 2005 Cliff Politte = AWESOME (222 ERA+), 2006 Cliff Politte = TRAINWRECK (54 ERA+). So he was replaced at the All Star Break by the very very studly fireballer Mike MacDougal (259 ERA+). Vizcaino's 119 ERA+ was replaced by Riske's 118 so that's basically a wash.

 

2005 Pitching Staff ERA+ = 123

2006 Pitching Staff ERA+ = 101

 

So as for these wholesale changes that were made from '05 going into '06, the offense was exceptionally better so I'm not even going to bother with Everett, Rowand, Timo, Harris Widger, Anderson, Thome, Macowiak, Cintron and Alomar. 2005 offense = 4.57 Run/game, 2006 offense = 5.36 Runs/game.

 

The pitching is where the Sox win or lose their games and it's fairly appearant that the '06 pitching staff paled in comparison to its '05 counterpart despite featuring many of the same key players.

 

I know this is incredibly unscientific and very flawed since I only used 1 stat for all players but I do believe it got the point across, the 2006 White Sox did not underachieve because of some changes in the offseason, they underachieved because the pitchers who came up big in '05 decided to take a year off in '06.