Freddy or Javy?

[beck72]

I started this a bit in the "Freddy to the Angels?" thread. But it got me thinking. At first glance, trading Freddy would seem a no-brainer. He didn't look the same pitcher he was in 2005 for most of 06. He'll be a FA after '07. And Javy has two more years with the sox, and has far better pure "stuff" than Freddy. And he started coming around at the end.

 

But, if the sox do trade Freddy, what can they realistically expect in return? Not the same prospects that trading Javy could. The sox could probably get for Freddy a decent SP prospect like Tyler Clippard from the Yanks and a bullpen guy--maybe Chris Britton who the yanks got from the O's, and maybe a lower level prospect.

 

Yet if the sox traded Vazquez, they likely could get John Danks from the Rangers and Masset, another bullpen guy similar to Britton. Danks has far greater potential than Clippard. But he's more likely to step right in in 2008 and give the sox the 2007 version of Bmac probably will [a 4.50 ERA and 190 IP]

 

Now if the Yanks want to trade Humberto Sanchez instead of Clippard, then that might change my thinking. But few teams will give up one of their 1-2 top prospects for a 1 yr rental. They are more likely if they can have the guy for 2 yrs, as is the case with Javy.

 

Keeping Freddy over Javy for 2007 is probably an improvement, and would make for a stronger rotation. Esp if Freddy's velocity was down due to overwork, and if the prognosis for pitching at full strength looks good. He should be able to post a sub 4.00 era in 07. Will Javy? that's a crapshoot.

 

The sox won't re-sign both MB and Freddy, with MB more likely. Offer arb. to Freddy, and get picks for him.

Danks then could step into the 08 rotation, filling Freddy's spot.

 

With that in mind, I'm thinking

10 yrs of Danks, 1 yr of Freddy, + 2- 1st rd draft picks in the 2008 draft

 

>>>

 

2 yrs of Javy, 10 years of a Tyler Clippard type SP acquired in a Freddy trade]

or / 1 yr of Javy and 10 yrs of a CLippard along with the players acquired of Javy were traded in the 07 offseason [which may not be much, depending on how his 2007 season goes]

 

Thoughts?

[DBAHO]

All depends on the return.

 

You'd expect to get more for Javy because he's signed for longer, and I would expect if Javy stayed with the Sox that he would continually improve under Coop and become more consistent.

 

If trading a Javy gets you a Hurley or Pelfrey, by all means do that deal. I'd put Danks just in a lower tier (although I still love him as a prospect, because he offers you something that we don't have, a potential dominant lefty starter) below those 2.

 

Out of the 2 scenarios there Beck, the 1st one certainly sounds more beneficial for us.

[bulokis]

I'd pick Javy to be traded. I did not like how he pitched when he was here but dont get me wrong, he has the goods to be a good pitcher. With that in mind, getting sombebody for him who can step up in our rotation in the future would be more benefitial.

[beck72]

All depends on the return.

 

You'd expect to get more for Javy because he's signed for longer, and I would expect if Javy stayed with the Sox that he would continually improve under Coop and become more consistent.

 

If trading a Javy gets you a Hurley or Pelfrey, by all means do that deal. I'd put Danks just in a lower tier (although I still love him as a prospect, because he offers you something that we don't have, a potential dominant lefty starter) below those 2.

 

Out of the 2 scenarios there Beck, the 1st one certainly sounds more beneficial for us.

From the sounds of it, Tex. or the Mets could give the sox that kind of top prospect for Javy.

 

The sox should get someone who could step right in the rotation mid season or definitely in 2008 for Javy. That is less likely in a deal for Freddy

[Dick Allen]

Vazquez is only signed through 2007 although under the team's control through 2008, but that would be an arbitration year. With what very mediocre pitching seems to be commanding these days, if Vazquez somehow had a decent year, you're looking at probably $14 million+ for 2008. No thanks.

[Gregory Pratt]

I'm always amazed when I go through posts about our rotation on SoxTalk and see Garland as the number one starter and McCarthy either at number two or three and Buehrle/Contreras are at the back of the rotation. I'm under the impression that Garland wouldn't win anywhere near as many games as he's won in the last two games if he were named our number one/number two because I still believe that Jon Garland is a slightly-above-average pitcher.

 

The only thing about Javier that gives me pause about trading him is his K total. It be nice to have a Sox pitcher who can K guys consistently. I think it's kind of cool that Javier is fifth in total strikeouts amongst MLB pitchers since 2000, although I still feel antsy about him as a starter because of his lack of composure on the mound. But that said, I was impressed by his change to his delivery with runners on in late-2006, and I was impressed by the fact that he just about stopped blowing up in August on up.

 

Of course, I don't really want Freddy to go, either, but he is the one who makes most sense from a financial standpoint. Personally, though, I wouldn't be too mad if we could deal Vazquez to the Mets and Garland to the Rangers and stock up on young pitching and, I don't know, extend extensions to Garcia and Buehrle.

[SABR Sox]

As far as each pitcher is concered, Javy is the better guy.

 

Great peripherals, whereas Garcia's have completley fallen these past few years. He's a good candidate for "Josh Towers 2007."

 

But it does depend on the return, and that package of Otsuka + Masset+ Danks rumored for Vazquez would be tough for me to turn down.

[Gregory Pratt]

With starters Javier Vazquez, Mark Buehrle and Garcia attracting the most interest in talks, Williams did acknowledge a scenario existed where the Sox could trade one starter for a young pitching prospect, sign one to an extension and let one leave via free agency for a compensation draft pick.

 

Probably Buehrle, on the bold, but you never know with KW.

[Ozzie's Accent]

I wonder how much Ozzie family connection to Freddy Garcia would play into this? Not to suggest that it is Ozzie's decision but I wonder if he would be the one traded all things being equal.

[RME JICO]

As far as each pitcher is concered, Javy is the better guy.

 

Great peripherals, whereas Garcia's have completley fallen these past few years. He's a good candidate for "Josh Towers 2007."

 

But it does depend on the return, and that package of Otsuka + Masset+ Danks rumored for Vazquez would be tough for me to turn down.

 

Peripherals don't always translate to in-game performance as shown by Vazquez throughout most of his career. His contract would appeal to more teams and you could use the peripherals argument to your advantage.

 

I would take Otsuka/Masset/Danks for Vazquez in a heartbeat.

[Chet Lemon]

I think Vazquez deserves another shot in our rotation next season, but Freddy should be traded. Unless an obvious deal comes along you can't turn down, hold onto Vazquez.

[kwolf68]

Get rid of Javy...he is a mediocre pitcher and always will be....I'd like to keep at least a few of the players from our World Series team and Garcia really found a new groove with his fork ball late last year...Keep FG

[southsideirish71]

Whoever gets more on the market. After 06, no pitcher held the title "untouchable"

 

If I had to make a list on who should be the 1st to go however.

 

1.Garcia

2.Count

3.Garland

4.Javy

5.Buehrle

6.Mac

 

 

This is my thought also. If we can upgrade with a top young pitcher whomever gets us the best one is the one to go.

[TLAK]

Last year was a down year for Freddy, by his own admision he didn't have his fast ball and pitched tired all season. But he only had 8 bad starts. Compare to Javy, who without any physical difficulty, had 12 bad starts. We saw the worst we can get from Garcia, and the best we will ever get out of Vazquez. And Freddy was head and shoulders better.

 

Please, please, please get Javy off the team. Please.

[cwsfan13]

The worst out of Garcia ...Ill buy that but not the best out of Javy. Javy has too good of stuff to be that bad. If he could pull his head out of his ass he would get back to pitching like he did for the Expos.

 

The guy has alot of life on his fastball, a great slider, a good curve (when he doesnt hang it ) and a descent change. He still has good years ahead of him.

[TLAK]

Absolute Bulls***, and you have no way to prove it.

I assume you mean the 12 bad starts, Tony? Count 'em:

Date                    IP     ER
04/14/2006    Vazquez    6     7
05/13/2006    Vazquez    5 2/3 7
05/18/2006    Vazquez    7     5
06/03/2006    Vazquez    6 1/3 5
06/14/2006    Vazquez    6     6
06/25/2006    Vazquez    6     9
07/01/2006    Vazquez    6     5
07/19/2006    Vazquez    6     5
07/24/2006    Vazquez    6     5
07/30/2006    Vazquez    5 1/3 5
09/26/2006    Vazquez    7     6
10/01/2006    Vazquez    4 2/3 4

[TLAK]

The worst out of Garcia ...Ill buy that but not the best out of Javy. Javy has too good of stuff to be that bad. If he could pull his head out of his ass he would get back to pitching like he did for the Expos.

 

The guy has alot of life on his fastball, a great slider, a good curve (when he doesnt hang it ) and a descent change. He still has good years ahead of him.

 

He was 64-68 with the Expos .

 

Then he went 14-10 with the Yankees.

Then 11-15 with Arizona.

Then 11-12 with The White Sox.

 

If someone could demonstrate to me Javy's tremendous upside, which has not been evident in NINE FREAKING MAJOR LEAGUE SEASONS, I'll change my opinion. Until then I will call a dog a dog.

[103 mph screwball]

If the Sox decide to keep Freddie and have a deal lined up for one of the other pitchers, they should offer Freddie an extension similar to Garland and JC last off season. Freddie might agree if he really wants to stay. Give him an 07 no trade clause and lock him up through 2009. If he's not worth an extension, trade him and keep the others.

 

I'd like to keep Freddie and trade Javier if I was choosing between the two based on my observations and gut feeling. I definately wouldn't want to trade Garland without locking up Freddie and getting a king's ransom in return. KW, Ozzie, and Coop know much more about the health and circumstances of the 06 season. I hope they make the right decison.

[cwsfan13]

He was 64-68 with the Expos .

 

Then he went 14-10 with the Yankees.

Then 11-15 with Arizona.

Then 11-12 with The White Sox.

 

If someone could demonstrate to me Javy's tremendous upside, which has not been evident in NINE FREAKING MAJOR LEAGUE SEASONS, I'll change my opinion. Until then I will call a dog a dog.

Well I cant argue with you on the #s. They do speak for themselves.

 

I dont know what happened to him with the Sox, Spanks and the D-backs but the Expos were a s***ty team for a long time and his #s are more than good enuff to have a plus 500 record.

 

As far as up-side Im looking at nothing but his stuff. He did show at times last season what hes capable of when hes locating and keeping that curve-ball down.

[witesoxfan]

I assume you mean the 12 bad starts, Tony? Count 'em:

Date                    IP     ER
04/14/2006    Vazquez    6     7
05/13/2006    Vazquez    5 2/3 7
05/18/2006    Vazquez    7     5
06/03/2006    Vazquez    6 1/3 5
06/14/2006    Vazquez    6     6
06/25/2006    Vazquez    6     9
07/01/2006    Vazquez    6     5
07/19/2006    Vazquez    6     5
07/24/2006    Vazquez    6     5
07/30/2006    Vazquez    5 1/3 5
09/26/2006    Vazquez    7     6
10/01/2006    Vazquez    4 2/3 4

 

Someone please look up Garcia's gamelog for this year, because I am almost positive he had 10-12 bad starts too.

 

My computer is lagging like a mofo right now.

[cwsfan13]

Someone please look up Garcia's gamelog for this year, because I am almost positive he had 10-12 bad starts too.

 

My computer is lagging like a mofo right now.

I counted 14 bad starts last year. Thats 14 games with 4 plus earned runs which seamed to be the criteria used for Javy.

[beck72]

Well it sounds like both JAvy and Freddy might stay. Dealing Garland would certainly return more than both the guys mentioned in this thread. Which seemed to be the consensus--deal the guy who could bring the greatest return.

 

BTW, arguing over who is better--Javy or Freddy--is pointless. There are far better ways to spend an evening

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(R.Sweeney @ Nov 18, 2006 -> 06:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I counted 14 bad starts last year. Thats 14 games with 4 plus earned runs which seamed to be the criteria used for Javy.

Buehrle had 15, Contreras had 13, and Garland had 13. I guess Vazquez was our best last season.

[103 mph screwball]

Freddie had to learn to pitch with an 86 mph fastball. If he regains his velocity, he could be dominant. That's a big if, but it should be seriously considered before a trade. I'd hate to hear about Freddie the multiple Cy Young award winner for the Angels or Rangers.

[cwsfan13]

Buehrle had 15, Contreras had 13, and Garland had 13. I guess Vazquez was our best last season.

Well I think its safe to say that all of our starters under-achieved last season.