This market is way overblown

[joeynach]

Anyone else think this years FA market is completely overblown and out of whack. Just look at these ridiculous contracts for average and above average players, I dont think they are worth any of it. Matthews getting 5 years 50, Pierre 5 years 45, and now Carlos Lee getting 6 years 100 mil my gosh. This is ridiculous I dont think any of these players are worth that much, they probably arent even all stars let alone franchise players. Vlad and Tejada are bargains now, I really hope KW keeps hes head on straight and doesn't over pay for any guys who really aren't that good. Im sorry but I even find it hard to value carlos lee worth anything more than 10 mil and Pierre anything over 6 mil.

 

I think standing pat is the right thing to do with the sox it will put us in better position a few years down the line than being strapped with overpriced aging one year wonders. I really think Pods is now a better option in LF than any other FA, our in house guys are better values than FA bullpen guys, etc. Anyone else agree?

[elrockinMT]

I think Pods has a a lot of upside plus that's why you have farm systems: homegrown talent deserves a chance and they are far easier on the club pocket book.

[Balta1701]

Just saying this to get it out there...if the trade market winds up being as overblown as the Free Agent market currently is...then there may never be as good of a time for a rebuilding season as this year.

[AirScott]

"This market is way overblown."

 

duh.

[103 mph screwball]

Just saying this to get it out there...if the trade market winds up being as overblown as the Free Agent market currently is...then there may never be as good of a time for a rebuilding season as this year.

 

Talent wise, I'll agree with you 100%. Rebuilding now, after such a successful season ticket renewal and with another title realistically possible would be a marketing disaster for the Sox. It would stink of cheap, white flag trade, and small market team. Move Crede and Garland and whoever and rebuild in 2008 if 2007 is a failure. I'd be CRUSHED if they "rebuilt" by trading more than one starter for prospects.

 

The free agent market is just NUTS. I don't think it can continue like this for many offseasons without ruining the game.

[Flash Tizzle]

Talent wise, I'll agree with you 100%. Rebuilding now, after such a successful season ticket renewal and with another title realistically possible would be a marketing disaster for the Sox. It would stink of cheap, white flag trade, and small market team. Move Crede and Garland and whoever and rebuild in 2008 if 2007 is a failure. I'd be CRUSHED if they "rebuilt" by trading more than one starter for prospects.

 

The free agent market is just NUTS. I don't think it can continue like this for many offseasons without ruining the game.

You suggest rebuilding the team after next season if it's a 'failure.' First, define failure. If next years ballclub were to win 82 games, you'd consider it a failure, no? Or would you believe whoever tailed off merely had a poor season and we should maintain them for 2008? There needs to be clear, indisputable guidelines for determining our success.

 

I believe it's foolish not to prepare beyond 2007. You can't just rest your hopes on one season; and if it doesnt go how we wish, completely disband the ballclub. If this philosophy were truly felt by Williams, why doesn't he trade McCarthy -- as well as the remaining prospects of value -- and go all out next season?

[spiderman]

It's easy to have "upside" when you were that bad the previous season...

 

So, who do you want to play LF next season ?

 

You want to get into a bidding war for a free agent OF ?

[spiderman]

There are a few options.

 

1st, you look at Roberts. I dont have much of a problem giving Roberts a big deal as long as its for 3 years. Any longer, and its no deal. A 3 year deal isn't going to wreck the franchise. If that doesnt work...

 

2nd, you look to Figgins. From everything I have seen, he is on the block. I have a hard time beleiving that Anaheim things a Figgins for Crede swap straight up is fair, so if he can be had for less than that,you see what you can get. You get Figgins on board, Mackowiak becomes expendable(he pretty much is already,and I like Mack) and you can get possibly another bullpen arm or something for Mackowiak. No go on that...

 

Maybe you look at Crisp. I have a feeling with Manny being shopped a little, they might not move Crisp, but im sure he can be had, so you look at Crisp. That doesn't work out...

 

You look at Sweeney/Fields, and find a leadoff hitter in another position. Look at Rollins/Furcal/Young. See what it will take to pry them away.

All of those are realistic options,(or somewhat realistic) and I didnt even go down the Manny route.

 

Figgins would be a nice acquistion, but I'm not sure he's an everyday LF - I like him more for Mackowiak's role in that he could rest guys all over the field (2B, 3B, LF specifically). I wouldn't trade Joe Crede to do that though.

 

I'm against Dave Roberts in any form. The guy is no better than what we have. He's coming off a nice year, but I'd rather just sink or swim with Sweeney/Pods, and allocate the $$$$ elsewhere.

 

I agree with you on Crisp - he'd be perfect for what we're looking for in CF, but I tend to think he'll be staying in Boston with Manny possibly on the move.

 

Going back to Figgins, I wonder if a Mackowiak/minor league pitcher isn't enough to get a deal done. Figgins didn't have a great year, I'm not sure if he'll have a position next season in Anaheim or if he'll be moving around, but if they're looking for a guy who's content to be ulitilty player, Mackowiak could fill that role. Obviously, the pitcher would have to be at least a B level prospect.

[kevo880]

Figgins would be a nice acquistion, but I'm not sure he's an everyday LF - I like him more for Mackowiak's role in that he could rest guys all over the field (2B, 3B, LF specifically). I wouldn't trade Joe Crede to do that though.

 

I'm against Dave Roberts in any form. The guy is no better than what we have. He's coming off a nice year, but I'd rather just sink or swim with Sweeney/Pods, and allocate the $$$$ elsewhere.

 

I agree with you on Crisp - he'd be perfect for what we're looking for in CF, but I tend to think he'll be staying in Boston with Manny possibly on the move.

 

Going back to Figgins, I wonder if a Mackowiak/minor league pitcher isn't enough to get a deal done. Figgins didn't have a great year, I'm not sure if he'll have a position next season in Anaheim or if he'll be moving around, but if they're looking for a guy who's content to be ulitilty player, Mackowiak could fill that role. Obviously, the pitcher would have to be at least a B level prospect.

 

 

I don't think Mackowiak and B level prospect is enough for Chone Figgins. Figgins>Mack by a decent amount and they play the same role basically. Why would a B level pitching prospect intrigue them so much to move figgins?

[chitownsportsfan]

Really the market is right where it should be according to supply and demand. Demand is way up as MLB is swimming in cash and most of the middle market teams have risen along with the tide. Even small market clubs like the Royals are making good money -- they just aren't investing it back into the club.

 

Add to the mix the already cash laden large market teams and demand is sky high. Take into acount that the market has "checked" itself the past few years after the A-Rod year bonanza and that their aren't that many quality FA's and it makes perfect sense.

[joeynach]

This is why Shannon stewart is becoming more and more intising. I know hes often injured but it would be a low risk if we could get him for an incentive laden deal with an option or something. If he can stay healty, which he might not playing on turf and with the best med staff in the game he could be huge for us. A .300 hitter with a .360 obp playing left field for an affordable price. If he did well I wouldn't hesistate to give him 3 years 21 mil or something.

[ptatc]

This is why Shannon stewart is becoming more and more intising. I know hes often injured but it would be a low risk if we could get him for an incentive laden deal with an option or something. If he can stay healty, which he might not playing on turf and with the best med staff in the game he could be huge for us. A .300 hitter with a .360 obp playing left field for an affordable price. If he did well I wouldn't hesistate to give him 3 years 21 mil or something.

 

Beware of outfeilders with foot problems, it's worse than chronic hamstring problems. A DH like Thomas could get by. An outfielder cannot. Do not sign him.

[Balta1701]

I don't think Mackowiak and B level prospect is enough for Chone Figgins. Figgins>Mack by a decent amount and they play the same role basically. Why would a B level pitching prospect intrigue them so much to move figgins?

That's a question of what you have and what you need. Now that the Halos have signed Matthews, they may just not want to have the need to find playing time for a guy like Figgins. Mackowiak, as mainly a backup player, does have more power than Figgins, may be able to hold together a higher OBP, and will almost certainly cost less over time. Figgins has somewhat more value than Mack, but the difference to my eyes really isn't huge in terms of trade value.

 

Beware of outfeilders with foot problems, it's worse than chronic hamstring problems. A DH like Thomas could get by. An outfielder cannot. Do not sign him.

Kenny Williams has one of the best trainers in baseball working for him. He managed to take a look at a guy who missed almost all of 2005 and realize he had 40+ home runs in him in 06, he managed to realize that Jermaine Dye's injury history would be in the past in 2005, etc. If KW and Schuler could be convinced that his foot problem would not be a nagging problem, that's a decision I'd trust. But that's entirely up to them. A 1 year deal as a place-holder for Sweeney/Fields might not be a bad thing. But I keep liking Milledge, personally.

 

Add to the mix the already cash laden large market teams and demand is sky high. Take into acount that the market has "checked" itself the past few years after the A-Rod year bonanza and that their aren't that many quality FA's and it makes perfect sense.

Beyond that, there are 2-3 teams who do have a ton of money who are spending like desperate, drunken sailors. Specifically, Toronto and the North Siders and the Astros...they've literally redefined the bottom of the market in the past year or so through the fact that they're desperate for rapid improvement.

[Balta1701]

You suggest rebuilding the team after next season if it's a 'failure.' First, define failure. If next years ballclub were to win 82 games, you'd consider it a failure, no? Or would you believe whoever tailed off merely had a poor season and we should maintain them for 2008? There needs to be clear, indisputable guidelines for determining our success.

 

I believe it's foolish not to prepare beyond 2007. You can't just rest your hopes on one season; and if it doesnt go how we wish, completely disband the ballclub. If this philosophy were truly felt by Williams, why doesn't he trade McCarthy -- as well as the remaining prospects of value -- and go all out next season?

Flash, I think you and I are coming towards the same point of view on this offseason, at least by the looks of it.

 

My point of view is this; we have 4 key guys who are Free Agents after 2007, and a ton more who are free agents after 2008, and right now we don't have the talent to replace those guys in our system, nor do we have the money to resign them all at the current going rate.

 

The obvious solution, to my eyes, is some sort of compromise. We are NOT going to be able to resign Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye, Tadahito Iguchi, and Freddy Garcia at the end of 2007. More than likely, at least 1 starting pitcher is going to be traded to make room for BMac, but to my eyes, that still is not enough. And on top of that, you have a couple guys (Dye, Crede) coming off of career years, such that their value may never be higher than it is now.

 

We have 2 options from my eyes. We hold onto these guys, and wind up stockpiling draft picks after 2007. Or, we sign as many of them as we can (#1 priority = Buehrle), and we use the guys we are potentially going to lose to rebuild our minor leagues right now. I mean, look, the Dodgers just signed Juan Pierre and Nomah...with Ethier, Loney, Nomar, Pierre, and Kemp, either Loney or Kemp is going to be left without a spot to play, and they have other guys out there too as backups...so they literally have to find someone to move. And they are looking for a right handed power bat, since that was a key piece they were missing last year. Don't you at least have to look at the possibility of making a deal for a guy like Kemp and one of the Dodgers pitching prospects for Dye?

 

If teams won't meet our prices, then we try to resign all the people we can, except for dealing either Garcia/Buehrle to open a spot for BMac. But if there are this many teams this desperate to win now, I just can't help but think about a rotation in 2008-2009 of Buehrle, Garland, McCarthy, and 2 other ace young guys we pick up this year (Billingsley, Pelfrey, etc.), an outfield of Milledge/Anderson/Kemp/Sweeney, an infield with Crede, some good youth at SS and 2nd, and Konerko/Thome at first, and plenty of talent for KW to deal at the trading deadline if he so desires.

 

If we make the right deals, I think we could still compete next year, especially if we manage to hold onto a top 4 of Mccarthy, Garland, Buehrle, and Contreras with a solid young #5. But even if we miss the playoffs again, I think I would rather do so with a young team on the verge of ripping the AL Central apart in 08 than I would with an old team about to turn into 6 draft picks when 3 guys leave at the end of 07.