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Whats Buehrle worth now?


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QUOTE(Cerbaho-WG @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 02:06 PM)
If you offer something like 6/90 and he turns it down, a lot of the fans will live with it. Of course the ignoramuses will b**** and moan for a while, but I'd rather go the arbitration route with him.

 

The sox will not be giving MB 6 years. I think the only pitcher they would give 6 years to might be Johan and thats a big maybe. I wouldnt expect anything more than a 4 year 60-75 million offer deal to MB.

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No it wouldn't. Logic might tell you that makes sense, but there would be plenty of b****ing in the fan base about that.

There would be some fan b****ing. But if you used that money to bring in some good major league player(s), that would really help appease the fan base. This is particularly true if Buehrle has another non-ace season in 2007. If he shows himself not to be an ace for two years, then I don't think most fans would be saying, "give him anything he wants."

 

If you offer something like 6/90 and he turns it down, a lot of the fans will live with it. Of course the ignoramuses will b**** and moan for a while, but I'd rather go the arbitration route with him.

I wouldn't ever offer Buehlre a 6-year deal. There are very few pitchers good enough to warrant that kind of long-term risk. And Buehrle has a hell of a lot of innings and pitches on that arm.

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I actually think you simply let Buerhle pitch next year. So what, let him walk after next year. This is exactly why we have all these prospects lined up....so that someone can step up the year after next. And if by chance we are out of it by the trade deadline, then trade him for whatever we can get to the highest bidder.

 

By making Buerhle pitch next year for us, he will be motivated to pitch well given the pay day is around the corner. And we get a solid 2007 season (playoff bound?) and have a very solid nucleus for pitching even if 50% of these prospects pan out by the year after.

 

What I would like to see the Sox do instead now is see if they can sign some low risk high reward kinda pitcher from the market. I am talking something like the Loaiza deal from some years back. Those kinda signings are huge in a market like this.

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Scouts were asked who the best available pitchers this offseason were.

 

Here are scouts' choices, although it was not unanimous:

 

Schmidt was the winner on every ballot except one. Lefty Barry Zito, five years younger than Schmidt, was second and then came the surprise.

 

The third, fourth and fifth spots went to the White Sox's Garcia, Javier Vazquez and Mark Buehrle, although the opinions varied widely on whether Vazquez was more desirable than Buehrle.

 

I doubt that's what he was referring though it might be. (I'm not sure I agree with the assessments of these scouts. Though I don't disagree, either.)

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Right now KW should be on the phone to Omar Minaya, probably about Javier Vazquez I imagine.

 

Pelfrey and Milledge should be the asking price, or Pelfrey, Humber and a fringe prospect.

 

And yes I know if we make this trade it'll weaken our chances of winning the division in 2007.

 

But who's to say if Pelfrey wasn't acquired, he wouldn't pitch well in our rotation? A guy like Jon Lester did pretty well for the Red Sox for example.

 

Plus imagine a future rotation containing 3 of the top 10 LHP prospects in baseball today with Pelfrey, Danks and Gio. We'd control them for 6 seasons, and we would contend in this division for a long time. :D

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QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 02:07 PM)
Right now KW should be on the phone to Omar Minaya, probably about Javier Vazquez I imagine.

 

Pelfrey and Milledge should be the asking price, or Pelfrey, Humber and a fringe prospect.

And yes I know if we make this trade it'll weaken our chances of winning the division in 2007.

 

But who's to say if Pelfrey wasn't acquired, he wouldn't pitch well in our rotation? A guy like Jon Lester did pretty well for the Red Sox for example.

 

Plus imagine a future rotation containing 3 of the top 10 LHP prospects in baseball today with Pelfrey, Danks and Gio. We'd control them for 6 seasons, and we would contend in this division for a long time. :D

You're missing 1 little point there. Yes, Pelfrey/Humber would almost certainly be a downgrade from Buehrle next year. But then at the same time, think about what happens to the outfield when it goes from Podsednik/Anderson/Dye to Milledge/Anderson/Dye with Podsednik as the backup? Suddenly that OF hole that everyone is worried about is filled, along with more speed in the lineup and on the bench.

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Either the Mets sulk away and sign a guy like Jeff Weaver or they go out armed and prepared to make a crazy trade for an upper tier pitcher. If they're willing to part with an assortment of Milledge, Pelfrey, Heilman, and/or Humber, let's keep the pitching sale a-goin'.

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QUOTE(SoxHawk1980 @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 02:13 PM)
There would be some fan b****ing. But if you used that money to bring in some good major league player(s), that would really help appease the fan base. This is particularly true if Buehrle has another non-ace season in 2007. If he shows himself not to be an ace for two years, then I don't think most fans would be saying, "give him anything he wants."

I wouldn't ever offer Buehlre a 6-year deal. There are very few pitchers good enough to warrant that kind of long-term risk. And Buehrle has a hell of a lot of innings and pitches on that arm.

 

Don't forget Buehrle had an All-Star first half last season.

 

I'm not saying this to disagree with your overall point, just pointing out that Buehrle had an All-Star first half.

Edited by shoota
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QUOTE(R.J. @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 10:15 PM)
Either the Mets sulk away and sign a guy like Jeff Weaver or they go out armed and prepared to make a crazy trade for an upper tier pitcher. If they're willing to part with an assortment of Milledge, Pelfrey, Heilman, and/or Humber, let's keep the pitching sale a-goin'.

 

Weaver should get the same $ as Lilly and that Ex Seattle guy right?

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QUOTE(sircaffey @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 04:33 PM)
The solution for no fan uproar...Trade Vazquez. Frees up a lot of money, and you can offer an extension to Buehrle and be able to afford it with the young guys moving in. Makes sense if the Mets are interested.

 

The White Sox aren't extending Mark Buehrle.

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QUOTE(sircaffey @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 10:33 PM)
The solution for no fan uproar...Trade Vazquez. Frees up a lot of money, and you can offer an extension to Buehrle and be able to afford it with the young guys moving in. Makes sense if the Mets are interested.

 

Kenny has a huge hard on for Vazquez.... :huh:

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QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 04:35 PM)
The White Sox aren't extending Mark Buehrle.

 

If the Sox have 4-5 capable young pieces to move into the rotation in the next 4-5 years, then I could definitely see them spending for someone like Buehrle to anchor the rotation. I highly doubt they go all young, and unproven in the next 2 years. They'll keep someone around long-term. Most likely Jon or Mark.

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QUOTE(sircaffey @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 04:38 PM)
If the Sox have 4-5 capable young pieces to move into the rotation in the next 4-5 years, then I could definitely see them spending for someone like Buehrle to anchor the rotation. I highly doubt they go all young, and unproven in the next 2 years. They'll keep someone around long-term. Most likely Jon or Mark.

 

I think it'll be Garland and Contreras since I believe they're signed the longest. I know Contreras isn't being dealt as he's got a NTC for this season.

 

This isn't a franchise that'll extend Mark Buehrle for six years at 100 million. If they do extend him it'll be because he took a huge discount, IMO, but I don't know that that'll do it since the Sox don't believe in contracts for pitchers passed three years.

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Something to keep in mind too... when we traded Garcia, that freed up 9M per year essentially. So now, if we did sign MB to a new contract/extension, adding that to the 9.5M his option costs, and suddenly you have 18.5M a year available for him. So, if you wanted to sign him and could (for, say, 17M per), you'd be able to afford it with no net hit on the salary of the starting 5.

 

Just sayin'.

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I believe trading Buehrle will be entirely dependent upon Minaya's willingness to depart with Pelfrey. Another, which no one has mentioned within this thread, is Roger Clemens. Atleast how I perceive it.

 

Williams trades Buehrle, I don't believe many fans will attach themselves to the organization's philosophy of refusing to extend a pitcher's contract beyond three years. This is inevitable; but as the McCarthy deal has shown, Williams is willing to endure fan backlash.

 

To offset such an onslaught of criticism, he absolutely HAS to sign Roger Clemens. I don't care that nearly everyone thinks it's remote, even if Buehrle nets a tremendous package (though I have doubts about Williams accomplishing this), Clemens should be signed for a 1yr deal.

Edited by Flash Tizzle
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QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 04:41 PM)
I think it'll be Garland and Contreras since I believe they're signed the longest. I know Contreras isn't being dealt as he's got a NTC for this season.

 

This isn't a franchise that'll extend Mark Buehrle for six years at 100 million. If they do extend him it'll be because he took a huge discount, IMO, but I don't know that that'll do it since the Sox don't believe in contracts for pitchers passed three years.

 

Garland is a FA in 2 years, Contreras as well. The Sox will have to sign someone long-term unless they want to go extremely young and unproven. I highly doubt they will resign Conteras being that he'll probably be 48 in 2009. Garland or Buehrle are the obvious choices, unless the young talent (Floyd, Haeger, Sisco, Gonzalez, Broadway, etc.) progress much faster than expected.

 

The Sox were also a team that wasn't going to trade away 2007 talent. The market changed that. The market will change the Sox thinking on long-term deals for SP or else the Sox wont be able to contend for a while.

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Is there ANYTHING to suggest that the White Sox are actively attempting to pick up Roger Clemens? I mean, it's all well and good for you guys to say, "I'd love to have Roger," or "It's dependent on picking up Clemens," but are the wheels even turning on that?

 

QUOTE(sircaffey @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 05:01 PM)
Garland is a FA in 2 years, Contreras as well. The Sox will have to sign someone long-term unless they want to go extremely young and unproven. I highly doubt they will resign Conteras being that he'll probably be 48 in 2009. Garland or Buehrle are the obvious choices, unless the young talent (Floyd, Haeger, Sisco, Gonzalez, Broadway, etc.) progress much faster than expected.

 

The Sox were also a team that wasn't going to trade away 2007 talent. The market changed that. The market will change the Sox thinking on long-term deals for SP or else the Sox wont be able to contend for a while.

 

I hope you're right. I don't think so, though.

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QUOTE(sircaffey @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 05:01 PM)
Garland is a FA in 2 years, Contreras as well. The Sox will have to sign someone long-term unless they want to go extremely young and unproven. I highly doubt they will resign Conteras being that he'll probably be 48 in 2009. Garland or Buehrle are the obvious choices, unless the young talent (Floyd, Haeger, Sisco, Gonzalez, Broadway, etc.) progress much faster than expected.

 

The Sox were also a team that wasn't going to trade away 2007 talent. The market changed that. The market will change the Sox thinking on long-term deals for SP or else the Sox wont be able to contend for a while.

So you honestly believe the Sox would be willing to shell out 6 years (even though they refuse to go any higher than 3 years with pitchers) and $100M+ to Buehrle? Given the organizations history of giving out contracts and their continued stance on pitching contracts I don't see how anyone could believe Buehrle will be retained beyond '07.

 

QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 05:04 PM)
Is there ANYTHING to suggest that the White Sox are actively attempting to pick up Roger Clemens? I mean, it's all well and good for you guys to say, "I'd love to have Roger," or "It's dependent on picking up Clemens," but are the wheels even turning on that?

Clemens' name has not come up in any substantial rumors this offseason. He will not be pitching for the Sox next year it's really as simple as that.

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Dec 28, 2006 -> 05:04 PM)
So you honestly believe the Sox would be willing to shell out 6 years (even though they refuse to go any higher than 3 years with pitchers) and $100M+ to Buehrle? Given the organizations history of giving out contracts and their continued stance on pitching contracts I don't see how anyone could believe Buehrle will be retained beyond '07.

 

The market has never been this way with pitchers in the past. This organization has been able to get away with 3 year deals in the past, but you just can't do that anymore. Things change. If there is a pitcher out there that this organization is going to give 6 years to it'd be the most durable SP in the majors for the past 4-5 season in Buehrle.

 

I'm not saying you'll see a whole bunch of 6 year deals (not even 2 for that matter), but in order to keep the rotation stable in the next handful of years, someone is going to need to be resigned, and given Buehrle's history (performance and health) I think the Sox will make an exception.

Edited by sircaffey
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