3 Reasons Why The White Sox Will Contend in 07

[Chisoxfn]

Check out this new article by Kevin Morris as Soxtalk.com's front page makes its return as Soxtalk.com continues to do its best to remain the most informative White Sox & all around baseball site on the web.

 

Three Reasons Why the White Sox Will Contend in 07

By Kevin Morris

 

Are you growing sick of the doom spellers, the skeptics, and the doubters who scoff at every move Kenny Williams and the White Sox front office makes? Here are three reasons the South Siders will contend for a pennant and their second world series trophy in three years...MORE

[The Ginger Kid]

good read!

 

But I have a wait and see approach to the Tigers regressing. If Sheffield stays healthy and doesn't mind being a full time DH, then the Tigers are going to be tough to top. Still, I do think the wild card has a good chance of emerging from the central again.

[SoxHawk1980]

Here are three reasons the South Siders will contend for a pennant and their second world series trophy in three years

 

I think they'll contend for the division and have a chance to make the playoffs, but I can't say that they look like they have a very good shot of making it back to the WS.

 

Vastly improved bullpen? Vastly? As compared to the bullpen the Sox had in the second half of 2006, the 2007 bullpen subtracts Cotts, adds Aardsma, Masset and maybe Sisco. That's a vast improvement? Aardsma and Masset are inexperienced and little tested in the majors. They are big question marks. Sisco has been pretty awful recently and is an even bigger question mark. I like Thornton, but this the only good major league season he's ever had. And in 2006 he had mostly low leverage innings. In 2007 he'll be the #1 lefty setup man. And he's 30, so he's not exactly a young, developing kid.

Unlike last season, the bullpen will be defined by youth, power, and depth in at the minor league level.

Yes, this bullpen definitely has power. But depth? Yeah, there's a lot of them. But mostly this "depth" is untested kids. And I don't know that a bullpen "defined by youth" is a particularly good thing.

 

The section on "second tier hitter production" was full of fan optimism about only small drop offs from some players and significant improvements from many more players. Basically all the bad hitters are going to get better. Sounds like best case scenario to me.

 

Similarly, the article posits that the entire rotation is going to improve. Buehrle's season was a "fluke". Garland's second half was the real deal (apparently his first half was a fluke too). And apparently there are no worries about Vazquez and Contreras either. And then there's the 5th starter spot where the article's author hails AAA depth giving the Sox "flexibility in the 5th spot." Translation: we have many horses for the merry-go-round of rotation fifth starters. There is no mention in this article about the possibility that Buehrle's bad season might actually mean something. There is no mention that Garland's overall season production fell right back in line with most of the seasons in his major league career. There is no mention of the decline that most pitchers of Contreras's age experience.

 

Oh yes, and we'll get "better production out of center field" from a more capable backup to Brian Anderson. Who is this? Terrero? He's certainly better defensively in CF than Mackowiak, but he can't hit his weight. Terrero will catch more balls than Mack, but he'll also make a hell of a lot more outs at the plate. How is this a net improvement that will give us "more production"?

 

Just my humble opinions.

Edited December 29, 2006 by SoxHawk1980

[greg775]

Not to be a doomsayer either, but our bullpen remains a question mark.

The former Royals MacD and Sisco are not necessarily studs.

They could be ... but they remain question marks.

Same with Thornton.

Our team is one big question mark like most teams.

The only thing that appears certain is we will again score runs in the same

vicinity of last year. We won't score more, but we should have the same

offensive ability.

 

Starting pitching, bullpen, defense all could go either way.

Speed ... we seem slow.

[alk3kevin]

Vastly improved bullpen? Vastly? As compared to the bullpen the Sox had in the second half of 2006, the 2007 bullpen subtracts Cotts, adds Aardsma, Masset and maybe Sisco. That's a vast improvement? Aardsma and Masset are inexperienced and little tested in the majors. They are big question marks. Sisco has been pretty awful recently and is an even bigger question mark. I like Thornton, but this the only good major league season he's ever had. And in 2006 he had mostly low leverage innings. In 2007 he'll be the #1 lefty setup man. And he's 30, so he's not exactly a young, developing kid.

I don't really want to turn this into a debate about baseball theory, but I feel Kenny's strategy on the bullpen this season is top notch. Relief pitchers are relief pitchers for a reason, they aren't good enough to start. By plugging in guys with good stuff instead of "veteran" guys like Cliff Politte, Luis Vizcaino, or Dustin Hermanson can pay big dividends. Most, if not all of the pitchers in the pen will have 1. good stuff 2. great potential 3. tiny contract.

 

Relief pitchers fluctuate from year to year more than any other position in the game. Would you rather be in Cleveland's shoes?

Yes, this bullpen definitely has power. But depth? Yeah, there's a lot of them. But mostly this "depth" is untested kids. And I don't know that a bullpen "defined by youth" is a particularly good thing.

I meant to say depth at the minor league level. I'll fix it sometime. I know they're untested kids, but everyone has to get their shot sometime. I'll take the untested kids over the crusty veterans.

The section on "second tier hitter production" was full of fan optimism about only small drop offs from some players and significant improvements from many more players. Basically all the bad hitters are going to get better. Sounds like best case scenario to me.

In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but up. Uribe posted the worst year of his career, Podsednik was awful, Anderson was terrible. It's not too optimistic to think they'll improve, imo.

There is no mention that Garland's overall season production fell right back in line with most of the seasons in his major league career.

Actually, outside of Garland's WHIP, his peripherals resembled 2006.

Oh yes, and we'll get "better production out of center field" from a more capable backup to Brian Anderson. Who is this? Terrero? He's certainly better defensively in CF than Mackowiak, but he can't hit his weight. Terrero will catch more balls than Mack, but he'll also make a hell of a lot more outs at the plate. How is this a net improvement that will give us "more production"?

Luis only has 486 PA in his career. Saying he definitively can't hit is kind of short sighted. He's succeeded in the minor leagues, and could do the same in the majors.

 

Thanks for the comments guys, both critical and kind.

[SoxHawk1980]

I don't really want to turn this into a debate about baseball theory, but I feel Kenny's strategy on the bullpen this season is top notch. Relief pitchers are relief pitchers for a reason, they aren't good enough to start. By plugging in guys with good stuff instead of "veteran" guys like Cliff Politte, Luis Vizcaino, or Dustin Hermanson can pay big dividends. Most, if not all of the pitchers in the pen will have 1. good stuff 2. great potential 3. tiny contract.

All pitchers need command and control in addition to their stuff. It appears that KW has worked hard to add velocity to the bullpen. It takes more than velocity.

I meant to say depth at the minor league level. I'll fix it sometime. I know they're untested kids, but everyone has to get their shot sometime. I'll take the untested kids over the crusty veterans.

Yes, the AAA bullpen has depth. The major league bullpen does not. That's a problem for the major league team and is one of the reasons this bullpen is not greatly improved. Yes, every player has to get their shot sometime. Hopefully if they are ready to perform well at the major league level. I don't know how many of these guys are. That's a problem for the Sox.

In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but up. Uribe posted the worst year of his career, Podsednik was awful, Anderson was terrible. It's not too optimistic to think they'll improve, imo.

Uribe's 2006 was very similar to his 2005. I think that's the kind of hitter he is. In 2004, he variable might have used some supplements to help his power. If he improves, I think it will be minimal. Podsednik wasn't just awful last year. He is awful. He basically had one good year for Milwaukee and that wasn't too recent. His skills have diminished to the point where he is a zero-tool player. He isn't good at anything, and I don't expect him to get any better as he ages. I think Anderson will do somewhat better. The improvement could be significant, or minimal. His improvement over the course of the 2006 season didn't give me great reason for optimism. He went from awful hitting in the first half of the season to merely bad hitting in the second half. I wish I had seen some actual good hitting from him. I don't know how much of that we can expect in 2007.

Actually, outside of Garland's WHIP, his peripherals resembled 2006.

His ERA was just like 2002, 2003 and 2004, which is basically his career average. 2005 is clearly an outlier. Now, what about his peripherals? His WHIP was back to his old (major league average form). His K/9 was actually below his career average and worse than 2002 and 2003. His K/BB was better because he gave up fewer walks. Overall, his peripherals were very similar to the rest of his career. About major league average. Average is exactly what we should expect from Jonny.

Luis only has 486 PA in his career. Saying he definitively can't hit is kind of short sighted. He's succeeded in the minor leagues, and could do the same in the majors.

Luis has parts of 4 major league seasons to prove that he's a major league player. In that time, he hasn't shown much at the plate. I think he's shown that he can't hit. And it isn't like he was some great hitting prospect in the minors. In 1016 career AAA AB's, his OBP was .357 and his SLG was .479 for an OPS of .836. That's a pretty good AAA hitter. It shouldn't be surprising that a guy who is only a pretty good AAA hitter can't hit in the majors. That's pretty common. He isn't half the hitter Mackowiak is. But he's twice the fielder. So now BA has a backup who can field but can't hit. That's not a net improvement.

Thanks for the comments guys, both critical and kind.

It was a good article, but I just think it needs more balance. These guys have downside as well as upside.

[alk3kevin]

FWIW, I was pretty much playing devil's advocate. I was planning on writing 3 reasons why we won't contend next week.

[Kyyle23]

All pitchers need command and control in addition to their stuff. It appears that KW has worked hard to add velocity to the bullpen. It takes more than velocity.

 

Yes, the AAA bullpen has depth. The major league bullpen does not. That's a problem for the major league team and is one of the reasons this bullpen is not greatly improved. Yes, every player has to get their shot sometime. Hopefully if they are ready to perform well at the major league level. I don't know how many of these guys are. That's a problem for the Sox.

 

Uribe's 2006 was very similar to his 2005. I think that's the kind of hitter he is. In 2004, he variable might have used some supplements to help his power. If he improves, I think it will be minimal. Podsednik wasn't just awful last year. He is awful. He basically had one good year for Milwaukee and that wasn't too recent. His skills have diminished to the point where he is a zero-tool player. He isn't good at anything, and I don't expect him to get any better as he ages. I think Anderson will do somewhat better. The improvement could be significant, or minimal. His improvement over the course of the 2006 season didn't give me great reason for optimism. He went from awful hitting in the first half of the season to merely bad hitting in the second half. I wish I had seen some actual good hitting from him. I don't know how much of that we can expect in 2007.

 

His ERA was just like 2002, 2003 and 2004, which is basically his career average. 2005 is clearly an outlier. Now, what about his peripherals? His WHIP was back to his old (major league average form). His K/9 was actually below his career average and worse than 2002 and 2003. His K/BB was better because he gave up fewer walks. Overall, his peripherals were very similar to the rest of his career. About major league average. Average is exactly what we should expect from Jonny.

 

Luis has parts of 4 major league seasons to prove that he's a major league player. In that time, he hasn't shown much at the plate. I think he's shown that he can't hit. And it isn't like he was some great hitting prospect in the minors. In 1016 career AAA AB's, his OBP was .357 and his SLG was .479 for an OPS of .836. That's a pretty good AAA hitter. It shouldn't be surprising that a guy who is only a pretty good AAA hitter can't hit in the majors. That's pretty common. He isn't half the hitter Mackowiak is. But he's twice the fielder. So now BA has a backup who can field but can't hit. That's not a net improvement.

 

It was a good article, but I just think it needs more balance. These guys have downside as well as upside.

 

If the article was called "3 Reasons the Sox will contend and 3 reasons the Sox wont contend", then it would need more balance.

 

Its an optimistic article, something this site needs.

 

FWIW, I was pretty much playing devil's advocate. I was planning on writing 3 reasons why we won't contend next week.

 

lol

Edited December 29, 2006 by kyyle23

[SoxHawk1980]

FWIW, I was pretty much playing devil's advocate. I was planning on writing 3 reasons why we won't contend next week.

That's cool. There is a best case scenario, and a worst case scenario and a big, gray middle ground. Clearly we'll fall somewhere in the middle. I just think there are too many question marks for us to have any confidence that enough of them will turn positive for us to get to the WS. Heck, I hope we can even make it to the playoffs.

[Gregory Pratt]

The biggest improvements for us will be in Detroit and Minnesota. Detroit never impressed me and I very much doubt that they'll overachieve like this again next year. They simply can't beat the Royals nine times out of ten again next year, for one thing.

 

Minnesota? God, I love Ron Gardenhire. He scares the s*** out of me in ways that Quitter Leyland never will. But I don't believe the Twins are likely to remain as strong as last year though I believe they will be rather strong.

 

The Indians? Get a bullpen.

[Chisoxfn]

When it comes to our bullpen I think its easily to tell this years pen is more talented than last years. However, we have to aslo remember that in 05, the beginning portion of the 06 bullpen (for the most part) was downright amazing (Politte & Cotts specifically).

 

Whether that talent pans out, who knows. MacDougall has had an injury riddled past, but no one can doubt he's a dominant reliever when healthy (and boy did he ever show that with the Sox last season) while Thornton made great strides last year but now has to put up back to back quality seasons (I think he will). Jenks is very good when healthy and could very well be on par to have a better season (if he remains healthy).

 

Than we have Aardsma (great stuff and looked good with the Cubs last year, but very unproven), Sisco (great stuff but was god awful last year with the Royals), Massett (rocketship of an arm, but again, has yet to show he can do it at the major league level.

 

Right now I consider our bullpen a talented question-mark. I expect a couple of our guys to pan out, but one or two may not. The good thing is that if these guys pan out our pen will be intact for a number of years on the cheap.

 

I am also glad that are three key guys (Jenks, Mac, & Thornton) have put up good to great numbers at the major league level (all I am really concerned about with them is that they stay healthy).

[Heads22]

I'm confident six of these guys will work out...

 

[Felix]

I'm glad to see the front page back in action. The amount of hard work you guys put into it shows

Edited December 29, 2006 by Felix

[Heads22]

God that picture I put up is perfect for the new year.

[Balta1701]

The Indians? Get a bullpen.

It's not going to be the best in baseball, but with their offense it doesn't need to be the best, it just needs to be better than the disaster of last season, and they've done that. Keith Foulke, Roberto Hernandez, Joe Borowski, Aaron Fultz have all been added to that pen. It's not going to be like Minnesota's bullpen last year, where it h its the 7th inning and the game is over, but it should be good enough to keep them from losing every game that goes to the bullpen. Which, with the lineup Cleveland is sporting, might just be good enough.

[Vance Law]

Just my humble opinions.

 

So what you're saying is, it's a good thing that every single other team in baseball has a lot of those same problems and likely a lot more.

[VAfan]

I think the article is mostly wishful thinking.

 

Bullpen: yes, it should be better than last year, but best in the AL?? Hardly. The Angels pen is clearly deeper and more experienced, and I would bet the Tigers pen will be better than ours. Who's to say Jenks ERA won't worsen, rather than improve? Has anyone been tracking his eating habits? I love Big Bobby for the way he helped us to a World Series, but the guy is not a picture of stability. MacDougal has also been plagued by arm troubles recently, so you have to cross your fingers he stays healthy. I like Thornton. But Aardsma and everyone else mentioned is an unproven commodity. Strong arms don't always mean good bullpen pitchers.

 

More consistent hitting? Really? Why? We still don't have anyone on the bench who can hit a lefty pitcher. Given the splits last season, that leaves us with three players who can hit if the other team uses a lefty starter or reliever -- Dye, Konerko, and Crede. Everyone else flat out sucked against lefties either all season or for very long stretches. Sure, BA should be better, but that's not saying much b/c he was SO terrible last year. Same for Uribe. Same for Pods. We're just trotting out the same guys HOPING they'll be better. And we actually got rid of our 5th best hitter -- yes, Ross Gload, Mr. .320. Check out his RC27 number if you don't believe me. It was better than Crede's.

 

Better starting pitching? I would agree only b/c it can't be worse. Except then you have the question of health. We lost Contreras at a couple of points last year. What if someone else went down?? We have NO DEPTH of ML-ready starters. All the guys we added are a year or two away. Plus, there was a comment about Vazquez "having a better second half." WHAT??? The guy didn't win a single game after we played the Yankees in August, which happened to be the ONLY game all year Ozzie yanked him after 5 innings (even though JV consistently lost leads in the 6th inning game after game after game). We traded our best gamer -- Freddie Garcia -- the guy who beat Detroit 4 times last year, for prospects.

 

 

So, I don't see any certainty that we can win more than 90 games in 2007.

 

 

Plus, the writer says nothing about Cleveland. Cleveland is the biggest underachieving team in baseball, and has been the last two years. If they simply match their pythagorean projections they could jump to the head of the AL Central.

 

We may contend in 07, but we could also finish 4th.

[SoxHawk1980]

So what you're saying is, it's a good thing that every single other team in baseball has a lot of those same problems and likely a lot more.

Yes, every team has question marks. The Sox have more in 2007 than they did in 2006. They also have less overall major league talent than they had in 2006. We were a third place team last year. I don't think we can simply rely on the other teams in our division and the rest of the AL getting worse. I think we needed to get better as well. We didn't. Not for 2007.

 

Plus, the writer says nothing about Cleveland. Cleveland is the biggest underachieving team in baseball, and has been the last two years. If they simply match their pythagorean projections they could jump to the head of the AL Central.

Great point. Cleveland is a very good young team that very clearly underachieved last year. People talk about Minnesota and Detroit (hopefully) both regressing but ignore Cleveland. Typically when these discussions are had on this board, Cleveland is dismissed with a brief "their bullpen sucks." Well, their bullpen is at least somewhat improved and their rotation and offense makes them possibly our key competition in 2007. We need to improve over 2006 to win the division. The Twins, Tigers and Indians won't all just hand it to us.

[The Ginger Kid]

And the predictions for Sox futility have begun:

 

From yahoo sports...

 

AL Central

 

The Chicago White Sox didn't fix much for today. In fact, their winter step might have been backward. But, there was a refreshing touch of sanity in general manager Kenny Williams' maneuvering, as he stockpiled a half-dozen young arms and laid them at the feet of pitching coach Don Cooper. That doesn't entirely explain the Brandon McCarthy trade, other than for volume, which appears to be the plan. They could still use a center fielder.

 

That leaves the division to the Detroit Tigers, who this September will hold off the Minnesota Twins. Their pitching remains mostly young and strong and Gary Sheffield should significantly upgrade their lineup. Dave Dombrowski was smart enough not to take their World Series wash-out personally, leaving well enough alone.

 

The Twins are about where we left them, which is short Francisco Liriano (Tommy John surgery) and Brad Radke (retirement) and being horrified by the Zito contract, considering what it might someday mean to Johan Santana. Their season will be determined by Boof Bonser, Matt Garza and Scott Baker.

 

Despite appearances – and last season's standings – that imply otherwise, the Cleveland Indians are closer to the division leaders than they are to the Kansas City Royals. David Dellucci and Josh Barfield were good acquisitions in left and at second base. Something had to be done about the bullpen, and we're not sure Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez and Aaron Fultz went a long way toward that.

 

Our feeling about the Royals is that we believe in Dayton Moore. Just not this year.

 

Link

[Jordan4life_2007]

I like being the "underdog" again. Seems like we always fall on our faces when we're predicted to dominate.

[RME JICO]

1. A Vastly Improved Bullpen - I completely agree. Having a whole year of MacDougal with Thornton and Jenks makes the back end of the bullpen very solid. Aardsma had a great finish to 2006 (Sep06-16IP, 1.65 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 21/9 K/BB), and the rest of the bunch should be better than the clown car carousel in 2006.

 

2. Second Tier Hitter Production - There is no way Uribe, Anderson, and Pods will be as bad as they were collectively in 2006. If they are, they won't be playing very much.

 

3. Starters Return to Form - This is definitely a hopeful statement. It does make sense that most of them will rebound, but it is still a big if. I would say the biggest improvement will come from Buehrle because he has the most to lose from another sub-standard season.

 

Also, you forgot to mention how bad Iguchi was against LHP, even though he is a RH. You have to think that he will improve in this area in 2007.

 

I would say the bench with the addition of Hall will be the second biggest factor behind the bullpen in 2007. Cintron, Mack, Ozuna, and Hall could probably start on some other teams. They will also get a lot of playing time which should give the starters some extra energy late in the season.

 

For the rest of the Division, the Tigers will regress somewhat (1 or 2 games), the Twins will regress the most, probably 4-5 games, Cleveland will be improved (5-6 games), and the Royals will probably improve a game or two because it is hard to get much worse. The AL Central will again be the most competitive Division in baseball, and in 2007 there will probably be 4 teams alive for the playoffs in September.

Edited December 30, 2006 by RME JICO

[greg775]

It does suck the games when the foes trot out lefty starters and it nullifies

Thomes's greatness.

We do need to do better versus lefties.

Can we is the question?

Pods can't hit a lefty and neither can Jimmy T.

Nor can AJ.

[Balta1701]

Pods can't hit a lefty and neither can Jimmy T.

Nor can AJ.

This year, AJ's inability against lefties is much less important.

 

And, interestingly enough, in 2005, Podsednik was actually quite a bit better against lefties than against righties (Albiet in fewer at bats). .330 vs. .280 lefties and righties. He was pretty much all around bad in 04, and in 03 it was sort of reversed, .270 against lefties and .330 against righties (not totally awful against lefties like last year).

 

I think the message with Podsednik is if he's bad, he's particularly bad against lefties, but if he's doing well, then it's hard to predict exactly who he's going to hit.

[LosMediasBlancas]

define 'contend'

[The Ginger Kid]

I really look for Lee, Westbrook and Sabathia to have big seasons and with that potent lineup, look out. Yes, the bullpen is a weakness but certainly better than '06.

 

Twins could go either way; if Garza and Baker tank and the piranhas turn to guppies, then they're battling KC for fourth place. But I don't see it.

 

Detroit's going to be fun to watch, especially once Shef starts b****ing about DH'ing too much and how it effects his hitting. The new version of Guitar Hero just came out but it's still going to be hard to beat them if they have a lead going into the seventh. Can Jones really be their closer another season?

 

Sox have to figure out why they slump in the second half and then stop doing it. Three years straight they've tanked in the 2nd half.