Sox site article - overview of Winter League performance

[NorthSideSox72]

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...sp&c_id=cws

 

Thought people might want to see this. Gives little snippets on various players.

 

What do we know about Victor Mercedes? Listed as a shortstop, played for W-S last year. According to the article, went 7 of 14 in winter league play. 2006 with W-S, put up .273/10/52 in a full season, plus 20 SB, and 34 2B. A year previous in 2005, jumped around through rookie and low A ball. He is 27, so he's not young - but his numbers look impressive.

 

If he plays any sort of decent defense at SS, with that sort of offensive stat line, I wonder if he might be an in-house SS option in a year or two.

[danman31]

Mercedes is a non prospect. Nanita and Oneli Perez both had good showings in their leagues, that's good news. Both had solid (or better for Perez) years last year and will push the 08 roster with duplicate campaigns in 07.

[NorthSideSox72]

Mercedes is a non prospect. Nanita and Oneli Perez both had good showings in their leagues, that's good news. Both had solid (or better for Perez) years last year and will push the 08 roster with duplicate campaigns in 07.

Why is Mercedes a "non-prospect"? Seems as if a guy can play shortstop, put up decent offensive numbers with a little power at High A, has some speed and played well over the winter... should be worth looking at. Do you have any particular reason why he is a non-prospect?

[Heads22]

The fact that he's never been above AA in 6 seasons.

[NorthSideSox72]

The fact that he's never been above AA in 6 seasons.

Hmmmm...

 

I wish there was a way to check out the scouting reports on some of these folks. Just to see what the people who are coaching and watching them are thinking.

 

By the way, I could only see 2 seasons of data on MILB.com. Where do you look up prior seasons for folks in the minors?

[Heads22]

thebaseballcube.com

 

Stats on just about anybody. Has college stats on many as well.

[NorthSideSox72]

thebaseballcube.com

 

Stats on just about anybody. Has college stats on many as well.

Thanks, I appreciate that.

 

Two interesting things, now that I see his background. First, he was a 2B until 2006, when we moved him to SS. Second, looks like he actually pitched in a couple games in 2005 as well.

 

I also just saw that he had 38 errors in 137 games in his first year at SS. Not great.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Age should be the second thing you look at after performance (sometimes it's the first thing)

 

27 year olds in A-ball aren't prospects.

 

As a general rule, I like to use the guide of 1 year per level with

 

A- -- 20

A+ -- 21

AA -- 22

AAA -- 23

 

A player performing well at each level at that age would be on every teams top 10 list, and make most top 100 lists. They're the type of player that could be considered a top prospect. One that would likely be an average major league regular.

 

A player performing well while younger than those ages at each stop is definitely a top prospect, one who should contribute right away and has the possibilty of All-star seasons in his future.

 

players a year or so older than that at each level are more than likely destined to be role players.

 

Players 2 or more years older than that at each level are reaching non-prospect status. It's a longshot that they'll ever sniff a 40-man roster.

 

These aren't hard and fast rules, but they're good guides to keep in mind when looking at minor leaguers. Old=bad. young vs. league = good.

[RockRaines]

Great info there Gene, for people who dont follow minor league baseball as much as some.

[danman31]

Yeah, that's good and accurate stuff. Gives some credence to my Lopez argument in the sleeper prospect thread.

[NorthSideSox72]

Thanks for the info Gene, I appreciate that.

 

I guess I am sometimes a contrarian on these things. The parallel to the business world is interesting - when looking for those folks that would eventually be senior executives, you look for someone who makes their way up the line quickly at a young age, and who has the right pedigree (degree/school, measured success, etc.). BUT, sometimes, there are outliers. People who bloom late, or who took a different path, etc. Those people also sometimes, if they have the right skills, can get to the highest levels much later in their careers. The main reason why is this factor: success itself is a skill. People who show they are unusually effective at kicking butt at increasing levels of responsibility have a valuable skill, regardless of their age or what school they went to.

 

Looking at sports, I think its a similar deal. Now, this Mercedes kid is probably not that guy, as his numbers are nothing spectacular. But someone like a Heath Phillips might be. If you can find a way to win, that is key, and it can sometimes overcome a late start or lesser peripheral skills. My favorite example of this in the sports world is Steve Largent, who despite being a late round garbage pick out of Tulsa with little speed or size, became one of the great WR's in NFL history.

 

And I think that the people running these minor league teams agree with me. Why? Because if they didn't, then guys like Mercedes wouldn't have jobs. They'd be released, in favor of a 22-year old with more raw talent.

 

I'm not saying you guys are wrong - I think you are right for 95% of the players out there. I just think its interesting to find people who are those "sleepers" or late bloomers who manage to win at multiple levels, because other folks may dismiss them, allowing a coach/scout with a good eye to get them cheap.

[danman31]

Players like Mercedes have jobs because affiliates still need to win games to sell tickets. That's why he would play over a 22 year-old with raw abilities. Of course if it's an actual prospect as opposed to a run of the mill younger guy Mercedes would find another organization.

[witesoxfan]

Another area of consideration along the lines of age is experience. That was why Jerry Owens was still considered a prospect by some even though he was 24 (23 and 363 days if you're keeping score at home)upon being acquired . He'd played 1 year professionally.

 

That prospect status evaporated pretty quickly with his .260/.330/.346 line in the hitter's paradise that is Charlotte, but the point stands true. He's still looking at being a 4th OFer in all likelyhood.

[Heads22]

And to that end, prospects need guys to learn from. If a Tom Collaro could pick up something from a Mark Quinn in BHam last year and start to turn things around, it really does help.