Sox like Dye, but at what cost?..... Goodbye Buerhle ?

[DBAHO]

If Dye would accept 40M for 3 years, I think we've got to make that signing right now.

 

Yes it's a risk, but in this current market, you're signing Jermaine Dye at a discounted rate. And we need his bat in the middle of that lineup.

 

Hopefully something can get done here.

[nitetrain8601]

Jermaine Dye is not worth that much money if the White Sox are spending $60 million a year on their starting 5 pitchers and have a $100 million salary.

 

Jermaine Dye may very well be worth that much if the White Sox are spending $25-30 million a year on their starting pitching and would without Dye have a $85 million salary if they resign Crede.

 

It's a matter of filling holes. If you have a big hole that an expensive player could fill, and you have salary freed up somewhere else, then that expensive player becomes more affordable. The White Sox could not afford dye in 08 with a Garcia, Buehrle, Contereas, Garland, Vazquez rotation. The White Sox may very well be able to afford Dye in 08 with a Danks, Contreras, Garland, Vazquez, Floyd/Haeger/Broadway rotation (especially if one of Garland and Vazquez is moved to clear more rookie room before they hit FA).

 

If some of guys like Danks, Gio, Broadway, Haeger, Floyd, Phillips, and McCullough start to pan out, along with the ungodly cheap bullpen, the White Sox will be able to afford to spend money on 30-35 home run bats if they so choose.

 

I think the White Sox believe they can keep 2 out of the 3 that is Crede, Buehrle, and Dye. Dye will be the most affordable of the three without a doubt. They have seen what type of money pitching has demanded the past couple of years and they see Buehrle is more than likely not going to be affordable. The way they probably see it is, 15 mil a year at least for Buehrle or Crede, which would you rather have? An everyday position player than fields his position more than adequately, or a good pitcher who pitches every 5 days? I'll go with the position player unless the pitcher was named Johan Santana.

 

They might not resign Crede, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet that at least one of those three will be reupped, with great potential for two of them to be resigned. If nothing else, the White Sox are setting themselves up for a great run at future FA pitcher, Johan Santana if they wanted to go after him.

Edited January 13, 2007 by nitetrain8601

[beck72]

I think it's pretty clear both will be gone and the sox will load up on draft picks as they offer both arbitration. Those four picks will help the sox be good for the long run though. Yet I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox paid Mark his money--which would pave the way for Crede to leave town though.

 

As far as those who say the sox need to spend money on some veteran players--of course they do. But those guys need to be young and/ or irreplaceable. Dye's bat [esp. if he repeats his 2006 numbers] will be hard to replace. But not his d. Esp. as he should get a 4 yr deal and won't be near the player he was in 2006 in 2010 and 2012. I liken Dye to the Magglio situation. Sure you'd like him back. But not at a huge price. Someone you give a long term deal to should be near the same player they are in the last yr of the contract that they were when you first signed them. And they should be able to give a team something no one else can.

 

It probably comes down to who the sox would rather sign to a long term deal---Dye, Mark or Crede. But teams built around their pitching can really only afford to have a few max contract position players. This is what Scheurholtz [sp?] has done in ATL and who KW really respects.

Edited January 13, 2007 by beck72

[gosox41]

Who is more valuable...A Rightfielder who plays everyday or a Starting Pitcher who plays once every 5 days...Seems like a no-brainer to me.

 

 

This mentality is what caused the Sox to be disappointments in 2000-2005. For example, for getting about contracts and years before FA, I would rather have Johan Santana then JD. If Minnesota offered you that trade would you take it or reject?

 

Now back to reality and the Buehrle and Dye scenario. I would rather keep Dye over Buehrle, buit not because Dye plays every day. I'd do it because Buehrle is not a dominant pitcher and Dye is an MVP caliber player.

 

Not to be too nit picky on this whole topic of paying a guy who plays everyday or paying for a guy who's out there every 5th day. But last weeks Trib had some idiot Cub fan use the same logic to justify paying Soriano and not using it to pay for a pitcher.

 

 

Bob

[spiderman]

I do worry some about the payroll - not necessarily this season, but next season, when Buerhle appears gone, Dye's questionable to return, and the White Sox don't seem inclined to go after upper tier free agents because of the big money contracts.

 

I know I'm going to hear that the payroll is $100 million this season, but I can't help but wonder, with the attendence close to 3 million, the WS victory still recent, and new revenue coming from the CBA, yet we continue to hear that we can't keep our premier players or bid for others in free agency.

 

This is not meant as a bash to Kenny Williams- I trust his judgment, and I agree with his hands-off approach to free agency this off-season, I just have some questions about the FUTURE payroll of this team.

 

Am I offbase in my concern ? Why or why not ?

to sign no more than a 4 year deal. If that's the case, I think Dye will be in the $15 million a year range.

Edited January 13, 2007 by spiderman

[nitetrain8601]

This mentality is what caused the Sox to be disappointments in 2000-2005. For example, for getting about contracts and years before FA, I would rather have Johan Santana then JD. If Minnesota offered you that trade would you take it or reject?

 

Now back to reality and the Buehrle and Dye scenario. I would rather keep Dye over Buehrle, buit not because Dye plays every day. I'd do it because Buehrle is not a dominant pitcher and Dye is an MVP caliber player.

 

Not to be too nit picky on this whole topic of paying a guy who plays everyday or paying for a guy who's out there every 5th day. But last weeks Trib had some idiot Cub fan use the same logic to justify paying Soriano and not using it to pay for a pitcher.

Bob

 

Johan is more of an exception rather than the rule. The guy might be the greatest pitcher ever before it's all said and done.

[CanOfCorn]

The way I have taken things, I don't think the Sox are that blown away by the $$$ that is being given out this off-season. It's the years. I don't think the Sox have any problem giving out a big money deal, but they don't want it over 5 or 6 years, and I don't blame them. Dave Roberts is 34, and coming off his best season. Did you really want him for 3 more years? I don't blame the Sox for not wanting Roberts when he is 37. I alsp don't really want to be paying 8.5 million in 2011 to Juan Pierre, do you? The Sox are trying to be as financially responsible as possible, and sometimes that can look bad.

 

I think you are absolutely right...it's the years. Great post.

 

On a different note, I wonder if these skyrocketing prices are going to force the Commissioner's office and MLBPA to really discuss a salary cap. do we really think that KC or Pitt or Tampa Bay are going to be able to keep up? Maybe they can do something like the NBA with the Bird Exception. I don't know, but this is getting absolutely ridiculous...and I'm not a big fan of any salary caps.

[klaus kinski]

I think a cap in baseball would suck. Now it's very easy to say that as a fan of a team with a top 10 payroll, but thats how I feel. There is no other off-season that is as fun as baseball, and the only sport that has an exciting trade deadline.

 

Oh, and the Royals didn't seem to have much of a problem giving 55 million to Meche

 

No recent team has gone under or filed bankruptcy. Until one does and players start missing paychecks, the MLBPA will NEVER agree to a cap

[spiderman]

The way I have taken things, I don't think the Sox are that blown away by the $$$ that is being given out this off-season. It's the years. I don't think the Sox have any problem giving out a big money deal, but they don't want it over 5 or 6 years, and I don't blame them. Dave Roberts is 34, and coming off his best season. Did you really want him for 3 more years? I don't blame the Sox for not wanting Roberts when he is 37. I alsp don't really want to be paying 8.5 million in 2011 to Juan Pierre, do you? The Sox are trying to be as financially responsible as possible, and sometimes that can look bad.

 

Your post was why I was fine with Williams bringing back Podsednik - in my mind, there wasn't any much differnce between some of these players and Podsednik, and it's a lot less $$$$, so, I'm not upset at all that the White Sox didn't go on the market and get involved with some of these deals.

 

I do think, based on several of Williams' comments that the White Sox were surprised by the money being thrown around - he decided to reload his pitching stafff for that very reason. I agree the years definitely come in on this, but we're also not going to afford 3 or 4 starting pitchers at huge money.

 

I guess I'm a little frustrated that we haven't increased our payroll this season, and I'm even more concerned about the future budgets.

 

I think Williams is doing a good job of getting as many top prospects together, and hopefully 2 or 3 of them will pan out.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I guess I'm too old fashioned. I long for the days that being a baseball fan meant you discussed baseball and not contracts. Why is it always the White Sox , no matter who the owner, who become the gods of fiscal responsibility ? If ever there was a time for the White Sox to NOT bring up the inflated market its now. If we can't splurge a little after having won a world series , with attendance and merchandising being at all time highs, will we be ever be able to consistently play with the big boys ? If Sox history has taught us anything its that you don't win with cheap owners. 2007 might be the last year the Sox will be in contention for a while so enjoy it while you can.

[CanOfCorn]

I guess I'm too old fashioned. I long for the days that being a baseball fan meant you discussed baseball and not contracts. Why is it always the White Sox , no matter who the owner, who become the gods of fiscal responsibility ? If ever there was a time for the White Sox to NOT bring up the inflated market its now. If we can't splurge a little after having won a world series , with attendance and merchandising being at all time highs, will we be ever be able to consistently play with the big boys ? If Sox history has taught us anything its that you don't win with cheap owners. 2007 might be the last year the Sox will be in contention for a while so enjoy it while you can.

 

 

White Sox aren't cheap...they are being fiscally responsible. That's a HUGE difference. Cheap would be going out and getting scrap heap players who just want to play. Fiscally responsible means realizing it's not worth hamstringing your team for years for one player.

 

Or, buying the Ozzie package instad of the full season package. You still get to see games, and this way you still can afford groceries.

[YASNY]

White Sox aren't cheap...they are being fiscally responsible. That's a HUGE difference. Cheap would be going out and getting scrap heap players who just want to play. Fiscally responsible means realizing it's not worth hamstringing your team for years for one player.

 

Or, buying the Ozzie package instad of the full season package. You still get to see games, and this way you still can afford groceries.

 

Fiscal responsibility led to the 2005 championship.

[greg775]

I have one question. Why can't Chicago, one of the biggest and best cities

in the world with a recent world championship be able to afford players like

Dye and Buehrle. It really is sad that Chicago has to try to win titles the cheap

ass way.

Very sad.

Mark B and Dye should remain White Sox.

You seen the figures on what the White Sox franchise is worth??

Sell the team Jerry if you can't pay the freight.

[103 mph screwball]

Just a reminder, the Sox had a top 5 payroll last year and will have a payroll >100 million. This is not the 58 million 2003 Sox. ONLY the Yankees can pay whatever for whoever and even they see the wisdom in what KW is doing. Besides, I'd be willing to bet that a fan favorite will be signed long term just before Soxfest this year.

[Vance Law]

I have one question. Why can't Chicago, one of the biggest and best cities

in the world with a recent world championship be able to afford players like

Dye and Buehrle. It really is sad that Chicago has to try to win titles the cheap

ass way.

Very sad.

Mark B and Dye should remain White Sox.

You seen the figures on what the White Sox franchise is worth??

Sell the team Jerry if you can't pay the freight.

 

 

What does "be able to afford" mean?

 

In the case of Buehrle, there is no chance in the world the he will be worth the money he will command next year. It will likely be in the range of the Zito contract (depending on whether or not he's as awful in '07 as he was in '06). He will be offered 6 or 7 years and a ton of money. Does anyone think Buehrle will be better than league average in total over the next 7 years? The Sox did spend $$$ and years on Konerko, one of the top mashing first basemen in the league, something that you can count on from year to year with a much higher degree of certainty than a pitcher. Buehrle's year last year would be like Konerko hitting 13 homers and driving in 60 runs.

 

There is a better chance of signing Dye. The years will be the issue. I doubt the Sox want to go more than 3 years, almost certain they wouldn't go more than 4. Some maniac GM, though, will likely offer something rediculous though- a price he' simply not worth.

[sircaffey]

I really want to rip this post apart, but I have gone back and forth with you so many times, and you still don't seem to get it, so I'll just leave it alone.

 

No kidding. Absolutely clueless post.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Fiscal responsibility led to the 2005 championship.

 

Explain it to me a little more clearly. Are you referring to letting Magglio go? If so Magglio was injured . It wasn't as much fiscal responsibilty as it was common sense. We signed Dye , AJ, Tadahito, and EL Duque all veterans who'd proven they were good players but had recent question marks. Dye had injuries , AJ was a troublemaker , El Duque was aging and injured and Gooch never played a day of major league baseball. I'm probably not remembering off the top of my head the other signings of other key players that led to the Championship.

 

Right now its the exact opposite. We are not signing the players who brought us the ring. Buerhle and Crede look like goners for sure . I'm holding out some hope that the Sox can sign JD. Kenny knows this fiscal responsiblity plan is all contingent on the development and a fairly quick development of these young pitchers.

 

Also someone explain to me how a guy who built a World Champ trading away our future because after all prospects are just prospects and look damn smart doing it ,can now put all his faith in a boatload of prospects.

 

I am not advocating signing mediocrity for rich long term contracts but if the market has changed and 9 out of 10 GMs give pitchers more then 3 year contracts how can we compete if we don't give out contracts commensurate with the rest of baseball. Who will want to sign with us ? I am forever grateful for the World Championship but that doesnt mean that Kenny will work that magic again. When you fail to pull the rabbit out of the hat the rabbit ends up in the cellar. I hope Kenny can still work his mojo when he's completely changed his M.O.

[NorthSideSox72]

I have one question. Why can't Chicago, one of the biggest and best cities

in the world with a recent world championship be able to afford players like

Dye and Buehrle. It really is sad that Chicago has to try to win titles the cheap

ass way.

Very sad.

Mark B and Dye should remain White Sox.

You seen the figures on what the White Sox franchise is worth??

Sell the team Jerry if you can't pay the freight.

Since others have pointed out some the obvious flaws in your statement, let me add a little Business 101...

 

The value (or worth) of a business does NOT equal its ability to generate and/or spend money. They are seperate and often only marginally related concepts. Ford Motor Company, for example, is worth 10s of billions of dollars. But, they are hemorraging cash, so they are having to lay off people, etc.

 

So as with the Sox, like most baseball teams, they are only marginally profitable (many teams actually lose money). So they can't just go out and spend money like there is no tomorrow. Further, the value of the team if sold also reflects periodic built-in revenue streams, that are not realized up front, but instead are material in future years.

 

We've seen this team-worth argument over and over again, and it is just immaterial to the discussion.

[Rowand44]

Explain it to me a little more clearly. Are you referring to letting Magglio go? If so Magglio was injured . It wasn't as much fiscal responsibilty as it was common sense. We signed Dye , AJ, Tadahito, and EL Duque all veterans who'd proven they were good players but had recent question marks. Dye had injuries , AJ was a troublemaker , El Duque was aging and injured and Gooch never played a day of major league baseball. I'm probably not remembering off the top of my head the other signings of other key players that led to the Championship.

 

Right now its the exact opposite. We are not signing the players who brought us the ring. Buerhle and Crede look like goners for sure . I'm holding out some hope that the Sox can sign JD. Kenny knows this fiscal responsiblity plan is all contingent on the development and a fairly quick development of these young pitchers.

 

Also someone explain to me how a guy who built a World Champ trading away our future because after all prospects are just prospects and look damn smart doing it ,can now put all his faith in a boatload of prospects.

 

I am not advocating signing mediocrity for rich long term contracts but if the market has changed and 9 out of 10 GMs give pitchers more then 3 year contracts how can we compete if we don't give out contracts commensurate with the rest of baseball. Who will want to sign with us ? I am forever grateful for the World Championship but that doesnt mean that Kenny will work that magic again. When you fail to pull the rabbit out of the hat the rabbit ends up in the cellar. I hope Kenny can still work his mojo when he's completely changed his M.O.

 

Trading Carlos Lee allowed us to sign most of those guys as we dumped a lot of salary with that trade.

[Kalapse]

Trading Carlos Lee allowed us to sign most of those guys as we dumped a lot of salary with that trade.

Lee = $8M

 

Iguchi = $2.3M

Pierzynski = $2.5M

Hernandez = $3.5M

-------

Total = $8.3M

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Trading Carlos Lee allowed us to sign most of those guys as we dumped a lot of salary with that trade.

 

True but again we signed good players who for one reason or another weren't worth as much as they could have been. So along with the signings of JD, AJ, Tadahito and El Duque we got Pods and Vizcaino in the trade, all major league talents furthure proving my point of Kenny's dislike for prospects. So all of a sudden putting so much stock in prospects is an about face in philosophy that has shocked and dismayed many fans.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It's all about cycles. The only way you can keep trading prospects and making splashes in the FA market is to have an enormous payroll. If you can't do that, then you can't keep using the same formula. Doing that will only work for so long.

 

Kenny built the team for a 2004-2007 run. That was/is the window. Every team has a window. If you don't prepare for the future, it will close very quickly. For me, the goal of Williams off-season has been to keep the 2007 club competitive, but also try his best to secure the future success of the Sox. It's a very tricky thing to do, and I think he has done a pretty good job. I'm still not that happy with the return from Philly, but I trust the Sox judgment.

And If Kenny kept all the big names to keep the fans happy, we would either have a 200 million dollar payroll by keeping Garcia-Buehrle-Dye, or they would all leave together, and because we didn't make trades to acquire players to fill their holes, we are looking at a 60-70 win season in 2008 and beyond.

 

A very tricky thing indeed ! We've still got a lot of talent but you admitted you didnt like the return in the Garcia trade, so lets say our return on Crede ,Buerhle and Dye or whoever else is traded or becomes a free agent is just as negligible and the pitchers don't develope like we all hope they do. Then we're still looking at your 60-70 win season in 2008 and beyond.

[Vance Law]

True but again we signed good players who for one reason or another weren't worth as much as they could have been.

A market inefficiency. Quality to all-star major leaguers who could be had at a very good price. The free agent market was way undervaluing these players. This is not the case right now. A career .300 hitting lefty catcher for $2.5 million. Maybe you could get him for 3 times that right now. More the type of prices we got JD, AJ, Gooch, etc, now you could not get players far inferior to them for anywhere near those prices.

 

So along with the signings of JD, AJ, Tadahito and El Duque we got Pods and Vizcaino in the trade, all major league talents furthure proving my point of Kenny's dislike for prospects. So all of a sudden putting so much stock in prospects is an about face in philosophy that has shocked and dismayed many fans.

 

No. It's the opposite of that. It's a regular face in philosophy. Exploiting market inefficiencies. The market is rediculously overpaying for free agents in general and pitching in particular.

[Balta1701]

Just for fun, I spent a moment making a few educated guesses about the money it would take to keep together out entire starting lineup from 06, including the starting rotaiton, as it stands now. You can quibble with my numbers if you want, I'm sure that in the end they'll be off by a couple million, but just for a rough guess of how much it would cost around 08-09 to keep all these guys from hitting FA, here's what I think:

 

(numbers in millions of dollars)

Mark Buehrle 17

Jon Garland 14

Jose Contreras 10

Freddy Garcia 13

Javier Vazquez 12

Joe Crede 12

Paul Konerko 12

Jim Thome 7

Tadahito Iguchi 4

Juan Uribe 5

AJ Pierzynski 5.5

Jermaine Dye 15

Brian Anderson 0.4

Scott Podsednik 3

 

Just with our starting lineup, that comes to about $130 million. Now think about the fact that I probably underestimated a few of the numbers those pitchers will get, that prices will probably inflate more before then, that Thome's option in 09 is $14 million and the Phillies wouldn't be paying for that part, and that mentions nothing about the bench or bullpen, which together should add up to another $10 million or so, and just for holding together the same roster as last year with 0 upgrades, within a year or two the White Sox would have to push the salary to the $140-$150 million range.

 

Was last year's team worth $150 million to anyone's eyes here? A 3rd place finish in the division (even though they won 90)? And then imagine that with everyone 2-3 years older?

 

Like it or not, that's the reality KW was faced with. He had to get younger wherever he could, and that $60-$70 million starting rotation is the obvious place.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Trading away devolved Major League talent for high potential minor leaguers is always going to be a risk. There is no way around that. However your point doesn't really make too much sense. What are you implying? That since we don't know for sure what the return of Crede or Mark would be, we shouldn't trade them, and re-sign them for whatever it costs? What are you suggesting?

 

I'm suggesting a balance. Everything Kenny is quoted as saying in regards to signing Buerhle , Crede and Dye is negative. If the market has changed that much how do ever manage to keep anyone once they become players who are worth big money. How do you attract big names to Chicago ? Go read the "how I became a Sox fan" thread and see how many people , in the limited number of responses said they are Sox fans because of Frank Thomas. Big time players attract fans. Do not go telling me my response doesn't make sense . That is personal . I can argue my point as can you without implying my train of thought is convoluted.

 

I realize the course the Sox are taking and can argue pro or con on the point. I know its not the GM's job to make the fans happy per se but that certainly is a consideration. The happier the fans are the more they come to games. The more they come to games the more money they can put into the team. But oh no now the market has changed and attendance means nothing. If I wanted to track down quotes by Williams and Reinsdorf I'm sure I could about once the fans get their butts in the seats we can spend more money.

 

I am truly amazed winning a world series once in 88 years and everyone forgets decades of White Sox incompetence. If baseball historians had to pick one team and call it the laughingstock of baseball it would be the Sox. I can see both sides of the argument very clearly and can understand givng Kenny the benefit of the doubt because of market conditions. However baseball and White Sox history tells me that our window of opportunity is officially closed and the rebuilding has begun. We are now the Florida Marlins after their 1st world series victory. Lets just hope the course of action pays dividends as soon as theirs did and doesnt take another 88 years.