Are we really out of contention this coming season?

[Vance Law]

Going out on a limb here: The White Sox, Tigers, Twins and Indians will all contend in 2007. And Travis Hafner will hit about 12 homers off our pitchers. Thats it from me in the prediction department.

 

To be completely honest, the thing I'm most concerned about going into the season is our 1 through 4 starters getting their s*** together. Much more so than our 5th starter. Some people make it sound like we solved our 5th starter problem in 2005. While it was better than the committee of garbage we were throwing out there in the years prior, it certainly wasn't anything beyond mediocre. I know I sure didn't feel very comfortable watching El Duque being thrown out there for 22 starts. Point is, we got to the post season because our 1-4 starters were outstanding for almost the entire season.

 

I can't say I have any idea that Buehrle, Garland, Count and Vazquez will pitch up to, or above, their expectations. But the entire season, IMO, is depending on it. As an optimist, I think they can...but who the hell really knows.

 

Bravo. Well said. I couldn't agree more. We won in '05 because 1-4 were basically dominant. 5 was subpar. Our offense was subpar. Now we have even more leeway with the offense as good as it is. If 1-4 can be at least somewhere halfway between '05 and '06 (an ERA around 4.00) we have a very good shot at the division.

Edited January 18, 2007 by Vance Law

[Vance Law]

LOL at Thome having a "career year." Even the "age and experience" doesn't cover up this load of bull.

 

Look at Thome's career stats. 2005 is the abnormal year, not 2006. Dye may not reproduce last year's numbers, but that certainly doesn't mean he won't be productive or a great hitter.

 

Agreed. 2006 was pretty typical for Thome. Look at the year before his injury. Then also look at basically every other year he's played. But he might get injured! Well he was hurt in the second half. Missed some time and played through pain and only hit like 12 homers after the allstar break. And he still hit 42 homers. Plus they've said they plan to rest him more regularly so he won't wear down. And if they don't, and he does wear down in the second half, I expect.....about 42 Thomers from him and an OPS above 1.000.

 

And since Dye cannot and will not have a season like last year, I expect something between '05 and '06- .295 batting average and about 37 homers.

 

Guesstimate: Dye + Anderson in '06 will equal Dye + Anderson in '07. I give Anderson a Rowand-like 13 homers this year.

[RockRaines]

Actually I based it on my noticing the pitching was faltering during spring training.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...t&p=1068724

pwned.

[Hawkfan]

Longer explanation is that we still have a great offense, the best in the division. We have a very good starting 4, plus about half a dozen guys potentially capable of putting up adequate numbers as a 5th starter. The bullpen is filled with flameflowers, and 3 guys who could be closers (or have been) on lots of teams. The defense is still very good, except for LF, and the guys really seem to like playing for Ozzie.

 

 

whats a flameflower? and do we want them on the sox?

[Controlled Chaos]

whats a flameflower? and do we want them on the sox?

 

flame flower - plant with fleshy roots and erect stems with narrow succulent leaves and one reddish-orange flower in each upper leaf axil

 

 

The Sodfather would freak if that started poppin up in the bullpen.

[dwalteroo]

I agree that pitching is #1 for 2007. We absolutely need our 1-4 guys to step up and dominate, especially now that our #5 spot is questionable. However, one thing I think we need, and I know this is heresey and I'm likely to get flamed, but...

 

Jim Thome needs to play like he played in the first half of last year. He was so unstoppable - even if he played at 80-90% of that half, that would be awesome. But the second half he just wasn't entirely there. YES, Jim Thome had an awesome season, but taken as two separate halves, you have to admit his first half was above and beyond better.

[GreatScott82]

Its okay i dont like being predicted to go all the way or to finish first anyways. In 2005 we were predicted to finish 4th by most critics... I think the main thing that draws most critics away is our 5th starter question mark... but who knows Danks, Gio or Floyd may have a Verlander type season.

The central will be toughest division in baseball once again! Thats the only thing i know for sure.

[santo=dorf]

QUOTE(Jenksismyb**** @ Jan 17, 2007 -> 02:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So wait. Lets see, Bonderman gets better and better each year and projecting that he'll have a slight falling off is moronic because all indications of his stats point to him having a better year than last year (which doesn't really work in baseball after a few years in the majors, but anyway...)

 

Yet Crede getting better and better each year is a fluke and we got lucky he played so well?

Crede has not been getting better and better each year. He was in a steady decline after 2002.

[05SoxR1]

Crede has not been getting better and better each year. He was in a steady decline after 2002.

What are you talking about? He's on the verge of being the next Brooks Robinson each year!

[AWhiteSoxinNJ]

i think, as of right now, it will be extremely difficult for this team to make the playoff. He completely downgraded our pitching staff, Thome is a year old, Pods is coming off an down year, Dye and Crede are only one 1 year deals, Urbie is a huge question mark and Brian Anderson still can't hit. out of contention? Sad but true. KW gets an F for this offseason.

[witesoxfan]

i think, as of right now, it will be extremely difficult for this team to make the playoff. He completely downgraded our pitching staff, Thome is a year old, Pods is coming off an down year, Dye and Crede are only one 1 year deals, Urbie is a huge question mark and Brian Anderson still can't hit. out of contention? Sad but true. KW gets an F for this offseason.

 

The bullpen cost the Sox multiple games down the stretch, and Podsednik, Anderson, and Uribe were horrible last year. However, those previously mentioned 3 should (read: SHOULD ) improve offensively due to progression to of the mean (simply stating that they will perform closer to their career averages). In the same line of thought process, Thome, Dye, and Crede will all regress. The starters should improve, and the bullpen could be amazing this year (or the backend could be complete garbage again).

 

I am not sure how Dye being in the last year of his contract really hurts the Sox in '07, but whatever.

 

And Crede isn't in the last year of his deal. He's under the Sox control until after the 2008 season. I believe Kalapse has preached that to death.

 

Also, Gavin Floyd hates you too.

[TLAK]

If the White Sox play aggressive team baseball in 2007 nobody is going to beat them.

 

Aggressive

 

Team

 

Baseball

[HawkFan81]

Well, I know it's only Jan 19th, but the Sox havent won a single game this year. So, duh, of course they are out of contention. How could you even think that a team who hasnt won a single freaking game could possibily even think about playoffs? I mean lets get with the program here. Certainly cant gear up for that almighty post season run when you havent even managed to put one stinking victory on the board. Wait.. what's that you say? They havent won a game because they havent.. actually.. played a game yet? Oh. Well I'll be damned. I guess they might have a glimmer of hope afterall.

[GreatScott82]

I truly believe Pods will be in the running for comeback player of the year in '07. And we all know how our offense is when Pods ignites it. I believe our lineup is still one of the most dangerous in the league...so how the hell can we not be a contender?

Pods, Gooch, Thome, Pauly, Dye, Crede, AJ, Anderson, Uribe is still one hell of a lineup. And still the most dangerous 3-4-5 in baseball.

Our bullpen has improved, at least on paper with Jenks, Thorton, Macdougal, Sisco, Masset and Aardsma.

And we still have 4 of the best pitchers in baseball with Buerhle, Garland, Contreras and Vazquez. How can we not be a contender?

Does this team have question marks? Hell yeah, but what team doesnt?

Like i said before the X-factors will be: 1) Scott Podsednick having a great season (60+ SBs and a solid OBP). 2) Brian Anderson breaks out of his cacoon and has a respectable year defensively and offensivley (.280, 25 SBs, 20 HRs, 75 RBIs). 3) Gavin Floyd, will he be what KW and Coop think they thought he was? Or will he struggle and open up a 5th starter competition AKA that infamous BLACK HOLE!? Luckily we have probably the best left handed pitching prospect in baseball in Danks to replace him if necessary.

[witesoxfan]

Well, I know it's only Jan 19th, but the Sox havent won a single game this year. So, duh, of course they are out of contention. How could you even think that a team who hasnt won a single freaking game could possibily even think about playoffs? I mean lets get with the program here. Certainly cant gear up for that almighty post season run when you havent even managed to put one stinking victory on the board. Wait.. what's that you say? They havent won a game because they havent.. actually.. played a game yet? Oh. Well I'll be damned. I guess they might have a glimmer of hope afterall.

 

Very first part of this

 

Luckily we have probably the best left handed pitching prospect in baseball in Danks to replace him if necessary.

 

He is not the best left handed pitching prospect in baseball. And best left handed is sorta similar to tallest midget, only slightly more meaningful. I mean, how much would it matter if he was in fact the best left handed pitching prospect if there were 40 other right handed pitching prospects better than him?

 

FWIW, he was ranked 59th on BA's top 100 prospects last year. LH pitchers in front of him were Francisco Liriano, Jon Lester, Scott Olson, Adam Loewen, Jeremy Sowers, and Scott Elbert.

[Balta1701]

Very first part of this

He is not the best left handed pitching prospect in baseball. And best left handed is sorta similar to tallest midget, only slightly more meaningful. I mean, how much would it matter if he was in fact the best left handed pitching prospect if there were 40 other right handed pitching prospects better than him?

 

FWIW, he was ranked 59th on BA's top 100 prospects last year. LH pitchers in front of him were Francisco Liriano, Jon Lester, Scott Olson, Adam Loewen, Jeremy Sowers, and Scott Elbert.

When BA is evaluating their prospects, they also take into account which level of the minor leagues a player should be starting at, because people can sometimes hit a level and then plateau out or struggel. To my eyes, either most or all of that list of pitchers you just gave were expected to start last season at AAA or above, while Danks hadn't even pitched a full season at AA when the 06 rankings came out.

[WHITESOXRANDY]

The Sox will be really good in 07. The Tigers are the only team as good as the Sox in the Central. Cleveland is not that good. I like their rotation and they have some great offensive players in Sizemore, Hafner and Martinez but after that it's mediocrity/platooners and young hopefuls. Their bullpen is definitely not solid with a bunch of once good vets coming back from injury.

 

There is every reason to believe that the Sox offense will be as good as last year.

 

4 of the 5 starters in the rotation are the same so how different can that be ? Yes, the 5th spot is a ?

 

The bullpen is definitely improved and it was not good last year. If the improved bullpen offsets the weaker 5th spot then we are as good as last year. If Contreras and Buehrle return to form and the 5th spot is decent then we win the division.

[witesoxfan]

When BA is evaluating their prospects, they also take into account which level of the minor leagues a player should be starting at, because people can sometimes hit a level and then plateau out or struggel. To my eyes, either most or all of that list of pitchers you just gave were expected to start last season at AAA or above, while Danks hadn't even pitched a full season at AA when the 06 rankings came out.

 

It's most. All except Elbert were above AA.

[Balta1701]

It's most. All except Elbert were above AA.

And Elbert was #55, while Danks was #59. So in other words, of the class of lefties who should be starting around AAA this season, Danks was ranked as the 2nd best by BA last year. And Elbert didn't exactly murder folks at AA last season (1.35 WHIP, 11 home runs in 11 games), so it's at worst a wash.