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Predict Jim Thome's 500th Homer


joeynach

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Thome needs 28 homers to reach 500. I think its going to be a great thing to watch him join the 500 home run club. I really hope he does it at home so he can have the appropriate message on the board and curtain call and such. It still is such a great milestone especially for a guy that did it the right way like Thome. So when do you think it will happen.

 

Thome hit 42 HR in 490 AB (doesn't include BB of course) last year thats 1 HR in every 11.67 AB's. I predicted Thome to hit 44 HR's in 510 AB's this year (I think he draws less BB), or 85 AB;s per month. Thats 1 Hr every 11.6 AB. That given said Ill say he needs 325 AB's to get his 500th homer. So that puts us at about 3.83 months (3 months, 24 days) into the season he gets his 500th homer. That game ladies and gentlemen would be sometime between July 23-29th on the 7 game homestand against both Detroit and Toronto, so get your tix now.

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I believe he'll have around 470 AB's when the season concludes. If Perez handles lefthanders as well as he has shown in previous seasons, Guillen should limit appearances against certain pitchers within the division. Add this, and perhaps a nagging injury which sets him back a week or two, I'd say July is a bit early. Sometime during the Aug. 24-25 series against Boston is my guess.

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