Building, winning don't mix

[Controlled Chaos]

Building, winning don't mix

 

Williams' moves, geared toward 2008, weaken Sox's attempt to compete this year

 

February 14, 2007

 

 

For one period of time this off-season, way back in November, before the Cubs and other teams started doing crazy signings, Ken Williams was on the right track.

 

Williams, the general manager who constructed the White Sox's 2005 World Series winner, remained confident in the makeup of his roster even though the Sox had just missed the playoffs.

 

 

"We probably played as bad as we could, and we still won 90 games," Williams said.

 

He was right. He was also right to state that the only way it made sense to trade any of his players was if the deal brought back parts that would help the team both in 2007 and in years beyond.

 

But, like Ozzie Guillen in the midst of a conversation, Williams has a hard time stopping himself. So instead of playing it safe, or at least limiting himself to the effort to upgrade in the three positions that contributed heavily to a good team falling short in 2006—center field, left field and shortstop—he started trading pitchers.

 

Out went Freddy Garcia. Out went Brandon McCarthy. In came … well, no one who is likely to replace Garcia or McCarthy, at least not this season.

 

Doesn't Williams realize this is a huge year?

 

Jermaine Dye and Mark Buehrle can be free agents after this season. Joe Crede has two years to go but could price himself out of the organization's plans after one more year. Jim Thome is not going to get younger.

 

This is a year in which the Sox should be marshaling their resources to win every game they possibly can. It could take 95 wins to make the playoffs in a division that includes Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota. But Williams decided it was time to amass young pitching prospects to soften the blow in the likely event that Buehrle, Jon Garland and Javier Vazquez get their next contracts elsewhere.

 

He's trying to achieve two objectives at once: winning and building. Good luck with that.

 

Williams made a move he didn't have to a year ago, and thus far it has backfired on him. Vazquez, the owner of great stuff but minimal grit, did not justify sending Orlando Hernandez, workhorse reliever Luis Vizcaino and center fielder Chris Young to Arizona in exchange for him. The deal will look worse if Young becomes a Rookie of the Year candidate this year, which is possible, but it was bad enough when Vazquez went 11-12 with a 4.84 ERA last season.

 

Had the Sox just put McCarthy in the rotation, which seemed likely after he rolled through the second half of 2005, he would have done better than that—book it. But McCarthy was shoved into the bullpen, where his poor second half led to his being traded to the Texas Rangers for three pitching youngsters, including lefty John Danks, the Rangers' top prospect.

 

There's a pattern here, and it's not good.

 

Another pattern worth considering is the work of baseball's most consistent starting pitchers. Only two big-league starters have won at least 12 games, made at least 31 starts and worked at least 200 innings the last six seasons. Can you name them?

 

Greg Maddux? Close, but not quite. Ditto Barry Zito and Livan Hernandez.

 

The only two starters who meet this criteria: Garcia and Buehrle.

 

What a luxury to have two of those guys on the same staff the last 2½ years. Yes, neither was nearly as sharp in 2006 as in '05, but Garcia—traded to Philadelphia for pitching prospects Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez—will be missed badly. You can count on that.

 

Buehrle seems likely to leave at some point, and Garland will follow him after 2008 if Williams doesn't help Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf get over his fear of signing starting pitchers to four- or five-year contracts.

 

At least the Sox do have some intriguing options in the wings. Knuckleballer Charlie Haeger, a 23-year-old throwing an old man's pitch, could beat out Floyd for the fifth starter's job this spring if he's given a fair shot. It doesn't help that Williams traded the one catcher who can handle him, Chris Stewart, but Haeger looks ready. Ditto left-hander Heath Phillips, who was a big winner for Triple-A Charlotte and Team USA last season.

 

Yet it's clear Williams doesn't quite trust the guys coming from his own farm system, including first-round picks Lance Broadway and Kyle McCullough. Otherwise he would have used what he judged to be a pitching surplus—yeah, right—to fill outfield holes rather than add the likes of Floyd, Gonzalez, Danks, Nick Masset and Andrew Sisco.

 

If the Sox make another playoff run this season, it will be because they get good seasons from guys they already had rather than the guys they acquired in recent moves. Toby Hall, the new backup catcher, will help, but Darin Erstad? He hasn't played a significant role as an outfielder since 2002. It's hard to believe Williams couldn't find a better option.

 

Brian Anderson and prospects Ryan Sweeney and Jerry Owens all seem like better bets in center field than Erstad, who hopes ankle surgery will revive his career. Josh Fields, likely to get a long look in left with Scott Podsednik recovering from a sports hernia, could also have an impact.

 

After managing a .257 on-base percentage last season, the lowest among players with 250 plate appearances, shortstop Juan Uribe should hit better, though his continuing legal problems can't help his focus.

 

This is an excellent team, and it should be for at least a little while longer. But the off-season raised more questions than it answered.

 

 

 

Copyright © 2007, The Chicago Tribune

[southsideirish71]

Phil Rodgers needs to get over the Garcia trade. So let me get this straight, we are a bad team now because we got rid of one pitcher from our rotation yet the cubs add the mighty Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and other spare parts of crap and they are the bestest team in the world. One team won 90 games, the other team lost nearly as many. You would think by Phil's comments that we had the record the cubs did last year.

[HeGone33]

One team won 90 games, the other team lost nearly as many.

 

Actually, it was 96 games they lost wasn't it?

 

Anyways, good point and through this whole offseason, I've never really looked at it as we lost one starter. Looking at it that way, I feel much better going into this year than I have in a while. I think the combined increase in wins from last year for the remaining starting four, plus the amount of wins we will probably get from the 5th spot will more than cover the 17 wins we will miss from Freddy.

 

In addition, the bullpen is no doubt stronger, and we are in much better shape for the future.

Edited February 14, 2007 by HeGone33

[Colorado Sox Fan]

I don't care about the Cubs comparison. I agree with Rogers. There's nothing in the offseason moves that excites me about this team. Say what you want about Freddy, but he would give us 15 wins. Now we have Vazquez as #4 starter vs. #5 and it's anybody's quess who the #5 is. I just don't see how we're a better team without Garcia and Mac. I don't care about 2008 or 2009. I want to see a world series challenger in 2007. This team doesn't cut it, unless we pick up a starter at the trade deadline.

[bigruss]

He fails to mention how white sox fans would respond to a future season like the cubs just had for the white sox if they didnt acquire good young players. The white sox were and are doomed to lose key players in the very near future, and kenny did a good job of atleast giving the sox a chance to replenish some of the holes that will be gaping. Yes he could have gone after position players but im more worried about our starting pitchers than our lineup anyways, and hopefully the power bullpen works out

[southsideirish71]

I don't care about the Cubs comparison. I agree with Rogers. There's nothing in the offseason moves that excites me about this team. Say what you want about Freddy, but he would give us 15 wins. Now we have Vazquez as #4 starter vs. #5 and it's anybody's quess who the #5 is. I just don't see how we're a better team without Garcia and Mac. I don't care about 2008 or 2009. I want to see a world series challenger in 2007. This team doesn't cut it, unless we pick up a starter at the trade deadline.

 

 

Bullcrap. In 2008 and 2009 you would be here moaning about how bad the sox are, and how they didnt think of the future and how could they keep pitchers that were obviously going to leave via free agency.

 

You like a bunch of people probably said in 05, as long as they win the WS I wont care what they do in 06 and 07. Well guess what, its 07 and you do care, just like you will in 08 and 09.

[elrockinMT]

I think the Garcia trade was a huge question mark as far as us giving up a proven winner for youngsters. Freddie developed a new picth and threw back to back one-hitters and that ain't shabby. We lose him and get two potentially good pitchers, but no Aaron Rowand, who I think most will agree is who we wanted. But, anyway we saved money and got two ML ready prospects. Ok, now we wait and see. But, saying the Cubs did good on their pitching selections? Please Mr. Rogers they barely hit the .500 level. Plus they got paid a ton.

[southsideirish71]

I think the Garcia trade was a huge question mark as far as us giving up a proven winner for youngsters. Freddie developed a new picth and threw back to back one-hitters and that ain't shabby. We lose him and get two potentially good pitchers, but no Aaron Rowand, who I think most will agree is who we wanted. But, anyway we saved money and got two ML ready prospects. Ok, now we wait and see. But, saying the Cubs did good on their pitching selections? Please Mr. Rogers they barely hit the .500 level. Plus they got paid a ton.

 

Who wanted rowand? Not me. He is a 4th OF and currently trade bait for the Phillies. If he was so great and grand, teams would like up to trade for him.

[RockRaines]

You know you are being extremely negative when you say that it was a mistake to trade Chris Stewart of all people.

[Reddy]

Bullcrap. In 2008 and 2009 you would be here moaning about how bad the sox are, and how they didnt think of the future and how could they keep pitchers that were obviously going to leave via free agency.

 

You like a bunch of people probably said in 05, as long as they win the WS I wont care what they do in 06 and 07. Well guess what, its 07 and you do care, just like you will in 08 and 09.

[chisox72]

I too am sick to death of the panic mode stuff. Get over the trades already, as they do not leave us in bad shape...

 

In 2005, the 5th starter slot yielded these INCREDIBLE numbers:

 

Hernandez 22 Starts-- 9-9 -- 128.3 IP -- 50 BB -- 90 K -- 5.12 ERA

McCarthy 10 Starts-- 3-2 -- 67 IP -- 17 BB -- 48 K -- 4.03 ERA

(Brandon the irreplaceable)

 

** Editors note: I know, I know, I am going to hear all about his brilliant labor day performance against Boston that earned him his wing in Cooperstown. Lots of pitchers do VERY well against teams with little to no scouting on them. Take a look at how many no names school the Sox on a regular basis**

 

How soon people forget that El Duque (god bless his inning against Boston) was HORRIBLE in the 5th slot that year. There were days he walked out there and it was almost a guaranteed loss. I see no reason at all that one of the kids we have, be it Floyd, Haeger, or Danks, cannot produce better results than that in that slot.

 

But whatever. Sweaty Freddy is gone, mail in the season, call it quits, might as well trade em all away.....

 

The big 4 need to get their s*** back together, that IS where the season will be made or broken. Not the 5th slot. Get Jose, Mark, and Javier to pull their collective heads out of their asses and the division is ours for the taking.

[shoota]

Building, winning don't mix

 

The only two starters who meet this criteria: Garcia and Buehrle.

 

What a luxury to have two of those guys on the same staff the last 2½ years. Yes, neither was nearly as sharp in 2006 as in '05, but Garcia—traded to Philadelphia for pitching prospects Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez—will be missed badly. You can count on that.

 

False, Buehrle was spectacular in the first half of the '06 season. He had an All-Star first half and was recognized for it.

 

Outside of that, I agree with everything in Rogers's column. I didn't think it was newsworthy though, as everything in his article has been thoroughly discussed here on Soxtalk.

[Tannerfan]

What gets me is at the end of the '06 season this board was full of "trade Freddy" posts, and while I'm sure there were some, I do not remember anybody saying "no hold on to Freddy". KW makes the trade and since that day people have been critical about the deal saying "how could we let such a great innings eater/grinder type/winner go. Most people wanted him gone, and he's gone.

I know there are a lot of different opinions around here, which is what makes this place so great. But the consensus was we had to trade Freddy Garcia. I'm not really sure what my point is but to complain about the deals that have been made from the money angle is bogus. Our payroll is the 4th largest in the American league. The deals are designed to blend veteran talent with young talent so the team can become a consistent contender. Did KW make the right deals? Who knows, time will tell. But Phil Rogers' guess is no better than anybody elses. Let's just wait and see. I'm cold, start the season already!

[Balance]

The big 4 need to get their s*** back together, that IS where the season will be made or broken. Not the 5th slot. Get Jose, Mark, and Javier to pull their collective heads out of their asses and the division is ours for the taking.

Preach, brotha!

[mmmmmbeeer]

This is precisely why I was going to give KW a D+ for this postseason in that "if we're set" thread.

 

I can't think of a single team outside of Oakland and Minnesota that has successfully competed every year while always building for the future. It is NOT an easy task and even those teams have yet to reach their ultimate goal.

 

I'm hopeful for this season, but the realist in me says that DET and CLE are going to be very tough, not to mention that MIN always seems to find a way to play well. We're in the most difficult division in baseball and KW is trying to accomplish one of the most difficult maneuvers a GM can attempt. Back in '03 when the Central was a joke we almost made the playoffs with absolutely no production from the #5 spot in the rotation. This isn't the same division today, we can't afford to be giving away wins. Just like last year's debacles with Mack in CF, those games he helped to blow really came back to bite us in the ass.

 

Although the returns on our pitchers didn't really satisfy me, especially the Garcia trade, the thing that really chaps my ass is the fact that we're still heading into this season with an 8-9-1 of uribe, anderson, and pods. That portion of the order is more like an NL lineup than an AL Central lineup. With a $100M payroll there's no excuse for not being able to upgrade one of those slots. I really think that's going to bite us in the ass, even moreso than the rotation.

[southsideirish71]

One day, the mighty Rowand will retire and then all of this crap about reacquiring him will be done. Then the legend of Aaron Rowand will start.

 

 

Aaron Rowand once killed 50 men with a diving catch.

Rowand once single handedly won a world series with his grinderism.

 

He once cured cancer and still had time to rob a Yankee of extra bases with a diving extendo catch.

 

Good lord.

[witesoxfan]

I can't think of a single team outside of Oakland and Minnesota that has successfully competed every year while always building for the future. It is NOT an easy task and even those teams have yet to reach their ultimate goal.

 

Even Minnesota has lost 90 games this decade. That's something the White Sox organization can't claim for shame.

[mmmmmbeeer]

Even Minnesota has lost 90 games this decade. That's something the White Sox organization can't claim for shame.

 

 

With a $30M payroll. Thanks for pointing out another reason why it's so ludicrous to take on this strategy and expect success, we have money whereas OAK and MIN never have. Their GMs build on the fly because that's what they HAVE to do.

[soxfan3530]

Preach, brotha!

 

AMEN!

[CanOfCorn]

Blah-beddy, blah-blah...

 

The Sox are going to be fine. I'll take a contending Sox team over a team that goes in the tank every couple of years...a la the Marlins. Sure, they reach the pinnacle and catch lightning in a bottle twice...but it's definitely harder to keep my attention when you are losing 2 out of 3 than winning 2 out of 3.

 

And it certainly is much more fun to watch when there's a good blend of young and seasoned players. At least to me it is. Garcia gawn...McCarthy gawn...Gload gawn...Cotts gawn...instead of looking back on this offseason and the good/bad parts to it...why don't we look forward to Saturday when pitchers and catchers report? Or April 2nd...opening day?

 

Move on people...move on....

[witesoxfan]

With a $30M payroll. Thanks for pointing out another reason why it's so ludicrous to take on this strategy and expect success, we have money whereas OAK and MIN never have. Their GMs build on the fly because that's what they HAVE to do.

 

So I ask...how has this team been downgraded severely from last year?

 

The only thing that should have been upgraded, but was not, was LF, and atleast there the Sox have options in-house should Podsednik suck complete ass. There's no reason one of the 6 in-house candiates for the 5th starters job can't give the Sox a respectable season, I can't imagine the rotation being much worse than it was last year, and the bullpen has almost undoubtedly improved.

 

And I must also ask...how would the Sox have been able to spend money while also remaining competitive through 2008-10? By signing Gil Meche or Gary Matthews for $10+ mill a year? Juan Pierre for $9? Dave Roberts for $6? It was far too risky to give money to such inconsistent players.

 

KW is not Jesus Christ, and as far as I can tell, it was probably impossible for him to fulfill the fan's expectations.

[SkokieSox]

I don't care about the Cubs comparison. I agree with Rogers. There's nothing in the offseason moves that excites me about this team. Say what you want about Freddy, but he would give us 15 wins. Now we have Vazquez as #4 starter vs. #5 and it's anybody's quess who the #5 is. I just don't see how we're a better team without Garcia and Mac. I don't care about 2008 or 2009. I want to see a world series challenger in 2007. This team doesn't cut it, unless we pick up a starter at the trade deadline.

 

So say we go for it all this year and still don't end up with a WS. Next year would you commit to your statement and be willing for the team to not be competitive, and sign mediocre pitching for top dollar?

[gosox41]

Phil Rodgers needs to get over the Garcia trade. So let me get this straight, we are a bad team now because we got rid of one pitcher from our rotation yet the cubs add the mighty Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and other spare parts of crap and they are the bestest team in the world. One team won 90 games, the other team lost nearly as many. You would think by Phil's comments that we had the record the cubs did last year.

 

 

I still have mixed feelings about the Garcia trade, but hopefully Floyd will make me a believer.

 

As for the Cubs, they sucked last year, and hopefully they'll suck this year. But they have 2 things going for them: they upgraded in many positions (but when you suck you have lots of areas to upgrade in) and the play in the NL Central.

 

 

The Sox are a better team then the Cubs, but the Cubs have a better chance to make the playoffs.

 

 

 

Bob

 

So I ask...how has this team been downgraded severely from last year?

 

The only thing that should have been upgraded, but was not, was LF, and atleast there the Sox have options in-house should Podsednik suck complete ass. There's no reason one of the 6 in-house candiates for the 5th starters job can't give the Sox a respectable season, I can't imagine the rotation being much worse than it was last year, and the bullpen has almost undoubtedly improved.

 

And I must also ask...how would the Sox have been able to spend money while also remaining competitive through 2008-10? By signing Gil Meche or Gary Matthews for $10+ mill a year? Juan Pierre for $9? Dave Roberts for $6? It was far too risky to give money to such inconsistent players.

 

KW is not Jesus Christ, and as far as I can tell, it was probably impossible for him to fulfill the fan's expectations.

 

 

I don't think the team should be downgraded, but I think LF is not the only area that needed to be improved. CF and SS are issues. Hopefully Anderson will mature and Uribe will be playing for a big contrct.

 

 

 

Bob

[maggliopipe]

I can't think of a single team outside of Oakland and Minnesota that has successfully competed every year while always building for the future. It is NOT an easy task and even those teams have yet to reach their ultimate goal.

 

What about Atlanta? I think they're a better comparison for us than Oakland and Minnie, and KW has stated on numerous occasions that the system Scheurholz runs is his model. They've got a top 30% payroll year in-year out, a great pitching coach (well, until he left), and consistently make trades with both the present and future in mind. They're always competitive, but don't ever seem to get it done. It's tough for me to decide whether I'd prefer to be a fan of a team like the Braves who are competitive every year but never good enough to get over the top, or a fan of the Marlins who mix in a championship with a whole bunch of ass seasons.

 

One difference between KW and Scheurholz is the latter seems to prefer to let free agents play out their contracts and let them walk, whereas KW tends to prefer trading them before their walk year.

[witesoxfan]

I don't think the team should be downgraded, but I think LF is not the only area that needed to be improved. CF and SS are issues. Hopefully Anderson will mature and Uribe will be playing for a big contrct.

 

Then who? Find someone at SS and CF that KW could have acquired for a reasonable price while also maintaining some type of core that will allow the team to remain competitive beyond 2007.

 

(and please don't say Aaron Rowand, because he's not an upgrade over Brian Anderson)