Baseball Prospectus

[Flash Tizzle]

Last year wasn't a breakout season for him?

If we're judging based upon improvement from previous seasons, 2003-2004 was a more significant improvement than 2005-2006.

 

What I mean in breakout season with Bonderman is compiling statistics which place him within the Top 5 pitchers in baseball. It's certaintly possible based upon his pure stuff, as well as proof he's improved every season in the majors.

Edited March 1, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[vandy125]

Yeah, Flash posted these here.

 

So, let's see. Yankees win division, Red Sox get the Wild card, Cubs win division, Angels win division, and Twins win division. Have I seen these predictions before...? The only thing missing is the Braves winning their division. What a load of crap.

[thedoctor]

although it may sound stupid i usually put more stock in what vegas's odds are than what various publications put out.

[TLAK]

I get BP every season, and they are no less accurate over the years than all the "experts" that get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars on various networks. I don't buy 72 wins, they use PECOTA and that probably has the offense a lot less effective than last season. I'm sure Gavin Floyd doesn't project too well with just about anybody's systems. And the rest of the White Sox pitching staff is loaded with questions. They could be great, they could be awful. I would think if everything turned bad the Sox would win more than 72, but assuming they are going to win 96+ games is probably equally as crazy.

How does PECOTA handle rookies? Detroit wouldn't have made it last year without Verlander and Zumaya so going on past MLB performance would have missed them (as I and everyone else did).

[CWSGuy406]

How does PECOTA handle rookies? Detroit wouldn't have made it last year without Verlander and Zumaya so going on past MLB performance would have missed them (as I and everyone else did).

 

Minor league stats.

 

Although I will say that projection systems still have a long ways to go with pitchers, specifically bullpen guys. I don't think they'll ever get bullpen guys right. Too many different factors...

[SoxAce]

if the Sox finish 13 games behind the tigers like they say, i'll buy an effing bonderman jersey

 

The scary thing is, there best pitcher (potential wise) is going to be in AAA this season.

[Gregory Pratt]

Same might be said for us.

 

Lance Broadway! Yeah!

 

But seriously. John Danks.

[The Ginger Kid]

They could be great, they could be awful.

 

 

While I'm hoping for great, I'm definitely prepared for awful. If Buehrle doesn't bounce back we're toast. Javy is going to be Javy and with any luck, maybe a little better than he was last year. I'm not looking for miraculous turnarounds from that guy. The 5th spot is a huge, gaping question mark. Could work out fine. Could be a disaster a la Danny Wrong.

[Flash Tizzle]

While I'm hoping for great, I'm definitely prepared for awful. If Buehrle doesn't bounce back we're toast. Javy is going to be Javy and with any luck, maybe a little better than he was last year. I'm not looking for miraculous turnarounds from that guy. The 5th spot is a huge, gaping question mark. Could work out fine. Could be a disaster a la Danny Wrong.

When Buehrle suggests, "it's frustrating when you miss your spots and players hit them," as he did after his start, it's difficult to ignore. Doesn't sound like someone taking spring training lightly.

 

Here's a quote printed on the right-hand box of the Joe Cowley article from yesterday:

"It's something I need to look at. Coop has mentioned early in the count, guys are going up there hacking at the first two or three pitches. I need to concentrate on making a better pitch early in the count and not just throw a pitch to get ahead in the count." - Mark Buehrle on new philosophy that he and pitching coach Don Cooper might start exploring.

 

It's quotes such as these which worry me. Why would it be necessary to change philosophy if his second half states were a fluke; considering all the previous success? I personally believe Mark's velocity has yet to return, and he knows it.

 

Garland atleast admitted he threw only fastballs, but from Buehrle, it sounded as if he were actually trying -- and Rockies' hitters were tagging him. I know I'll be watching his spring traning carefully. It really wouldn't have been an issue if Buehrle himself weren't the one concerned.

[GoodAsGould]

The scary thing is, there best pitcher (potential wise) is going to be in AAA this season.

 

I think Verlander has more potential than Miller, but yes... between Miller/Bonderman/Verlander if the Tigers can control all 3 of those they could be terrorizing us for a long time.

[shoota]

4th worst in the majors?

 

That would be a hell of a draft pick (if KW can sign them)!

 

him, not them. "A draft pick" refers to one person, while "them" is used to describe more than one person.

[whitesoxfan101]

Murphy on the Score today had someone from BP, and he said that their early projection for the Sox this year was...

 

72 and 90.

 

Which struck me as a mite pessimistic, but there you have it. They thought our question marks in the outfield, 5th spot in the rotation, Uribe, and our tough division would add up to one hell of a bad year.

 

I believe they had us going 72 and 90 in 2005 as well, so good.

[Flash Tizzle]

I think Verlander has more potential than Miller, but yes... between Miller/Bonderman/Verlander if the Tigers can control all 3 of those they could be terrorizing us for a long time.

Unfortunately, Danks/Gonzalez/Broadway doesn't really match up with that.

[Hideaway Lights]

someone should tell this guy that the Sox haven't lost 90 games in almost 20 years, and haven't had a losing record since the 90s.

 

That said, I still think 3rd place and about 85 wins seems right.

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(thedoctor @ Mar 1, 2007 -> 12:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

although it may sound stupid i usually put more stock in what vegas's odds are than what various publications put out.

 

The White Sox were 50-1 in January of 2005 to win the World Series in 2005. I know because I placed a 50 dollar bet on them to win it. It was a nice!

 

I am just saying, it isn;t good to put stock in their odds either. I am sure Detroit didn't have very good odds to make it to the World Series last year.

 

 

QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Mar 2, 2007 -> 09:26 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unfortunately, Danks/Gonzalez/Broadway doesn't really match up with that.

 

Umm, how do you know? How do you know someone like Sisco can't develop into an unbelievable starter? He has a lot of potential. How do you know their young guys don't get hurt. Plus the White Sox punished Verlander all year last year.

[whitesoxfan101]

Unfortunately, Danks/Gonzalez/Broadway doesn't really match up with that.

 

No, but to poo poo on those 3 is making a significant mistake, they could be awfully good. Not as polished as the Detroit 3 though.

[knightni]

him, not them. "A draft pick" refers to one person, while "them" is used to describe more than one person.

 

 

Maybe I'm wrong here, but the Sox would have the #4 in the 2nd, 3rd etc as well, wouldn't they?

[Flash Tizzle]

No, but to poo poo on those 3 is making a significant mistake, they could be awfully good. Not as polished as the Detroit 3 though.

They'll never be as polished as those three. I'll guarantee that.

 

I don't know sometimes. It just seems like we're assembling a collection of #3 (at best #2) starters while teams within our division have #1 and #2's. Within the next several years, with one/two veteran starters probably on the block, I expect more in return than the Cliff Floyd's of the world. We have to aim higher.

 

And yes, I realize (especially with Cleveland an Detroit) they've assembled arms through draft positions. It's just something we'll have to overcome.

Edited March 2, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[hitlesswonder]

I don't know sometimes. It just seems like we're assembling a collection of #3 (at best #2) starters while teams within our division have #1 and #2's. Within the next several years, with one/two veteran starters probably on the block, I expect more in return than the Cliff Floyd's of the world. We have to aim higher.

 

I absolutely agree. Bonderman, Verlander, and Miller all have great, great stuff (the first 2 have fatsballs that legitmately sit at 95 and 98 MPH, in addition to good breaking stuff). There isn't a single starting pitcher in the Sox organization outside of Contreras that has an arm like that. The reality is that none of Danks, Gio, Sisco, and Broadway project to be dominating in the bigs. They simply aren't in the same league as guys like Pelfrey, Hughes, Bailey, Garza, etc.

 

I understand that the Sox haven't had the best draft position, but neither have the Yankees, BoSox, and Twins and yet they have great minor league pitching. And the Sox bear repsonsibility for routinely not offering arbitration to FAs to get more picks, and not drafting guys with signability issues. I'm assuming that both those issues come down to the budget they have for the amateur draft.

 

Anyway, I'd really like to see the Sox have a minor league pitcher with legitimately great stuff. I don't see one right now. The Sox aren't going to get an ace on the FA market, they have to develop one on their own.

[Jordan4life_2007]

They'll never be as polished as those three. I'll guarantee that.

 

I don't know sometimes. It just seems like we're assembling a collection of #3 (at best #2) starters while teams within our division have #1 and #2's. Within the next several years, with one/two veteran starters probably on the block, I expect more in return than the Cliff Floyd's of the world. We have to aim higher.

 

And yes, I realize (especially with Cleveland an Detroit) they've assembled arms through draft positions. It's just something we'll have to overcome.

 

Then why do you keep whining about it?

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Mar 2, 2007 -> 11:46 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

They'll never be as polished as those three. I'll guarantee that.

 

I don't know sometimes. It just seems like we're assembling a collection of #3 (at best #2) starters while teams within our division have #1 and #2's. Within the next several years, with one/two veteran starters probably on the block, I expect more in return than the Cliff Floyd's of the world. We have to aim higher.

 

And yes, I realize (especially with Cleveland an Detroit) they've assembled arms through draft positions. It's just something we'll have to overcome.

 

I believe it is called "the grass is always greener" syndrome. Cliff Floyd? What?

[Jordan4life_2007]

I absolutely agree. Bonderman, Verlander, and Miller all have great, great stuff (the first 2 have fatsballs that legitmately sit at 95 and 98 MPH, in addition to good breaking stuff). There isn't a single starting pitcher in the Sox organization outside of Contreras that has an arm like that. The reality is that none of Danks, Gio, Sisco, and Broadway project to be dominating in the bigs. They simply aren't in the same league as guys like Pelfrey, Hughes, Bailey, Garza, etc.

 

I understand that the Sox haven't had the best draft position, but neither have the Yankees, BoSox, and Twins and yet they have great minor league pitching. And the Sox bear repsonsibility for routinely not offering arbitration to FAs to get more picks, and not drafting guys with signability issues. I'm assuming that both those issues come down to the budget they have for the amateur draft.

 

Anyway, I'd really like to see the Sox have a minor league pitcher with legitimately great stuff. I don't see one right now. The Sox aren't going to get an ace on the FA market, they have to develop one on their own.

 

Great minor league pitching? This should be good. The Yanks have one guy they actually drafted worth a damn in Hughes. And he hasn't proven squat at the major league level. Red Sox? Papelbon? And? The Twins? Is Matt Garza the second coming already? You need to stop coattailing Tizzle.

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(hitlesswonder @ Mar 2, 2007 -> 12:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I absolutely agree. Bonderman, Verlander, and Miller all have great, great stuff (the first 2 have fatsballs that legitmately sit at 95 and 98 MPH, in addition to good breaking stuff). There isn't a single starting pitcher in the Sox organization outside of Contreras that has an arm like that. The reality is that none of Danks, Gio, Sisco, and Broadway project to be dominating in the bigs. They simply aren't in the same league as guys like Pelfrey, Hughes, Bailey, Garza, etc.

 

I understand that the Sox haven't had the best draft position, but neither have the Yankees, BoSox, and Twins and yet they have great minor league pitching. And the Sox bear repsonsibility for routinely not offering arbitration to FAs to get more picks, and not drafting guys with signability issues. I'm assuming that both those issues come down to the budget they have for the amateur draft.

 

Anyway, I'd really like to see the Sox have a minor league pitcher with legitimately great stuff. I don't see one right now. The Sox aren't going to get an ace on the FA market, they have to develop one on their own.

 

Sisco doesn't? He is a 6'10" lefty that consistently gets his fastball to the 95-97 area. He also has a very good curve. He has some control issues but his stuff is pretty damn good. You are in very good shape anytime you have 3 lefties with the potential of Gio, Danks, and Sisco. It seems as the Yankees always have big time prospects that get sent elsewhere and don't pan out, so I would be a bit leary of calling the Yankees minor league system very good. The Yankees and the media seem to talk up their prospects quite a bit.

 

How do you know the Sox won't be able to buy an ace on the FA market? That sounds like a bunch of pessimism and "grass is always greener" attitude to me.

 

You will probably use this great line by negative fans and pessimists that I love:

 

"I bet they don't, but if they do I will be pleasantly surprised."

Edited March 2, 2007 by southsideirish

[bigruss]

I absolutely agree. Bonderman, Verlander, and Miller all have great, great stuff (the first 2 have fatsballs that legitmately sit at 95 and 98 MPH, in addition to good breaking stuff). There isn't a single starting pitcher in the Sox organization outside of Contreras that has an arm like that. The reality is that none of Danks, Gio, Sisco, and Broadway project to be dominating in the bigs. They simply aren't in the same league as guys like Pelfrey, Hughes, Bailey, Garza, etc.

 

I understand that the Sox haven't had the best draft position, but neither have the Yankees, BoSox, and Twins and yet they have great minor league pitching. And the Sox bear repsonsibility for routinely not offering arbitration to FAs to get more picks, and not drafting guys with signability issues. I'm assuming that both those issues come down to the budget they have for the amateur draft.

 

Anyway, I'd really like to see the Sox have a minor league pitcher with legitimately great stuff. I don't see one right now. The Sox aren't going to get an ace on the FA market, they have to develop one on their own.

 

 

I know how much I'll get bashed for saying this, but the sox just dont have enough money to compete with teams like the Red Sox, and Yankees (okay the Twins are just different, we should jsut hire out their scouting department) and so they can afford to offer arb andd overpay for a guy/get draft picks, and they are also able to bring out the cash for "committed" players in the draft, they will shelve out thousands if not millions more for a player, and sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesnt, but they are able to after these higher ceiling guys and in much more quantity, they i see it is that the sox can only afford to go after a couple of these guys each year, while spreading the money around to more "solid" or "safe" prospects giving them more of a chance to contribute something to the big league club in the future (since higher ceiling prospects are more risky and dont pan out as often) while teams like the yanks and bosox can afford to draft many moer of the higherceiling guys (not to mention they have the picks from arbitration players) and can draft more meaning a greater amount of talent contributing to the big league club.

 

Its a cycle to me, the Red Sox spend lots of money on the draft, develop these guys, sign free agents, and win games with the high ceiling prospects, then they develop a surplus of players and are able to trade or let them go thru ways like arb and get those good picks, all the while they are racking in the big bucks from their strong market, and that leads to the beginning again of able to draft the guys

 

i dont know if the WSox can afford a cycle like that because it does cost a lot of money and you dont always win in giving a player arb, (we would have been stuck with riske since no one was going to give up a first round pick for him) and so teams like the Red Sox are able to absorb those hits with their deep pockets

 

and i just wanted to mention that the Red Sox declined to give an extension to schilling and now he plans to hit free agency next year, jsut thought i would say taht so people would realize that the Wsox arent the only team not able to afford all their players or dont want all of them back due to other reasons

[Jordan4life_2007]

Sisco doesn't? He is a 6'10" lefty that consistently gets his fastball to the 95-97 area. He also has a very good curve. He has some control issues but his stuff is pretty damn good. You are in very good shape anytime you have 3 lefties with the potential of Gio, Danks, and Sisco. It seems as the Yankees always have big time prospects that get sent elsewhere and don't pan out, so I would be a bit leary of calling the Yankees minor league system very good. The Yankees and the media seem to talk up their prospects quite a bit. How do you know the Sox won't be able to buy an ace on the FA market? That sounds like a bunch of pessimism and "grass is always greener" attitude to me.

 

You will probably use this great line by negative fans and pessimists that I love:

 

"I bet they don't, but if they do I will be pleasantly surprised."

 

The Yankees system has been hippo crap for quite sometime. They're just now realizing that player development, not just spending 500 million dollars a year, is pretty damn important.