Today is the Day! (3-18 Thread)

[Flash Tizzle]

We heard that last year. Haeger had a BAA against him last season in the major leagues of .182. He averaged over a strikeout an inning. He walked a few, but his ERA was 3.44. He didn't allow a homer. His numbers, and obviously its a very small sample size, where much better than Javier Vazquez's and the Sox have him for 4 more years at over $40 million. How come Haeger doesn't get a fair shot?

Trade bait? Maybe Cooper knows Williams is attempting to unload Haeger onto another ballclub.

 

I sure hope this isn't true.

Edited March 18, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[spiderman]

Danks and Floyd are now separated by .75 ERA.

 

Looks like we have a competition again (sigh)

 

Are we calling this a competition ? We don't have a 5th starter - just a bunch of young arms with good potential who probably aren't ready to pitch in the majors, much less for a team that's expected to win 95 games. It's early, and let's hold off on overreacting, but I'm not sure we have anything more than a revolving door in the 5th spot.

[Dick Allen]

Trade bait? I hope not, but I do find it strange how management (ie, Cooper) seems to have the 'race' between Floyd and Danks.

If they traded him and got a guy like Lieber, I'd be fine with it. There is no doubt in my mind though that Charlie would outperform Danks and Floyd in the 5th spot in 2007. Considering all of the White Sox overhyped prospects from the late 90's on, you know the prospects as a whole that were ranked #1 and ultimately got KW the farm director, the GM job, the one who wasn't as hyped as all the others, who had the biggest success, was Buerhle, hardly a flamethrower. Haeger has a reasonable chance to have a Wakefield-type career.

[spiderman]

Trade bait? Maybe Cooper knows Williams is attempting to unload Haeger onto another ballclub.

 

I sure hope this isn't true.

 

Haegar might be the best choice for the 5th starter just because we can keep him out there for 7 innings a start without overworking the bullpen.

[Capn12]

I think Haegar could do wonders in this pen, with all the hard throwing guys we have...would be a great compliment if he isn't going to get a fair shake at the 5th starter spot, which we all know he isnt.

[Greg The Bull Luzinski]

If they traded him and got a guy like Lieber, I'd be fine with it. There is no doubt in my mind though that Charlie would outperform Danks and Floyd in the 5th spot in 2007. Considering all of the White Sox overhyped prospects from the late 90's on, you know the prospects as a whole that were ranked #1 and ultimately got KW the farm director, the GM job, the one who wasn't as hyped as all the others, who had the biggest success, was Buerhle, hardly a flamethrower. Haeger has a reasonable chance to have a Wakefield-type career.

 

Are you saying Scott Ruffcorn shouldn't be considered for the 5th starter this year either?

 

The good news is that we now have a plethora of pitching prospects to trade. Yet it would seem somewhat of an admission of failure if we trade again with the Phils to get a starter after we just traded a starter to them.

[southsideirish71]

If they traded him and got a guy like Lieber, I'd be fine with it. There is no doubt in my mind though that Charlie would outperform Danks and Floyd in the 5th spot in 2007. Considering all of the White Sox overhyped prospects from the late 90's on, you know the prospects as a whole that were ranked #1 and ultimately got KW the farm director, the GM job, the one who wasn't as hyped as all the others, who had the biggest success, was Buerhle, hardly a flamethrower. Haeger has a reasonable chance to have a Wakefield-type career.

 

Lieber is a 37 year old pitcher who got rocked in a horrible NL. I think I will pass on that.

[jackie hayes]

Considering he is 28-11 the past 2 seasons in the minors, and was not too bad in the majors after his initial start (I'm sure nobody ever is nervous their first major league game) its unbelievable to me he's not the frontrunner for this job. It really should be his to lose.

I agree, but it's a lost cause. It's obvious he's not going to get that spot.

[witesoxfan]

Its not just his ERA. He's getting wins. He eats innings, and if catchers can't catch it, hitters can't hit it. Its better than watching Danks and Floyd pitch home run derby, which is probably going to happen if either one of them is in the rotation.

 

Just because hitters can't hit it doesn't mean he's throwing strikes though either.

 

Regardless of who the 5th starter is, there's going to be inconsistency throughout the year, be it Haeger, Danks, or Floyd.

[spiderman]

Just because hitters can't hit it doesn't mean he's throwing strikes though either.

 

Regardless of who the 5th starter is, there's going to be inconsistency throughout the year, be it Haeger, Danks, or Floyd.

 

And is we have a 5th starter who sucks, does that cost us the division if we need 95 wins ?

[Dick Allen]

Lieber is a 37 year old pitcher who got rocked in a horrible NL. I think I will pass on that.

He had groin issues last year. He won 17 I think in 2005. He's only signed for 1 season, and for a 5th guy, a veteran who doesn't walk a lot of people, I think he would have to be considered. I doubt they do.

 

Ironically, he is the guy KW thought Todd Ritchie would be when he traded for him.

Edited March 18, 2007 by Dick Allen

[Greg The Bull Luzinski]

And is we have a 5th starter who sucks, does that cost us the division if we need 95 wins ?

If we can not get 10-12 wins out of the 5th starter, we may be looking at 4th place. We certainly will not be a viable contender with a 2004-type rotation.

[Flash Tizzle]

Are we calling this a competition ? We don't have a 5th starter - just a bunch of young arms with good potential who probably aren't ready to pitch in the majors, much less for a team that's expected to win 95 games. It's early, and let's hold off on overreacting, but I'm not sure we have anything more than a revolving door in the 5th spot.

This is more overreaction than anything I've said.

 

If this 5th starters spot doesn't work itself out, quite simply, Williams will look like an idiot. He preached to us the arms acquired could possibly fit the rotation. Especially Floyd. The perceived goals of dealing Garcia and McCarthy was to improve ourselves in the future while not sacrificing much of the present. He's repeated this sentiment on the radio and on TV. Anyone but the Williams' Asslickers and the baseball retarded realize this.

 

No viable 5th starter = relenting criticism onto Williams.

 

Trading for a 5th starter now = relenting criticism onto Williams.

 

It's fine dealing starters such as Garcia and McCarthy if the return packages make it worthwhile. The Garcia deal, in particular, was highly debatable. Our scouts should be held accountable if Floyd fails to perform, considering they were assigned by Williams to monitor Philadelphia's farm system for quite some time; including the Arizona fall league.

[Dick Allen]

Just because hitters can't hit it doesn't mean he's throwing strikes though either.

 

Regardless of who the 5th starter is, there's going to be inconsistency throughout the year, be it Haeger, Danks, or Floyd.

Granted it only was 18+ innings last season, but the AL hit .182 against him.

[southsideirish71]

He had groin issues last year. He won 17 I think in 2005. He's only signed for 1 season, and for a 5th guy, a veteran who doesn't walk a lot of people, I think he would have to be considered. I doubt they do.

 

If he was free, sure. But if you have to trade anything, especially anything of value for a 37 year old pitcher with some groin issues who's era has been rising over the last 3 seasons, then its time to take a flier on something else. Wait for the eventual ST releases before you do that.

[RockRaines]

Looks like Floyd was much more impressive than Danks today judging by their line.

 

3 hits in 4.1 IP is always a decent outing no matter who you are facing.

[Flash Tizzle]

Looks like Floyd was much more impressive than Danks today judging by their line.

 

3 hits in 4.1 IP is always a decent outing no matter who you are facing.

You're not taking into account the umpire, or the outgoing wind.

 

This is why you need to separate Floyd and Danks. People may assume Floyd pitched better, and he did, but it wasn't against the same hitters as Danks faced.

[witesoxfan]

And is we have a 5th starter who sucks, does that cost us the division if we need 95 wins ?

 

granted, the entire team put up a 3.61 ERA, but that's what the Sox had in 2005 too, and that didn't really stop them.

 

If the offense is good enough - and it should be - the team should be good with a team ERA around 4.25, and probably good enough to win a lot of games.

[Flash Tizzle]

If the offense is good enough - and it should be - the team should be good with a team ERA around 4.25, and probably good enough to win a lot of games.

Assuming there's a 4.25 ERA among the five, we're expecting every starter -- including the 5th starter, whom replaces Garcia -- to improve upon last years numbers. Or, for several starters to experience career seasons and the remaining pitchers to match last seasons performance.

 

There are several other combinations, as well. Every one depends upon two/three starters remarkably improving and the others atleast standing pat.

 

What also doesn't help our cause is the strength of the American League central, which makes sustaining a 4.25ERA seem ever less likely.

 

I'm really growing more pessimistic about our chances to reach the playoffs every passing day.

[shawnhillegas]

Im in Pheonix and went to the game. The Wind was blowing out HARD. Danks didnt look too bad, but Adrian Gonzalez's homer had to go 480 feet. Floyd did not look crisp, but was effective. The offense looked A+.

[witesoxfan]

Assuming there's a 4.25 ERA among the five, we're expecting every starter -- including the 5th starter, whom replaces Garcia -- to improve upon last years numbers. Or, for several starters to experience career seasons and the remaining pitchers to match last seasons performance.

 

There are several other combinations, as well. Every one depends upon two/three starters remarkably improving and the others atleast standing pat.

 

What also doesn't help our cause is the strength of the American League central, which makes sustaining a 4.25ERA seem ever less likely.

 

I'm really growing more pessimistic about our chances to reach the playoffs every passing day.

 

That's understandable, and I'm not nearly as optimistic at this time as I was last year. However, I do think all 4 of the returning starters will improve, and I think the bullpen will be very, very good, probably the 2nd best in the AL Central to Minnesota with potential to be the best in the majors.

 

Right now, I'm actually not overly concerned with the pitching staff, crazy as it sounds. I just hope and pray Buehrle's velocity returns and he can start hitting his spots - a quality start or two would be nice to see in the first month. It would also be nice to see Garland start off the year well, because if he does, he'll have a great year. As I recall, it's always April and May that kill Garland. My real main fear is the consistency of the offense, and how it's going to shake out. The thought of Pods-Erstad at the top of the lineup just disgusts me, and it's mainly because of Pods. However, if those two can put up a combined OBP of even .330, the Sox offense will click.

[fathom]

I'm really growing more pessimistic about our chances to reach the playoffs every passing day.

 

I'll be just as surprised if we win the division as I would if we came in 4th place. The Indians and Tigers definitely got stronger over the offseason, and we did not. The Indians are my pick to win the division.

[DBAHO]

Very happy with what Floyd produced today. It's what he needed to show if he wants to win this 5th starter's job, and I still think he will when it's all said and done.

 

And I think that's probably the best thing for John Danks as well. He's only pitched something like 81 innings in AAA, and we have abolsutely no need to rush him if he's not 100% ready. I just see a lot of similarities with the Brandon McCarthy situation back in 2005.

 

I know that may not be the absolute best decision in the short - term, but I'm thinking about the long - term here.

 

But hey, who knows what Floyd will do if he gets a chance, and like wite said, an ERA around the 5-5.5 mark is really what we need from him.

 

Offensively, things look to be clicking nicely as well which is good to see.

[Flash Tizzle]

But hey, who knows what Floyd will do if he gets a chance, and like wite said, an ERA around the 5-5.5 mark is really what we need from him.

This just won't get it done.

 

Put together the numbers and try to figure it out. Let's say 4.25 ERA is the necessary average for the rotation to reach the playoffs.

 

Floyd - (extremely conservative here) 5.00ERA

Buehrle - 4.25 ERA

Contreras - 4.00 ERA

Garland - 4.50 ERA

Vazquez - 3.60 ERA

 

The average of these numbers? 4.27. I didn't change Garland's because he is probably the least likely of the starters to drastically improve.

 

Basically, we'll need Vazquez to throw a career season, Contreras and Buehrle to improve, and Floyd/Danks to produce an ERA around 5. It just doesn't seem very realistic when you put it all together. You can throw any name into any category, but the results remain similar -- the 5th starter must produce, two/three starters must show noticeable improvement, and someone needs a career year.

 

I do believe, however, that the bullpen should be an improvement over last season. Offense may regress, though. It just seems realistic to me, unless we're reliving 2005, our win total will fall around 85 games.

Edited March 19, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[RockRaines]

I'll be just as surprised if we win the division as I would if we came in 4th place. The Indians and Tigers definitely got stronger over the offseason, and we did not. The Indians are my pick to win the division.

Im not sure they got better, the tribes pen is still utterly terrible. Also the twins pitching should be a little worse as well.