Today is the Day! (3-18 Thread)

[SleepyWhiteSox]

I'm really growing more pessimistic about our chances to reach the playoffs every passing day.

 

Sorry to hear that...

[fathom]

Im not sure they got better, the tribes pen is still utterly terrible. Also the twins pitching should be a little worse as well.

 

I love the additions they made to their already stellar offense. The only chance we have to win the division this year is if we can win at least 33 percent of the games we face against the top lefty pitchers in our division (Santana, C.C., Rogers). Last year, we didn't beat any of these starters more than once, and that's just too many games to give up to your division rivals. FREE EDUARDO PEREZ!

[Flash Tizzle]

Im not sure they got better, the tribes pen is still utterly terrible. Also the twins pitching should be a little worse as well.

I'd really like to believe that. I just know better then to count out anything from Minnesota regarding pitching.

[3E8]

You're not taking into account the umpire, or the outgoing wind.

 

This is why you need to separate Floyd and Danks. People may assume Floyd pitched better, and he did, but it wasn't against the same hitters as Danks faced.

My MLB.tv goes out during the bottom of the sixth when Floyd was still facing major leaguers, but from the box score it looks like he recorded 13 outs and maybe 3 or 4 of those outs were to scrubs? For the most part, he faced the same batters as Danks. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[witesoxfan]

This just won't get it done.

 

Put together the numbers and try to figure it out. Let's say 4.25 ERA is the necessary average for the rotation to reach the playoffs.

 

Floyd - (extremely conservative here) 5.00ERA

Buehrle - 4.25 ERA

Contreras - 4.00 ERA

Garland - 4.50 ERA

Vazquez - 3.60 ERA

 

The average of these numbers? 4.27. I didn't change Garland's because he is probably the least likely of the starters to drastically improve.

 

Basically, we'll need Vazquez to throw a career season, Contreras and Buehrle to improve, and Floyd/Danks to produce an ERA around 5. It just doesn't seem very realistic when you put it all together. You can throw any name into any category, but the results remain similar -- the 5th starter must produce, two/three starters must show noticeable improvement, and someone needs a career year.

 

I do believe, however, that the bullpen should be an improvement over last season. Offense may regress, though. It just seems realistic to me, unless we're reliving 2005, our win total will fall around 85 games.

 

I actually got a different number from you for ERA, because you have to project IP as well. I used 220 for Buehrle, 210 for Vazquez, 200 for Contreras, 215 for Garland, and 180 from the 5th starter. My result was actually 4.26, so really there was no difference, just a different number.

 

However, it's entirely possible that any of those top 4 could go over my projected numbers and still maintain such ERAs...Contreras likely won't, because the most innings he's ever thrown was 204 in 2005. However, Vazquez hit the 230 innings mark in 2002-03, and his mechanics and arm are such that he likely will never suffer a major injury. If he can just consistently get guys out, he may get there. Garland's also a possibility so long as he doesn't get torn apart early in the season like he did last year. He threw 220 in '05, and I could easily see him getting there or above as well. Buehrle's hard to predict right now, because he's coming off a horrendous half a season, and he's shown nothing really at all to suggest he'll be back to pre-ASB form to open the season. However, if he can just be consistent and pitch well, he could put up 230-240 innings for the Sox, and it's entirely plausible that he could go beyond that too.

 

There are a few keys for all of the returning 4; Vazquez needs to stop blowing up in the 6th, Contreras needs to stay healthy, Garland needs to pitch well enough in the first 2 months to have a respectable ERA going into June, and Buehrle needs to just get back to pre-ASB 2006 form. If they can do that, I could easily see all 4 of those guys having ERAs right around 4. If that happens, the rotation will put up an ERA of right around 4.15-4.25, which is the target number.

 

That's also not including the bullpen either, which I think will probably put up an ERA of right around 3.25 or so. Thornton seems like a prime candiate to break out and emerge as one of the league's best relievers statistically, MacDougal will be very good if he can stay healthy, Jenks has to maintain his velocity all year, and then the final 3 - whomever they may be - just need to be good, and that ERA should be right around the 3.00-3.50 range.

 

What I expect this year is for everything to sort of even out. I expect the offense to regress slightly, so probably around 825 runs, the rotation to put up an ERA closer to 4.25 than 4.75, and the bullpen to be good up and down instead of just the late inning guys. I always have high expectations though, so it's completely understandable that these seem, on some scale, slightly unrealistic. That's fine, because if my scenario plays out, the team could 95-100 games. It's really hard to expect that.

[Buehrle>Wood]

I want to suggest this again(Didn't read the thread if it has been already suggested):

 

 

Do we need a 5th starter for April? I don't think we do. Why not send everyone down for some extended competition? Keep Haegar up for the last pen spot and use the extra roster spot for a posistion player.

[witesoxfan]

I want to suggest this again(Didn't read the thread if it has been already suggested):

Do we need a 5th starter for April? I don't think we do. Why not send everyone down for some extended competition? Keep Haegar up for the last pen spot and use the extra roster spot for a posistion player.

 

April 11, April 22, April 27

 

It's needed like right away. Maybe it's conceivable that both could get a start in Charlotte before it's determined, but it's one start and no more than that.

[Flash Tizzle]

I want to suggest this again(Didn't read the thread if it has been already suggested):

Do we need a 5th starter for April? I don't think we do. Why not send everyone down for some extended competition? Keep Haegar up for the last pen spot and use the extra roster spot for a posistion player.

It'd be an absolute mess to avoid the 5th starters spot for all of April. If something such as that were to occur, Contreras -- for example -- would pitch on three days rest four times, four days rest one time, and five days rest another. That's just him. I'm sure the others have odd schedules as well.

 

Really, the first month is really a pain in the ass to project starters. 5th starter or not. I have no idea how Guillen and Williams plan on solving this.

 

One time through the rotation we can afford to miss the 5th starter, as Wite suggested. April 7th, their first start, would be a projected meeting against Santana. That's just a no win situation for either Danks or Floyd. Either one of them sould instead pitch April 8th. This immediately places everyone in their routines of four days rest. Well, until the off day on the 12th. Then it gets a little tricky, especially considering the offday four days later on the 16th. Either several pitchers are going to be throwing bullpen sessions during this period, or they should prepare themselves to possibly wait a week between starts.

 

Oh, and that Santana character? Based upon opening day for the Twins, I have him projected to pitch against us in the first three series of the season.

Edited March 19, 2007 by Flash Tizzle

[southsider2k5]

FWIW, Farmer really stressed that Danks "ran out of gas" in the 4th inning everytime he talked about his outing. Both kids sounded like they pitched well, except for the one Danks inning. There is nothing but good stuff that comes from both guys pitching this well.

[DBAHO]

I really have a ton of respect for the Twins organization, but they have much bigger problems than we do. Ponson at 4?

And not only that. Ramon Ortiz at the #3 spot and he showed absolutely NOTHING for Washington last season, Carlos Silva pitching #2 and his sinker hasn't been the same since a couple of seasons ago so they've got more problems on the pitching side than us I'd say.

 

They could start off the way they did last season, and are they good enough to recover this time if that happens, in what should be a more competitive AL Central this season?