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QUOTE(ptatc @ Mar 22, 2007 -> 08:07 PM)
Another thought is about the splitter. The was a decent article in Baseball weekly discussing how pitchers who pick up the splitter or forkball later in their careers have a high incidence of shoulder injuries. The question is did the pitch cause the injury or was the career going down so they tried a new pitch which didn't help.

At least based on the reports last year, Freddy developed that splitter about half way through the season. As you point out, his velocity drop started well before that, from mid 90's with Seattle to Low 90's in 05 with us to high 80's in the first part of 06. It might have something to do with it now, or he might have been working on the pitch before press reports claimed he was, but I think the timing argues against the splitter itself being the sole cause of his velocity drop.

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QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Mar 23, 2007 -> 10:59 AM)
At least based on the reports last year, Freddy developed that splitter about half way through the season. As you point out, his velocity drop started well before that, from mid 90's with Seattle to Low 90's in 05 with us to high 80's in the first part of 06. It might have something to do with it now, or he might have been working on the pitch before press reports claimed he was, but I think the timing argues against the splitter itself being the sole cause of his velocity drop.

 

iwas thinking that maybe it was the source of the current shoulder trouble.

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Here's something from the PhilliesPhan Page.

 

Amaro said the Phillies spoke with White Sox medical personnel about Garcia and reviewed the pitcher's health records. The Phillies did not order an MRI or physical exam before the deal.

 

"We didn't think it was necessary," Amaro said. "We consulted with their medical people, and nothing precluded us from making the deal, especially not with the comfort level we had with [White Sox general manager] Kenny Williams.

 

"With trades, it's buyer beware. It always has been. We felt comfortable enough with the information gathered from their medical people."

 

Amaro was asked whether Garcia ever had a similar problem with the White Sox.

 

"I don't know that I'm at liberty to say that," he said, citing health-privacy laws.

 

Garcia said he never had had a problem like this before. However, according to media reports in Chicago, he experienced shoulder stiffness during spring training last year but was never shut down.

 

Earlier this spring, Garcia did admit to having a tired arm last season. He pointed to the previous season as the reason for that. In 2005, he pitched 228 innings during the regular season and 21 in the postseason.

 

"This might be normal wear and tear," Amaro said.

 

Regardless of what it is, Freddy Garcia is feeling pain in his pitching arm, and he has not even made his first official start for the Phillies yet. That's never good news.

 

And this

 

It wasn't just that finish that gave the Phils confidence in making the deal. Amaro said the Phillies spoke with White Sox medical personnel about Garcia and reviewed the pitcher's health records. The Phillies did not order an MRI or physical exam before the deal.

 

I think this is kind of interesting. I'm really surprised they wouldn't order a physical.

Edited by G&T
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QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Mar 23, 2007 -> 10:15 PM)
If the Phillies didn't examine Freddy, I would be willing to bet the White Sox didn't examine Gio or Floyd. Maybe if they did, they would have found out Floyd had no balls, and moved on.
:lolhitting
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All the Philly GM had to do was search the internet for "Freddy Garcia + arm trouble" or "Freddy Garcia + velocity" and I am sure he could have come across hundreds of Soxtalk posts from 2006 complaining about his drop in velocity since joining the white sox. I just dont see how it wasnt noticeable outside of Chicago, the guy used to regularly run it up to 94 MPH or better.

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QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Mar 23, 2007 -> 11:06 PM)
It makes Philly look awful. I would assume there is a heavy amount of scouting that goes into most any trade, and this was a rather major one. Everyone and their mother knew Garcia lost a good amount of velocity off his stuff. To not have an MRI or even a physical done on the player in question is just irresponsible.

 

i'm very surpirsed they didn't do a physical. However, not doing an MRI is routine if the pitcher has not had a history of arm trouble. An MRI will only find major things. Under surface tears and small things are rarely found with this.

There is no reason to be suspicious of FG having arm trouble because he hasn't missed any starts despite the heavy work load the last two years. He may have been tired and worn out but no significant injuries.

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QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Mar 24, 2007 -> 08:54 AM)
All the Philly GM had to do was search the internet for "Freddy Garcia + arm trouble" or "Freddy Garcia + velocity" and I am sure he could have come across hundreds of Soxtalk posts from 2006 complaining about his drop in velocity since joining the white sox. I just dont see how it wasnt noticeable outside of Chicago, the guy used to regularly run it up to 94 MPH or better.

 

armtrouble.jpg

 

 

:lolhitting

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http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...phia-phillies2/

 

Five Questions: Philadelphia Phillies

 

4. How did the Phillies get Freddy Garcia for so little?

 

This question is worth a couple of answers, starting with the speculation swirling around camp that the veteran right-hander isn't what he used to be.

 

He's still quite strong, and the numbers will back it up. Using no particular measure, he was a top 15-20 starter in the American League last season, and has a chance to be more dominant in the weaker NL East. Garcia was a nice acquisition by Phillies GM Pat Gillick, escaping the rat trap of free agency.

 

Unfortunately, every scout with a radar gun is saying the same thing: His fastball is MIA, topping 88 at best, and this spring, mid-80s. One scout said it was the same at the end of last season, even though the his final months were his statistical best.

 

As of this printing, the Phillies expect to place Garcia on the shelf for a few days with tenderness in his right bicep, making it likely he'll miss his first regular-season turn.

 

At 31, few pitchers have been taxed as heavily as Garcia this century. He's consistently over 200+ innings a season, including three postseasons and a World Baseball Classic. Decline is probable.

 

The bottom line is that GMs, particularly ones who don’t collect paychecks signed by Phillies president David Montgomery, don't give up aces for pitchers like Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez unless there's a reason.

 

Then again, sometimes GMs do give up quality pitchers for very little. The Phillies went down that road last year with Vicente Padilla. Garcia carries a different brand of baggage than Padilla, however, a $10 million deal that expires after the season. That baggage didn't stop him from anchoring the Rangers' rotation, just as Garcia is expected to do for the Phils.

 

Look at that. They're actually surprised to have received Garcia for only Gonzalez/Floyd. As if to suggest Williams only could have asked for those two because he knew Garcia wasn't healthy. Which is probably true, but doesn't necessarily imply that other general managers were aware. Professional baseball organizations aren't always run by savvy, intelligent baseball minds. Not requesting a physical for someone with an 88mph fastball should suggest as much.

 

I've come to a point where I'm entirely convinced the following events occurred leading up to the Garcia deal:

 

1. Williams realizes Garcia's velocity decline wasn't the result of the World Baseball Classic, or October baseball, and understands it may never return to previous levels. He'll need to leave.

 

2. An instruction is sent out for scouts to monitor Philadelphia's farm system

 

3. White Sox scouts (in addition to Williams own observations) identify Gonzalez and Floyd.

 

4. During Winter League discussions, Williams offers Garcia to various clubs but no one is willing to accept him for an appropriate price.

 

5. Near the end of the Winter Meetings; fearing Garcia's stock may fall further -- or teams seeking pitching may seek alternative options -- Williams inquires about the availability of Gonzalez and Floyd. He's probably afraid of asking for a maximum return in the event Gilleck rejects the proposal, and yet another option is off the table. So, he settles for less to guarantee a trade.

 

6. Gilleck and his executives are shocked by the low request and immediately accept the offer. Initial thoughts within the organization are the move may be a salary dump.

 

People can still hold their heads in the sand, dismiss the article as biased; whatever. We could and should have received more for Garcia. I don't care if his arm falls off tomorrow and he never pitches again. When fans of Philadelphia themselves realize Garcia was exchanged for so little, then you begin to wonder.

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QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Apr 1, 2007 -> 03:55 AM)
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...phia-phillies2/

Look at that. They're actually surprised to have received Garcia for only Gonzalez/Floyd. As if to suggest Williams only could have asked for those two because he knew Garcia wasn't healthy. Which is probably true, but doesn't necessarily imply that other general managers were aware. Professional baseball organizations aren't always run by savvy, intelligent baseball minds. Not requesting a physical for someone with an 88mph fastball should suggest as much.

 

I've come to a point where I'm entirely convinced the following events occurred leading up to the Garcia deal:

 

1. Williams realizes Garcia's velocity decline wasn't the result of the World Baseball Classic, or October baseball, and understands it may never return to previous levels. He'll need to leave.

 

2. An instruction is sent out for scouts to monitor Philadelphia's farm system

 

3. White Sox scouts (in addition to Williams own observations) identify Gonzalez and Floyd.

 

4. During Winter League discussions, Williams offers Garcia to various clubs but no one is willing to accept him for an appropriate price.

 

5. Near the end of the Winter Meetings; fearing Garcia's stock may fall further -- or teams seeking pitching may seek alternative options -- Williams inquires about the availability of Gonzalez and Floyd. He's probably afraid of asking for a maximum return in the event Gilleck rejects the proposal, and yet another option is off the table. So, he settles for less to guarantee a trade.

 

6. Gilleck and his executives are shocked by the low request and immediately accept the offer. Initial thoughts within the organization are the move may be a salary dump.

 

People can still hold their heads in the sand, dismiss the article as biased; whatever. We could and should have received more for Garcia. I don't care if his arm falls off tomorrow and he never pitches again. When fans of Philadelphia themselves realize Garcia was exchanged for so little, then you begin to wonder.

 

I think what you outlined is fairly realistic and I think that it demonstrates a fair amount of savvy on the part of Williams. Dumping Garcia was part salary dump and part opening a starter spot (since poor performance was anticipated). Getting Gonzalez back was basically a bonus.

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QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Apr 6, 2007 -> 11:24 PM)
"Garcia sharp in rehab start for Threshers

Phillies pitcher strikes out seven in three scoreless innings"

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/ar...b&fext=.jsp

 

No radar readings?

 

Florida State League hitters were probably expecting the fastball and weren't prepared for the offspeed stuff, just like the Angels last year, when he almost no-hit them. We're so used to thinking of Garcia and "ace" together (along with the 93-96 MPH fastball we remember from the 1999-2002 period) that it's hard to get used to the newer version.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Garcia's line from tonight -- 4.2IP, 7H, 4ER, 2BB, 8SO, 2HR, 5.65ERA.

 

His numbers this season have hardly been stellar, but I'm still wondering how the package we aquired has helped this team in the short run. Williams did mention the trade was made to benefit the present and future, yet, I'm not seeing anything on the roster to indicate as much.

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QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Apr 27, 2007 -> 11:23 PM)
Garcia's line from tonight -- 4.2IP, 7H, 4ER, 2BB, 8SO, 2HR, 5.65ERA.

 

His numbers this season have hardly been stellar, but I'm still wondering how the package we aquired has helped this team in the short run. Williams did mention the trade was made to benefit the present and future, yet, I'm not seeing anything on the roster to indicate as much.

 

I wasn't very optimistic about the acquisition of Floyd either, but I won't lay into Williams for talking up the deal he got. That's part of his job.

 

With the caveat that it's too soon to judge a trade a month into the season, I don't think this was a disastrous move. 1 year of Garcia at 10M (+ a draft pick) versus Floyd and Gonzalez. Right now it seems like a weak but not terrible return. The question is, could Williams have gotten Taveras and Hirsh (or maybe just Hirsh) for Garcia or Garland instead? If you think the answer is yes, this deal looks quite a bit worse.

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QUOTE(hitlesswonder @ Apr 28, 2007 -> 12:39 AM)
The question is, could Williams have gotten Taveras and Hirsh (or maybe just Hirsh) for Garcia or Garland instead? If you think the answer is yes, this deal looks quite a bit worse.

Why would you want to trade Garland?

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QUOTE(hitlesswonder @ Apr 28, 2007 -> 05:39 AM)
With the caveat that it's too soon to judge a trade a month into the season, I don't think this was a disastrous move. 1 year of Garcia at 10M (+ a draft pick) versus Floyd and Gonzalez. Right now it seems like a weak but not terrible return. The question is, could Williams have gotten Taveras and Hirsh (or maybe just Hirsh) for Garcia or Garland instead? If you think the answer is yes, this deal looks quite a bit worse.

 

One question is, do you really think Hirsh plus Tavares (who I see as nothing more than a fourth OFer on a good team) is better than Floyd and Gonzalez? I think you can make an argument either way, but from a pitching standpoint, I like Floyd + Gio better. You can argue all day whether the package should have been better, but honestly, I'm not too pissed at this point. Gio starting the season the way he has is putting him back on the map as one of the better left-hand prospects in all of baseball.

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QUOTE(danman31 @ Apr 28, 2007 -> 01:05 AM)
Why would you want to trade Garland?

Garland was the pitcher the Astros were interested in IIRC. If the Sox hadn't traded Garcia, they could have moved Garland instead. I think Garland is a decent pitcher (although his lack of velocity this year is troubling), but Hirsh looks like he might be very good....

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QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Apr 28, 2007 -> 01:09 AM)
One question is, do you really think Hirsh plus Tavares (who I see as nothing more than a fourth OFer on a good team) is better than Floyd and Gonzalez? I think you can make an argument either way, but from a pitching standpoint, I like Floyd + Gio better. You can argue all day whether the package should have been better, but honestly, I'm not too pissed at this point. Gio starting the season the way he has is putting him back on the map as one of the better left-hand prospects in all of baseball.

 

It's true that Tavares isn't that special, he's sort of like Pods but with the glove to play CF. But that wouldn't have been bad, as the Sox could then have ditched Pods and brought in someone that could hit to play LF. It's pure conjecture at this point, but I think Hirsh will be better than Gio or Floyd. He racked up great numbers in the PCL and is doing well with the Rox now.

 

Gio is off to a good start, but it's possible the park in BHAM is hiding the gopherballitis he had in Reading last season. If Gio moves up to Charlotte and proves he can pitch in that bandbox, I'll start thinking he might do something in the big leagues. I hope the Sox move him up soon. At this point, there's no sense wasting any of pitches in his arm at AA.

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