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Would you make this trade with the Phillies ?


WHITESOXRANDY

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Firstly, let me state that this is a trade that I concocted. I'm not saying that it's a rumor.

 

The deal I'm thinking of is this:

 

to the Sox: Jon Leiber, Aaron Rowand and Carlos Carrasco

 

to the Phils: Rob Mackowiak and EITHER Matt Thornton or Mike MacDougal

 

To AAA Charlotte would go Brian Anderson, nd John Danks

 

Bullpen candidates would be Haeger, Masset, Logan, Sisco, Jenks, Floyd and Aardsma

 

to go with either Thornton or Mac. Two of them would go to Charlotte.

 

I think that for this year, the Sox would be helped tremendously by having a fairly solid 5th starter that is ML ready and not have to worry about rushing a kid or playing musical chairs with the spot. If a kid proves to be ready by July....well the Sox could move Leiber or Buehrle.

 

The Sox get the RH bat and CFer in Rowand AND they DOUBLE the grinder effect ! Woo Hoo !

 

Also, with a really good RHP prospect the future would look even brighter. I think the Sox could afford to lose either Thornton or MAC if they are getting a 5th starter (Leiber).

 

What do you think ? Would this be too much for the Phils to give up ? They are desperate for a quality set-up man that could possibly close in the event that Gordon goes down. Also, They could use a backup plan for 3b with Wes Helms currently there as well as a backup in the outfield and lefty bat.

 

This is the year Philly is going for it and they have a good chance to win the division. Would this deal work for both teams ?

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So, I wouldn't make the trade from the Sox perspective because Jenks looks not good. If his arm is falling off, the Sox need MacDougal and Thornton. The rest of the bullpen is unproven (to be polite), the Sox don't have the depth right now to make the trade. I also don't think Rowand really improves the Sox that much.

 

Second, Philadelphia wouldn't make that trade either. They wanted Linebrink for Rowand and Alex Rios for Lieber (plus they may want to hold Lieber till Garcia's health is more assured). Mack and MacDougal alone for Lieber and Rowand and CC just doesn't come close to getting it done from PHI's point of view in my opinion. Prior to Garcia getting hurt, a Phillies blog (Good Phight) speculated that a Lieber/Rowand for Fields/MacDougal/Mack trade might be a possibility. From a value for value standpint, that seems more realistic, but right now neither Lieber or MacDougal will be going anywhere I think.

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No way. Is Rowand really an upgrade over Anderson or Erstad? I don't think so. It took Rowand awhile to get going in the majors and we've only given Anderson 1 year and Erstad (if he can stay healthy) is just plain better than Rowand. I don't know what we would do with Lieber...our 5th starter candidates look better than any of our 1st 4 starters in spring...granted its spring but that is all we have to go by right now and Lieber is not beating out any of those guys.

 

But saving the most important reason for last...MMac and Thorton have to be untouchables right now, especially given Jenks' struggles. I know its spring but we face Cleveland and Minny in the first two series and the bullpen is going to be key. We have two good lefty pen guys (thornton and logan) and they are hard to come by so teams must pay a premium for them and established closer type guys like MMac so don't settle for the guys that a team wants to unload.

 

KW ain't bitin' on any of these weak trades.

 

QUOTE(hitlesswonder @ Mar 23, 2007 -> 11:36 AM)
Prior to Garcia getting hurt, a Phillies blog (Good Phight) speculated that a Lieber/Rowand for Fields/MacDougal/Mack trade might be a possibility. From a value for value standpint, that seems more realistic, but right now neither Lieber or MacDougal will be going anywhere I think.

 

Fields/ MacDougal/ and Mack for Rowand and Lieber??? I think that is ridiculously favoring Philly.

 

Rowand/ 1 year of Garcia/ Haigwood for Thome and Floyd is basically what we did with Philly over the past two years so why would we give up so much for Rowand and Lieber

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Yeah, I'm not disagreeing with any of these comments. If the Sox deem keeping both Thornton and Mac necessary due to concerns about Jenks and them not confident about any of the young guys being that ready tobe counted on in a set-up role then....that settles that.

 

Unless Philly would be willing to take a lesser bullpen arm for Leiber . I would love to see the Sox pick him up for the rotation. Apparently, they were never offered that much for him and that's why he's still there. Garcia is going to be fine - he'll make his 30 starts.

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While that Carrasco guy put up some really, really impressive numbers in A ball last season...I still think that trading for a 5th starter and a CF is fixing the wrong problems.

 

We have right now 2 guys who can play at the very worst a mediocre CF.

 

We have right now 3 gusy who can at worst give us a mediocre 5th starter, hopefully putting up an ERA better than 6 and winning some games.

 

Aaron Rowand is simply not that much better than either of the guys we have right now, and depending on Anderson's new swing, is possibly quite a bit worse than the guys we have now.

 

And Jon Lieber put up an ERA of nearly 5 in the NL last year. On average, most pitchers moving from the NL to the AL add about .95 runs to their ERA from season to season (with some variability between them). Unless Lieber has some new trick that the AL hitters haven't seen, he'll be costing one of our rookies time in the big leagues, costing us more money, and weakening our bullpen all so that we can put a guy with an ERA of 6 in the rotation.

 

Basically, the only part of this deal I'd think wasn't hurting the Sox would be getting that Carrasco guy. I might do Logan for him alone, but to add in Mackowiak, to raise from Logan to MMac or Thor, and to take on the spare parts the Phillies don't need is just a horrendous idea.

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Talk about an absolutely terrible trade. Ship off the best reliever the Sox have along with their best bench player (and probably a pretty decent prospect as well) for a 38 year old bad $7.5M starting pitcher who as of Wednesday was going to be in the Phillies bullpen because he's not even competent enough to push Adam Eaton for a spot in the rotation and we'd add another 4th OF to the fray except this one makes over $4M a year.

 

If you add Rowand and Lieber while subtracting Mack and Mac that adds over $9M to the payroll with no significant upgrade. That would put the season payroll at over $110M for the start of the season. Someone else would have to go.

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QUOTE(Jenks Heat @ Mar 23, 2007 -> 12:35 PM)
What do you think Boston would give right now for McDougal.....

 

This would be like asking for Coco Crisp (is he with Boston) and Matt Clement (is he still inbaseball).

 

The Phillies need pen help in the worst way.

That's actually a pretty decent comparison, Clement makes $9.5M a year ($2M more than lieber), is younger and just as useless, Crisp on the other hand is a much better fit for the Sox than Rowand since the presence of Crisp would make Podsednik expendable (not that he isn't already). With that said, it would never happen for many reasons mainly because KW wouldn't do it.

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QUOTE(Vance Law @ Mar 23, 2007 -> 11:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Would you have preferred Garcia for Gio and Floyd, or Garcia for Gio and Lieber?

 

 

For this year, I'd rather have Leiber. Leiber is still a decent pitcher that knows how to win. I'm not happy with any of the Sox alternatives for the 5th spot now and I think that it's gonna kill their playoff chances.

 

Danks looks real good but I think he's being rushed if he's the 5th starter. Floyd just flat out isn't good enough and, no, he isn't nearly as good as Leiber right now. Haeger ? Who knows ? I like him but don't think he's really ready either but I might take the chance on him of the 3 right now.

 

That's my point of view - low opinion of Floyd and I would feel much more comfortable in trying to win this division in 2007 with a decent proven major league starting pitcher in the 5 hole.

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QUOTE(WHITESOXRANDY @ Mar 23, 2007 -> 12:54 PM)
For this year, I'd rather have Leiber. Leiber is still a decent pitcher that knows how to win. I'm not happy with any of the Sox alternatives for the 5th spot now and I think that it's gonna kill their playoff chances.

 

Danks looks real good but I think he's being rushed if he's the 5th starter. Floyd just flat out isn't good enough and, no, he isn't nearly as good as Leiber right now. Haeger ? Who knows ? I like him but don't think he's really ready either but I might take the chance on him of the 3 right now.

 

That's my point of view - low opinion of Floyd and I would feel much more comfortable in trying to win this division in 2007 with a decent proven major league starting pitcher in the 5 hole.

Jon Lieber is 37 years old, makes $7.5M this season, has major injury concerns (hurt all of last year), has been on the decline ever since arriving in Philadelphia and was especially terrible last season. At some point "proven major league starter" gets canceled out by "old, expensive and bad". I would rather have signed Mark Redman as a non-roster invitee and have him compete with the 2 youngsters than bring in an old, expensive, broken down starter and hand him the job. For a pitcher who knows how to win that 9-11 record from last season is less than impressive. Hell even Gavin Floyd had a winning record in his 11 s***ty starts with Philly last season.

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