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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 11:47 AM)
I really think you are on to something. If you add the aquisition of tons of young pitching, combined with the Sox not talking to their potential FAs, and the KW trademark of trying to make the big splash, along with Kenny trying to get Alex on at least two different occasions, I think there is fire here. It just makes too much sense.

 

Oh hell yeah I'd get out the checkbook for Ichiro, NO PROBLEM. THAT idea I love.

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QUOTE(Vance Law @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 10:35 AM)
Which would cost more? Which would produce more on the field?

 

ARod

Fields

Sweeney

 

or

 

Crede

Uribe

Dye

 

As much as I hate to say it, I'd rather KW let a 34-year-old Dye walk at the end of the season than over-pay to re-sign him. And KW has already said that the Sox aren't going to give Crede a long-term deal.

 

The Sox will obviously need a big bat in the lineup to replace those two, but I'm not sure that A-Rod is the answer. That said, I wouldn't exactly be upset if he were in our lineup (assuming we're not paying full-price for him).

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QUOTE(Vance Law @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 12:35 PM)
Which would cost more? Which would produce more on the field?

 

ARod

Fields

Sweeney

 

or

 

Crede

Uribe

Dye

$20M over 6 years

$380K

$380K

-------

$20.76M

 

$11M over 5 years

$5M over ? years

$12M over 3-4 years

-------

$28M

 

Predicting production over several years with this bunch is nearly impossible, way too many intangibles.

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 11:41 AM)
$20M over 6 years

$380K

$380K

-------

$20.76M

 

$11M over 5 years

$5M over ? years

$12M over 3-4 years

-------

$28M

 

Predicting production over several years with this bunch is nearly impossible, way too many intangibles.

 

Do people REALLY think that Sweeney can hit more than 10-15 hrs in 2008 playing everyday? I haven't seen that kind of power stroke from him and I am not sure if he's going to develop it as he matures... I like what I've seen from Fields but it looks like 2008 will be a rebuilding year if we did this...we'd really have to play bigtime small ball to win games...

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 12:41 PM)
$20M over 6 years

$380K

$380K

-------

$20.76M

 

$11M over 5 years

$5M over ? years

$12M over 3-4 years

-------

$28M

 

Predicting production over several years with this bunch is nearly impossible, way too many intangibles.

Rodriguez will get way more than $20 million a year, or he won't opt out of his deal. The thing with Borass is his guys for the highest per year average to set the curve for his other players. He has got to be near $30 million or he isn't going anywhere.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 10:59 AM)
Rodriguez will get way more than $20 million a year, or he won't opt out of his deal. The thing with Borass is his guys for the highest per year average to set the curve for his other players. He has got to be near $30 million or he isn't going anywhere.

 

Not that I disagree, but didn't A-Rod agree to lower his own salary a few years ago to go to Boston? And wasn't the Player's Union the one who wouldn't allow it? If he's as desperate to get out of NY as it seems, I don't necessarily think that $30 million/year is what he'll ask for.

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 12:59 PM)
Rodriguez will get way more than $20 million a year, or he won't opt out of his deal. The thing with Borass is his guys for the highest per year average to set the curve for his other players. He has got to be near $30 million or he isn't going anywhere.

A-Rod has $108M over 4 years remaining on his deal, if he could opt out now and get about $130M over 6 years (with a $10M signing bonus and possible option year) he's going to take that deal. The days of position players receiving deals of $21M+ are over for at least the immediate future, I could see him getting $20M per tops and with Boras he'd probably get it. If A-Rod can get out of New York and guarantee himself $30M and 2 years more than what he's got now, I don't see why he wouldn't do it.

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 02:04 PM)
A-Rod has $108M over 4 years remaining on his deal, if he could opt out now and get about $130M over 6 years (with a $10M signing bonus and possible option year) he's going to take that deal. The days of position players receiving deals of $21M+ are over for at least the immediate future, I could see him getting $20M per tops and with Boras he'd probably get it. If A-Rod can get out of New York and guarantee himself $30M and 2 years more than what he's got now, I don't see why he wouldn't do it.

Moneywise, I don't see that happening. He would have to believe that 4 years down the line he won't be able to get a salary of $11 mil per year. Even an aging, slower ARod should do better than that (especially with the overall salary inflation that'll happen over 4 years). The best bet of ARod opting out is if he's just sick of the questioning he gets in NY.

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QUOTE(jackie hayes @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 01:15 PM)
Moneywise, I don't see that happening. He would have to believe that 4 years down the line he won't be able to get a salary of $11 mil per year. Even an aging, slower ARod should do better than that (especially with the overall salary inflation that'll happen over 4 years). The best bet of ARod opting out is if he's just sick of the questioning he gets in NY.

Like I said, if ARod could rid himself of New York and add $30M guaranteed dollars and 2 years onto his deal I don't see why he wouldn't do it. This is the same guy who was ready to take a pay cut just to get out of Texas.

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QUOTE(Vance Law @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 11:35 AM)
Which would cost more? Which would produce more on the field?

 

ARod

Fields

Sweeney

 

or

 

Crede

Uribe

Dye

First off, I don't believe you're comparing the right set of players. If Rodriguez were to sign with the Sox, would you expect him to move over to SS considering he's been at third for several years now? Uribe wouldn't be going anywhere in my scenario.

 

IMO, Crede will be gone next season. Whether because of Fields or Rodriguez.

 

Another part of my scenario is resigning Iguchi and trading for Ryan Church. How I figure is even if Anderson does well in the majors (or AAA), we wouldn't have a leadoff hitter and Guillen demands one. So, bye bye Brian. If it means Rodriguez on this ballclub I could stand to lose him.

 

Church/Ozuna

Iguchi

Thome

Rodriguez

Konerko

Pierzynski

Uribe

Sweeney

Fields

 

Yeah, it probably won't happen exactly like this. But if it were, I wouldn't complain. Much. :P

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QUOTE(That funky motion @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 01:15 PM)
I thought A-Rod did not like Ozzie. I cant see him picking us based on that.

 

And people have never settled earlier beefs with each other.

 

He is going to go to the money, and if he has a problem with Ozzie, the two can talk it out. If Ozzie can't do that, it would probably be best if he were fired, because one's agenda should not come before the team winning ballgames.

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 01:21 PM)
Like I said, if ARod could rid himself of New York and add $30M guaranteed dollars and 2 years onto his deal I don't see why he wouldn't do it. This is the same guy who was ready to take a pay cut just to get out of Texas.

 

Even that puts his deal at closer to $140 million than $120 million (20 mil a year).

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QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 01:59 PM)
Even that puts his deal at closer to $140 million than $120 million (20 mil a year).

He's currently guaranteed $108M. If he gets 6 years $20M like I said that would put him at $120M + ~$10M signing bonus (similar to what BJ Ryan just got) and then perhaps a bit of guaranteed money on a 7th year buyout and we're looking at about $30M more in ARod's pocket.

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QUOTE(Flash Tizzle @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 11:44 AM)
I don't know, I've personally felt Rodriguez would rather remain in the American league to transition to DH in the latter years of any contract.

 

I honestly believe one of Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro Suzuki, or Alex Rodriguez will be a White Sox. And that doesn't mean in 10 years when they're on the tail ends of their careers, but within the immediate future.

 

Realistically, if we contend next year and have a payroll close to 100 million, good chance Dye and Buehrle leave. There's 16.5 million off the books. Add in Crede's 5 million if a deal is in the works. Podsednik's 3 million and Erstad's 1 million hopefully will be as well. That'd be approximately 25.5 million; an amount I'm sure would drop due to raises across the team.

 

Let's estimate around 20 million remains. Definitely enough for Ichiro, but still within the range of Rodriguez as well.

 

I believe any addition of the aforementioned names will allow one/two rookies an opportunity to play in the majors. It'll be interesting to observe how Sweeney and Fields fare in AAA this season. If Sweeney were to showcase more power, and Fields maintains some of the production from last season, it could be those two in LF/RF in 2008. Who knows about Anderson. I'm done trying to predict his future. I wish he would remain with us, but with Williams unpredictable nature and Guillen being Guillen he may be gone by next week.

 

This is a very good assessment of the White Sox current money situation. Kenny even admitted himself earlier either before ST or during that a lot of teams put themselves out of contention for next year's crop of FA because of the ridiculous deals they gave this past summer for inferior players. (I.E. the Cubs, Angels and Giants)

 

Some of the potential FA's for this upcoming offseason is pretty staggering:

 

NL:

Carlos Zambrano

Andruw Jones

John Smoltz

Doug Davis

Randy Wolf

Tom Glavine

Barry Bonds

Marcus Giles

Kaz Matsui

Pedro Feliz

Rod Barajas

Javy Lopez

Craig Wilson

 

AL:

Mariano Rivera

Ichiro Suzuki

Bobby Abreu

Curt Schilling

Carlos Guillen

Torii Hunter

Jermaine Dye

Andy Pettitte

Jake Westbrook

Shea Hillenbrand

Joe Borowski

Octavio Dotel

Jose Guillen

Mike Piazza

Jeff Weaver

Mike Lowell

Bartolo Colon

Scott Podsednik

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QUOTE(BFirebird @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 02:34 PM)
This is a very good assessment of the White Sox current money situation. Kenny even admitted himself earlier either before ST or during that a lot of teams put themselves out of contention for next year's crop of FA because of the ridiculous deals they gave this past summer for inferior players. (I.E. the Cubs, Angels and Giants)

 

Some of the potential FA's for this upcoming offseason is pretty staggering:

Oh I love these.

 

NL:

Carlos Zambrano (He'll probably end up re-signing with the Cubs but I'd love to have him. BIG $$$)

Andruw Jones (Boras)

John Smoltz (Too old)

Doug Davis (Signed an extension already)

Randy Wolf (Hurt, bad and probably has an option)

Tom Glavine (Old, on the cusp of retirement)

Barry Bonds (NO)

Marcus Giles (Has an option and loves playing with his brother but I've always been a fan)

Kaz Matsui (NO)

Pedro Feliz (meh)

Rod Barajas (Has an Option)

Javy Lopez (NO)

Craig Wilson (Meh, nice bat off the bench and backup 1B)

 

AL:

Mariano Rivera (Old and expensive)

Ichiro Suzuki (Awesome, would love to have him)

Bobby Abreu (Would be a real nice leadoff man but will make too much money and is getting up there in age plus he has an option)

Curt Schilling (NO)

Carlos Guillen (Pretty sub par defensively and isn't a huge offensive producer, not worth the cash)

Torii Hunter (Getting real old, real fast, is only an average offensive player and will make some good money)

Jermaine Dye (Me likey)

Andy Pettitte (Old, retirement)

Jake Westbrook (Meh, he'll probably stay in Cleveland)

Shea Hillenbrand (NO)

Joe Borowski (Ha)

Octavio Dotel (I think he has an option)

Jose Guillen (I'd be interested but he does have an option)

Mike Piazza (NO)

Jeff Weaver (No and he has an option)

Mike Lowell (NO)

Bartolo Colon (Fat, expensive and bad)

Scott Podsednik (HA!!!)

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 12:45 PM)
Ichiro Suzuki (Awesome, would love to have him)

 

I would've liked to have him five years ago. A huge chunk of Ichiro's value is his speed and I don't foresee him being able to steal 40-50 bases per season over even most of the duration of his contract. Methinks that we'd end up over-paying for him.

Edited by WCSox
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QUOTE(WCSox @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 02:56 PM)
I would've liked to have him five years ago. A huge chunk of Ichiro's value is his speed and I don't foresee him being able to steal 40-50 bases per season over even most of the duration of his contract. Methinks that we'd end up over-paying for him.

 

No, Ichiro's value comes from the fact that he's a career .331 hitter. His speed and defense are just added bonuses.

 

And if Kenny Lofton has taught me anything, it's that guys who know how to steal bases will always steal bases regardless of how old they become. Ichiro keeps himself in magnificent shape, and he has gotten ridiculously good at stealing. I imagine he will remain a 20-30 SB threat until the day he walks away from the game.

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QUOTE(WCSox @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 02:56 PM)
I would've liked to have him five years ago. A huge chunk of Ichiro's value is his speed and I don't foresee him being able to steal 40-50 bases per season over even most of the duration of his contract. Methinks that we'd end up over-paying for him.

Meh, he's only 33 years old and will probably pull in a 5 year deal. I'm not really all that worried about a 38 year old Ichiro, he's an insanely effective pure hitter (one of the greatest of all time) and will always have a ton of value because of his ability to make contact. I forsee Ichiro becoming more of a power hitter later in his career as well, he already has excellent power now that he doesn't really utilize so when/if he legs start to go he could start driving the ball. Plus I foresee him as being one of those guys that doesn't break down until after he leaves the game, sort of in the Ricky Henderson mold where he'll just never lose that athleticism.

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QUOTE(Kalapse @ Mar 26, 2007 -> 01:06 PM)
Meh, he's only 33 years old and will probably pull in a 5 year deal. I'm not really all that worried about a 38 year old Ichiro, he's an insanely effective pure hitter (one of the greatest of all time) and will always have a ton of value because of his ability to make contact. I forsee Ichiro becoming more of a power hitter later in his career as well, he already has excellent power now that he doesn't really utilize so when/if he legs start to go he could start driving the ball. Plus I foresee him as being one of those guys that doesn't break down until after he leaves the game, sort of in the Ricky Henderson mold where he'll just never lose that athleticism.

 

I'm not sure about him never losing that athleticism, but I completely agree about him having value as a contact hitter until the day that he retires. He's Japan's answer to Tony Gwynn. My concern is that the stats that he put up in his prime and his celebrity status in Japan will drive up his asking price to an unreasonable level.

 

I'm surprised that Ichiro hasn't played more CF in Seattle. Of course, I realize that his cannon arm makes him a very good fit for RF, but his freakish speed and very solid anticipation on fly balls would be better-used in CF, IMO. Mike Cameron was a good defensive CF, but is Jeremy Reed really a better option? Or has Seattle just been lacking a strong-armed option in RF in the post-Buhner era?

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