Interesting News

[Capn12]

I'm just sold on the fact that Erstad in LF, BA in CF is our best OF option. Now, and before anyone even says it, yes I know that gives us zero options at leadoff, I'm just saying thats my best OF.

[beck72]

I'm just sold on the fact that Erstad in LF, BA in CF is our best OF option. Now, and before anyone even says it, yes I know that gives us zero options at leadoff, I'm just saying thats my best OF.

that's what it may come down to if Pods can't better his .220 2nd half avg, with Erstad in the leadoff spot. I'm not totally convinced Erstad can play CF on a regular basis myself. Yet to start the year, it makes the most sense. The sox have given the vets the benefit of the doubt until they prove they can't hack it. Then it's up to BA to keep working until the chance opens up.

[DBAHO]

Erstad's biggest issues have been injuries. If he's healthy--and moving around AZ in LF and CF, getting in his 70 ab's--the most on the team, it seems he is--Erstad must have proven to the sox he's ready to start opening day.

 

All the opening day lineup is is a start. Nothing is set in stone. Changes can be made if things come up. The sox still have Iguchi for the #2 hole. And Anderson for CF everyday. Yet IMO, having Erstad for LF instead of Ozuna, and Anderson for CF instead of Mackowiak are much better long term options in case of injuries to either Pods or Erstad.

To me, Erstad's getting those AB's to try and justify him getting that starting spot when he doesn't deserve it. Hell isn't BA even outproducing him in spring training so far stats wise?

 

And sure injuries have been a big problem for Erstad. But he's only posted a +.700 OPS season twice since 2000. Compare that to Iguchi in the #2 hole who's had OPS's of .780 and .774.

 

What if moving Gooch down the order doesn't work and he struggles? Do you move him back up to the #2 spot, and what does that mean for Erstad?

 

Best case scenario for Erstad IMHO he puts up something close to his 2004 numbers, .295/.346/.400. I just don't think there's a great chance of that happening.

[beck72]

To me, Erstad's getting those AB's to try and justify him getting that starting spot when he doesn't deserve it. Hell isn't BA even outproducing him in spring training so far stats wise?

 

And sure injuries have been a big problem for Erstad. But he's only posted a +.700 OPS season twice since 2000. Compare that to Iguchi in the #2 hole who's had OPS's of .780 and .774.

 

What if moving Gooch down the order doesn't work and he struggles? Do you move him back up to the #2 spot, and what does that mean for Erstad?

 

Best case scenario for Erstad IMHO he puts up something close to his 2004 numbers, .295/.346/.400. I just don't think there's a great chance of that happening.

Two things:

1] The sox must think Erstad is doing well enough for Cf and the #2 spot to justify him starting. It's not like the sox are paying him $10 mill a yr and have to get him in the lineup.

 

2] Iguchi can always be moved back to the #2 hole. If Erstad gets hurt or sucks, so be it. At least he was given the chance to play everyday. Few other teams were going to give him a shot. And he's being paid Ben Davis money. He can always be moved to the Ross Gload role for 1b and pnich hitting.

 

Erstad will have to hit and play a decent OF--which he is doing now. If he doesn't keep it up, the sox have options to replace him. Yet the possibility that Erstad may hit near his 2004 numbers is too good to pass up.

[NorthSideSox72]

Well I was one of the few who held out hope that BA would make the team and start in CF. I guess I got half my wish. I'm pretty pissed at Ozzie - not for making BA work for a position - but for apparently not intending to give BA a real shot to start. I'm happy he's on the roster though, and as people said, he may be starting sooner rather than later. It looks like Ozzie was surprised that BA actually showed up with the right attitude this spring and some positive changes, so he feels he needs to do something about that, and changed him to this utility role. Not as ideal as him starting, but better than him at AAA, as long as he actually gets to play a few days a week.

 

Please Ozzie, don't do with him what you did with Gload the first half last year and not give him any playing time.

 

What if moving Gooch down the order doesn't work and he struggles? Do you move him back up to the #2 spot, and what does that mean for Erstad?

 

I wouldn't worry too much about Gooch down in the order - he's batted 2nd in 3 of the last 4 games he played. I think Ozzie may have either given up on that, or decided to only do it occasionally.

[Milkman delivers]

"I've definitely brought this upon myself, so I deserve to have to do what I'm doing," Anderson said. "I shouldn't have had anything handed to me."

 

I give credit for Brian understanding what is going on. When a guy has two veterans ahead of him--[and most importantly for the Sox, two top of the order guys; if the sox only needed a number 8 hitter, Brian would be fine in CF]--and is coming off a horrible year when he was given a lot of time to develop--more than most teams who expect to make the playoffs--he's got to battle day in and day out. One good spring by a 25 yr old 2nd yr player isn't going to outdo years of proven production by two veterans. The right call is having Pods and Erstad as starters to start the year. Anderson will be given the next shot WHEN one of the two get hurt or suck.

 

I remember reading a few days ago quotes from Ozzie saying he thought BA would be a superstar in this league. That kind of talk goes against the prevailing thought that Ozzie has it "out" for Anderson.

 

And to refer to both Pods and Erstad as proven veterans is stretching, I'd say. At most, they've both just proven that they're not very good.

[Texsox]

I think of the three, BAs upside is higher, but his basement is lower, and he's proven that. This is a safe pick eary versus a gamble on ehich player will show up. The best place for him to play his way into the starting lineup may not be on the 25, but we will see. A lot will depend, as noted earlier, on how often he gets penned into the lineup and if he'll get to take an AB or two. Ninth inning Def sub may not help in that regards.

[caulfield12]

I think of the three, BAs upside is higher, but his basement is lower, and he's proven that. This is a safe pick eary versus a gamble on ehich player will show up. The best place for him to play his way into the starting lineup may not be on the 25, but we will see. A lot will depend, as noted earlier, on how often he gets penned into the lineup and if he'll get to take an AB or two. Ninth inning Def sub may not help in that regards.

 

As far as radar readings, who's been down, with the exception of Jenks, who has been topping out at 93/94 so far?

 

Garland, despite his supposed "injury" problem, has been right around 88-91, which is just a little lower than normal. He's never been a power pitcher anyway.

 

I know they've been impressed with Masset and Sisco most of the time...is Aardsma struggling too with velocity?

 

Russell has definitely been a pleasant surprise on the "plus" side with his fastball and new arm angles elevating him perhaps to just below Danks/Gio/Floyd and ahead of the Broadway/Haeger/Phillips/McCullogh starting groups in terms of potential.

 

EDIT: What are the odds we lose Terrero to another team? 50%? Obviously KW isn't too concerned with losing him, or he would have sent BA down instead.

Edited March 27, 2007 by caulfield12

[fathom]

I think of the three, BAs upside is higher, but his basement is lower, and he's proven that. This is a safe pick eary versus a gamble on ehich player will show up. The best place for him to play his way into the starting lineup may not be on the 25, but we will see. A lot will depend, as noted earlier, on how often he gets penned into the lineup and if he'll get to take an AB or two. Ninth inning Def sub may not help in that regards.

 

As Pods proved during the 2nd half last year, his basement is about as low as it gets in the majors. At least you always have a dependable defensive player if Anderson is in the game.

[caulfield12]

As Pods proved during the 2nd half last year, his basement is about as low as it gets in the majors. At least you always have a dependable defensive player if Anderson is in the game.

 

Of course, the odds are pretty high that Pods or Erstad will get injured sometime this year.

 

Supposedly, Ozuna had a great defensive play in CF in one of the minor league games, but Pablo still gives me nightmares of Hall at 1B, Dye at SS or Brian Daubach or Ross Gload in CF.

[beck72]

And to refer to both Pods and Erstad as proven veterans is stretching, I'd say. At most, they've both just proven that they're not very good.

Look at their major league stats, and how many AB's they've had in the bigs. They've had struggles. But they have proven they can have success in the bigs.

[NorthSideSox72]

EDIT: What are the odds we lose Terrero to another team? 50%? Obviously KW isn't too concerned with losing him, or he would have sent BA down instead.

I don't think Terrero is in the plans anymore, so if the Sox could get something for him, they probably would.

 

Welcome to the board, by the way.

[caulfield12]

Look at their major league stats, and how many AB's they've had in the bigs. They've had struggles. But they have proven they can have success in the bigs.

 

Erstad not a proven veteran? He's proven that he's had problems staying healthy, but he has been a productive player (not just 2000) when he was able to play at 100%. If nothing else, he's a Gold Glover at two positions and a very solid player fundamentally who is ideally suited for the 2 hole.

 

Pods in 2006 form doesn't help the ballclub enough to offset his tentativeness in stealing and defense and lack of power. But we're not ready to run Sweeney or Fields out there everyday either. And a Mack/Ozuna platoon doesn't excite me much either, that's just a stopgap measure.

 

I don't think Terrero is in the plans anymore, so if the Sox could get something for him, they probably would.

 

Welcome to the board, by the way.

 

Terrero was one of those low risk-high reward moves like Escobar (who got us Owens) that we had nothing to lose on, and his presence also might have helped to motivate BA, if he needed it.

 

Well, one thing NOT to worry about is KW bringing back Olivo!

 

It will be interesting to see what move he can brew up to replace Molina or Wiki, I'm not sure how comfortable he will be with AJ hitting against the division's lefties and wearing down in the 2nd half. AJ is one year older, and he's too valuable offensively to overplay.

[hitlesswonder]

Erstad not a proven veteran? He's proven that he's had problems staying healthy, but he has been a productive player (not just 2000) when he was able to play at 100%. If nothing else, he's a Gold Glover at two positions and a very solid player fundamentally who is ideally suited for the 2 hole.

 

Erstad has proven he's not a good hitter. His OBP/OPS in recent years have been:

2001 .331 .691

2002 .313 .702

2003 .309 .642

2004 .346 .746

2005 .325 .696

2006 .279 .605

 

That's not good. Why is he an ideal #2 hitter? I would consider OBP the most important factor for a #2 hitter, and Erstad is not good at getting on-base. I really would rather have Iguchi hitting at #2. And please don't take all this as me suggesting Anderson is good -- he's not. But Erstad isn't either.

[caulfield12]

Erstad has proven he's not a good hitter. His OBP/OPS in recent years have been:

2001 .331 .691

2002 .313 .702

2003 .309 .642

2004 .346 .746

2005 .325 .696

2006 .279 .605

 

That's not good. Why is he an ideal #2 hitter? I would consider OBP the most important factor for a #2 hitter, and Erstad is not good at getting on-base. I really would rather have Iguchi hitting at #2. And please don't take all this as me suggesting Anderson is good -- he's not. But Erstad isn't either.

 

He's not worth $10 million per season at this point, but we're getting him for a bargain price. And his statistics (even if you leave out 2000 and "average" 2001-2005) are pretty similar to what Iguchi does, albeit less power and more stolen bases.

 

I'm sure we would love for BA to play 145 games and put up Iguchi-esque numbers, right?

 

He's the ideal number two hitter because he's going to play the game the way it's supposed to be played and do the little things that don't show up in the box score. His leadership will rub off on the rest of the line-up, and his level of play will be elevated by being healthy, playing CF again and playing in the best division in baseball. It's a challenge to any athlete, and I think he will respond favorably.

 

Still, it really doesn't matter what BA or DE do if Jenks, Buehrle and Contreras all fail to pitch like they are capable of pitching.

[hitlesswonder]

He's not worth $10 million per season at this point, but we're getting him for a bargain price. And his statistics (even if you leave out 2000 and "average" 2001-2005) are pretty similar to what Iguchi does, albeit less power and more stolen bases.

 

Erstad's stats from 2001 are clustered much closer together than his 2000 .900 OPS year. I think it's safe to ignore a career year from 7 years ago in predicting his performance for 2007.

 

Erstad from 2001 through 2006 hit .270 with a .323 OBP and .693 OPS, with about 13 SBs a season. Iguchi so far in the AL has hit .280 with a .347 OBP and .780 OPS with 13 SBs a season. One hundred points of OPS is a big difference, and Iguchi will have a higher OBP this year than Erstad IMO. I think having Erstad hit #2 is bad decision.

[caulfield12]

Erstad's stats from 2001 are clustered much closer together than his 2000 .900 OPS year. I think it's safe to ignore a career year from 7 years ago in predicting his performance for 2007.

 

Erstad from 2001 through 2006 hit .270 with a .323 OBP and .693 OPS, with about 13 SBs a season. Iguchi so far in the AL has hit .280 with a .347 OBP and .780 OPS with 13 SBs a season. One hundred points of OPS is a big difference, and Iguchi will have a higher OBP this year than Erstad IMO. I think having Erstad hit #2 is bad decision.

 

If you take those numbers from 01-05 and "extrapolate" them (because he had under 500 at-bats in one or two of those years), I think what we would expect in SB's comes closer to 18, around 8 homers, pretty similar RBI numbers to what Iguchi has put up. As DJ said, he's not afraid to drive in a run.

Edited March 27, 2007 by caulfield12

[Kalapse]

Well I was one of the few who held out hope that BA would make the team and start in CF. I guess I got half my wish. I'm pretty pissed at Ozzie - not for making BA work for a position - but for apparently not intending to give BA a real shot to start. I'm happy he's on the roster though, and as people said, he may be starting sooner rather than later. It looks like Ozzie was surprised that BA actually showed up with the right attitude this spring and some positive changes, so he feels he needs to do something about that, and changed him to this utility role. Not as ideal as him starting, but better than him at AAA, as long as he actually gets to play a few days a week.

Yeah basically. I think Ozzie got stuck in a situation much like Bud Selig, he got his guy this offseason and was all set to go into 2007 with the new guy by his side leaving the other guy behind to rot in AAA but he knew he had to make it look like he was at least giving the other guy a chance to be his starting CF this year or he would look pretty bad. So in order to save face he offered up an ultimatum to Brian, one that Ozzie was convinced he could not live up to. And much to the chagrin of Ozzie Brian actually stepped up and did everything asked of him but Ozzie, not wanting to give Brian a starting job went back on his word and rejected his efforts, making them out to be insufficient. Perhaps Brian could take him to court.

[soxfan3530]

UGHHH!!!! Opening day couldn't come sooner!!!

[whitesoxfan101]

Of course, the odds are pretty high that Pods or Erstad will get injured sometime this year.

 

Which is exactly why it's a HUGE deal Anderson made the team. He'll get his chance again in the OF, because there is ZERO way in hell those 2 guys stay healthy.

[Balta1701]

If you take those numbers from 01-05 and "extrapolate" them (because he had under 500 at-bats in one or two of those years), I think what we would expect in SB's comes closer to 18, around 8 homers, pretty similar RBI numbers to what Iguchi has put up. As DJ said, he's not afraid to drive in a run.

Actually, I think that in equal number of at bats, Erstad would have about 10% lower RBI than Iguchi, assuming injuries haven't cost Erstad anything. Just from comparing Erstad's best 4 years since 2000, not the injury-shortened seasons, and Iguchi's last 2 years, Erstad has generated 10% fewer RBI than Iguchi overall. The reason Erstad's numbers are almost to where Iguchi's are is that Erstad's seasons have been 650-700 plate appearance seasons while Iguchi's have been 550-600 plate appearance seasons.

 

I think for 500 plate appearances in a good season, assuming he hasn't lost anything and isn't nagged by injuries all year, Erstad might put up 50-55 RBI, 5-6 home runs, and about 10-12 steals. Of course, that's also assuming he has someone on base to actually drive in>

 

Which is exactly why it's a HUGE deal Anderson made the team. He'll get his chance again in the OF, because there is ZERO way in hell those 2 guys stay healthy.

Even beyond the health concerns...what do we expect the OF to look like when we see a Left Hander on the mound? It's going to be ozuna/Anderson/Dye almost certainly...so we finally do have a RH hitting OF out there.

 

Hopefully he gets the starting spot pretty quick and doesn't let go this time.

[Milkman delivers]

To me, Erstad's getting those AB's to try and justify him getting that starting spot when he doesn't deserve it. Hell isn't BA even outproducing him in spring training so far stats wise?

 

And sure injuries have been a big problem for Erstad. But he's only posted a +.700 OPS season twice since 2000. Compare that to Iguchi in the #2 hole who's had OPS's of .780 and .774.

 

What if moving Gooch down the order doesn't work and he struggles? Do you move him back up to the #2 spot, and what does that mean for Erstad?

 

Best case scenario for Erstad IMHO he puts up something close to his 2004 numbers, .295/.346/.400. I just don't think there's a great chance of that happening.

 

If Erstad put up those numbers, I would absolutely love to have him leading off.

[caulfield12]

Actually, I think that in equal number of at bats, Erstad would have about 10% lower RBI than Iguchi, assuming injuries haven't cost Erstad anything. Just from comparing Erstad's best 4 years since 2000, not the injury-shortened seasons, and Iguchi's last 2 years, Erstad has generated 10% fewer RBI than Iguchi overall. The reason Erstad's numbers are almost to where Iguchi's are is that Erstad's seasons have been 650-700 plate appearance seasons while Iguchi's have been 550-600 plate appearance seasons.

 

I think for 500 plate appearances in a good season, assuming he hasn't lost anything and isn't nagged by injuries all year, Erstad might put up 50-55 RBI, 5-6 home runs, and about 10-12 steals. Of course, that's also assuming he has someone on base to actually drive in>

Even beyond the health concerns...what do we expect the OF to look like when we see a Left Hander on the mound? It's going to be ozuna/Anderson/Dye almost certainly...so we finally do have a RH hitting OF out there.

 

Hopefully he gets the starting spot pretty quick and doesn't let go this time.

 

Not quite.

 

If you average 01-05 for Erstad...once again, not including 2000.

 

523 AB

143.4 H

.274 BA

7 HR

58 RBI

16.4 SB

[The Ginger Kid]

You just read whatever the f*** you want don't you?

 

seriously, I have no idea what the hell that means. Tell me how Ozzie lied to Brian.

[whitesoxfan101]

seriously, I have no idea what the hell that means. Tell me how Ozzie lied to Brian.

 

He said the best performer this spring would win the job in CF, Brian has been better than Erstad, yet Erstad is going to be the starter. Not too hard.