An optimistic viewpoint

[caulfield12]

The odds are very much against more than ONE AL Central team making it to the playoffs to start off the season, we all acknowledge that, due to the weaker competition one of either Boston or New York will face in the AL East with the rest of their schedule. Even KC can win 72-76 games this season, especially if they get good pitching from 3 of their five starters.

 

KW simply had to position this ballclub for the present and the future. Iguchi can be replaced, and there's no CERTAINLY no strong majority behind giving Buehrle $48-52 million over four years (health, non-performance) or Jermaine $45 million over 3 years (age, diminishing returns, see Soriano).

 

One of the biggest questions right now surrounds the health of Jenks, but we have to remember we went through three closers in 2005. In MacDougal, Thornton, Masset, Aardsma and Sisco, we have FIVE more pitchers with the "stuff" to do the job. Even Logan can be nasty.

 

There's always a sense that a veteran team might not be hungry enough, that they might get complacent or rest on their laurels (something Buehrle, Uribe and a few others have been accused of specifically, but something that subconsciously happened to much of the team).

 

Realistically, the only way to compete in this division is to have the pitching, and we have four starters who might have pitched the best they are going to pitch in the major leagues. Can Garland get any better than winning 36 games in two years? Can Contreras ever pitch like he did from August, 05 through May, 06, when he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball? Is Buehrle done? Is Vazquez doomed to .500, no matter what team he pitches for?

 

Ultimately, KW had to be prepared to slash payroll and go down into the $75-90 million range again, and risk losing 25% of the season ticket holders gained from 05.

 

He has to look at every player on his roster as an asset that can be used to get the thing that he needs the most....potential #1 and #2 starters, something we might have ZERO of right now.

 

Logically, KW views Danks, Floyd and Russell as potential 1-2 or even 3 starters. You can add Sisco, Thornton and Masset to that list. With the 4-5 starters, you have Broadway, Haeger, Phillips, McCullogh and a few others.

 

It seems most logical to trade Crede, Dye and Buehrle short-term. If we go beyond that in cutting, we won't be able to compete in 2008. Then there's no reason to hold onto AJ, Uribe, Iguchi, Thome, Konerko, Garland, Contreras and Vazquez and we out and get pitching, pitching and MORE young/affordable/talented pitching. Traditionally, one or maybe two of every six pitching prospects makes an impact. If it comes down to it, you trade for Bailey and Hughes and give the Reds and Yankees enough talent to win their divisions, if it means not having to spend $15-25 million per year on top-line starters like Zambrano. Heck, Jennings and Buehrle look like the 2 and 3 options right now going into 2008 Free Agency. Not much to choose from there.

 

Our draft positions haven't allowed us to get that Top 10 pick for almost 20 years now. We have too much talent to bottom out 100%, but we do have a commodity that every team in baseball wants, which is the top 15 players on our major league roster.

Edited March 29, 2007 by caulfield12

[RME JICO]

The odds are against 3 out of 4 AL Central teams making it to the playoffs to start off the season, we all acknowledge that, due to the weaker competition one of either Boston or New York will face in the AL East with the rest of their schedule. Even KC can win 72-76 games this season, especially if they get good pitching from 3 of their five starters.

Isn't it impossible for 3 teams from one division to make the playoffs?

[Hideaway Lights]

there are so many things wrong with this post I don't know where to start

 

for onet thing, equating mark buehrle with "health and non-performance" issues seems thoroughly ludicrous given his track record prior to June 2006.

[GoSox05]

At least he's not already giving up on a season that hasnt started and not whinning about problems that every team in MLB is going through.

[LVSoxFan]

Being a Sox and Chicago sports fan in general, I'm a born pessimist. Scratch that: a trained one.

 

Honestly, I'm not worried about this season. Like I said, we've been awful in ST and that is exactly where I would want them to be awful... when it doesn't count.

 

There's more than a few other AL teams that have issues as well.

 

Nothing counts until Monday, so on that note nothing's going to worry me until Monday.

[The Critic]

Isn't it impossible for 3 teams from one division to make the playoffs?

I took it as "don't count on the Wild Card coming from the Central, so only one team is likely to make the playoffs".

So 3 of the 4 contenders won't make it in his scenario, with only the AL Central champ making it to post-season play.

The wording is a little unusual, but I believe that's the point he's making.

[Balta1701]

So, as far as I can tell, the optimistic post here basically is arguing for that optimism based on the White Sox beginning a successful rebuilding project.

[caulfield12]

there are so many things wrong with this post I don't know where to start

 

for onet thing, equating mark buehrle with "health and non-performance" issues seems thoroughly ludicrous given his track record prior to June 2006.

 

And you don't think it's ludicrous to give Buehrle $12-14 million per season for FOUR years when he's lost velocity on his fastball, hasn't adjusted well to QuesTec and the new strike zone, has struggled twice with tipping pitches (how much of it is mental/psychological?) and we could get 2-3 high quality prospects that cost the league minimum? I think KW is taking all that into consideration. His spring results are not necessarily encouraging either, although it's JUST spring, we all hoped for SOME indication of improvement from him.

 

This club can't afford to have 2-3 bad contracts on the books, which is what KW is guarding against.

Edited March 29, 2007 by caulfield12

[The Ginger Kid]

Lost in the oh-so-important, make-or-break soxtalk saga of Brian Anderson:

 

Joe Crede has had a great spring.

Tad Iguchi finally heated up in the last week or so.

Kong and JD had a very nice spring.

Uribe looks fit and very ready to go. Ozzie says he's the key.

Contreras has consistently said he feels fantastico and looks to be in terrific shape.

Podsednik feels his legs are back and his shoulder problems appear to be gone.

Thome got a ton of bats again this spring in hopes of avoiding the slow start that plagued most of his career until he got to Chicago and they sought to get him more AB's in ST.

Pablo being Pablo.

Our infield defense is f***ing great, particularly late in the game when Erstad moves to first.

 

Of course all this pales in importance compared to who's playing CF. There are more positives to be sure. Top to bottom this is a very solid lineup, on par with Detroit's IMO. But they definitely have the advantage on the bump.

 

[caulfield12]

So, as far as I can tell, the optimistic post here basically is arguing for that optimism based on the White Sox beginning a successful rebuilding project.

 

Yes, and the fact that if those players everyone seems to be complaining about the most (Erstad and Pods) fail to play up to expectations, they will be gone, and Sweeney, Anderson and theoretically Fields or Owens will replace them. Not sure that will make anyone happy either, but it will be a clear and obvious direction at least. How many season ticket holders we lose (25-33%?), that's an issue for KW and JR.

[nitetrain8601]

I'm sorry, I stopped reading when you said Tad Iguchi is replaceable and Buehrle isn't. Right now, it seems like the exact opposite. We have guys in the minors who could somewhat replace Buehrle. We have no one and there's no one in FA who is going to be as good as Iguchi.

[Balta1701]

Yes, and the fact that if those players everyone seems to be complaining about the most (Erstad and Pods) fail to play up to expectations, they will be gone, and Sweeney, Anderson and theoretically Fields or Owens will replace them. Not sure that will make anyone happy either, but it will be a clear and obvious direction at least. How many season ticket holders we lose (25-33%?), that's an issue for KW and JR.

What exactly is it in this team's recent history that suggests that Erstad and Pods will be gone at any point this season if they don't perform?

[caulfield12]

Lost in the oh-so-important, make-or-break soxtalk saga of Brian Anderson:

 

Joe Crede has had a great spring.

Tad Iguchi finally heated up in the last week or so.

Kong and JD had a very nice spring.

Uribe looks fit and very ready to go. Ozzie says he's the key.

Contreras has consistently said he feels fantastico and looks to be in terrific shape.

Podsednik feels his legs are back and his shoulder problems appear to be gone.

Thome got a ton of bats again this spring in hopes of avoiding the slow start that plagued most of his career until he got to Chicago and they sought to get him more AB's in ST.

Pablo being Pablo.

Our infield defense is f***ing great, particularly late in the game when Erstad moves to first.

 

Of course all this pales in importance compared to who's playing CF. There are more positives to be sure. Top to bottom this is a very solid lineup, on par with Detroit's IMO. But they definitely have the advantage on the bump.

 

 

You would think we LOST 90 games last year, instead of winning 90. I think some of the constant local and regional media blitzkrieg has soaked into Sox fans, the pessimism is back in full force. It's almost like we never won a WS.

 

I'm not going to be surprised if they make the playoffs, I won't be surprised if they're around .500 either. This club could go either way.

 

There are many positives with the line-up of everyday players, but the PITCHING concerns are still paramount in everyones' minds, to the point where each member of the rotation and bullpen has more question marks surrounding them coming into the season than "certainty."

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sorry, I stopped reading when you said Tad Iguchi is replaceable and Buehrle isn't. Right now, it seems like the exact opposite. We have guys in the minors who could somewhat replace Buehrle. We have no one and there's no one in FA who is going to be as good as Iguchi.

 

 

Not sure who you're responding to. At any rate, I have never once said Buehrle isn't replaceable.

 

As far as 2B goes, Iguchi, at his age, won't get more than 3 years and $13-16 million. There are a ton of players out there like a Loretta that are comparable.

 

In terms of Free Agents, you have Kent, Marcus Giles, you could move Eckstein from SS to 2B, and you can move Uribe or Cintron or even Ozuna there as well.

 

I really like Iguchi, but he's not a priority for KW to retain if we have to completely rebuild this team.

 

What exactly is it in this team's recent history that suggests that Erstad and Pods will be gone at any point this season if they don't perform?

 

Politte release

 

Development of Anderson (Lofton was dealt in 2002 for Diaz)

 

Takatsu

 

Ben Davis starting 2005 in AAA, eating that contract

 

Koch trade to Marlins

[Kalapse]

You would think we LOST 90 games last year, instead of winning 90. I think some of the constant local and regional media blitzkrieg has soaked into Sox fans, the pessimism is back in full force. It's almost like we never won a WS.

 

I'm not going to be surprised if they make the playoffs, I won't be surprised if they're around .500 either. This club could go either way.

 

There are many positives with the line-up of everyday players, but the PITCHING concerns are still paramount in everyones' minds, to the point where each member of the rotation and bullpen has more question marks surrounding them coming into the season than "certainty."

Not sure who you're responding to. At any rate, I have never once said Buehrle isn't replaceable.

 

As far as 2B goes, Iguchi, at his age, won't get more than 3 years and $13-16 million. There are a ton of players out there like a Loretta that are comparable.

 

In terms of Free Agents, you have Kent, Marcus Giles, you could move Eckstein from SS to 2B, and you can move Uribe or Cintron or even Ozuna there as well.

 

I really like Iguchi, but he's not a priority for KW to retain if we have to completely rebuild this team.

Politte release

Marcus Giles will not see free agency after '07 the guy has an incredibly affordable team option and if he's even decent next year they'll pick that up. David Eckstein is a pretty terrible baseball player and will probably be re-signed by the Cardinals, even if he's not he's going to make the same money as Iguchi so that swap would make no sense. If they're not willing to pay Iguchi $4-$5M a year then I don't see why they'd give that asshole Kent $7-$8M to spend half the season on the DL and tear apart the clubhouse.

[fathom]

I can only imagine a team with Eckstein and Erstad as the 1-2 hitters. Grinders!

[Kalapse]

I can only imagine a team with Eckstein and Erstad as the 1-2 hitters. Grinders!

A combined .300 OBP at the top of your order but more hustle and tenacity than you can shake a stick at.

[caulfield12]

I can only imagine a team with Eckstein and Erstad as the 1-2 hitters. Grinders!

 

Well, maybe we should just bring back Miles and Harris and pair them up.

 

You would have thought JC had been re-crucified when that trade for Uribe went down, with the loyalty some of the minor league fans had to Aaron. That deal seemed to work out okay for the Sox.

 

Long-term, I think they REALLY like Shelby at 2B, possibly Getz, although he profiles more as a utility guy if he ever makes it to the majors (similar to Angel Gonzalez and Pedro Lopez).

[fathom]

Well, maybe we should just bring back Miles and Harris and pair them up.

 

You would have thought JC had been re-crucified when that trade for Uribe went down, with the loyalty some of the minor league fans had to Aaron. That deal seemed to work out okay for the Sox.

 

Long-term, I think they REALLY like Shelby at 2B, possibly Getz, although he profiles more as a utility guy if he ever makes it to the majors (similar to Angel Gonzalez and Pedro Lopez).

 

There were people upset with the Uribe/Miles trade? If so....then that's just too many people putting too much stock in minor league numbers.

[caulfield12]

There were people upset with the Uribe/Miles trade? If so....then that's just too many people putting too much stock in minor league numbers.

 

At the time of the trade, I would say it was 75% upset at losing Miles, 25% excited that Uribe could get it turned around with a change of scenery and a coaching staff and clubhouse that might push him to improve his work habits.

[The Ginger Kid]

David Eckstein is a pretty terrible baseball player

 

 

...yet somehow wins the MVP in the world series.

 

too funny.

[RME JICO]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but I was surprised to see Erstad's success against AL Central pitching for his career:

 

vs Sabathia 7-21, .333BA, .364OBP

vs Byrd 4-13, .308BA, .357OBP

vs Westbrook 6-14, .429BA, .429OBP

vs Rogers 25-80, .313BA, .360OBP

vs Bonderman 5-11, .455BA, .500OBP

vs Robertson 3-9, .333BA, .400OBP

vs Santana 8-29, .276BA, .276OBP

vs Silva 9-22, .409BA, .409OBP

 

If he could even put up numbers close to that, the Sox will be in good shape.

[Kalapse]

...yet somehow wins the MVP in the world series.

 

too funny.

Yeah, kind of like Scott Brosius and Pat Borders. Name me a few of Eckstein's redeeming qualities. Just curious.

[The Ginger Kid]

Yeah, kind of like Scott Brosius and Pat Borders. Name me a few of Eckstein's redeeming qualities. Just curious.

defense, batter's eye, hustle, two world series rings.

 

And I wouldn't call Brosius or Borders "terrible baseball players" either.

 

I don't know if this has been posted before, but I was surprised to see Erstad's success against AL Central pitching for his career:

 

vs Sabathia 7-21, .333BA, .364OBP

vs Byrd 4-13, .308BA, .357OBP

vs Westbrook 6-14, .429BA, .429OBP

vs Rogers 25-80, .313BA, .360OBP

vs Bonderman 5-11, .455BA, .500OBP

vs Robertson 3-9, .333BA, .400OBP

vs Santana 8-29, .276BA, .276OBP

vs Silva 9-22, .409BA, .409OBP

 

If he could even put up numbers close to that, the Sox will be in good shape.

 

Anderson's still better

[Kalapse]

I don't know if this has been posted before, but I was surprised to see Erstad's success against AL Central pitching for his career:

 

vs Sabathia 7-21, .333BA, .364OBP

vs Byrd 4-13, .308BA, .357OBP

vs Westbrook 6-14, .429BA, .429OBP

vs Rogers 25-80, .313BA, .360OBP

vs Bonderman 5-11, .455BA, .500OBP

vs Robertson 3-9, .333BA, .400OBP

vs Santana 8-29, .276BA, .276OBP

vs Silva 9-22, .409BA, .409OBP

 

If he could even put up numbers close to that, the Sox will be in good shape.

We can only hope, I wouldn't count on it though considering the age and major league experience of most of those pitchers as well as the fact that Erstad has found himself on the DL quite often over the past few seasons I'd venture to guess that most of that success came early in the pitcher's career.

[Balta1701]

defense, batter's eye, hustle, two world series rings.

 

And I wouldn't call Brosius or Borders "terrible baseball players" either.

They're not terrible ballplayers, but you can only have so many guys like that on a team before you start lacking in production.

 

David Eckstein is exactly what the Caridinals need...a cheap, non-terrible SS who's attitude they like. But if you start thinking that the only thing your team needs is more hustle...and forget that they have a couple guys, one of whom wears #5, that produce a hell of a lot of runs and can cover up for the deficiencies in other spots, then you're going to build a pretty crappy team.