Baseball Prospectus power rankings

[mshugrue1323]

i dont know if i can ever respect these people again. some stupid formula says the white sox are the 27th best team in the league. the only teams ranked lower are the reds, nats, and royals. even with the worst case senario we can never be worse than the devil rays or pirates or some of these other teams. this is ridiculous. heres the site for those of you who want a good laugh.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6052

[Flash Tizzle]

These rankings are based upon PECOTA's predictions. I believe many, including the Baseball Prospectus staff, wouldn't take a bet of 72 wins for this ballclub.

 

I wouldn't be too concerned. Power rankings, by nature, fluctuate throughout the season. Enter next week 3-3 or 4-2 and the White Sox could easily leap 15 positions.

[iamshack]

Well hey, at least they are expecting an onslaught from White Sox fans here....they do raise some valid points, however. Nonetheless, did this team not win 56 games in the first half with Pods and BA in the lineup and struggling, to go along with some rather mediocre pitching performances from Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland (really struggled in the first months of the season), and Javy Vazquez.

 

The bottom line is we need to score runs, that's for sure, but we do need to see Jose and Mark rebound from their 06' second halves.

 

These rankings are based upon PECOTA's predictions. I believe many, including the Baseball Prospectus staff, wouldn't take a bet of 72 wins for this ballclub.

 

I wouldn't be too concerned. Power rankings, by nature, fluctuate throughout the season. Enter next week 3-3 or 4-2 and the White Sox could easily leap 15 positions.

 

Indeed, they say they would feel comfortable taking the over on us, but nonetheless, it's moreso of an escape hatch for when the team proves PECOTA to be nonsense yet again.

[BearSox]

Baseball prospectus and PECOTA are the devil.

[Chisoxfn]

I am not a fan of baseball prospectus. In fact, I think it is one of the most over-rated publications out there.

[BearSox]

I am not a fan of baseball prospectus. In fact, I think it is one of the most over-rated publications out there.

You have no idea how much I like you right now...

[Flash Tizzle]

I am not a fan of baseball prospectus. In fact, I think it is one of the most over-rated publications out there.

Uh, shouldn't you be completing the Top 25 about now?

[SABR Sox]

I think PECOTA is overrating the age-factor here a bit too much.

 

This is probably the main reason as to why the Sox are projected to finish 72-90.

 

You have Thome finishing with less than 30 homers, J.D. losing about 3 wins with bat alone, Crede taking a huge step back too.

 

They rave about have the "old-ness" of Thome, Contreras, Dye, etc. is going to catch up to them this year and how we'll see massive declines.

 

I forsee declines, especially in the cases of Thome and Dye, but not to PECOTA's extent.

 

Another thing that bugged me a bit was the projection of some of our BP guys.

 

Aardsma, Sisco, Masset, the new young guns we acquired have terrible projections, but I tend to stick with the scouts opinion on this one.

 

While nither of those guys have had great statistical track records they are young and have potential. I think we'll see better out of out 'pen that PECOTA projects.

 

Overall, I'd be willing to bet we win at least 6 or 7 more games. Anything more and you might be pushing it.

 

I like us, but not that much.

Edited April 4, 2007 by SABR Sox

[RME JICO]

I think PECOTA is overrating the age-factor here a bit too much.

 

You have Thome finishing with less than 30 homers, J.D. losing about 3 wins with bat alone, Crede taking a huge step back too.

 

They rave about have the "old-ness" of Thome, Contreras, Dye, etc. is going to catch up to them this year and how we'll see massive declines.

 

I forsee declines, especially in the cases of Thome and Dye, but not to PECOTA's extent.

What surprises me about Thome is if you look at his last two full years (2006 and 2004), they are nearly identical.

 

(2006 and 2004)

Games - 143 and 143

ABs - 490 and 509

Runs - 108 and 97

Hits - 141 and 139

2B - 26 and 28

HR - 42 and 42

RBI - 109 and 105

BB - 107 and 104

K - 147 and 144

AVG - .288 and .274

OBP - .416 and .396

SLG - .598 and .581

 

I would think it would be an easier projection to just average these two and then decrease the value by a few for age:

 

Games - 141

ABs - 484

Runs - 99

Hits - 137

2B - 24

HR - 39

RBI - 104

BB - 103

K - 146

AVG - .280

OBP - .405

SLG - .588

Edited April 4, 2007 by RME JICO

[alk3kevin]

BP is a fantastic publication. If you read what they've written about the Sox, they too don't buy into what PECOTA projects.

 

Here's a quote from Kevin Goldstein in an article about the White Sox-

"PECOTA's current prediction is for the team to go 72-90, as the system expects an already old team to get a little bit older, and therefore more than a little bit worse. But a quick look at what went wrong in 2006 shows that in reality they only have to improve on one side of the field in order to get back to the caliber level of play from 2005. The key, as is often the case, is pitching."

[RME JICO]

BP does a better job at taking a look back than they do at taking a look forward.

 

For the Sox, it looks like most of these low predictions took their 2nd half of last year and doubled it for an entire year. If the Sox did do that for an entire year, they would lose 90 games.