caulfield12 Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 2007 PECOTA Projections: 11-11, 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 148 K's One of only two thirtysomethings on the list, Vazquez, 30, is coming off of his second straight season of at least a 3:1 K/BB, a key performance indicator. Vazquez annually posts higher ERAs than his peripheral stats indicate, in part due to pitching in some tough parks, such as Chase Field and U.S. Cellular. Despite this,he has improved in both years since his difficult season with the Yankees in 2004. from cnnsi.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 11 - 11 with a 4.5 era 1.31 whip some breakout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearSox Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 ??? That doesn't seem like a breakout season to me.. Are they just showing the PECOTA predictions, and how they would assess their scouting to PECOTA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 That projection takes him from a bad pitcher to a mediocre or slightly above mediocre pitcher. That does seem like a small breakout to me. Beyond that, they call John Lackey a breakout candiate, and his PECOTA numbers are a regression from his numbers last year. So yeah, they're saying he's a guy who could breakout and have a great season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 Yet again why I think BP is terrible. How is John lackey a breakout candidate. Last I looked he's the ace of the Angels and has been ever since Colon went down (and some would say he's been it even before than). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkfan Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Apr 7, 2007 -> 05:42 AM) Yet again why I think BP is terrible. How is John lackey a breakout candidate. Last I looked he's the ace of the Angels and has been ever since Colon went down (and some would say he's been it even before than). He is the ace but hes never won more than 14 games i think. And i know hes had really great numbers besides that but maybe thats what they're talkin about. Personally i don't like him, i hope he dies like a dog this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 QUOTE(Chisoxfn @ Apr 7, 2007 -> 12:42 AM) Yet again why I think BP is terrible. How is John lackey a breakout candidate. Last I looked he's the ace of the Angels and has been ever since Colon went down (and some would say he's been it even before than). I think they may be talking about staff ace to top 5-7 pitcher in the majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoota Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 Well he's been looking good today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 need about 32 more just like that one Javy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted April 7, 2007 Author Share Posted April 7, 2007 QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Apr 7, 2007 -> 01:59 PM) I think they may be talking about staff ace to top 5-7 pitcher in the majors. I don't know what kind of top pitcher is projected to have a 4.50 ERA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Spencer Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 I sure hope this is his breakout year I know one thing: He sure looked good today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted April 7, 2007 Author Share Posted April 7, 2007 QUOTE(Jim Spencer @ Apr 7, 2007 -> 06:41 PM) I sure hope this is his breakout year I know one thing: He sure looked good today Thanks to Torii Hunter and Mike Cuddyer for making things easier today. It was also nice to see Ozzie go against the grain and show confidence in Thornton, despite his blowing two leads in the span of one week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted April 7, 2007 Share Posted April 7, 2007 QUOTE(caulfield12 @ Apr 7, 2007 -> 06:39 PM) I don't know what kind of top pitcher is projected to have a 4.50 ERA. Lackey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackie hayes Posted April 8, 2007 Share Posted April 8, 2007 PECOTA will never project a breakout season. It's basically an average of past performance (but using information in peripheral stats). A breakout season is by definition a surprise, a "break" from past performance. The PECOTA projection given there is not meant to represent a breakout season, but the probability-weighted average of possible performances. Saying he's a breakout candidate means those great performances that would represent a breakout have relatively high probability. Suppose Garland had a similar PECOTA projection, for example. (It's actually a little worse, but just suppose.) He still wouldn't be considered a breakout candidate, because true dominance usually requires (for one) a higher strikeout rate. Jon might have a similar average projection, but the range of performances would be a little more closely packed around that average line. Just to emphasize that the PECOTA line and the 'potential breakout' label aren't the same thing. And how awesome it's gonna be when Javy picks up that Cy Young. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted April 8, 2007 Author Share Posted April 8, 2007 QUOTE(jackie hayes @ Apr 7, 2007 -> 07:14 PM) PECOTA will never project a breakout season. It's basically an average of past performance (but using information in peripheral stats). A breakout season is by definition a surprise, a "break" from past performance. The PECOTA projection given there is not meant to represent a breakout season, but the probability-weighted average of possible performances. Saying he's a breakout candidate means those great performances that would represent a breakout have relatively high probability. Suppose Garland had a similar PECOTA projection, for example. (It's actually a little worse, but just suppose.) He still wouldn't be considered a breakout candidate, because true dominance usually requires (for one) a higher strikeout rate. Jon might have a similar average projection, but the range of performances would be a little more closely packed around that average line. Just to emphasize that the PECOTA line and the 'potential breakout' label aren't the same thing. And how awesome it's gonna be when Javy picks up that Cy Young. I'll take 15 wins and an ERA below 4.00 and go from there with the rest of the rotation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 10, 2007 Share Posted April 10, 2007 QUOTE(caulfield12 @ Apr 7, 2007 -> 07:18 PM) I'll take 15 wins and an ERA below 4.00 and go from there with the rest of the rotation. Any pitcher on this staff with an era under 4.00 will win at least 15 games, and probably more like 20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted April 10, 2007 Share Posted April 10, 2007 QUOTE(hi8is @ Apr 6, 2007 -> 11:18 PM) 11 - 11 with a 4.5 era 1.31 whip some breakout That's what I'm thinking... wtf? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted April 10, 2007 Author Share Posted April 10, 2007 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Apr 10, 2007 -> 08:52 AM) Any pitcher on this staff with an era under 4.00 will win at least 15 games, and probably more like 20. With this Sox offense, sure....but remember Roger Clemens the last couple of seasons in HOU? I think the White Sox led the league in pitching in 1993 (all their starters were below 4.00) and I don't think any of the starters won 20. Also, our bullpen is more than capable of blowing a few wins for the starters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 10, 2007 Share Posted April 10, 2007 QUOTE(caulfield12 @ Apr 10, 2007 -> 10:02 AM) With this Sox offense, sure....but remember Roger Clemens the last couple of seasons in HOU? I think the White Sox led the league in pitching in 1993 (all their starters were below 4.00) and I don't think any of the starters won 20. Also, our bullpen is more than capable of blowing a few wins for the starters. Well of course I am basing this on the Sox offense... That's who supports our pitchers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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