Erstad/Anderson MEGAThread

[alk3kevin]

Erstad would be the worst corner OF in the history of the game.

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Apr 24, 2007 -> 01:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, damn those homers. We need more hitting to the right side, more 4-3 putouts. I'll give you that -- Erstad is AWESOME at those.

 

I'll answer the question that you've wanted answered, ie why should Anderson start over Erstad. Here are my reasons -- whether or not you choose to 'accept' them is your call.

 

a.) Young players tend to improve, old players (over 32) tend to decline. This is a general rule of thumb. I look at Erstad and Andersonand see two players who, if both (hypothetically) given the exact same number of at-bats, would probably put up similar numbers. Anderson would hit for more power, Erstad would hit for higher average. The difference, of course, is that if Anderson were our everyday CFer, he'd be hitting ninth, rather than first. And nine times out of ten, I'm going with the younger player.

 

b.) This offseason is a big winter, one where there are TWO clear CF upgrades on the market in Ichiro! and Andruw Jones. KW has expressed interest in Jones in the past (almost traded Maggs for him and maybe Russ Ortiz, IIRC). Ichiro! is obvious -- I think that the drooling over Erstad is bad, but the drooling over Ichiro! would be ten times worse. At least he's a good player, though.

 

Anyways -- if the Sox were to give Anderson 450-500 ABs this season, he would have close to 1000 ABs at the major league level. At that point, I think it would be fair to make a decision on Anderson's future as a White Sock.

 

c.) This doesn't address the question, but you say that Anderson looks overmatched. He was told prior to Spring Training -- or at least, this was said in the papers -- that he would 'compete' for the CF spot. He outplayed Erstad in Spring Training, with a similar batting average but much better OBP and SLG% numbers. Anderson looked decent in Spring Training, and has since been relegated to the bench.

 

d.) In Erstad's last 150 (ish) ABs, he's putting up a line right around .215/.270/.310. Slice it any way you want -- that's not good. That's worse than Anderon last year -- much worse, in fact, and that's hard to do.

 

a.) they tend to improve according to their abilties. You are assuming that Anderson has more ability than Erstad, or at least the same. I don't see that. I don't see him as anything more than a good defensive player.

 

b.) I agree get Andruw Jones if Atlanta doesn't re-sign him.

 

c.) Maybe he was told that before they acquired Erstad. Erstad needs time to get back into form since he was off the entire year last year, for the most part.

 

d.) I don't count spring training ABs. I don't know why you do. His ABs this regular season compare to what BA did at this point last season. Erstad has proved that, when healthy, he can play in the majors - that includes offensively and defensively. Anderson has not. I will take the proven veteran over the proven sucky young player with little upside every time.

 

 

 

QUOTE(Craig Grebeck @ Apr 24, 2007 -> 01:15 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Erstad would be the worst corner OF in the history of the game.

 

 

what? Worse than Scott Podsednik? Wow!

 

 

 

 

 

QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Apr 24, 2007 -> 12:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

BA Post-ASB:

 

.257/.301/.393/.694

 

Any reason he can't duplicate his own numbers from last year with more experience?

 

For s***s and giggles, here's what he did last year with a man on 3rd, less than 2 outs:

.353/.391/.588/.979

 

"Close and late"

.256/.304/.372/.676

 

2nd and 3rd

.500/.538/.900/1.438

 

That's nice. Anyone can pull stats on any player in a given situation to make a case for them. You can skew the stats anyway you like. That's great.

Edited April 24, 2007 by southsideirish

[ScottyDo]

Erstad would be the worst corner OF in the history of the game.

i dunno, what about podsednik?

[CWSGuy406]

a.) they tend to improve according to their abilties. You are assuming that Anderson has more ability than Erstad, or at least the same. I don't see that. I don't see him as anything more than a good defensive player.

 

Anderson was a first round pick. Anderson had a minor league OPS of .861.

 

Now you're questioning Kenny Williams, too, BTW. Kenny Williams traded Chris Young because he was sooooo confident in Brian Anderson. The talent is there, that's obvious to anyone. Talent to become an All-Star? Probably not. But talent to become a .260/.330/.430 (pessimistic ceiling, BTW) player, which, combined with his defense, would be fine.

 

c.) Maybe he was told that before they acquired Erstad. Erstad needs time to get back into form since he was off the entire year last year, for the most part.

 

Oh, okay, so Erstad gets excuses for why he's been a heaping pile of suck so far this year. You just let me know when poor Darin has had enough time to get nice and comfy.

 

d.) I don't count spring training ABs. I don't know why you do. His ABs this regular season compare to what BA did at this point last season.

 

Spring Training numbers mean little to nothing to me. Ozzie said the CF job would be on the line. It clearly wasn't, because if it was, Anderson would be playing every day right now seeing that he was the better baseball player in ST.

 

What have you been watching? Erstad so far this season has been MUCH worse than Anderson's full season last year. For God's sakes his OPS+ coming into today was 39.

 

Erstad has proved that, when healthy, he can play in the majors - that includes offensively and defensively.

 

You're right -- he proved this 700 ABs ago. Since then... not so much.

[DBAHO]

Just going to go off topic here for a minute, if we signed Ichiro does he play in LF or in CF for you (which he's doing this season for the Mariners)?

 

What do you do with Pods? Do you let him go, move Erstad over, or give Sweeney the LF job? What about Josh Fields? Do you let him start in LF or do you trade Joe Crede to open up 3B for Fields?

 

When it's all said and done, unless Darin Erstad can produce a +.750OPS, I think we're going outside the organization to address this LF/CF need that we're having.

[StrangeSox]

That's nice. Anyone can pull stats on any player in a given situation to make a case for them. You can skew the stats anyway you like. That's great.

 

 

I found some interesting stats while looking up his post-ASB stats that showed he hit well in some RBI situations.

 

And post-ASB isn't cherry-picking or skewing stats. Its looking for improvement in the second half of a rookie season.

[TheHolyBovine]

I need to spell out the problem for some of you:

 

Pods, Erstad, and Anderson don't hit very well. Two of them (Pods and Erstad) never will again because of their age, and Anderson has about an 18% chance of becoming mediocre. Arguing about whether Erstad or Anderson should start is missing the point, IMO. Neither of them should be starting on a championshp team, and Pods wouldn't be a very useful player unless he hit .330.

 

I love KW, and I like the offseason moves he made. I agreed with his return on Garcia and McCarthy, and he did a nice job revamping the bullpen.

 

However, KW's #1 priority this offseason was to add a legit outfield bat. The logical assumption was that he would add a LF. Well, he didn't. He resigned Pods. That's ok if you sign Pods below market value (which he did). The problem is that if you resign Pods, you MUST then upgrade at CF. I thnk it was proven beyond a doubt last year that Pods and Anderson cannot be in the same lineup without significantly diminishing the number of runs a team could potentially score. The only thing worse than an OF that includes Pods and Anderson is an OF that includes Pods and Erstad. Erstad wasn't really very good when he was good, which was a long time ago. The signing of Erstad as a potential starter is inexcusable; he should only be a 5th OF at this point, and really...why would you want him for that role? Not only is Erstad useless as a player, but he compounds, magnifies, and duplicates the original problem -- KW did not upgrade at LF.

 

And I'm not talking about getting Carl Crawford, either. A guy like Scott Hairston could have been had for nothing this offseason...Maybe he still could, I don't know. KW will do something, I just hope it's soon. It doesn't take much to improve from the offensive production of Pods or Erstad.

 

Just going to go off topic here for a minute, if we signed Ichiro does he play in LF or in CF for you (which he's doing this season for the Mariners)?

 

What do you do with Pods? Do you let him go, move Erstad over, or give Sweeney the LF job? What about Josh Fields? Do you let him start in LF or do you trade Joe Crede to open up 3B for Fields?

 

When it's all said and done, unless Darin Erstad can produce a +.750OPS, I think we're going outside the organization to address this LF/CF need that we're having.

 

 

 

Neither Pods nor Erstad will be wearing a CWS uniform in 2008.

[witesoxfan]

If you think he can then you hold Anderson in a much higher regard than I do. Regardless of what Erstad does this season I think they will get a CFer next year. They LOVE Andruw Jones and I think they will pay him if he doesn't re-sign with Atlanta. They will go after him pretty good. Erstad could then play LF next year if his option is picked up. I don't want them to have to go after a CFer this year. I don't even know who would be available that I would want. I would rather have Philly continue to struggle so we could try to pry Jimmy Rollins away from them. I don't know what they would want but I would like to have him on the White Sox.

 

Jones would be fine. And if Erstad's a corner OFer next year, I'm gonna puke. I would be perfectly content with Sweeney coming up and being mediocre in LF because he's young and he's going to be a good hitter. Erstad's not a guy you can count on 2 years from now to even be in baseball.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

BA Post-ASB:

 

.257/.301/.393/.694

 

Any reason he can't duplicate his own numbers from last year with more experience?

 

For s***s and giggles, here's what he did last year with a man on 3rd, less than 2 outs:

.353/.391/.588/.979

 

"Close and late"

.256/.304/.372/.676

 

2nd and 3rd

.500/.538/.900/1.438

 

I've been asking for those "close and late" stats for weeks. What are the raw numbers, and what site is that information found?

[witesoxfan]

I've been asking for those "close and late" stats for weeks. What are the raw numbers, and what site is that information found?

 

Here's Thome

 

Late & Close are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.

[Texsox]

With guys off to slow starts all over this lineup, at least we have one position that there is controversy.

[beck72]

A huge component missing from the BA/ Erstad debate has to do with how the sox roster is currently constructed, esp the pitching and the type of hitters the sox have. The sox are built around having the SP's going to the 6th, 7th inning with the game close, and the bullpen then takes over to keep the score as it is. With the game either tied or within a run a two, the sox want more consistency or predictability from their offense to compliment the power bats they have. Consistency to me means having guys who can work counts, put the ball in play, manufacture runs through bunts, hitting the opposite way, making productive outs, and who can run the bases. For all the small ball talk, the sox are very reliant on the 3 run homer. IMO, the sox need a guy who can do the little things Erstad does. He compliments the 3-7 hitters [Thome, PK, Dye, Crede and AJ] rather nicely.

 

BA isn't likely to give the sox, this year, the "consistency" as I defined above. Even though he has a higher ceiling than Erstad. The debate isn't who will be the better player in a year or two. Or who has more talent or baseball tools. BA wins that debate. It's who gives the sox the best chance of winning on a daily basis, with the roster as is. Ozzie certainly thinks it's Erstad. I agree.

[caulfield12]

I need to spell out the problem for some of you:

 

Pods, Erstad, and Anderson don't hit very well. Two of them (Pods and Erstad) never will again because of their age, and Anderson has about an 18% chance of becoming mediocre. Arguing about whether Erstad or Anderson should start is missing the point, IMO. Neither of them should be starting on a championshp team, and Pods wouldn't be a very useful player unless he hit .330.

 

I love KW, and I like the offseason moves he made. I agreed with his return on Garcia and McCarthy, and he did a nice job revamping the bullpen.

 

However, KW's #1 priority this offseason was to add a legit outfield bat. The logical assumption was that he would add a LF. Well, he didn't. He resigned Pods. That's ok if you sign Pods below market value (which he did). The problem is that if you resign Pods, you MUST then upgrade at CF. I thnk it was proven beyond a doubt last year that Pods and Anderson cannot be in the same lineup without significantly diminishing the number of runs a team could potentially score. The only thing worse than an OF that includes Pods and Anderson is an OF that includes Pods and Erstad. Erstad wasn't really very good when he was good, which was a long time ago. The signing of Erstad as a potential starter is inexcusable; he should only be a 5th OF at this point, and really...why would you want him for that role? Not only is Erstad useless as a player, but he compounds, magnifies, and duplicates the original problem -- KW did not upgrade at LF.

 

And I'm not talking about getting Carl Crawford, either. A guy like Scott Hairston could have been had for nothing this offseason...Maybe he still could, I don't know. KW will do something, I just hope it's soon. It doesn't take much to improve from the offensive production of Pods or Erstad.

Neither Pods nor Erstad will be wearing a CWS uniform in 2008.

 

Well, Iguchi is useless to the White Sox too, because his composite 05/06 line is similar to Erstad from 2001 through 2005, not counting the lost 06 season.

 

In fact, most SABR people would say Erstad and Rowand are indistinguishable (except for the K's and Darin having more SB's and playing BETTER defense), and we won with Rowand in CF and Uribe at SS, something I wouldn't have believed possible.

 

We're going to score our runs with the middle of our line-up...and it doesn't matter who you play in LF, as long as they have at least a .320 OBP.

 

The main thing that matters is having a pitching staff with a sub 4.00 ERA. If we do that, it won't matter who is in CF.

 

Signing Roberts, Pierre and Matthews would have been stupid. KW is not stupid. Just as he will not spend the type of money the Cubs did for Soriano to get Andruw Jones, who almost every single GM covets MORE than Soriano. The White Sox will not give him a 5-6 year deal, same with Ichiro. The only player I see them taking a chance on is Hunter, if he breaks down this season and KW can put together an incentives-based deal like he did with Erstad, although he would have to guarantee $5-6-7 million no matter what, probably more. And Hunter strikes out too much and is on the downside of his career, so I don't think he goes this direction either.

[caulfield12]

Which is exactly the problem alot of us have. Anderson got just under 400 AB's last season. A good amount, but a young player needs more. At least give Anderson a chance to fail. Right now, he isn't even getting a shot, and right now, it looks like he probably wont again with this organization, which is a shame.

 

 

The only thing the organization cares about is who gives us the better shot to win THIS year. There will be plenty of time for BA to play next year if DE doesn't work out and the Sox miss the playoffs again.

Edited April 24, 2007 by caulfield12

[southsideirish]

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Apr 24, 2007 -> 01:24 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Anderson was a first round pick. Anderson had a minor league OPS of .861.

 

Now you're questioning Kenny Williams, too, BTW. Kenny Williams traded Chris Young because he was sooooo confident in Brian Anderson. The talent is there, that's obvious to anyone. Talent to become an All-Star? Probably not. But talent to become a .260/.330/.430 (pessimistic ceiling, BTW) player, which, combined with his defense, would be fine.

 

 

 

Oh, okay, so Erstad gets excuses for why he's been a heaping pile of suck so far this year. You just let me know when poor Darin has had enough time to get nice and comfy.

 

 

 

Spring Training numbers mean little to nothing to me. Ozzie said the CF job would be on the line. It clearly wasn't, because if it was, Anderson would be playing every day right now seeing that he was the better baseball player in ST.

 

What have you been watching? Erstad so far this season has been MUCH worse than Anderson's full season last year. For God's sakes his OPS+ coming into today was 39.

 

 

 

You're right -- he proved this 700 ABs ago. Since then... not so much.

 

In this case KW was wrong. In my eyes.

 

We will now by June.

 

I would like to see that quote by Ozzie.

 

Erstad's April is equal to Anderson's April of last year and Erstad has not played in about a year. If he is still hitting this way by the end of June I will be shocked. If Anderson was I would be like, oh well, we knew what we were getting.

 

If Anderson could duplicate Erstad's complete healthy years it would be great. I don't think he ever will. I don't think he has the ability to. I don't know what you see in Anderson to even give him a chance. Did you like McCarthy when you had him as well? I didn't and I was glad to see him go.

[southsider2k5]

One interesting thing I caught the other day in the Sunday Trib, which I haven't yet seen mentioned is that Ozzie seems to be happy enough with Logan that he is talking about carrying 12 pitchers again when Podsednik gets back. That logically would mean a bus ticket for Brian Anderson, but that remains to be seen.

[caulfield12]

One interesting thing I caught the other day in the Sunday Trib, which I haven't yet seen mentioned is that Ozzie seems to be happy enough with Logan that he is talking about carrying 12 pitchers again when Podsednik gets back. That logically would mean a bus ticket for Brian Anderson, but that remains to be seen.

 

 

Under KW, only Rowand and Crede have come up and become regular MLB players (over a 5-6 year time span), and neither of these guys was ready to be a regular player when they came up, taking 2-3 years to come into their own.

 

The reality is that the White Sox don't feel they have the luxury to be patient with BA (after last year, not when they're in a "win now" mode with 3 other teams breathing down their necks)...just like they couldn't be patient with Joe Borchard and let him struggle for 2-3 months like Anderson did.

[StrangeSox]

I've been asking for those "close and late" stats for weeks. What are the raw numbers, and what site is that information found?

 

ESPN's splits.

 

I need to spell out the problem for some of you:

 

Pods, Erstad, and Anderson don't hit very well. Two of them (Pods and Erstad) never will again because of their age, and Anderson has about an 18% chance of becoming mediocre. Arguing about whether Erstad or Anderson should start is missing the point, IMO. Neither of them should be starting on a championshp team, and Pods wouldn't be a very useful player unless he hit .330.

 

I think you're missing the point that, barring a big mid-season trade, we're stuck with these players.

 

I agree that KW sort of dropped the ball with the OF this offseason, but the roster is what it is.

 

 

FWIW, Brian's OBP is actually higher than Erstad's THIS year.

[caulfield12]

ESPN's splits.

I think you're missing the point that, barring a big mid-season trade, we're stuck with these players.

 

I agree that KW sort of dropped the ball with the OF this offseason, but the roster is what it is.

 

 

KW didn't drop the ball. If he had done nothing besides going into the season with Anderson and Terrero and a prayer, THAT would be dropping the ball. At the same time, he ensured that Pods would have a back-up in Mackowiak not playing out of position, instead of having to play Mack in CF.

 

You might not like Erstad, but getting him for $1 milllion is almost as big of a bargain as Dye's contract. We could be getting worse production from Dave Roberts and be stuck paying him $18 million for three years just as easily. There wasn't much out there, would anyone be happy with Preston Wilson's defense and overrated bat in CF instead?

 

I really think we get too emotionally invested in some of the White Sox position prospects because we want so badly for them to become a legit, home-grown star. We haven't had any since Crede, Maggs and C-Lee.

Unfortunately, I don't think BA will be one, and I don't hold KW's acquisition of Erstad against Darin, like some seem to.

 

Ozzie and KW have both answered questions on this topic in recent days, it's just that many posters here disagree with them. That's all fine and good, we're all entitled to our opinions, but I guarantee Ozzie is not sitting in the hotel room right now worried about Erstad's OBP or OPS.

 

 

 

ESPN's splits.

I think you're missing the point that, barring a big mid-season trade, we're stuck with these players.

 

I agree that KW sort of dropped the ball with the OF this offseason, but the roster is what it is.

FWIW, Brian's OBP is actually higher than Erstad's THIS year.

 

There's no reason to talk about BA (from a statistical analysis POV) if he has less than 50 or even 100 at-bats.

Edited April 24, 2007 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

KW didn't drop the ball. If he had done nothing besides going into the season with Anderson and Terrero and a prayer, THAT would be dropping the ball. At the same time, he ensured that Pods would have a back-up in Mackowiak not playing out of position, instead of having to play Mack in CF.

 

You might not like Erstad, but getting him for $1 milllion is almost as big of a bargain as Dye's contract. We could be getting worse production from Dave Roberts and be stuck paying him $18 million for three years just as easily. There wasn't much out there, would anyone be happy with Preston Wilson's defense and overrated bat in CF instead?

 

If he gets 600 AB's, doesn't he have a clause in the contract that kicks in for $6 million?

[southsider2k5]

There's no reason to talk about BA (from a statistical analysis POV) if he has less than 50 or even 100 at-bats.

 

No one on the Sox, or probably any of MLB has 100 ABs yet.

[StrangeSox]

There's no reason to talk about BA (from a statistical analysis POV) if he has less than 50 or even 100 at-bats.

So we can bring his statistics in once we're 90 games into the season?

 

I know, there were just some other people using his 9AB's to say he sucked and could never be as good as GRINDERSTAD!

[caulfield12]

If he gets 600 AB's, doesn't he have a clause in the contract that kicks in for $6 million?

 

 

Yes, which is a lot better than guaranteeing $18 million to an older player IMO.

 

And he has to earn his 600 at-bats, and to do so, he would have to be healthy nearly the entire season. If he's healthy, he's proven that he can be a significant contributor to a playoff-caliber baseball team.

[tealeafreaderii]

Yet Kenny Williams saw something in him to give him a chance. He saw enough in him to not only trade his starting CF in Rowand, but what looked to be a can't miss prospect in Young, in the same off-season.

 

Is it possible he just wanted to upgrade DH and pitching and centerfield just happened to be the assets available? If he could keep Young and move anderson for vasquez... I'm pretty sure he would have done that. How do you know KW wasn't panning to have a stop gap for 2 years untill Ichiro and Jones hit the market?

[Jimbo's Drinker]

Is it possible he just wanted to upgrade DH and pitching and centerfield just happened to be the assets available? If he could keep Young and move anderson for vasquez... I'm pretty sure he would have done that. How do you know KW wasn't panning to have a stop gap for 2 years untill Ichiro and Jones hit the market?

 

 

There is no way we pay fro either Jones or Ichiro, no point in discussing.